油田难采储量分类与经济评价研究
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摘要
我国油田资源日益紧缺,许多油田的开发项目转向低孔、低渗的难采储量。难采储量的开发同时面临技术风险和经济风险,需要认真评估油田的开采效果和经济效益。然而,面对复杂繁多的油田勘探和开发条件,油田项目工作者依据现有的一些评价标准,只能给出单个储层、物性等指标的分类,无法给出储量的综合评价,在缺乏综合评价指标体系的情况下依赖于主观经验和判断,未充分挖掘现有的勘探和开发信息,更不能准确反映未开发区块的经济评价。为此,本文按全面性、数据完整性、数据非均值、指标弱相关性、公平性、强解释性原则构建了储量分类评价指标体系,指标包含开发效果、区块属性、经济评价三个板块,建立组合赋权模型计算区块属性指标的权重,设计FCM算法确定已开发区块的开发效果分类,并将FCM分类结果分别与组合赋权模型、BP神经网络算法、判别分析方法相结合,构建了未开发区块的分类方法,最后本文针对未开发区块的开发项目评价,提出了体现产出衰减效应的经济评价方法。本文在研究过程中,始终以大庆某油田的40多个区块为实例,说明难采储量分类与经济评价方法的应用过程,并取得了令人满意的结果。
首先,本文结合我国难采储量分类与评价工作的现状与难题,说明本文的选题背景,归纳研究的现实与理论意义。
其次,本文回顾了难采储量分类与评价方法的相关研究现状,提出本文的研究目标、内容与路线。
第三,本文提出了储量分类评价指标的全面性、数据完整性、数据非均值、指标弱相关性、公平性、强解释性6个原则,然后根据全面性、数据完整性建立了初步的分类评价指标体系,结合专家意见和调研情况,在数据非均值、指标弱相关性、公平性、强解释性等原则下,对指标进行了筛选。指标体系涉及开发效果、区块属性、经济评价三个板块,其作用是充分利用已开发区块开发的信息挖掘开发效果与属性指标间的关系,通过此关系利用未开发区块的属性指标值,预测未开发区块的类别。
第四,本文设计了模糊C均值(FCM)算法,对已开发区块效果指标进行分类,从而确定开发效果的类别数及每个类别的效果特征,本文将该方法应用于大庆某油田的30多个已开发区块的开发效果分类。
第五,本文构建了组合赋权模型,测算各属性指标在评价效果指标时所占的权重,模型依托于已开发区块的样本数据,目标函数同时要求专家预测误差和样本数据误差最小化,因此该权重预测方法融合了区块现有的客观样本数据和专家经验。本文以大庆某油田的样本区块为例说明了模型的应用过程。
第六,在对已开发区块的开发效果FCM分类基础上,分别运用BP神经网络、组合赋权模型、判别分析等公共具,构造了未开发区块难采储量分类方法,该方法充分挖掘已开发区块的样本数据,提出了“效果指标”与“地质、储层物性等指标”相结合的分类方法,改进了传统储量分类方法在缺乏未开发区块“开采效果”的情况下,依赖于对“地质、储层物性等指标”的主观判断与分类。本文以大庆某油田为样本区块的例说明分类方法的应用过程。
第七,构造了未开发区块的难采储量经济评价方法,在分类结果的基础上预测单井产量和开发成本,然后模拟“产量—时间”曲线,将前三月单井产量转化为各个评价期的修正产量,以此预测未开发区块的现金流,之后计算开发项目的经济评价指标和灵敏度变动情况。该方法有效利用现有的已开发区块样本信息,反映了油田生产的衰减效应,提供了未开发区块的油田开发经济评价方法。本文以大庆某油田的样本区块为例说明分类方法的应用过程。
最后,对全文内容及研究结论进行了总结,并对文中有待进一步深入研究的地方提出日后研究的方向和展望。
With the increasing scarcity of oil resources in our country, many oilfield development projects are turning to difficult mining reserves of low porosity and low permeability. It is necessary to evaluate effects of oilfield exploitation and economic benefits carefully because of the technology risks and economic risks in the development of difficult mining reserves. However, in face of complex oil field explorations and development conditions, oilfield projects workers are only able to give the classification of a single reservoir and physical indicators on the basis of the existing evaluation standards, but not able to give comprehensive evaluation of reserves. In generally speaking, they couldn't fully excavete the existing exploration and development information while depending on the subjective experiences and judgments in the absence of comprehensive evaluation index system, not to mention reflecting the economic evaluation of development blocks accurately. Therefore, according to the principles of comprehensiveness, data integrity, data not average, weak correlation, fairness, strong explanatory principle, the dissertation constructs the evaluation index system of reserves classification, with the index containing development effect, block attribute, economic evaluation. Then this dissertation establishes combination empowerment model to calculate weight of the block attribute index, designs FCM algorithm to determine classification of the development effects of the developed blocks, and builds the undeveloped block classification method combining the FCM classification results with combined empowerment model, BP neural network algorithm, discriminant analysis method. Finally economic evaluation method of reflecting output attenuation effects is proposed according to the development project evaluations of undeveloped blocks. In the process of research, the dissertation always takes more than40blocks of an oilfield in Daqing as an example to explain the application process of difficult reserves classification and economic evaluation method, which obtaines good results.
First of all, the dissertation combines classification of difficult reserves with the current situations and problems of evaluation to illustrate background of selected topic and concluding realistic and theoretical significance of research.
Secondly, the dissertation reviews current research situation relevant research status of classification of difficult reserves and evaluation methods, and puts forward research goals and routes.
Thirdly, this dissertation puts forward six principles of the comprehensiveness of evaluation index of reserves classification, data integrity, data not average, weak correlation of index, fairness, and strong explanatory, and establishes preliminary classification evaluation index system according to the comprehensive and data integrity. Then the dissertation screenings indicators under some principles of data not average, weak correlation of index, fairness and strong explanatory and the combination of experts' advices with research situations. Index system involves three parts of the development effects, block attributes, economic evaluations, its role is to make full use of the relationship between information mining development effects of the developed blocks and attribute indexs, through which we can use the attribute index of undeveloped blocks and predict undeveloped block categories.
Fourthly, this dissertation designes a fuzzy c-means (FCM) algorithm, classifying effect indicators of developed blocks, so as to determine the types of development effects and effects of each category features.we apply this method to the development effect classification of more than30developed blocks in certain oilfield Yu Daqing.
Fifthly, this dissertation builds the combination empowerment model to measure the weights of various properties indexes in evaluating effect index. The model depends on sample datas of developed blocks, meanwhile, the objective function asks experts' predict error and sample data error minimized. So the weighted prediction method combines existing objective sample datas of the blocks and experts' experiences. We take blocks in certain oilfield in Daqing as an example to demonstrate the application of the model.
Sixthly, on the basis of FCM classification of the development effect in the developed blocks, respectively, we use the BP neural network, combination empowerment model, discriminant analysis tools and so on to construct classification method of difficult reserves in the undeveloped blocks.This method fully excavates sample datas of developed blocks, put forward classification method of combination "effect index" with " index of geology and reservoir property", improves the traditional reserves classification method which relies on the subjective judgment and classification of geology, reservoir physical property indexes in the case of lacking" mining effect " in undeveloped block. We take blocks in certain oilfield in Daqing as an example to demonstrate the application of the classification method.
Sevenly, the dissertation constructs economic evaluation methods of the difficult mining reserves of undeveloped blocks and predictes single well production and development costs on the basis of classification results. Then simulate time-production curve and translate Production of the first three months single well into corrected production of each evaluation period to predict cash flow of undeveloped blocks, and calculate the economic evaluation, then changes in sensitivity of development projects. This method makes effective use of the existing sample information of developed blocks, reflects the attenuation effect of oil field production and provides the economic evaluation methods of the oilfield development of undeveloped blocks.We take blocks in certain oilfield in Daqing as an example to demonstrate the application of the classification method.
Finally, the dissertation makes a summary on the research contents and conclusions. Moreover, directions and prospects in the future research worthy of deep-going study are given.
首先,本文结合我国难采储量分类与评价工作的现状与难题,说明本文的选题背景,归纳研究的现实与理论意义。
其次,本文回顾了难采储量分类与评价方法的相关研究现状,提出本文的研究目标、内容与路线。
第三,本文提出了储量分类评价指标的全面性、数据完整性、数据非均值、指标弱相关性、公平性、强解释性6个原则,然后根据全面性、数据完整性建立了初步的分类评价指标体系,结合专家意见和调研情况,在数据非均值、指标弱相关性、公平性、强解释性等原则下,对指标进行了筛选。指标体系涉及开发效果、区块属性、经济评价三个板块,其作用是充分利用已开发区块开发的信息挖掘开发效果与属性指标间的关系,通过此关系利用未开发区块的属性指标值,预测未开发区块的类别。
第四,本文设计了模糊C均值(FCM)算法,对已开发区块效果指标进行分类,从而确定开发效果的类别数及每个类别的效果特征,本文将该方法应用于大庆某油田的30多个已开发区块的开发效果分类。
第五,本文构建了组合赋权模型,测算各属性指标在评价效果指标时所占的权重,模型依托于已开发区块的样本数据,目标函数同时要求专家预测误差和样本数据误差最小化,因此该权重预测方法融合了区块现有的客观样本数据和专家经验。本文以大庆某油田的样本区块为例说明了模型的应用过程。
第六,在对已开发区块的开发效果FCM分类基础上,分别运用BP神经网络、组合赋权模型、判别分析等公共具,构造了未开发区块难采储量分类方法,该方法充分挖掘已开发区块的样本数据,提出了“效果指标”与“地质、储层物性等指标”相结合的分类方法,改进了传统储量分类方法在缺乏未开发区块“开采效果”的情况下,依赖于对“地质、储层物性等指标”的主观判断与分类。本文以大庆某油田为样本区块的例说明分类方法的应用过程。
第七,构造了未开发区块的难采储量经济评价方法,在分类结果的基础上预测单井产量和开发成本,然后模拟“产量—时间”曲线,将前三月单井产量转化为各个评价期的修正产量,以此预测未开发区块的现金流,之后计算开发项目的经济评价指标和灵敏度变动情况。该方法有效利用现有的已开发区块样本信息,反映了油田生产的衰减效应,提供了未开发区块的油田开发经济评价方法。本文以大庆某油田的样本区块为例说明分类方法的应用过程。
最后,对全文内容及研究结论进行了总结,并对文中有待进一步深入研究的地方提出日后研究的方向和展望。
With the increasing scarcity of oil resources in our country, many oilfield development projects are turning to difficult mining reserves of low porosity and low permeability. It is necessary to evaluate effects of oilfield exploitation and economic benefits carefully because of the technology risks and economic risks in the development of difficult mining reserves. However, in face of complex oil field explorations and development conditions, oilfield projects workers are only able to give the classification of a single reservoir and physical indicators on the basis of the existing evaluation standards, but not able to give comprehensive evaluation of reserves. In generally speaking, they couldn't fully excavete the existing exploration and development information while depending on the subjective experiences and judgments in the absence of comprehensive evaluation index system, not to mention reflecting the economic evaluation of development blocks accurately. Therefore, according to the principles of comprehensiveness, data integrity, data not average, weak correlation, fairness, strong explanatory principle, the dissertation constructs the evaluation index system of reserves classification, with the index containing development effect, block attribute, economic evaluation. Then this dissertation establishes combination empowerment model to calculate weight of the block attribute index, designs FCM algorithm to determine classification of the development effects of the developed blocks, and builds the undeveloped block classification method combining the FCM classification results with combined empowerment model, BP neural network algorithm, discriminant analysis method. Finally economic evaluation method of reflecting output attenuation effects is proposed according to the development project evaluations of undeveloped blocks. In the process of research, the dissertation always takes more than40blocks of an oilfield in Daqing as an example to explain the application process of difficult reserves classification and economic evaluation method, which obtaines good results.
First of all, the dissertation combines classification of difficult reserves with the current situations and problems of evaluation to illustrate background of selected topic and concluding realistic and theoretical significance of research.
Secondly, the dissertation reviews current research situation relevant research status of classification of difficult reserves and evaluation methods, and puts forward research goals and routes.
Thirdly, this dissertation puts forward six principles of the comprehensiveness of evaluation index of reserves classification, data integrity, data not average, weak correlation of index, fairness, and strong explanatory, and establishes preliminary classification evaluation index system according to the comprehensive and data integrity. Then the dissertation screenings indicators under some principles of data not average, weak correlation of index, fairness and strong explanatory and the combination of experts' advices with research situations. Index system involves three parts of the development effects, block attributes, economic evaluations, its role is to make full use of the relationship between information mining development effects of the developed blocks and attribute indexs, through which we can use the attribute index of undeveloped blocks and predict undeveloped block categories.
Fourthly, this dissertation designes a fuzzy c-means (FCM) algorithm, classifying effect indicators of developed blocks, so as to determine the types of development effects and effects of each category features.we apply this method to the development effect classification of more than30developed blocks in certain oilfield Yu Daqing.
Fifthly, this dissertation builds the combination empowerment model to measure the weights of various properties indexes in evaluating effect index. The model depends on sample datas of developed blocks, meanwhile, the objective function asks experts' predict error and sample data error minimized. So the weighted prediction method combines existing objective sample datas of the blocks and experts' experiences. We take blocks in certain oilfield in Daqing as an example to demonstrate the application of the model.
Sixthly, on the basis of FCM classification of the development effect in the developed blocks, respectively, we use the BP neural network, combination empowerment model, discriminant analysis tools and so on to construct classification method of difficult reserves in the undeveloped blocks.This method fully excavates sample datas of developed blocks, put forward classification method of combination "effect index" with " index of geology and reservoir property", improves the traditional reserves classification method which relies on the subjective judgment and classification of geology, reservoir physical property indexes in the case of lacking" mining effect " in undeveloped block. We take blocks in certain oilfield in Daqing as an example to demonstrate the application of the classification method.
Sevenly, the dissertation constructs economic evaluation methods of the difficult mining reserves of undeveloped blocks and predictes single well production and development costs on the basis of classification results. Then simulate time-production curve and translate Production of the first three months single well into corrected production of each evaluation period to predict cash flow of undeveloped blocks, and calculate the economic evaluation, then changes in sensitivity of development projects. This method makes effective use of the existing sample information of developed blocks, reflects the attenuation effect of oil field production and provides the economic evaluation methods of the oilfield development of undeveloped blocks.We take blocks in certain oilfield in Daqing as an example to demonstrate the application of the classification method.
Finally, the dissertation makes a summary on the research contents and conclusions. Moreover, directions and prospects in the future research worthy of deep-going study are given.
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