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环境/福利导向的生产率及其在经济发展评价中的应用
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摘要
长期以来,我国的地区或企业在追求经济快速增长的过程中极少考虑生产行为对生态环境及公众福利可能产生的负面影响,这种拼资源、拼人力、高排放的先污染后治理的发展模式不仅透支了环境和资源,而且也过度透支了人力资本。这一增长模式下,我国经济取得了长足的增长,从经济规模上来看,我国在2010年已经超过日本成为世界上第二大经济体,然而,人民并未充分享受到经济增长带来的益处;20世纪90年代以后,随着人口红利的逐渐消失,资源短缺,环境污染及养老、医疗、教育等社会福利问题日益突出,能源、资源及环境的约束已然成为经济可持续发展的主要威胁。
     经济增长、生态环境和社会福利如何均衡发展已然成为当代社会共同关注的重大课题。当前中国发展面临的“两难”问题是既要保持一定的经济增长速度,又要避免经济发展过程中的生态破坏及资源枯竭。增长本身不是目的,而是一种创造更好生活条件的手段,单一的经济增长指标已经无法全面表征和衡量经济社会发展的真实状况,一味的追求经济高速增长的发展模式极有可能使得经济社会发展陷入低效率的恶性循环。纵观社会发展进程,生产率反映了经济活动的效率和效益,是治理经济生产活动的重要变量,生产率是实现经济增长和改善福利的关键因素,它考虑了投入和产出因素的双重作用,并且其变化一直与经济的增长有着密切的联系,因而得到了广泛的应用,但是,传统的生产率理论把经济增长作为核心内容,他们的成果没有将环境污染和日益增长的福利要求包括在内,因而也不能准确地反映社会经济发展的真实状况。
     针对上述提出的“两难”问题,本文认为有必要花费一些时间来重新认识生产率的问题,重新从生产率的角度来反思国家及企业的发展模式,为成功转变经济增长方式提供一个较好的路径。鉴于此,本文从生产过程出发,寻找生产率背后的影响因素,并以此为依据拓展生产率的概念,使之能够更加符合当前时代实际需要;实证分析上,本文将拓展后的生产率概念运用到地区中观层面的分析上;在微观企业层面的研究上,本文对企业环境和经济绩效之间的关系进行了梳理。本文的研究成果和创新点主要有:
     1.生产率的大小是由生产力诸要素在生产过程中的有效利用程度决定的。生产过程是一个人、自然与社会交互作用的动态过程,一般来说,生产过程包含了生产技术过程和社会经济过程,这一过程与社会和经济的体制因素密切相关。从“以较小费用取得较大成果”的经济性要求和生产率主体的主动性说,二者之间需要一个管理过程的介入。通过这一管理过程,实现人与社会及人与自然的共存。从对生产过程的这一分解出发,本文将生产率的概念进行了拓展,拓展后的生产率(全生产率)不仅包含经济层面的效率和效益,更包含了社会福利和生态环境等因素,这使得生产率的概念更加符合了社会发展实践。
     2.作为一个规范性概念,可持续发展是一个包含了经济、环境、社会和制度目标在内的四个维度的动态优化过程,实际上,经济增长的规模和质量显著地影响着生物圈,并且正在降低着其维持经济继续发展的能力;以社会产能为基础,本文认为可持续发展指的是自然资源通过经济体返回到大自然的熵物质流不能下降,可持续发展的目标是平衡人与生态自然的关系,而生态系统是一个承载能力有限的不能增长的母系统,它包括了社会福利、经济和环境三个子系统。从实现人与生态持续发展的角度出发,结合已有的研究,本文对地区或企业生产过程中与生态环境和社会福利有关的投入产出因素进行了详细分析,并且给出了具体的指标体系。
     3.不少研究者试图把环境排放等不良产出包含在生产率的测量中,并发展了运用数据包络分析的非参数方法求解Malmquist-Luenberger生产率指数的方法,因此本文首先对方向性距离函数和Malmquist-Luenberger指数进行了理论上的解释,并给出Malmquist-Luenberger指数和传统Malmquist指数之间的关系,为计算我国地区的生产率增长指数奠定理论方法的基础。我国分阶段逐步推行的改革开放政策对各地区的影响存在很大差异,本文以照国务院发展研究中心最新公布的中国大陆8大社会经济区域为研究对象,运用上述的理论方法和指标体系,分别计算了全国30个地区,8个社会区域的生产率变化及其分解因素的发展情况。实证分析结果如下:
     (1).Wilcoxon秩和检验和核密度图分析表明,本文计算的传统生产率、全生产率、环境及福利导向的生产率指数及其分解均具有显著的差异,这表明本文提出的包含了环境投入,福利投入及环境不良产出之后全生产率具有实践意义。
     (2).从整体Malmquist-Luenberger生产率指数来看,1997-2011年间,我国生产率取得的长足增长主要是由技术进步引起的,效率变化的作用不是很大;σ收敛性分析表明,我国各地区的生产率水平越来越接近,差距也逐渐减少;β收敛性分析表明,我国全生产率指数存在收敛性趋势,而且在增加环境不良产出指标后,超过2/3的地区环境保护取得的成效已经开始对经济绩效产生了正向促进作用,尤其在偏远地区,这也可以说明合理的节能减排政策对经济发展产生了促进作用;福利导向的生产率的β收敛性分析表明我国各地区福利水平的发展很不平衡,只有北部沿海和西南地区具有显著的收敛性,这表明我国整体的福利水平还有待提高;
     (3).相对而言,经济发展较快地区的环境污染排放也比较严重,居民没有充分享受到经济增长的好处。对重庆的分析表明,自其单列为直辖市之后,经济虽然取得了较快的增长,但是就全生产率指数的变化来看,这一地区在取得经济发展的同时严重破坏了生态环境和福利水平;此外,沿海地区的发展也呈现出了这一特点,因此这些经济快速发展的地区急需根据全生产率的变化进行结构升级,转变发展模式,保护生态环境,提高社会福利。
     4.最后,由于我国企业层面环境/福利导向的生产率指标难以获取,因此,本文运用Meta分析对研究企业环境和经济绩效之间关系的文章进行了Probit分析,试图找出影响二者之间关系方向的因素,为后续的研究及政策和统计指标的设定提供依据。Probit回归结果表明,环境绩效对经济绩效的作用具有滞后性,并且观测年数越长,效用越明显;政策的完整性,以及实施的早晚也会影响环境绩效对经济绩效的作用;最后,由于不同的经济指标反映了不同阶段的收益,因此环境绩效对会计类或者市场类经济绩效指标有不同的影响作用。
     综上,环境/福利绩效对经济的增长理应具有积极的促进作用,本文提出的环境/福利导向的生产率及其测量更加符合中国的社会实践,可以对国家、地区乃至企业的真实发展状况提供可靠的测量方法,具有重要的现实指导意义。
For a long time, negative impact on ecological environment and public welfare from rapid economic growth is rarely considered by the production behavior of regions and enterprises. This development pattern is based on more and more natural resources and human capital, ignoring the environmental pollution emission. As a result, this pattern has already overdrawn environmental resource, and human capital. Under this pattern, China has experienced considerable economic growth, and since2010China has overtaken Japan to become the world's second largest economy from the view of economic scale. However, hundreds of millions of people does not fully enjoy the benefits of economic growth. Since1990's, as demographic dividend gradually fade, resource shortages, environmental pollution and social welfare problems, such as pension, medical care and education, etc. are becoming more and more prominent. Energy, resources and environment are important restricting factors of sustainable development in our country.
     The balanced development of economic growth, ecological environment, and social welfare has already become an important subject to contemporary societies. The dilemma faced by China's development is to maintain a certain growth rate, meanwhile to avoid ecological damage and resource depletion. Growth is not an end by itself, but a means to create better living conditions. Single indicator of economic growth is now inexplicable as the characterization and measurement of the real situation of economic and social development, under this pursuing economic quantity growth pattern, economic and social development may be lead into a vicious circle of low-efficiency. Productivity can reflects the efficiency and effectiveness of economic activities, and it is an important variable in the management of economic activities. In addition, productivity has always been the critical factor of economic growth and social welfare, not only because productivity takes input and output factors into consideration, but because there have close connections between productivity change and economic growth. However, traditional productivity theory has taken economic growth as the core content, not considering environmental disruption and social welfare, which makes it cannot accurately reflect the real situation of social economic development. Aiming at the dilemma mentioned above, it is necessary to take some time to reconsider productivity, to rethink the development mode from the view of productivity, and to provide a better path to realize the economic growth mode transformation successfully. Accordingly, starting with the production process, this paper reveals the potential factors of productivity, and expands the concept of productivity, which makes it correspond to actual needs. In the following empirical analysis, this paper applies the expand concept of productivity to the analysis of regional level; in the study of micro enterprise level, this paper gives a comprehensive overview about the relationship between enterprise environmental performance and economic performance. The main results and innovations of this paper is as follows:
     1. Productivity is determined by the effective utilization of all the elements of productive force during the production process. The production process is a dynamic process between human, nature and society. Generally speaking, the production process contains the production technical process and socioeconomic process, and the production process is closely related to social and economic institutional factors. From the view of economy of "to achieve greater results at low cost" and the initiative of productivity essentials, there should be a management process between these two process. This management process can help to realize the coexistence of human, society and nature. Based on this decomposition of the production process, traditional concept of productivity is expanded. The expanded concept of productivity is more in line with the practice of social development, because it contains not only effectiveness and efficiency in economic aspect, but also social welfare and ecological environment.
     2. As a normative concept, sustainable development is a process of dynamic optimization, which includes four dimensions:economy, environment, society and institution. Actually, the scale and quality of economic growth influence the ecosphere dramatically, and are reducing its ability to sustain economic development. Based on social throughput, this paper believes that sustainable development is defined as the entropy material flow returned to nature through economic entity cannot drop, and its target is to balance the relationship between human and natural ecology. Meanwhile, ecosystem is a non-growth parent system with limited carrying capacity, which includes three sub-system, i.e. social welfare, economy and environment. Based on the exiting research, from the viewpoint of realizing the sustainable development of human and ecology, this paper discusses and analyzes detailedly the input-output factors of environment and social welfare in the process of production, and provides detailed input-output index system.
     3. More and more researchers try to include environmental undesirable output into the measurement of productivity, and develop a method to calculate Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index by using non parametric method of data development analysis. Hence, this paper explains directional distance function and Malmquist-Luenberger theoretically, and gives the relations between Malmquist-Luenberger index and Malmquist index. This methodology lays the theoretical foundations for calculating regional productivity. Furthermore, there exists a remarkable lag between different regions for the step by step implementation of reform and open-up policy. Hence, by employing the above methodology and index system, this paper studies the changes of productivity and its decomposition of China's30regions, and8social and economic regions. The results of empirical analysis are as follows:
     (1). The results of Wilcoxon rank sum test and nuclear density map shows that there are differences between traditional Malmquist productivity, total productivity (Malmquist-Luenberger), and environment/welfare-oriented productivity. This means that the total productivity provided in this paper, which includes environmental input, welfare input and environmental undesirable output, has important significance in theory and practice.
     (2). Viewed from Malmquist-Luenberger index, the changes of China's productivity from1997-2011mainly comes from technical progress, but not efficiency change. The results of σ convergence analysis show the level of productivity in different regions is more and more close, and the disparity gradually diminished; And there is convergence tendency in total productivity judged from the results of β convergence analysis. After including environmental undesirable outputs, positively affects to economic performance of environmental protection happen in more than2/3regions, especially in remote areas. These observations provide very compelling evidence that reasonable energy-saving emission reduction policies and economic development affect each other interactively. The β convergence analysis of welfare-oriented indicates that the region's welfare in China is quite unbalanced, there is significant convergence tendency only in nothern coastal and south-west areas. This means the overall level of Chinese welfare still remains at rising.
     (3). In contrast, environmental pollution emissions are more severe in rapid economic development areas, and many people are missing out on the rewards of economic growth. The analysis on Chongqing suggests that great progresses have been achieved since it becomes a municipality directly under the Central Government, but ecological environment and social welfare have also been serious influenced viewed from the changes of total productivity. In addition, this phenomenon also happened in the coastal areas. Therefore, these areas badly need to upgrade economic structure, to transfer development pattern, to protect ecological environment and to promote social welfare according to the changes of total productivity.
     4. In the end, by lack of productivity index in enterprise level, by employing Meta analysis to collect literature, this paper mainly discusses influential factors that affect the relationship between enterprise environmental performance and economic performance by using ordered probit analysis. The results show that there is a time lag in the effect of environmental performance on economic performance, and as the observation year getting longer, the effect is more obvious. Moreover, the integrity of policy and its implication will influence this effect. Finally, because different indicators reflect benefits of different stages, there are different influences on accounting and marketing economic performance index.
     Above all, it has been proved that environmental/welfare performance should have a positive role in promoting economic growth from macro and micro perspective. The environment/welfare oriented productivity and its measurement suggested in this thesis are more in line with the practice in China. This expanding concept and its measurement can provide reliable measurement methods to the true state of countries, regions and enterprises. Therefore, it has very important actual and direct sense.
引文
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