基于概率可靠度的人员安全疏散不确定性问题研究
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摘要
火灾发生后,如何确保人员的生命安全是最值得关注的问题,也是首要的安全目标。火灾的发生和发展具有着双重性的规律,人员安全疏散同样具有确定性和不确定性的双重特点。由于人员安全疏散的影响因素众多,存在着很多的不确定性,因此如何正确处理这些不确定性是需要深入研究的关键技术问题。本文是利用概率可靠度的方法对人员安全疏散的不确定性问题进行研究,通过本文的研究,对于提高火灾环境下的人员安全疏散具有重要的指导意义。
本文从人员特征、建筑结构特点和火源情况三个方面系统分析了建筑火灾人员安全疏散的不确定性影响因素。有效集成了DEMATEL和ISM两种方法。运用ISM方法构建了建筑火灾人员安全疏散影响因素的结构化模型,分析了影响人员安全疏散的表层原因、浅层原因和深层原因。利用DEMATEL方法对人员安全疏散的影响因素进行了定量分析,同时对人员安全疏散的影响因素进行了数学表征。分析了各因素之间的综合影响关系及各因素对人员安全疏散的影响程度,找到了影响人员安全疏散的关键影响因素。该研究可以为相关部门的管理和决策提供一定的科学依据。
探讨了表征人员疏散安全水平的基本理论和方法,通过比对可用安全疏散时间和必需安全疏散时间,引入安全时间余量来表征人员疏散的安全水平,通过求解概率可靠度指标和失效概率来定量评价人员疏散的安全情况。通过正交试验、响应面法建立了以烟气层温度和烟气层高度分别作为判据的可用安全疏散时间的随机模型。在此基础上,构建了以烟气层温度和烟气层高度分别作为判据的人员安全疏散的概率可靠度分析模型,研究了两个可靠度分析模型之间的串并联关系,提出了根据两者之间的串并联关系求解多种模式失效下的体系失效概率的计算方法。
介绍了用于求解概率可靠度指标的常用计算方法,均值一次二阶矩法、改进的一次二阶矩法、当量正态化法和蒙特卡罗方法。分析了各种方法的优缺点及适用范围,针对其他方法存在的不足,在前人基础上发展了用于求解概率可靠度指标的优化算法,利用两个人员安全疏散的概率可靠度分析模型加以实例进行了验证。另外就本文所建的概率可靠度分析模型和已有模型进行了对比研究。同时,研究了火灾增长系数、建筑高度和安全出口宽度对可靠度指标和失效概率的影响关系。
引入了可靠性灵敏度和灵敏度梯度的理论和方法,通过实例分析了人员安全疏散各个影响因素的灵敏度,通过失效概率对均值和标准差的偏导数,研究了火灾增长系数、人员响应时间、人员密度和门的出口涌流能力参数的分布情况对人员安全疏散的影响关系。
How to ensure the life safety of occupant is the primary objectives and more attention should be paid to when fire occurs.the occurrence and development of fire have both the rule of certainty and randomicity, occupant safety evacuation also has the double characteristic. Since various factors can affect occupant safety evacuation and exist lots of uncertainty. Therefore, how to deal with this uncertainty properly needs to further studied. The uncertainty of occupant safety evacuation is studied using probabilistic reliability theory in this article, this study is helpful to improve the occupant safety evacuation of fire environment.
Influencing factors of occupant safety evacuation under building fires are firstly analyzed and identified based on occupant characteristics, building characteristics and fire characteristics. Decision-Making and Trial Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method and Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) method are effectively combined. Firstly, a structural model of influencing factors of occupant safety evacuation is established using the ISM method, and the reasons of surface, shallow and deep affecting the occupant safety evacuation are found and classified. Quantitative analysis and mathematical characterization of these influencing factors are then carried out using the DEMATEL approach. Finally,the influence relationship and influence degree of each factor are examined, and the key influencing factors affecting the occupant safety evacuation are identified. This study can provide scientific fundamentals for management and decision making of related departments.
The basic theory and method expressing safety level of occupant evacuation is discussed firstly, escape safety time margin is used to express safety level of occupant evacuation by the comparison between the available safety evacuation time (ASET) and the required safety evacuation time (RSET), reliability index and probability of failure are then solved to evaluate the evacuation level. Two criterions of available safety evacuation time (ASET) are determined based on the temperature and the height of smoke layer, and two stochastic model of ASET are then established using orthogonal design and response surface method, respectively. Finally, two model of probabilistic reliability of occupant evacuation are determined, their series parallel connection are analyzed and studied, and the method for solving system failure probability are further put forward.
The common methods for solving reliability index are introduced and analyzed, first order second moment method (FOSM), advanced first order second moment method (AFOSM), JC method and Monte Carlo method. The advantages, disadvantages and scope of these methods are analyzed, then the optimization method are put forward and developed based on these methods, and these methods are compared with each other by application examples. In addition,comparative analysis is employed between the model of probabilistic reliability established in this article and existing model. Finally, the relationship of three parameters (fire growth rate, building height and safety exit width) affecting reliability index and probability of failure are further studied.
The fundamental theory and method of reliability sensitivity are introduced, the sensitivity of occupant safety evacuation are analyzed by application examples, the relationship of the distribution of four parameters (fire growth rate, occupant response time, occupant density and the specific flow capacity of a doorway) affecting occupant safety evacuation are further analyzed and studied based on the partial derivative of probability of failure to mean value and standard deviation.
本文从人员特征、建筑结构特点和火源情况三个方面系统分析了建筑火灾人员安全疏散的不确定性影响因素。有效集成了DEMATEL和ISM两种方法。运用ISM方法构建了建筑火灾人员安全疏散影响因素的结构化模型,分析了影响人员安全疏散的表层原因、浅层原因和深层原因。利用DEMATEL方法对人员安全疏散的影响因素进行了定量分析,同时对人员安全疏散的影响因素进行了数学表征。分析了各因素之间的综合影响关系及各因素对人员安全疏散的影响程度,找到了影响人员安全疏散的关键影响因素。该研究可以为相关部门的管理和决策提供一定的科学依据。
探讨了表征人员疏散安全水平的基本理论和方法,通过比对可用安全疏散时间和必需安全疏散时间,引入安全时间余量来表征人员疏散的安全水平,通过求解概率可靠度指标和失效概率来定量评价人员疏散的安全情况。通过正交试验、响应面法建立了以烟气层温度和烟气层高度分别作为判据的可用安全疏散时间的随机模型。在此基础上,构建了以烟气层温度和烟气层高度分别作为判据的人员安全疏散的概率可靠度分析模型,研究了两个可靠度分析模型之间的串并联关系,提出了根据两者之间的串并联关系求解多种模式失效下的体系失效概率的计算方法。
介绍了用于求解概率可靠度指标的常用计算方法,均值一次二阶矩法、改进的一次二阶矩法、当量正态化法和蒙特卡罗方法。分析了各种方法的优缺点及适用范围,针对其他方法存在的不足,在前人基础上发展了用于求解概率可靠度指标的优化算法,利用两个人员安全疏散的概率可靠度分析模型加以实例进行了验证。另外就本文所建的概率可靠度分析模型和已有模型进行了对比研究。同时,研究了火灾增长系数、建筑高度和安全出口宽度对可靠度指标和失效概率的影响关系。
引入了可靠性灵敏度和灵敏度梯度的理论和方法,通过实例分析了人员安全疏散各个影响因素的灵敏度,通过失效概率对均值和标准差的偏导数,研究了火灾增长系数、人员响应时间、人员密度和门的出口涌流能力参数的分布情况对人员安全疏散的影响关系。
How to ensure the life safety of occupant is the primary objectives and more attention should be paid to when fire occurs.the occurrence and development of fire have both the rule of certainty and randomicity, occupant safety evacuation also has the double characteristic. Since various factors can affect occupant safety evacuation and exist lots of uncertainty. Therefore, how to deal with this uncertainty properly needs to further studied. The uncertainty of occupant safety evacuation is studied using probabilistic reliability theory in this article, this study is helpful to improve the occupant safety evacuation of fire environment.
Influencing factors of occupant safety evacuation under building fires are firstly analyzed and identified based on occupant characteristics, building characteristics and fire characteristics. Decision-Making and Trial Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method and Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) method are effectively combined. Firstly, a structural model of influencing factors of occupant safety evacuation is established using the ISM method, and the reasons of surface, shallow and deep affecting the occupant safety evacuation are found and classified. Quantitative analysis and mathematical characterization of these influencing factors are then carried out using the DEMATEL approach. Finally,the influence relationship and influence degree of each factor are examined, and the key influencing factors affecting the occupant safety evacuation are identified. This study can provide scientific fundamentals for management and decision making of related departments.
The basic theory and method expressing safety level of occupant evacuation is discussed firstly, escape safety time margin is used to express safety level of occupant evacuation by the comparison between the available safety evacuation time (ASET) and the required safety evacuation time (RSET), reliability index and probability of failure are then solved to evaluate the evacuation level. Two criterions of available safety evacuation time (ASET) are determined based on the temperature and the height of smoke layer, and two stochastic model of ASET are then established using orthogonal design and response surface method, respectively. Finally, two model of probabilistic reliability of occupant evacuation are determined, their series parallel connection are analyzed and studied, and the method for solving system failure probability are further put forward.
The common methods for solving reliability index are introduced and analyzed, first order second moment method (FOSM), advanced first order second moment method (AFOSM), JC method and Monte Carlo method. The advantages, disadvantages and scope of these methods are analyzed, then the optimization method are put forward and developed based on these methods, and these methods are compared with each other by application examples. In addition,comparative analysis is employed between the model of probabilistic reliability established in this article and existing model. Finally, the relationship of three parameters (fire growth rate, building height and safety exit width) affecting reliability index and probability of failure are further studied.
The fundamental theory and method of reliability sensitivity are introduced, the sensitivity of occupant safety evacuation are analyzed by application examples, the relationship of the distribution of four parameters (fire growth rate, occupant response time, occupant density and the specific flow capacity of a doorway) affecting occupant safety evacuation are further analyzed and studied based on the partial derivative of probability of failure to mean value and standard deviation.
引文
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