陕西农村居民消费结构研究
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摘要
在经历了2008年的世界金融危机和2009年的欧债危机之后，我国经济面临着前所未有的投资及出口增速下降难的问题。内需不足，特别是广大农村居民消费水平明显偏低，消费结构严重落后，致使我国经济增长放缓已成必然。因此对农村居民消费结构变动及其影响因素的深入研究，是实现农村居民消费结构层级跃迁以及区域经济增长的重要途径；也为加快社会主义新农村建设，实现区域城乡经济协调发展提供战略选择。
本研究以现代经济学、统计学、人口学和计量经济学等多学科理论为指导，综合使用定性和定量分析的研究方法，以消费结构为切入点，以陕西农村居民为依托，利用时间序列动态、截面数据静态和截面数据静态对比等研究手段，对陕西农村居民消费结构进行了全面系统的研究。本研究主要从以下三个方面展开：
首先，在阐述了消费结构问题研究的背景、选题意义、国内外研究现状及述评等基本问题之后，对研究对象和相关概念进行界定并提出研究的相关假设；分析农村居民消费结构与经济增长之间的关系；介绍并评述了西方消费理论及消费函数的演进和发展过程，试图揭示各种消费理论和观点之间的渊源与相关关系，为论文下一步的研究打下理论基础。其次，利用因子分析法和聚类分析法对1980-2011年陕西农村居民消费结构演变轨迹进行了剖析和阶段划分，在此基础上，从农村居民恩格尔系数、吃穿住用的内、外部关系以及实物和劳务消费结构方面出发，对陕西农村居民消费结构演化轨迹特征进行了详细的分析和总结；利用2005-2012年陕西农户调查的微观数据实证分析了收入、家庭禀赋和产业结构对农村居民消费结构的影响。最后，基于论文研究成果，结合目前陕西农村实际情况，从有效提高农村居民收入、合理提升农村居民自身素质、科学调整产业结构以及完善农村社会保障制度等方面，针对促进农村居民消费结构层级跃迁提出建议对策。
本研究的主要结论包括：
（1）改革开放以来，陕西农村居民消费结构特征变化显著，生存型消费资料在消费支出中所占比例明显减少，享受型消费资料在消费支出中所占比例不断提高；实物消费比重逐渐减少，劳务消费比重逐渐增多。
（2）通过建立线性回归、面板数据模型和ELES模型，实证分析了纯收入对农村居民消费结构的影响，研究结果表明：工资性收入和家庭经营性收入是农村居民稳定的收入来源，主要用于改善农村居民以生存型消费资料为主导的消费结构，财产性收入和转移性收入是农村居民收入当中不稳定的收入，主要用于改善享受型或发展型消费资料为主导的消费结构；随着收入的提高，收入低的农村居民在衣着、居住、家庭设备用品及服务、交通和通讯、医疗保健、文教娱乐方面对消费拉动大于收入高的农村居民，而食品消费和其他商品及服务消费比重不受到收入的影响，收入越高表明其消费水平越高。
（3）通过建立ELES模型、面板数据模型和灰色关联分析，实证分析了家庭禀赋对陕西农村居民消费结构的影响，研究结果表明：人口规模大的家庭消费水平低，消费结构当中生存型消费资料所占比重大；由于受教育程度高的农村居民消费水平和购买力在农村市场无法得到满足，导致农村居民消费水平与受教育程度成反比，边际消费倾向与受教育程度成正比；农村居民抚养负担为0-1人和2-3人的家庭，其消费结构基本相似。
（4）通过建立VAR模型和线性回归模型，实证分析了产业结构对陕西农村居民消费结构的影响，研究结果表明：农村居民消费结构的变迁在一定程度上引起了产业结构的变化，但是由于整体收入低的影响，仅有第三产业的变化对农村居民消费结构层级跃迁产生了显著的影响；三次产业蓬勃发展将会提升农村居民各项消费的消费水平，降低消费比重，提升消费结构层级。
Experiencing World Economic Crisis in2008and European Debt Crisis in2009, China'seconomy is facing difficulties such as unprecedented investment and increasingly decliningexport growth. It is inevitable for China's economic to grow slowly due to seriously laggingconsumption structure and insufficient domestic demand, especially the obvious lower levelof rural residents’ consumption. Therefore, a deep study on changes in rural consumptionstructure and its influencing factors is important to fulfill its hierarchy transitions and regionaleconomic growth, and also offer strategic choice for accelerating new socialist countrysideconstruction and coordinated development of regional economy in urban and rural areas.
Guided by theories in Modern Economics, Statistics, Demography, Econometrics andother subjects, using qualitative and quantitative analysis method comprehensively, takingconsumption structure as the breakthrough point, relying on Shaanxi rural residents and usingresearch techniques such as dynamic time series, static cross-section data and theircomparison, the survey makes an overall and systematical analysis on Shaanxi rural residents'consumption structure. This research mainly launches from the following three aspects:
Firstly, after elaborating research background, significance of the topic, domestic andinternational research status and review, objects of study and related concepts are defined andrelevant research hypothesis is proposed; the relationship between rural residents'consumption structure and economic growth is analyzed; the evolution and developmentprocess of western consumption theory and the consumption function are introduced andreviewed, origin and relationship among a variety of consumer theories and viewpoints arerevealed by attempt, which lay the theoretical foundation for the next step of survey. Secondly,by Factor Analysis and Cluster Analysis, the evolution path of1980-2011Shaanxi ruralresidents’ consumption structure is dissected and classified into stages. On such basis, fromsuch aspects as Engel Coefficient of rural residents, internal and external relations amongfood, clothing, shelter and daily use, entity and labor consumption structure, the evolutionalfeatures of Shaanxi rural consumption structure are analyzed and summarized in details. Theeffects of income, family endowment and industrial structure are exemplified by making useof micro data survey of Shaanxi peasant households during2005-2012. Finally, based onresearch results and the actual situation in Shaanxi rural areas, aiming at promoting hierarchy transitions of rural consumption structure, countermeasures are suggested for increase of ruralresidents' income, reasonable promotion of their personal quality, scientific adjustment ofindustrial structure and perfection of rural social security system.
The main conclusions of this research are:
(1) Since the Chinese Economic Reform, Shaanxi rural residents' consumption structurechanged significantly, in which living consumption ratio in consumption expenditure clearlyreduced, enjoyment spending continuously raised, entity consumption gradually declined, andlabor consumption gradually increased.
(2) By building linear regression, panel data model and ELES model, the effect of incomeis exemplified. The results show that the income from wage and household business, which isa stable source, mainly improves the consumption structure dominated by living consumptiondata, while property income and transfer income, which are the unstable, mainly improves theconsumption structure dominated by enjoyment or development consumption data.Low-income rural residents consumption demand is greater than high-income ones in respectof clothing, living, household appliances, medical care, education and entertainment withrising income, while food, other goods and services consumption ratio is not subject to theinfluence of income, higher income shows higher in its consumption level.
(3) By setting up ELES model, panel data model and grey cognate analysis, the familyendowment’s influence is exemplified. The more members a family, the lower consumptionlevel, for the living consumption accounts for the biggest part among consumption structure.Since rural market cannot satisfy the consumption level and purchasing power of highlyeducated rural residents, their consumption level is inversely proportional to their educationlevel, while the marginal propensity to consume is proportional to the education level. Therural families with0-1or2-3people have almost similar consumption structure.
(4) By establishing VAR model and linear regression model, an analysis is made for theeffect of industrial structure. It shows that changes of consumption structure have causedchanges of industrial structure in a certain extent, but only the changes in the tertiary industryhave a significant impact on structure transition layer because of low income. The vigorousdevelopment of three major industry will promote rural residents' consumption level, reducethe proportion of consumption and rise the hierarchy of consumption structure.
本研究以现代经济学、统计学、人口学和计量经济学等多学科理论为指导，综合使用定性和定量分析的研究方法，以消费结构为切入点，以陕西农村居民为依托，利用时间序列动态、截面数据静态和截面数据静态对比等研究手段，对陕西农村居民消费结构进行了全面系统的研究。本研究主要从以下三个方面展开：
首先，在阐述了消费结构问题研究的背景、选题意义、国内外研究现状及述评等基本问题之后，对研究对象和相关概念进行界定并提出研究的相关假设；分析农村居民消费结构与经济增长之间的关系；介绍并评述了西方消费理论及消费函数的演进和发展过程，试图揭示各种消费理论和观点之间的渊源与相关关系，为论文下一步的研究打下理论基础。其次，利用因子分析法和聚类分析法对1980-2011年陕西农村居民消费结构演变轨迹进行了剖析和阶段划分，在此基础上，从农村居民恩格尔系数、吃穿住用的内、外部关系以及实物和劳务消费结构方面出发，对陕西农村居民消费结构演化轨迹特征进行了详细的分析和总结；利用2005-2012年陕西农户调查的微观数据实证分析了收入、家庭禀赋和产业结构对农村居民消费结构的影响。最后，基于论文研究成果，结合目前陕西农村实际情况，从有效提高农村居民收入、合理提升农村居民自身素质、科学调整产业结构以及完善农村社会保障制度等方面，针对促进农村居民消费结构层级跃迁提出建议对策。
本研究的主要结论包括：
（1）改革开放以来，陕西农村居民消费结构特征变化显著，生存型消费资料在消费支出中所占比例明显减少，享受型消费资料在消费支出中所占比例不断提高；实物消费比重逐渐减少，劳务消费比重逐渐增多。
（2）通过建立线性回归、面板数据模型和ELES模型，实证分析了纯收入对农村居民消费结构的影响，研究结果表明：工资性收入和家庭经营性收入是农村居民稳定的收入来源，主要用于改善农村居民以生存型消费资料为主导的消费结构，财产性收入和转移性收入是农村居民收入当中不稳定的收入，主要用于改善享受型或发展型消费资料为主导的消费结构；随着收入的提高，收入低的农村居民在衣着、居住、家庭设备用品及服务、交通和通讯、医疗保健、文教娱乐方面对消费拉动大于收入高的农村居民，而食品消费和其他商品及服务消费比重不受到收入的影响，收入越高表明其消费水平越高。
（3）通过建立ELES模型、面板数据模型和灰色关联分析，实证分析了家庭禀赋对陕西农村居民消费结构的影响，研究结果表明：人口规模大的家庭消费水平低，消费结构当中生存型消费资料所占比重大；由于受教育程度高的农村居民消费水平和购买力在农村市场无法得到满足，导致农村居民消费水平与受教育程度成反比，边际消费倾向与受教育程度成正比；农村居民抚养负担为0-1人和2-3人的家庭，其消费结构基本相似。
（4）通过建立VAR模型和线性回归模型，实证分析了产业结构对陕西农村居民消费结构的影响，研究结果表明：农村居民消费结构的变迁在一定程度上引起了产业结构的变化，但是由于整体收入低的影响，仅有第三产业的变化对农村居民消费结构层级跃迁产生了显著的影响；三次产业蓬勃发展将会提升农村居民各项消费的消费水平，降低消费比重，提升消费结构层级。
Experiencing World Economic Crisis in2008and European Debt Crisis in2009, China'seconomy is facing difficulties such as unprecedented investment and increasingly decliningexport growth. It is inevitable for China's economic to grow slowly due to seriously laggingconsumption structure and insufficient domestic demand, especially the obvious lower levelof rural residents’ consumption. Therefore, a deep study on changes in rural consumptionstructure and its influencing factors is important to fulfill its hierarchy transitions and regionaleconomic growth, and also offer strategic choice for accelerating new socialist countrysideconstruction and coordinated development of regional economy in urban and rural areas.
Guided by theories in Modern Economics, Statistics, Demography, Econometrics andother subjects, using qualitative and quantitative analysis method comprehensively, takingconsumption structure as the breakthrough point, relying on Shaanxi rural residents and usingresearch techniques such as dynamic time series, static cross-section data and theircomparison, the survey makes an overall and systematical analysis on Shaanxi rural residents'consumption structure. This research mainly launches from the following three aspects:
Firstly, after elaborating research background, significance of the topic, domestic andinternational research status and review, objects of study and related concepts are defined andrelevant research hypothesis is proposed; the relationship between rural residents'consumption structure and economic growth is analyzed; the evolution and developmentprocess of western consumption theory and the consumption function are introduced andreviewed, origin and relationship among a variety of consumer theories and viewpoints arerevealed by attempt, which lay the theoretical foundation for the next step of survey. Secondly,by Factor Analysis and Cluster Analysis, the evolution path of1980-2011Shaanxi ruralresidents’ consumption structure is dissected and classified into stages. On such basis, fromsuch aspects as Engel Coefficient of rural residents, internal and external relations amongfood, clothing, shelter and daily use, entity and labor consumption structure, the evolutionalfeatures of Shaanxi rural consumption structure are analyzed and summarized in details. Theeffects of income, family endowment and industrial structure are exemplified by making useof micro data survey of Shaanxi peasant households during2005-2012. Finally, based onresearch results and the actual situation in Shaanxi rural areas, aiming at promoting hierarchy transitions of rural consumption structure, countermeasures are suggested for increase of ruralresidents' income, reasonable promotion of their personal quality, scientific adjustment ofindustrial structure and perfection of rural social security system.
The main conclusions of this research are:
(1) Since the Chinese Economic Reform, Shaanxi rural residents' consumption structurechanged significantly, in which living consumption ratio in consumption expenditure clearlyreduced, enjoyment spending continuously raised, entity consumption gradually declined, andlabor consumption gradually increased.
(2) By building linear regression, panel data model and ELES model, the effect of incomeis exemplified. The results show that the income from wage and household business, which isa stable source, mainly improves the consumption structure dominated by living consumptiondata, while property income and transfer income, which are the unstable, mainly improves theconsumption structure dominated by enjoyment or development consumption data.Low-income rural residents consumption demand is greater than high-income ones in respectof clothing, living, household appliances, medical care, education and entertainment withrising income, while food, other goods and services consumption ratio is not subject to theinfluence of income, higher income shows higher in its consumption level.
(3) By setting up ELES model, panel data model and grey cognate analysis, the familyendowment’s influence is exemplified. The more members a family, the lower consumptionlevel, for the living consumption accounts for the biggest part among consumption structure.Since rural market cannot satisfy the consumption level and purchasing power of highlyeducated rural residents, their consumption level is inversely proportional to their educationlevel, while the marginal propensity to consume is proportional to the education level. Therural families with0-1or2-3people have almost similar consumption structure.
(4) By establishing VAR model and linear regression model, an analysis is made for theeffect of industrial structure. It shows that changes of consumption structure have causedchanges of industrial structure in a certain extent, but only the changes in the tertiary industryhave a significant impact on structure transition layer because of low income. The vigorousdevelopment of three major industry will promote rural residents' consumption level, reducethe proportion of consumption and rise the hierarchy of consumption structure.
引文
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