基于历史数据的中国民航跑道安全管理关键问题研究
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摘要
安全是社会文明和进步的重要标志，也是民航业赖以生存与持续发展的基础。随着我国民航业在管理和技术上的提升，近年来取得了一定的安全业绩，从结果上看安全水平已然步入世界先进行列。但是，中国民航总体上的安全基础仍相对薄弱，安全管理体系尚在完善之中，安全保障能力与行业快速发展还不相适应，尤其在某些安全管理环节上仍然存在明显缺陷，与航空发达国家相比还有很大的差距。根据统计，最近10年来我国民航运输航空最突出的问题当属跑道安全。对跑道安全进行针对性研究既是民航运输量发展到一定程度时政府和企事业单位的必然诉求，也是行业突破安全管理瓶颈的唯一选择。
鉴于此，本文将对跑道安全所包含的三个核心问题即跑道混淆、偏/冲出跑道和跑道侵入，采取数据驱动的形式置于统一的框架下展开研究，综合运用航空事故分析理论、故障诊断理论、灰色系统理论、贝叶斯网络、人工智能等理论和分析方法系统地、定量地研究导致上述三个核心问题的原因，提出解决问题的指导思想和策略，最终形成较为系统和完善的跑道安全管理理论。本文研究成果将改变中国民航长期以来以感性经验为主的跑道安全管理模式，为航空公司、机场、空管、民航当局等利益相关方制定系统性、针对性的跑道安全防范措施提供理论指导。
本文的主要内容有：
（1）航空器看错落错跑道事件研究。将跑道混淆划分为从错误道面起飞以及看错、落错跑道两个类型，统计数据表明后者系中国民航近年的突出问题。基于SHEL模型对发生在我国民航最近12年的看错、落错跑道事件进行了系统分析，发现该模型尚存在显著不足，于是将SHEL模型修正为M-SHEL模型。利用M-SHEL模型确定了看错、落错跑道事件的成因，并基于灰色关联分析法按照对事件影响程度的大小将各要素进行了排序，提出除了容易被识别的机组和环境因素外，管理应该成为重点关注对象。
（2）民航运输航空器偏/冲出跑道研究。统计数据表明，航空器偏/冲出跑道中最突出的问题表现为冲出跑道和着陆偏出跑道。对起飞、着陆和中断起飞过程分别进行了力学分析，对滑跑距离进行了模型推演，结果表明与飞机冲出跑道相关的因素包括飞机定型后固有性能、航班运行条件和机组的操纵技能。从航班运行条件和机组的操纵技能两方面进行了详细分析，提出了冲出跑道的防范策略。为了提高人的效能，针对冲出跑道中的不安全行为构建了人的因素干预矩阵。该模型表明，不安全行为需要通过对组织管理、人/团队、技术、任务和环境五个层面进行干预。通过评判安全建议的可行性、可接受性、经济性、有效性，确定其优先级别。为求解着陆航空器偏出跑道的关键要素，提出了基于故障树和贝叶斯网络相融合的建模方法以及故障树和贝叶斯网络间的转换算法。故障树和贝叶斯网络的融合较之传统的故障树分析法有更强的建模分析能力，更逼近事件发生的实际状况，既发挥了逻辑分析的优势又实现了描述多态事件及概率计算的功能，有利于提高定量分析的准确性。应对着陆航空器偏出跑道问题需对积水、反喷减速板故障、复杂气象条件等主要风险因素给予重点关注。
（3）跑道侵入研究。基于国际民航组织提出的跑道侵入的定义，探讨了“地面保护区”的划设框架。“地面保护区”的划设需要考虑航向台、下滑台的场地保护以及升降带和端安全区的保护，还要注意航空器滑行一侧等待位置的连线以及无航空器滑行一侧距离跑道中心线75米的平整区域。为识别热点区域，提出了矩阵法和模糊聚类两种定量研究模型，算例验证表明它对于筛选热点区域具备良好的适用性。结合两种方法并取其交集可以提高结果的可信度。对比研究表明，与航空发达国家相比，我国民航跑道侵入事件的发生具有独特的环境。中国民航跑道侵入最主要的因素是：飞行区管理混乱，人员车辆擅自进入跑道；军民合用机场协调不畅等。基于威胁与差错管理模型对跑道侵入事件的数据进行了定量研究，使用最小二乘法对结果和影响因素进行了多元回归分析，研究得出了跑道侵入事件与其相关因素之间的二元线性回归方程，为查找跑道侵入的主要因素奠定了条件。提出了跑道侵入的控制模型，作为一项管理工具，它便于管理者掌握运行状况、实时进行有效干预。
（4）跑道安全事件的危害评价、事件调查及形势预测研究。为提高业内人士对于跑道安全事件的认识，提出了一种新的事态评价方法。综合考虑显性危害和潜在危害是一种更理性、客观的方法,实践证明该算法便于操作，易于掌握。对比分析了案例推理和规则推理两种机制的优缺点，建立了一种融合推理的方法。为确定各特征属性的权重，利用最优传递矩阵对层次分析法进行改进，使之自然满足一致性要求而无需检验。将规则推理和案例推理技术进行融合极大地弥补了各自的缺点，为调查跑道安全事件提供了智能辅助决策。利用灰色理论和BP神经网络并基于Shapley权重分配对我国民航跑道安全状况进行预测研究，结果表明组合方法对于提高预测精度有着一定意义，我国民航未来跑道安全形势仍然严峻。
Safety is the important sign of social civilization and progress, also the foundation of civilaviation industry’s survival and sustainable development. In recent years, civil aviation industry ofChina has made certain achievements in regard to safety with the improvement of management andtechnique. The safety performance seems to be enlisted as one of the best throughout the world in theperspective of result. However, the overall safety foundation of China civil aviation is still relativeweak, safety management system is still under construction to achieve perfection, comprehensivesafety handling ability cannot match the rapid development of industry. In certain safety managementaspects, defects still do exist. There is a lot of work need to be done to catch up with developedaviation countries. According to related statistics, runway safety has been the most prominent issue ofChina civil aviation industry in the past10years. The research on runway safety is the inevitabledemands of the government and stakeholders when air traffic flow reaches to a certain extent. It isalso the only choice to break through the bottleneck in safety management.
In view of the background, this paper studied the three key issues of runway safety, namelyrunway confusion, runway excursion and runway incursion under a unified framework with themethod of data driving. Aircraft accident analysis theory, failure diagnosis theory, the gray systemtheory, Bayesian network, artificial intelligence and so on were adopted comprehensively tosystematically and quantitatively research the causes for the above three issues. Accordingly, guidanceand strategy were raised to get the solution. Eventually a scientific and sound runway safetymanagement theory was formed. The result of this study will change our long-lasting runway safetymanagement mode which is mainly based on perceptual experience. It can offer theoretical guidanceto the systematical and targeted runway safety prevention measures for all the stakeholders such as theairlines, airports, air traffic management agencies and the authorities.
The main contents are as follows:
（1）Study on the event of aircraft’s mistaken alignment or landing on wrong runway. It dividedthe issue of runway confusion into two categories, i.e., departure from wrong runway and mistakenrunway alignment or landing on the wrong runway. Statistics showed that the latter one is theprominent problem of china civil aviation in recent years. SHEL model was adopted tosystematically analyze aircraft’s mistaken alignment or landing on wrong runway in the past12years. It was discovered that the model had significant deficiency. Therefore, SHEL model wasmodified into M-SHEL model, which was used to determine the causes of aircraft’s mistakenalignment or landing on wrong runway events. A sequence of all the factors was generated according to the level of influence based on gray relative analysis method. It was clear that the core link toprevent this kind of event from happening should focus on management factor in addition to crewand environment which could be identified easily.
（2）Study on runway excursion for commercial flight. Data showed that the prominentappearances of runway excursion were runway overrun and runway veer-off after landing. Mechanicalanalysis was made toward take-off, landing and aborted take-off respectively, and the rolling distancewas deduced at the same time. It can be found in the result that aircraft overrun was related to thebuilt-in performance of a certain aircraft type, operation condition of flight and the control techniquesof the crew. A detailed analysis was followed based on the near two factors. As a result, a runwayoverrun prevention method was introduced. In order to improve human performance, a human factorintervention matrix was constructed according to the unsafe behaviors in runway overruns. Thismodel suggested that human’s unsafe behaviors require intervention from five levels, namelyorganization management, individual/team, technology, tasks and environment. Through evaluation offeasibility, acceptability, economy and effectiveness, the priority level of safety recommendations wasdetermined. In order to find out the key factors of runway excursion, it put forward a modelingmethod with the integration of fault tree and Bayesian network, and conversion algorithm betweenfault tree and Bayesian network. Compared with traditional fault tree analysis, the new method had astronger ability of modeling analysis, and it was closer to the actual situation of the events. It not onlymade full use of the advantage of logical analysis, but also realized the function of describingmulti-state event and probability calculation. It can improve the accuracy of quantitative analysis.Special attention should be given to the main risky factors such as standing water, reverse thrustbraking failure and complicated weather condition so as to cope with the issue of aircraft’s veer off.
（3）Study on runway incursion. Based on the definition of runway incursion from internationalcivil aviation organization, the design frame on “the Protected Area of a Surface” was proposed. Thesurface protection of localizer, glide path station, the protection of runway strip and the runway endsafety area are needed to be considered in the planning of “the Protected Area of a Surface”. At thesame time, the linkage line between holding points at the aircraft taxiing side as well as a paved areawith the distance of75meters away from runway centerline on the non-taxiing side should also bepaid attention to. For the identification of hotspots, two quantitative study models of matrix methodand fuzzy clustering were put forward. Examples indicated that both of them have good applicabilityfor identification of hotspots. Combination of the two methods and taking their intersection canimprove the reliability of the results. Compared with the advanced aviation countries, comparativestudy showed that China has its own specific environment in terms of runway incursions. The main contributing factors of the runway incursions in China civil aviation industry can thus be illustrated asfollows: people or vehicle entering the runway without authorization due to poor management offlight area; the improper coordination between the civil and the military aviation agencies. Unsafeevent data have been studied quantitatively based on threat and error management model. The leastsquare was used to make multivariate regression analysis on the results and contributing factors. Withthe two element linear regression equation, the main factors of runway incursion can be identified. Acontrol model for runway incursion was introduced. It can be used as a management tool toconveniently grasp operation performance and make effective intervention at real time for those whoare in charge of managing.
（4）Study on loss assessment of runway safety occurrence, incident investigation and situationprediction. In order to improve the understanding of the professionals, a new situation evaluationmethod was presented. It is more rational and objective to consider the observable and potentialdamages. Practice proved that the algorithm is convenient for operation and easy to master.Comparative analysis about case-based reasoning and rule-based reasoning has been made in order tofind their advantages and disadvantages, which established a kind of fusion reasoning method. Fordetermining the weight of each characteristic’s nature, analytic hierarchy process was improved byoptimal transfer matrix so as to satisfy the consistency requirement naturally without testing. Theintegrated techniques of rule-based reasoning and case-based reasoning can largely overcome theirshortcomings, which offered an intelligent-assisted decision making for runway safety investigation.Gray theory and BP neural network have been integrated to make runway safety prediction researchbased on Shapley weight distribution. The results show that the combined method has a certainsignificance to improve the accuracy of prediction and the situation of runway safety in china willremain serious in future.
鉴于此，本文将对跑道安全所包含的三个核心问题即跑道混淆、偏/冲出跑道和跑道侵入，采取数据驱动的形式置于统一的框架下展开研究，综合运用航空事故分析理论、故障诊断理论、灰色系统理论、贝叶斯网络、人工智能等理论和分析方法系统地、定量地研究导致上述三个核心问题的原因，提出解决问题的指导思想和策略，最终形成较为系统和完善的跑道安全管理理论。本文研究成果将改变中国民航长期以来以感性经验为主的跑道安全管理模式，为航空公司、机场、空管、民航当局等利益相关方制定系统性、针对性的跑道安全防范措施提供理论指导。
本文的主要内容有：
（1）航空器看错落错跑道事件研究。将跑道混淆划分为从错误道面起飞以及看错、落错跑道两个类型，统计数据表明后者系中国民航近年的突出问题。基于SHEL模型对发生在我国民航最近12年的看错、落错跑道事件进行了系统分析，发现该模型尚存在显著不足，于是将SHEL模型修正为M-SHEL模型。利用M-SHEL模型确定了看错、落错跑道事件的成因，并基于灰色关联分析法按照对事件影响程度的大小将各要素进行了排序，提出除了容易被识别的机组和环境因素外，管理应该成为重点关注对象。
（2）民航运输航空器偏/冲出跑道研究。统计数据表明，航空器偏/冲出跑道中最突出的问题表现为冲出跑道和着陆偏出跑道。对起飞、着陆和中断起飞过程分别进行了力学分析，对滑跑距离进行了模型推演，结果表明与飞机冲出跑道相关的因素包括飞机定型后固有性能、航班运行条件和机组的操纵技能。从航班运行条件和机组的操纵技能两方面进行了详细分析，提出了冲出跑道的防范策略。为了提高人的效能，针对冲出跑道中的不安全行为构建了人的因素干预矩阵。该模型表明，不安全行为需要通过对组织管理、人/团队、技术、任务和环境五个层面进行干预。通过评判安全建议的可行性、可接受性、经济性、有效性，确定其优先级别。为求解着陆航空器偏出跑道的关键要素，提出了基于故障树和贝叶斯网络相融合的建模方法以及故障树和贝叶斯网络间的转换算法。故障树和贝叶斯网络的融合较之传统的故障树分析法有更强的建模分析能力，更逼近事件发生的实际状况，既发挥了逻辑分析的优势又实现了描述多态事件及概率计算的功能，有利于提高定量分析的准确性。应对着陆航空器偏出跑道问题需对积水、反喷减速板故障、复杂气象条件等主要风险因素给予重点关注。
（3）跑道侵入研究。基于国际民航组织提出的跑道侵入的定义，探讨了“地面保护区”的划设框架。“地面保护区”的划设需要考虑航向台、下滑台的场地保护以及升降带和端安全区的保护，还要注意航空器滑行一侧等待位置的连线以及无航空器滑行一侧距离跑道中心线75米的平整区域。为识别热点区域，提出了矩阵法和模糊聚类两种定量研究模型，算例验证表明它对于筛选热点区域具备良好的适用性。结合两种方法并取其交集可以提高结果的可信度。对比研究表明，与航空发达国家相比，我国民航跑道侵入事件的发生具有独特的环境。中国民航跑道侵入最主要的因素是：飞行区管理混乱，人员车辆擅自进入跑道；军民合用机场协调不畅等。基于威胁与差错管理模型对跑道侵入事件的数据进行了定量研究，使用最小二乘法对结果和影响因素进行了多元回归分析，研究得出了跑道侵入事件与其相关因素之间的二元线性回归方程，为查找跑道侵入的主要因素奠定了条件。提出了跑道侵入的控制模型，作为一项管理工具，它便于管理者掌握运行状况、实时进行有效干预。
（4）跑道安全事件的危害评价、事件调查及形势预测研究。为提高业内人士对于跑道安全事件的认识，提出了一种新的事态评价方法。综合考虑显性危害和潜在危害是一种更理性、客观的方法,实践证明该算法便于操作，易于掌握。对比分析了案例推理和规则推理两种机制的优缺点，建立了一种融合推理的方法。为确定各特征属性的权重，利用最优传递矩阵对层次分析法进行改进，使之自然满足一致性要求而无需检验。将规则推理和案例推理技术进行融合极大地弥补了各自的缺点，为调查跑道安全事件提供了智能辅助决策。利用灰色理论和BP神经网络并基于Shapley权重分配对我国民航跑道安全状况进行预测研究，结果表明组合方法对于提高预测精度有着一定意义，我国民航未来跑道安全形势仍然严峻。
Safety is the important sign of social civilization and progress, also the foundation of civilaviation industry’s survival and sustainable development. In recent years, civil aviation industry ofChina has made certain achievements in regard to safety with the improvement of management andtechnique. The safety performance seems to be enlisted as one of the best throughout the world in theperspective of result. However, the overall safety foundation of China civil aviation is still relativeweak, safety management system is still under construction to achieve perfection, comprehensivesafety handling ability cannot match the rapid development of industry. In certain safety managementaspects, defects still do exist. There is a lot of work need to be done to catch up with developedaviation countries. According to related statistics, runway safety has been the most prominent issue ofChina civil aviation industry in the past10years. The research on runway safety is the inevitabledemands of the government and stakeholders when air traffic flow reaches to a certain extent. It isalso the only choice to break through the bottleneck in safety management.
In view of the background, this paper studied the three key issues of runway safety, namelyrunway confusion, runway excursion and runway incursion under a unified framework with themethod of data driving. Aircraft accident analysis theory, failure diagnosis theory, the gray systemtheory, Bayesian network, artificial intelligence and so on were adopted comprehensively tosystematically and quantitatively research the causes for the above three issues. Accordingly, guidanceand strategy were raised to get the solution. Eventually a scientific and sound runway safetymanagement theory was formed. The result of this study will change our long-lasting runway safetymanagement mode which is mainly based on perceptual experience. It can offer theoretical guidanceto the systematical and targeted runway safety prevention measures for all the stakeholders such as theairlines, airports, air traffic management agencies and the authorities.
The main contents are as follows:
（1）Study on the event of aircraft’s mistaken alignment or landing on wrong runway. It dividedthe issue of runway confusion into two categories, i.e., departure from wrong runway and mistakenrunway alignment or landing on the wrong runway. Statistics showed that the latter one is theprominent problem of china civil aviation in recent years. SHEL model was adopted tosystematically analyze aircraft’s mistaken alignment or landing on wrong runway in the past12years. It was discovered that the model had significant deficiency. Therefore, SHEL model wasmodified into M-SHEL model, which was used to determine the causes of aircraft’s mistakenalignment or landing on wrong runway events. A sequence of all the factors was generated according to the level of influence based on gray relative analysis method. It was clear that the core link toprevent this kind of event from happening should focus on management factor in addition to crewand environment which could be identified easily.
（2）Study on runway excursion for commercial flight. Data showed that the prominentappearances of runway excursion were runway overrun and runway veer-off after landing. Mechanicalanalysis was made toward take-off, landing and aborted take-off respectively, and the rolling distancewas deduced at the same time. It can be found in the result that aircraft overrun was related to thebuilt-in performance of a certain aircraft type, operation condition of flight and the control techniquesof the crew. A detailed analysis was followed based on the near two factors. As a result, a runwayoverrun prevention method was introduced. In order to improve human performance, a human factorintervention matrix was constructed according to the unsafe behaviors in runway overruns. Thismodel suggested that human’s unsafe behaviors require intervention from five levels, namelyorganization management, individual/team, technology, tasks and environment. Through evaluation offeasibility, acceptability, economy and effectiveness, the priority level of safety recommendations wasdetermined. In order to find out the key factors of runway excursion, it put forward a modelingmethod with the integration of fault tree and Bayesian network, and conversion algorithm betweenfault tree and Bayesian network. Compared with traditional fault tree analysis, the new method had astronger ability of modeling analysis, and it was closer to the actual situation of the events. It not onlymade full use of the advantage of logical analysis, but also realized the function of describingmulti-state event and probability calculation. It can improve the accuracy of quantitative analysis.Special attention should be given to the main risky factors such as standing water, reverse thrustbraking failure and complicated weather condition so as to cope with the issue of aircraft’s veer off.
（3）Study on runway incursion. Based on the definition of runway incursion from internationalcivil aviation organization, the design frame on “the Protected Area of a Surface” was proposed. Thesurface protection of localizer, glide path station, the protection of runway strip and the runway endsafety area are needed to be considered in the planning of “the Protected Area of a Surface”. At thesame time, the linkage line between holding points at the aircraft taxiing side as well as a paved areawith the distance of75meters away from runway centerline on the non-taxiing side should also bepaid attention to. For the identification of hotspots, two quantitative study models of matrix methodand fuzzy clustering were put forward. Examples indicated that both of them have good applicabilityfor identification of hotspots. Combination of the two methods and taking their intersection canimprove the reliability of the results. Compared with the advanced aviation countries, comparativestudy showed that China has its own specific environment in terms of runway incursions. The main contributing factors of the runway incursions in China civil aviation industry can thus be illustrated asfollows: people or vehicle entering the runway without authorization due to poor management offlight area; the improper coordination between the civil and the military aviation agencies. Unsafeevent data have been studied quantitatively based on threat and error management model. The leastsquare was used to make multivariate regression analysis on the results and contributing factors. Withthe two element linear regression equation, the main factors of runway incursion can be identified. Acontrol model for runway incursion was introduced. It can be used as a management tool toconveniently grasp operation performance and make effective intervention at real time for those whoare in charge of managing.
（4）Study on loss assessment of runway safety occurrence, incident investigation and situationprediction. In order to improve the understanding of the professionals, a new situation evaluationmethod was presented. It is more rational and objective to consider the observable and potentialdamages. Practice proved that the algorithm is convenient for operation and easy to master.Comparative analysis about case-based reasoning and rule-based reasoning has been made in order tofind their advantages and disadvantages, which established a kind of fusion reasoning method. Fordetermining the weight of each characteristic’s nature, analytic hierarchy process was improved byoptimal transfer matrix so as to satisfy the consistency requirement naturally without testing. Theintegrated techniques of rule-based reasoning and case-based reasoning can largely overcome theirshortcomings, which offered an intelligent-assisted decision making for runway safety investigation.Gray theory and BP neural network have been integrated to make runway safety prediction researchbased on Shapley weight distribution. The results show that the combined method has a certainsignificance to improve the accuracy of prediction and the situation of runway safety in china willremain serious in future.
引文
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