高速公路隧道施工全过程风险动态分析与反馈设计方法研究
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摘要
高速公路隧道工程作为地下工程，具有隐蔽性、复杂性、不确定性等特点，投资风险较大，在施工过程中可能随时因风险的发生而造成不可挽回的损失。随着我国高速公路的快速发展，如何控制隧道施工过程中的各种风险，实现安全、经济、高效的管理目标成为了亟待解决的问题。
论文在对国内外隧道工程静态及动态风险研究现状进行分析的基础上，首先对隧道工程及其风险发生机理进行了分析，并提出了隧道动态风险评估流程，分析了四种常用风险分析方法的特点、隧道风险等级及接受准则等在风险管理中的应用。将工作分解结构和风险分解结构（WBS-RBS）应用于隧道施工动态风险分析，耦合二者来实现对隧道施工风险的识别，针对隧道施工中主要的施工方法、工序、关键部位施工及安全作业等方面，通过分析施工阶段的各种风险发生的原因、可能产生的后果等探讨了隧道施工中的风险构成。
对风险管理所需要的信息采集和预报进行了研究，针对隧道特质提出了TSP远程地质探测预报与地质雷达近距离探测相结合的综合地质预报系统，以及风险动态管理必不可少的监控量测动态数据采集手段。
结合隧道工程特点及其施工的复杂性，提出了将目前常用的风险分析方法综合应用于隧道工程风险分析的流程，针对目前普遍采用的新奥法隧道施工以及新奥法施工不可或缺的监控量测手段，建立了一个基于监控量测的隧道施工风险评价模型，通过模型可以计算出各量测指标的综合风险指数以及对隧道施工安全的影响程度，依据风险高低来采取控制措施。
将隧道风险分析和反馈设计相结合，提出了基于动态风险分析的隧道施工动态反馈设计流程、实施要点和设计方法，根据动态风险分析结果对隧道预设计进行必要的修改和调整，充分发挥了两者在指导隧道施工、确保施工安全中的作用。
针对目前隧道工程动态风险管理存在的问题，参照企业风险管理体系的构建思路和高速公路隧道施工中的一些具体做法，提出了高速公路动态风险管理体系，即隧道施工动态风险管理三层结构体系，并提出了实践中切实可用的一些措施和方法。
以保阜高速公路为依托，分别验证了上述理论和方法的应用。
As a type of underground works, the expressway tunnel project is featured withconcealment, complexity, uncertainty and huge investment risks. Uncorrectable losses maybe generated due to possible risks during the construction process. With the rapiddevelopment of our expressway, how to control various risks during the tunnel constructionand how to realize safe, economic and highly-efficient management objective has become anurgent problem.
The paper, based on analysis over current status of static and dynamic risks of tunnelworks at home and abroad, has firstly analyzed tunnel works and its risk occurrencemechanism, explored risk components of tunnel construction, proposed evaluation flow fordynamic risks of tunnels and analyzed characteristics of four common risk analysis methods,risk levels of tunnels as well as the application of acceptance standards in risk management.
Work breakdown structure (WBS) and risk breakdown structure (RBS) are used inanalysis over dynamic risks during tunnel construction. Monitoring items for dynamic risksarising from expressway construction and highway tunnel construction based on WBS-RBSare proposed. Therefore, information collection and forecast necessary for risk managementare being researched. A comprehensive geological forecast system combining TSP remotegeological detection and forecast and close-range detection by geological radar and a meansfor the collection of monitoring and measurement dynamic data indispensable to dynamicmanagement of risks are proposed according to characteristics of tunnels.
A flow to incorporate common risk analysis methods into risk analysis of tunnel works isproposed taking into consideration of characteristics and construction complexity of tunnelworks. A risk evaluation model for tunnel construction based on monitoring andmeasurement is established in allusion to widely adopted new Austrian tunneling method andindispensable monitoring and measurement means of new Austrian tunneling method. Thecomprehensive risk indexes of various measurement indicators as well as their impact ontunnel construction can be calculated through the model. Then, control measures can beadopted according to risks.
Dynamic feedback design flow, key implementation points and design methods fortunnel construction based on dynamic analysis are proposed by integrating risk analysis oftunnels with feedback design. Necessary modifications and adjustments are carried out forpre-design of tunnels according to analysis results of dynamic risks, which can full exerttheir role in guiding tunnel construction and ensuring construction safety.
In allusion to problems existing in the management of dynamic risks of tunnel works, anexpressway dynamic risk management system is formulated in accordance with thedevelopment idea of risk management system of enterprises and some practices during expressway tunnel construction, i.e., three-tier system for management of dynamic riskduring tunnel construction. Meanwhile, feasible measures and methods during practices areproposed.
The application of aforementioned theories and methods are verified respectively throughBaoding–Fuping Expressway.
论文在对国内外隧道工程静态及动态风险研究现状进行分析的基础上，首先对隧道工程及其风险发生机理进行了分析，并提出了隧道动态风险评估流程，分析了四种常用风险分析方法的特点、隧道风险等级及接受准则等在风险管理中的应用。将工作分解结构和风险分解结构（WBS-RBS）应用于隧道施工动态风险分析，耦合二者来实现对隧道施工风险的识别，针对隧道施工中主要的施工方法、工序、关键部位施工及安全作业等方面，通过分析施工阶段的各种风险发生的原因、可能产生的后果等探讨了隧道施工中的风险构成。
对风险管理所需要的信息采集和预报进行了研究，针对隧道特质提出了TSP远程地质探测预报与地质雷达近距离探测相结合的综合地质预报系统，以及风险动态管理必不可少的监控量测动态数据采集手段。
结合隧道工程特点及其施工的复杂性，提出了将目前常用的风险分析方法综合应用于隧道工程风险分析的流程，针对目前普遍采用的新奥法隧道施工以及新奥法施工不可或缺的监控量测手段，建立了一个基于监控量测的隧道施工风险评价模型，通过模型可以计算出各量测指标的综合风险指数以及对隧道施工安全的影响程度，依据风险高低来采取控制措施。
将隧道风险分析和反馈设计相结合，提出了基于动态风险分析的隧道施工动态反馈设计流程、实施要点和设计方法，根据动态风险分析结果对隧道预设计进行必要的修改和调整，充分发挥了两者在指导隧道施工、确保施工安全中的作用。
针对目前隧道工程动态风险管理存在的问题，参照企业风险管理体系的构建思路和高速公路隧道施工中的一些具体做法，提出了高速公路动态风险管理体系，即隧道施工动态风险管理三层结构体系，并提出了实践中切实可用的一些措施和方法。
以保阜高速公路为依托，分别验证了上述理论和方法的应用。
As a type of underground works, the expressway tunnel project is featured withconcealment, complexity, uncertainty and huge investment risks. Uncorrectable losses maybe generated due to possible risks during the construction process. With the rapiddevelopment of our expressway, how to control various risks during the tunnel constructionand how to realize safe, economic and highly-efficient management objective has become anurgent problem.
The paper, based on analysis over current status of static and dynamic risks of tunnelworks at home and abroad, has firstly analyzed tunnel works and its risk occurrencemechanism, explored risk components of tunnel construction, proposed evaluation flow fordynamic risks of tunnels and analyzed characteristics of four common risk analysis methods,risk levels of tunnels as well as the application of acceptance standards in risk management.
Work breakdown structure (WBS) and risk breakdown structure (RBS) are used inanalysis over dynamic risks during tunnel construction. Monitoring items for dynamic risksarising from expressway construction and highway tunnel construction based on WBS-RBSare proposed. Therefore, information collection and forecast necessary for risk managementare being researched. A comprehensive geological forecast system combining TSP remotegeological detection and forecast and close-range detection by geological radar and a meansfor the collection of monitoring and measurement dynamic data indispensable to dynamicmanagement of risks are proposed according to characteristics of tunnels.
A flow to incorporate common risk analysis methods into risk analysis of tunnel works isproposed taking into consideration of characteristics and construction complexity of tunnelworks. A risk evaluation model for tunnel construction based on monitoring andmeasurement is established in allusion to widely adopted new Austrian tunneling method andindispensable monitoring and measurement means of new Austrian tunneling method. Thecomprehensive risk indexes of various measurement indicators as well as their impact ontunnel construction can be calculated through the model. Then, control measures can beadopted according to risks.
Dynamic feedback design flow, key implementation points and design methods fortunnel construction based on dynamic analysis are proposed by integrating risk analysis oftunnels with feedback design. Necessary modifications and adjustments are carried out forpre-design of tunnels according to analysis results of dynamic risks, which can full exerttheir role in guiding tunnel construction and ensuring construction safety.
In allusion to problems existing in the management of dynamic risks of tunnel works, anexpressway dynamic risk management system is formulated in accordance with thedevelopment idea of risk management system of enterprises and some practices during expressway tunnel construction, i.e., three-tier system for management of dynamic riskduring tunnel construction. Meanwhile, feasible measures and methods during practices areproposed.
The application of aforementioned theories and methods are verified respectively throughBaoding–Fuping Expressway.
引文
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