东亚夏季风年代际变化的天气气候特征及其与太阳活动的相关性
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摘要
太阳是离地球最近的恒星,同时也是地球气候系统最基本的能量源,太阳活动的变化对全球天气气候系统有着非常重要的影响。季风作为大尺度大气环流系统,它的形成是由于太阳对陆地和海洋的加热差异所造成的。我国位于典型的东亚季风区,东亚季风的强弱对我国气候分布和变化有着重要作用,尤其是东亚夏季风,它的长期变化规律对我国天气气候的影响一直都是气象研究中的重要课题。本文主要针对东亚夏季风年代际变化的天气气候特征及其与太阳活动的相关性进行深入研究,并从海温、气温、大气环流、风场等各个角度全面分析了太阳活动对东亚夏季风年代际变化的可能影响途径,具有一定的创新性。主要结论如下：
(1)建立了近162年以来较长时间尺度的东亚夏季风指数序列,分析表明在1960年代中期,东亚夏季风强度发生突变减弱,而随后在1970年代中后期再次减弱,完成了从强夏季风年到弱夏季风年的转换。同时还发现,中国夏季气候与东亚夏季风的年代际变化有着显著的相关,但不同地区关系不同,中国东部与西部地区有明显的差异；随着东亚夏季风的突变,中国气候也在20世纪60-70年代之间发生了突变。夏季风异常强年与异常弱年降水的分布呈相反形势,温度的分布有明显的区域特征。
(2)运用Morlet小波分析技术讨论了东亚夏季风的年代际变化和太阳黑子活动的年代际变化之间的相关关系,同时分析了太阳磁场磁性指数的变化规律,找出了可能影响东亚夏季风年代际变化的太阳活动周期,进而对它们共有的周期进行研究。同时详细阐述了太阳磁场对地球大气的影响,指出太阳活动是影响东亚夏季风年代际变化的一个重要因子。
(3)研究了海温、东亚大陆气温,西太平洋副高对太阳活动的响应以及大气环流的年代际变化等方面的问题并讨论了太阳活动影响东亚夏季风的可能途径。分析指出太阳活动影响全球海温的年代际异常,而且对于太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)有着重要的作用,最明显的影响体现在其对于PDO的22年左右周期影响。在受夏季风影响比较严重的我国东部地区,太阳活动和大陆地面气温变化与东亚夏季风的强弱趋势是比较一致的。
(4)对夏季北半球中低层高度场、西太平洋副热带高压、海平面气压场和850hPa风场的年代际变化的分析发现,在强夏季风年时,副高位置偏北偏西；在弱夏季风年时,副高位置偏南偏东。海平面气压场和850hPa风场都在1960年代中期开始减弱并在70年代后期发生转折,较好的表现了海陆热力差异对东亚夏季风年代际变化的影响。海洋和大陆对太阳辐射吸收的程度不同而使得海陆温度产生变化,导致海陆热力差异的异常,进而影响到东亚夏季风。
(5)通过分析夏季风背景下异常强降水发生前的重点空间天气事件,把太阳活动的变化与异常强天气过程联系在一起,初步探索太阳活动与异常天气事件之间的关系。研究结果表明,太阳活动所引起的太阳辐射、地磁指数等的变化,与对流层大气所出现的异常降水事件有一定的对应。同时在对这两个典型的异常降水事件的分析和诊断中,从大气能量学角度出发,结合波包传播诊断方法(WPD)推导并引入能量参数E,讨论了异常降水过程中的大气能量转换特征,为今后的灾害性天气预报及分析诊断提供了一个新的思路。
The sun is the nearest star to the Earth, but also the most basic energy source in the Earth's climate system.The variations of solar activity has a very important influence on the global weather and climate system. Monsoon as a large-scale atmospheric circulation system, its formation is due to the solar heating of land and ocean diffiences caused. China is located in the typical region of East Asian monsoon; the East Asian monsoon strength plays an important role in climate distributions and changes of China, especially the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Its long-term variation of weather and clmate characteristics has always been am important issue in the meterological research. This paper is mainly for the weather and clmate characteristics of interdecadal variation of EASM and its correlation with solar activity. From the SST, temperature, circulation, wind field and the other aspects, the ways of solar activity impact on the interdecadal of EASM is analysed. Further, the work also has certain innovation.The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) A162years longer time series of EASM index has been established. Analysis shows that in mid-1960s, the strength of EASM weakened, and then weakened again in mid-1970s. Meanwhile, the conversion from strong summer monsoon years to the weak summer monsoon years is completed. It is also found that, summer climate of China and the interdecadal variation of EASM is significantly related. In eastern China has the obvious difference with the western region. With the abrupt change of EASM, China climate change occurred between the1960s and1970s. The distribution of precipitation is completely diffirent in abnormally strong EASM year and abnormally weak EASM year. The temperature distribution has significant regional characteristics.
(2) The relationship between interdecadal variation of EASM and sunspot activity is discussed by using Morlet wavelet analysis method. Meanwhile, the variation of solar magnetic index is analysed and the same cycle of interdecadal variation of EASM and solar activity is also identified. Further, the deeply research is based on their common cycle and the solar magnetic field affects the Earth's atmosphere is also elaborated. Results indicate that the solar activity is an important factor affecting interdecadal variation of EASM.
(3) Study on the sea temperature, temperature of East Asia continent, the West Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) response to solar activity and the interdecadal variation of atmospheric circulation. Meanwhile, the possible ways of solar activity affects EASM is also discussed. The results show that solar activity affects the interdecadal variation of global SST anomalies.and also plays an important role of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The most obvious influence is reflected in its cycle of about22years for PDO.In the eastern region of China, variation of solar activity and temperature is consistent with the strength of EASM.
(4) According to analyzing the interdecadal variation of geopotential height field, West Pacific subtropical high, sea level pressure (SLP) field and850hPa wind field, the results show that WPSH is northerly and westerly in strong EASM year; it is southerly and easterly in weak EASM year. SLP and850hPa wind field are weakened in mid-1960s and abrupt in the late1970s. It is better reflected the influence of land-sea thermal difference on the interdecadal variation of EASM. Solar radiations are absorbed by sea and continent at different levels, and then make changes in land and sea temperature. It will lead to land-sea thermal anomaly, further affecting EASM.
(5) By analysis of the major space weather events before the abnormal heavy rainfall, it is tentatively that linked the variation of solar activity to the heavy rainfall events. It is initially explored the relationship between solar activity and abnormal weather events. The results show that variations of solar radiation and geomagnetic index correspond to the abnormal precipitation events in troposphere. Meanwhile, in the analysis and diagnosis of the two typical abnormal precipitation events, based on atmospheric energetics theory and WPD method, we have derived a new energy parameter E and the characteristic of atmospheric energy conversion during heavy rainfall was discussed. It is also provided a new way of thinking for the future severe weather forecasting and diagnosising.
(1)建立了近162年以来较长时间尺度的东亚夏季风指数序列,分析表明在1960年代中期,东亚夏季风强度发生突变减弱,而随后在1970年代中后期再次减弱,完成了从强夏季风年到弱夏季风年的转换。同时还发现,中国夏季气候与东亚夏季风的年代际变化有着显著的相关,但不同地区关系不同,中国东部与西部地区有明显的差异；随着东亚夏季风的突变,中国气候也在20世纪60-70年代之间发生了突变。夏季风异常强年与异常弱年降水的分布呈相反形势,温度的分布有明显的区域特征。
(2)运用Morlet小波分析技术讨论了东亚夏季风的年代际变化和太阳黑子活动的年代际变化之间的相关关系,同时分析了太阳磁场磁性指数的变化规律,找出了可能影响东亚夏季风年代际变化的太阳活动周期,进而对它们共有的周期进行研究。同时详细阐述了太阳磁场对地球大气的影响,指出太阳活动是影响东亚夏季风年代际变化的一个重要因子。
(3)研究了海温、东亚大陆气温,西太平洋副高对太阳活动的响应以及大气环流的年代际变化等方面的问题并讨论了太阳活动影响东亚夏季风的可能途径。分析指出太阳活动影响全球海温的年代际异常,而且对于太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)有着重要的作用,最明显的影响体现在其对于PDO的22年左右周期影响。在受夏季风影响比较严重的我国东部地区,太阳活动和大陆地面气温变化与东亚夏季风的强弱趋势是比较一致的。
(4)对夏季北半球中低层高度场、西太平洋副热带高压、海平面气压场和850hPa风场的年代际变化的分析发现,在强夏季风年时,副高位置偏北偏西；在弱夏季风年时,副高位置偏南偏东。海平面气压场和850hPa风场都在1960年代中期开始减弱并在70年代后期发生转折,较好的表现了海陆热力差异对东亚夏季风年代际变化的影响。海洋和大陆对太阳辐射吸收的程度不同而使得海陆温度产生变化,导致海陆热力差异的异常,进而影响到东亚夏季风。
(5)通过分析夏季风背景下异常强降水发生前的重点空间天气事件,把太阳活动的变化与异常强天气过程联系在一起,初步探索太阳活动与异常天气事件之间的关系。研究结果表明,太阳活动所引起的太阳辐射、地磁指数等的变化,与对流层大气所出现的异常降水事件有一定的对应。同时在对这两个典型的异常降水事件的分析和诊断中,从大气能量学角度出发,结合波包传播诊断方法(WPD)推导并引入能量参数E,讨论了异常降水过程中的大气能量转换特征,为今后的灾害性天气预报及分析诊断提供了一个新的思路。
The sun is the nearest star to the Earth, but also the most basic energy source in the Earth's climate system.The variations of solar activity has a very important influence on the global weather and climate system. Monsoon as a large-scale atmospheric circulation system, its formation is due to the solar heating of land and ocean diffiences caused. China is located in the typical region of East Asian monsoon; the East Asian monsoon strength plays an important role in climate distributions and changes of China, especially the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Its long-term variation of weather and clmate characteristics has always been am important issue in the meterological research. This paper is mainly for the weather and clmate characteristics of interdecadal variation of EASM and its correlation with solar activity. From the SST, temperature, circulation, wind field and the other aspects, the ways of solar activity impact on the interdecadal of EASM is analysed. Further, the work also has certain innovation.The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) A162years longer time series of EASM index has been established. Analysis shows that in mid-1960s, the strength of EASM weakened, and then weakened again in mid-1970s. Meanwhile, the conversion from strong summer monsoon years to the weak summer monsoon years is completed. It is also found that, summer climate of China and the interdecadal variation of EASM is significantly related. In eastern China has the obvious difference with the western region. With the abrupt change of EASM, China climate change occurred between the1960s and1970s. The distribution of precipitation is completely diffirent in abnormally strong EASM year and abnormally weak EASM year. The temperature distribution has significant regional characteristics.
(2) The relationship between interdecadal variation of EASM and sunspot activity is discussed by using Morlet wavelet analysis method. Meanwhile, the variation of solar magnetic index is analysed and the same cycle of interdecadal variation of EASM and solar activity is also identified. Further, the deeply research is based on their common cycle and the solar magnetic field affects the Earth's atmosphere is also elaborated. Results indicate that the solar activity is an important factor affecting interdecadal variation of EASM.
(3) Study on the sea temperature, temperature of East Asia continent, the West Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) response to solar activity and the interdecadal variation of atmospheric circulation. Meanwhile, the possible ways of solar activity affects EASM is also discussed. The results show that solar activity affects the interdecadal variation of global SST anomalies.and also plays an important role of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The most obvious influence is reflected in its cycle of about22years for PDO.In the eastern region of China, variation of solar activity and temperature is consistent with the strength of EASM.
(4) According to analyzing the interdecadal variation of geopotential height field, West Pacific subtropical high, sea level pressure (SLP) field and850hPa wind field, the results show that WPSH is northerly and westerly in strong EASM year; it is southerly and easterly in weak EASM year. SLP and850hPa wind field are weakened in mid-1960s and abrupt in the late1970s. It is better reflected the influence of land-sea thermal difference on the interdecadal variation of EASM. Solar radiations are absorbed by sea and continent at different levels, and then make changes in land and sea temperature. It will lead to land-sea thermal anomaly, further affecting EASM.
(5) By analysis of the major space weather events before the abnormal heavy rainfall, it is tentatively that linked the variation of solar activity to the heavy rainfall events. It is initially explored the relationship between solar activity and abnormal weather events. The results show that variations of solar radiation and geomagnetic index correspond to the abnormal precipitation events in troposphere. Meanwhile, in the analysis and diagnosis of the two typical abnormal precipitation events, based on atmospheric energetics theory and WPD method, we have derived a new energy parameter E and the characteristic of atmospheric energy conversion during heavy rainfall was discussed. It is also provided a new way of thinking for the future severe weather forecasting and diagnosising.
引文
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