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基于碳排放清单的九寨沟自然保护区碳足迹及碳管理研究
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摘要
气候变化、人类活动强度增加已经成为自然保护区所面临的不可逆的命题,并对其生态环境产生负面影响。作为生态系统极为脆弱的自然保护区,九寨沟未来发展必须在气候变化、旅游增长与环境保护之间寻求平衡。碳足迹是衡量人类活动环境影响的关键工具,通过碳足迹评价可以找出九寨沟自然保护区的碳减排关键因子,提出有针对性的碳减排措施。碳管理关注以最低成本实现碳减排,是碳足迹评价的后续性工作。本文引入基于混合生命周期的碳排放清单,全面统计九寨沟自然保护区边界内的碳排放,评价其碳足迹,找出碳减排关键因子和潜力因子并进行碳减排管理,可以为自然保护区的环境管理提供新思路。
     碳足迹评价和碳管理已经成为国内外研究的新方向和新热点,但还存在一些不足。首先,相对于全球变化对保护区生态环境和旅游资源的影响研究,旅游地人类活动碳足迹评价及其对生态平衡的影响研究较少;并且由于旅游业不是国民核算体系的传统部门,国内外缺少对自然保护区人类活动和旅游业碳排放准确而全面的统计。旅游碳足迹评价多集中在能源消耗方面,对自然保护区中废弃物和土地利用产生的碳排放较少涉及,基于碳排放清单的旅游碳足迹评价研究集中在国家等大尺度层面,对自然保护区类的区域小尺度研究需要推进。其次,旅游碳足迹评价多是基于生命周期方法的某一主体或某类活动碳排放的具体分析,而对自然保护区特定边界内人类活动碳足迹的研究欠缺,其碳排放分析多集中于客源地到目的地的交通上碳排放分析上,对保护区内部碳排放的具体状况难于全面了解。再次,保护区碳管理的研究多集中低碳管理、减碳政策及措施分析上,对碳管理机制缺乏宏观和整体分析。
     论文的研究目标是提出基于混合生命周期碳排放清单的自然保护区碳足迹评价模型,并在此基础上提出具有区域适宜性的碳管理机制。论文在借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上,借鉴环境生态学、旅游学、社会学、管理学等相关学科的理论,采用理论演绎、模型构建、实证研究、GIS和统计分析等相结合的方法。首先,论文参考国际上通用的多种温室气体排放清单,并结合对自然保护区内游客活动的过程分析,提出基于混合生命周期的自然保护区碳排放清单,依据清单对九寨沟各排放源的碳排放与碳储存进行分析。其次,设计碳足迹评价模型,对九寨沟的碳足迹和碳平衡的动态变化进行分对九寨沟碳排放进行统计分析。再次,基于流程管理提出自然保护区的碳管理机制,对九寨沟现有的碳管理进行改进。论文研究目的是分析人类活动对九寨沟自然保护区的环境影响,确定碳减排的关键因子,探索九寨沟自然保护区的碳管理机制,促进自然保护区的可持续发展。
     论文研究结论如下:
     首先,2012年九寨沟人类活动碳排放集中在建设用地。依据九寨沟2012年碳排放清单对九寨沟碳排放的碳汇构成、主体构成、地点分布进行分析,发现:从碳源构成看,能源消耗是九寨沟碳排放主要来源,2012年能源碳排放占九寨沟碳排放总量的81.86%,其余为废弃物碳排放。从主体及活动类型看,旅游活动所产生的碳排放占总量的88.89%,其中最主要来自保护区经营性公司的商业活动,其他依次为游客的游览活动和管理局的管理维护活动;居民生活碳排放来自村寨日常生活和私家车驾驶。从地点分布看,保护区公路的碳排放量最大,占总量的44.89%,主要是燃油消耗;其次为保护区旅游区(22.43%),主要是废弃物排放;再次为沟口(20.62%)、村寨(10.4%)、诺日朗中心碳排放最小(1.67%)。
     其次,九寨沟土地利用经历森林采伐、旅游开发、停止采伐恢复植被、退耕还林、减少经营用地等重大变化,使得九寨沟土地碳储量相应地出现了先减少后增长的局面。从1986年到2012年,九寨沟自然保护区的碳储量总量增长了5%。九寨沟保护区的平均碳密度远高于国内平均水平,尤其森林植被的平均碳密度是国内平均3-4倍,碳汇作用非常突出。土壤是九寨沟碳储量的主要来源,其碳储存是九寨沟碳储存总量的69%,是土地植被碳汇的2.2倍。林地是九寨沟最大碳库,贡献了85%的碳储量。
     再次,在今后相当长的一段时期内,九寨沟碳足迹增长的趋势不可能改变,即使是出现灾害疾病经济危机等大事件,其影响也会是阶段性的,随着旅游恢复碳足迹仍旧会增长。根据库格涅茨曲线进行九寨沟碳足迹的峰值分析,则九寨沟人类生活碳足迹的峰值可能出现在9000-10000hm2之间,此后可能会逐步下降。
     第四,九寨沟自然保护区的生态平衡良好,虽然生态碳平衡指数自1975年来整体呈增加态势,但到2012年仅为0.078,说明人类活动对九寨沟整个生态系统造成的干扰很小。这意味着九寨沟自然保护区的生态系统提供的具有生产力的土地总供给与吸纳人类活动碳足迹之间存在巨大的生态盈余,不仅可以支撑九寨沟未来旅游业的持续发展,也可以为我国生态环境做出巨大贡献,提供大量碳汇。
     第五,九寨沟碳管理应该包含碳源控制、碳汇建设和碳平衡推进。九寨沟碳管理的具体实施应从土地利用的优化、居民和游客人数控制、利益主体的减排责任分担,产业与消费结构转型、碳汇与减碳技术、政策支持等几方面着手。
     第六,论文发现九寨沟存在环境邻避现象。2012年九寨沟47.3%碳足迹被转移至保护区之外,只有52.7%还在保护区之内。52.7%碳排放所产生的碳足迹为2041.0497hm2,仅占九寨沟具有生物生产力面积的3.13%。九寨沟自然保护区碳足迹的外部转移反映了环境成本的转移或转嫁,或者是环境外部性问题和自然保护区的邻避效应的存在。自然保护区的环境邻避具有十分积极的作用,一方面减少碳足迹的环境影响防止某些土地利用由碳汇向碳源转化,另一方面有利于增加碳汇从而提升碳汇交易的收益。
     综上,本文在以下几个方面进行了创新:一是选题创新:将碳足迹、碳管理、生态环境保护几个研究热点结合起来,选题又切中九寨沟旅游增长过快环境压力加大的现实问题,选题具有理论创新和应用创新;二是方法创新:提出基于混合生命周期的自然保护区碳足迹评价模型;二是视角创新:将自然保护区的旅游活动碳排放和居民、商业、管理部门的碳排放综合考虑,将碳足迹评价和碳管理机制综合分析。
     本文还存在一些不足,有待后续深入:一是由于数据有限而无法进行碳足迹的时间变动分析;二是碳排放系数法和NPP法虽适用性强但不够准确,以后可以尝试实测法弥补该不足;三是论文对碳管理机制的研究还没有深入,有待继续丰富完善。
Climate change and rapid growth of human activities have become an irreversible proposition that Jiuzhaigou Nature Reserve is facing, and exerted negative impacts on its natural environment. As extremely fragile ecosystem Nature Reserve is, in the future Jiuzhaigou must seek a balance between climate change, tourism growth and environmental protection to realize sustainable development. Carbon emissions are the main cause of human-induced climate change, and its footprint has become critical tool to measure the environmental impacts of human activities. Carbon footprint could identify key factors of carbon emission in Jiuzhaigou Nature Reserve, and propose targeted carbon reduction measures. Carbon management focused on how to achieve carbon emission reduction at the lowest cost, which is follow-up work of carbon footprint assessment. This paper introduced carbon inventory based on hybrid life cycle, and caculated carbon emissions of Jiuzhaigou Nature Reserve comprehensively, evaluated their carbon footprint to identify key and potential factors of carbon emissions, and explored carbon management machanics, which provided new ideas.for environmental management of nature reserve.
     Carbon footprint evaluation and carbon management had become a new direction and a new hot spot of related research at home and abroad, but there were still some shortcomings.First of all, with respect to global change impact study on ecological environment and tourism resources, studies of tourism activities'carbon footprint assessment and its impacts on the ecological balance were less; moreover, because tourism was not a sectors included in National Statistics at home and abroad there was lack of studies on human activities on nature reserves and tourism carbon emissions accurate and comprehensive statistics. Also most of travel carbon footprint evaluations focused on energy consumption, secondly being involved with Nature Reserve waste and land use carbon emissions generated. Based on the carbon emissions inventories travel carbon footprint evaluation studies mostly focused on the national large-scale level, small-scale studies needed to be moved forward. Secondly, present tourism carbon footprint evaluations are mostly based on specific carbon emissions analysis of the life-cycle approach to from some subject or certain activities, but there were lack of carbon footprint study of human activities within the particular boundaries of nature reserve while not considering traffic carbon emissions from customer source to the destination, so the specific conditions of carbon emissions within the protected area is difficult to fully understand. Again, the studies on carbon management in nature reserves were more concentrated on low-carbon management, carbon reduction policies and measures, there were lack of macro-and overall analysis of the carbon management mechanism.
     The goal of this thesis is to put forward proposed Nature Reserve carbon footprint evaluation model based on the mixed life cycle carbon emissions inventory and carbon management mechanism based on regional suitability. The paper learned related theories and knowledge from environmental ecology, tourism, sociology, management and other related disciplines theory, in practical studies chose theoretical interpretation, model building, and combination of methods of empirical research, GIS and statistical analysis. First of all, the paper refereed to a variety of common international greenhouse gas emission inventories and analysis, combined with the process of tourist activities in the nature reserve nature reserves, raised carbon emissions inventory based on hybrid life cycle, which listed out the emission sources carbon emissions and carbon storage in Jiuzhaigou. Secondly, the paper designed of the carbon footprint evaluation model, which analyzed Jiuzhaigou carbon balance and its dynamic changes based on long term analysis. Again, the paper suggested process management to improve Jiuzhaigou existing carbon management. The thesis is designed to test the carbon emission of the carbon in the nature reserve, to analyze the changes of the carbon footprint and carbon balance, to identify the carbon emission distinction between different locations, activities, and subjects in nature reserve, to raise carbon management mechanism to improve the sustainalble development of nature reserves. The thesis conclusions are as follows:
     First, in2012carbon emissions of Jiuzhaigou human activity happened in the land for construction. Based on the2012carbon emissions inventory, Jiuzhaigou's carbon emissions were less than carbon sinks in the main form. The paper carried out analysis of the contribution of different stakeholders, sources, and geographical distribution. According to the carbon source analysis, energy consumption is the main source of the Jiuzhaigou carbon emissions, energy carbon emissions in2012accounted for the Jiuzhaigou carbon emissions81.86%of the total. According to the analysis of the types of activities, the carbon emissions generated by tourism activities accounted for88.89%of the total, of which the biggest emissions were from the operating company's business activities in nature reserve, followed by maintenance activities for tourist excursions and management of the Jiuzhaigou Authority; residents'carbon emissions come from the village everyday life and the drivers of private cars. According to the analysis of the geographical distribution, highways contributed largest carbon emissions, accounting for44.89%of the total fuel consumption; followed by tourist areas (22.43%), waste emissions; once again entry area (20.62%), villages (10.4%), and Nuorilang(1.67%).
     Secondly, Jiuzhaigou land use experienced deforestation, tourism development, stopping the logging, restoring vegetation and forest, reducing construction land use, etc., which benefitted Jiuzhaigou land carbon storage. From1986to2012, in Jiuzhaigou Nature Reserve, total carbon storage increased by5%. Jiuzhaigou average carbon density of the nature reserve was much higher than the national average level, especially the average carbon density of the forest vegetation3-4times of average, having played very prominent role of carbon sinks. Soil is the main source of Jiuzhaigou carbon storage, its carbon storage is69%of the total amount of carbon stored in Jiuzhaigou,2.2times the land vegetation carbon sinks. The forest is the largest carbon pool in Jiuzhaigou, contributed85%of the carbon reserves.
     Thirdly, in the future for a long period of time, the growth trend of Jiuzhaigou carbon footprint would be unlikely to change, even if there would have a big event, disaster, disease, or economic crisis, whose impacts will also be staged, with the tourism recovery carbon footprint will still be growth. Under EKC analysis, the paper assumed that there were inverted U-shaped relationship between China's urban per capita disposable income and Jiuzhaigou human carbon footprint of human activities, the peak of Jiuzhaigou carbon footprint of human activities might appear in the9000-10000hm2, Since then might gradually decline.
     Fourth, the ecological balance of the Jiuzhaigou Nature Reserve was extremely good, although the ecological balance of the index showed an increasing trend since1975as a whole, but only7.8%in2012. It could be concluded the interference caused by human activities on the entire ecosystem in Jiuzhaigou is very small. This shows that there is a huge ecological surplus, which can not only support the sustainable development of tourism in Jiuzhaigou Jiuzhaigou Nature Reserve of ecosystems to provide a total supply of productive land to absorb the carbon produced by human activities footprint, but also for China make a significant contribution to the ecological environment, to provide a large number of carbon sinks.
     Fifth, Jiuzhaigou carbon management should contain carbon source control, construction of carbon sinks and carbon balance forward. The concrete implementation of the Jiuzhaigou carbon management should be the optimization of land use, the number of residents and visitors control, shared responsibility of stakeholders, restructuring of industry and consumption, introduction of carbon sequestration and carbon reduction technology, offering policy support.
     Sixth, the paper found that the presence of NIMBY phenomenon in Jiuzhaigou's environmental impacts. In201247.3%of Jiuzhaigou carbon footprint is transferred to the outside of the nature reserve, only52.7%stayed in nature reserve.52.7%of the carbon emissions generated by carbon footprint for2041.0497hm2, accounted for only3.13%of the Jiuzhaigou biologically productive area. Carbon footprint's being transferred to the external areas of Jiuzhaigou Nature Reserve reflected the transferring or being passed of environmental costs, or the NIMBY effect of nature reserves and the presence of environmental externalities. NIMBY could play a very active role in protecting local environment, on the one hand, to reduce the environmental impact of the carbon footprint and prevent carbon sink to a carbon source by land using changing; on the other hand, to help to increase carbon sequestration and carbon storage, so as to enhance income by trading carbon sinks.
     In summary, the papers made some innovations:First, in topics Innovation, this article combined present research hotspots, such as carbon footprint, carbon management, ecological and environmental protection, and hit practical development problems of Jiuzhaigou national park. Second, in methodology, the paper carbon footprint proposed evaluation model based on hybrid life cycle of nature reserves. Thirdly, in perspective innovation, the paper used carbon footprint assessment and carbon management mechanism comprehensively, and analyzed the carbon emissions of the tourism activities and residents on the whole.
     Thesis could be improved in the following aspects:First, temporal and spatial distribution analysis of carbon footprint can be riched by collecting more dada; second, the caculation of carbon emission and carbon footprint can be more accurate by field measurement; third, research papers on the mechanism of carbon management could be further enriched and improved.
引文
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