中国居民家庭收入流动性研究
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摘要
古语云：“不患寡而患不均”。三十多年的改革开放,中国居民收入大幅增长,但收入分配失衡的问题却日益凸显。收入分配差距越来越大是一个不争的事实。根据财政部2010年的调查,中国的收入分配差距已经达到“高度不平等”状态,10%的富裕家庭占城市居民全部财产的45%,而最低收入10%的家庭其财产总额占全部居民财产的1.4%。党的十八大报告提出：“着力解决收入分配差距较大问题,使发展成果更多、更公平地惠及全体人民。”2013年两会提出：“抓紧制定收入分配改革总方案,真正实现劳有所得、干有所值”。可见,中国收入分配差距是当前亟需解决的社会问题。如何真实地测度中国居民的收入差距,并在此基础上揭示收入不均等逐步扩大的真正原因是解决收入分配问题的关键所在。已有研究大多以基尼系数,泰尔指数等静态指标分析收入分配结果的不平等,并未过多地考虑机会不均等对收入差距的影响。事实上,收入差距往往与人们对社会公平正义的心理感知有关。在机会均等的条件下由于个人努力偏好不同而形成的收入差距是一个社会能够接受和容忍的。为了准确分析机会不均等下的收入差距,大量学者开始了对收入流动性的研究,并取得了相当可观的研究成果。相对于发达国家而言,中国对收入流动性的研究较为薄弱,因此,借鉴国外的研究经验,构建适合中国国情的收入流动性研究框架,准确分析机会不均等对收入差距的影响,真正扭转收入差距的扩大趋势,具有重要的理论和实践意义。
本文以家庭为基本研究单位,以收入流动性的测度、影响因素和对收入差距的作用为研究主题,综合运用文献研究法,统计图、统计表、均值、方差等描述统计法,无序多分类逻辑回归模型、计量经济模型、收入流动矩阵及指标的程序编写,借助Stata、Excel、Eviews、SAS等分析工具,以CHNS为数据源进行实证分析。
论文按照从收入流动性现状到影响因素再到对收入差距的作用这一逻辑思路展开,共分为九章。
论文的前四章是理论基础和数据准备阶段。主要任务是从理论和数据两方面构建研究基础。第一、第二和第三章基于国内外相关文献资料,从收入流动性视角和测度方法两方面进行系统的分析和梳理,在此基础上界定收入流动性的内涵及测度准则,构建本文的研究框架。第四章对CHNS数据进行匹配和加工,根据劳动经济学、福利经济学和社会学的基本理论,借鉴已有的研究成果,尽可能多地筛选变量以备研究所用。
第五章测度收入流动性的水平状况。将五等分的收入转换矩阵和测度指标相结合,重点讨论全国、城乡和区域内部的收入流动性水平在不同时期和不同阶层之间的差异。结果显示,首先,高收入阶层和低收入阶层都缺乏流动,特别是东北地区,两级收入地位的固化倾向最为严重,说明中国贫富差距日益严重,“穷者更穷、富者更富”的马太效应愈加明显。其次,中等收入阶层都富于流动,并且西部地区中等收入阶层的收入流动性最为活跃。再次,西部地区最富有流动,东部地区最缺乏流动。最后,2000-2004年的收入流动性是历年最高的。
第六章测度收入流动性的结构状况。在收入流动性水平状况的基础上,利用向上占比贡献率、向下占比贡献率、向上／向下比率研究全国、城乡和区域收入流动性的结构特征。结果显示,首先,收入流动性的整体结构不理想,并且有恶化倾向。其次,低收入阶层的向上流动和高收入阶层的向下流动有固化倾向,而中等收入阶层向下流动的趋势显著,并且收入地位极为不稳定,波动剧烈。再次,农村各收入阶层的收入流动性结构都优于城市,但波动大于城市。最后,东部地区的收入流动性结构优于中、西、东北地区。
第七章是研究收入流动性的影响因素。筛选收入流动性的影响因素,比较各因素的重要性,为促进收入流动性的良性发展提供依据。首先,城乡收入流动性的影响因素互有异同。同为负向的影响因素有：家庭规模及其变化、人口负担率、年龄平方和上期收入地位,同为正向的影响因素有：人口负担率变化量、年龄、性别、教育程度及其变化量、是否拥有医疗保险和初始收入地位。是否拥有房产、工资收入及其变化量对城市家庭有显著正影响,是否拥有农机设备、非农收入及其变化量对农村家庭有显著负影响。其次,各因素的重要性各有高低。无论城乡,收入结构类因素和教育程度的重要性都绝对领先于其他因素,说明增加城市家庭的工资收入以及农村家庭的非农收入、提高城乡居民的教育程度是收入流动性向上活跃流动的根本途径。对城市家庭而言,是否拥有属于自己产权的房产也归入最重要的因素中。城乡收入流动性影响因素中可归入重要性第二层次的是否拥有医保、收入地位因素,佐证了不断推行的城乡医疗保险制度改革的合理性。值得注意的是,家庭规模、人口负担率、户主年龄、户主性别等人口结构因素和代表农村家庭物质资产的是否拥有农机设备排在重要性最低的第三、四层次。
第八章研究收入流动性对收入差距的作用程度。将全国和城乡收入差距的变动归结为收入流动性和收入增长累进率两个因素。结果显示,全国和城乡居民家庭在长期收入差距趋于缓解的情况下短期收入差距的扩大主要源于收入流动性,并且收入流动性对收入差距的扩散作用要大于收入增长累进率对收入差距的收敛作用。
第九章是归纳总结阶段。归纳总结收入流动性现状、影响因素和对收入差距作用的研究结论,提出相应的对策建议,指明进一步的研究方向。
本文的创新点包括以下三个方面：
第一,引入区域特征分析中国居民家庭的收入流动性。以往收入流动性的研究成果,多是采用城乡比较研究收入流动性,忽略了从区域角度分析和比较收入流动性的状况和趋势。中国幅员辽阔,环境条件差异很大,因此,本文从全国、城乡和区域三个层面对收入流动性进行比较研究,总结出收入流动性的不同特点,不仅丰富和发展了收入流动性的研究方向,也为相关的收入分配政策提供有意义的参考。
第二,计算并分析各收入阶层之间的收入流动性结构指标：向上、向下比率贡献率和向上／向下比率。已有文献较少涉猎各收入阶层间的收入流动性,仅有的研究成果主要以流动比率为研究对象。本文在流动比率的基础上,分析各收入阶层流动比率的贡献率,并且比较其趋势特点,为中国构建橄榄型社会提供参考。
第三,分解全国和城乡居民家庭的基尼系数变动,考察收入流动性对收入差距的影响。以往文献没有分别分解全国和城乡居民家庭的收入流动性,因此对收入流动性与收入差距二者的认识较为笼统,本文系统地分析全国、城市和农村各自的收入差距与收入流动性的关系,从而更为深入地研究收入流动性和收入差距。
不足之处在于：首先,可以作为研究对象的微观面板数据较为有限。收入流动性的研究要求面板数据足够多、足够全,然而,CHNS数据虽有八轮数据,但是八轮都参与的调查对象过少,并且都参与调查的家庭信息也不全面,无法满足数据的连续性和全面性。其次,可得数据的内容严重限制了各区域居民收入流动性影响因素的研究。在各区域中,虽然有一定数量的家庭都参与了CHNS八轮的调查数据,但是这些调查对象对于收入流动性若干影响因素的填写极为不足,不能满足大样本数据的要求,因而,无法对各区域居民家庭收入流动性的影响因素进行实证分析。
As the old saying goes:"Inequality rather than want is the cause of trouble".More than30years of reform and opening-up, Income of Chinese residents increase sharply, but the problem of income distribution has become increasingly prominent. Growing income gap is an indisputable fact. According to the Survey of the Ministry of Finance in2010, the income gap in China has reached the status of "a high degree of inequality",10%wealthy households accounted for45%of all the property of the city residents,10%households in the lowest income property accounted for1.4%of total residents property. The18th National People's Congress report:"Making Great Efforts to solve the income gap so that the fruits of development are more fairer to benefit all people". Both National Peoples Congress and Chinese Peoples Political Consultative Conference in2013point out:"Trying our best to formulate the total income distribution reform program to realize the value of labor income", As a result, China's income gap has become a social problem which needs to solve urgently. How to measure the true income gap and on revealing the real reason why income inequality is gradually expanding are the keys to solve the issue of income distribution.The existing reaseaches use the static index such as the Gini Coefficient and Theil Index to analyze the inequality of income distribution results, It has been mostly not too much to consider opportunities ranging from the impact of the income gap. In fact, the income gap is often associated with psychological perception of social fairness and justice. The income gap formed under conditions of equality of opportunity due to the personal efforts preferences is a socially acceptable and tolerated.In order to accurately analyze the income gap from the ranging opportunities, a large number of scholars began to study on Income Mobility.In1962,Friedman firstly proposed the idea of Income Mobility, he believes that:"There are two societies with the same income distribution,one society has a greater Income Mobility, so that the specific family income level have changed a lot from year to year, but the Income Mobility has great rigidity in another society, each family stay son the same family income level every year. Obviously, the second society is more unfair". Subsequently, the Income Mobility quickly become the focus of the income distribution, many scholars analyzed Income Mobility in the framework of the income gap measure, and had made considerable researches. Relative to developed countries, China's research on Income Mobility is weak. Therefore, learn from the foreign experiences, It has important theoretical and practical significance that we build Income Mobility research framework for China's national conditions, and accurate analysis of the impact of inequality in the distribution of income, provide the references for really reversing the widening income gap-
In this paper, the basic research element is a household, the thesis is the measurement, determinants of Income Mobility, the research methods includes literature research, descriptive statistics (including statistical charts, statistical figures, mean, standard deviation), Logistical regression analysis, econometric models, income transformation matrix as well as its index. The empirical study is conducted with Stata, Excel, Eviews, SAS, using CHNS as data resource.
The whole paper is arranged in the status of Income Mobility, influence influence factors, the role of the Income Mobility in income gap and is divided into nine sections.
The first four secions of the paper are the theoretical basis and data preparation stage. The main task is to build the research base from the theory and data aspects. Secion1,Secion2and Secion3base on relevant literature at home and abroad, analysis both from the perspective of Income Mobility and measure system on this basis and define the meaning and measure of Income Mobility guidelines to construct this article research framework. According to the basic theory of labor economics, welfare economics and sociology, Secion4processes CHNS data and draws on existing research results, as much as possible screening variables in the Institute.
Secion5measures the level of Income Mobility. We use the income transformation matrix and measure indicators to research Income Mobility of the country, urban, rural and regional characteristics, to focus on the level of Income Mobility differences between the different periods and different walks of life in the country, urban, rural areas and the region area. This results show that, First of all, the lowest-income and the highest-income sectors of the economy are short of mobility, especially in the Northeast, the growing gap between the rich and the poor in China is increase, Matthew Effect of "the poor are more poor, the rich get richer "is even more obvious. Secondly, The middle-income sector of the economy is satisfied,especially in the western region.Again,The Income Mobility in Western region is best, in Eastern region is worst.Finally,the income mobility in period2000～2004year is the highest in our study of all years.
Secion6measures the structure of Income Mobility.on the basis of the level of Income Mobility,we use the proportion of upward mobility, downward mobility and the ratio of up and down to research the Income Mobility structure of the country, urban, rural and regional characteristics.This results show that, First of all the structure of Income Mobility is not satisfied.Down-Mobility is more than Up-Mobility, Second, the upward mobility of the lowest-income sector of the economy and the downward mobility of the highest-income sectors of the economy are short of mobility, and the middle-income sectors of the economy is tend to Down-Mobility as well as instable. Again, the mobility structure of rural income groups are better than the city, but more fluctuate than the city. Finally, the overall structure of Income Mobility in Eastern region is superior than in other regions.
Secion7analyzes the influence factors of Income Mobility. We screen the influence factors of mobility, compare the relative importance of these influence factors,and provide the basis to promote the sound development of Income Mobility. First of all, the influence factors of the urban and the rural households have differences and similarities. The same negative influence factors are:household size and its changes, the dependency ratio, age-squared and of income status, The same positive influence factors are:the changes of dependency ratio, age, gender, education level and its changes, whether have medical insurance and initial income status. Whether Own property, wage income and its changes have the significant positive impacts on urban households. Whether own farm equipment, nonfarm income and its changes have the significant negative impacts on rural households.Second, the importance of the influence factors is different.Income structure and the level of education are more important than other influence factors for both urban and rural households. It implies that increasing the wage income of urban households and non-farm income of rural households and improving the level of education of the urban and rural residents rae the basic way to increase upward mobility.For urban households, owning property rights is also classified as the most important factor. Whether have health insurance and income status are the second important influence factors for the urban and rural households, confirming the rationality of urban-rural medical insurance system reform. It's worth noticing that demographic influence factors (household size,dependency ratio, household head age, household head gender) and farm equipment which is on behalf of the rural households material assets are on the third or fourth level of importance.
Secion8analyzes the role of the Income Mobility in income gap.income gap changes are due to two influence factors:Income Mobility and Income Growth Progressivity in the country, urban and rural areas. The results show that the reason why the long-term income gap tends to alleviate and the short-term income gap is increasing is Income Mobility. And the diffusion effect of Income Mobility to the income gap is greater than the revenue effect of Income Growth Progressivity to the income gap.
Secion9summarizes the conclusions and puts forward the suggestions. We summarize the Income Mobility situation, the Income Mobility influence factors and the role of the Income Mobility in income gap, and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to indicate further research directions.
The innovations of this paper include the three aspects:
First, this paper studies Chinese regional residents' Income Mobility. The existing research seldom compare and analyze the Income Mobility from a regional perspective.owing to China's vast territory and different environmental conditions, this paper studies Income Mobility from the three aspects:the country, urban and rural, and regional areas, suming up the different characteristics of Income Mobility not only riches and developments the Income Mobility research direction, but also provides a meaningful reference for the income distribution policy.
Second, this paper analyzes the contribution rate of upward mobility and downward mobility between various income groups. The Income Mobility between the various income groups is seldom happened in the existing research, Few literatures study.mainly bases on the mobility ratio. In this paper, on the basis of the mobility ratio, analyze the contribution rate of the mobility ratio of all income groups, and compare the characteristics and trends, to provide a reference for building the Chinese olive-shaped society.
Third, this paper decomposes the Gini coefficient changes of the country, urban and rural to examine the impact of Income Mobility on the income gap. Existing Literature is not decompose income gap from the three aspects of the country, urban and rural。this paper systematic analysis of the relationship of income gap and Income Mobility in the country, urban and rural income, mobility and income distribution has been more, which gets more distinctive understanding of both Income Mobility and income distribution,.
There are some deficiencies in this paper. Firstly, the available data limits the the accuracy and reliability of research. The Income Mobility requirements enough panel data, However, CHNS have the eight surveys, but the households involved in the eight surveys are so few and unable to meet its continuity and comprehensiveness, this is no doubt that the results affect the accuracy and reliability.of the conclusions of the study.Second, the available data has severely limited Income Mobility influence factors in the regional areas. In each area, although there are a certain number of households involved in the CHNS data, the contents of Income Mobility influence factors are extremely lack, so that can not meet the requirements of large sample data, therefore, we cannot empirically analyze the influencing influence factors of regional household Income Mobility.
本文以家庭为基本研究单位,以收入流动性的测度、影响因素和对收入差距的作用为研究主题,综合运用文献研究法,统计图、统计表、均值、方差等描述统计法,无序多分类逻辑回归模型、计量经济模型、收入流动矩阵及指标的程序编写,借助Stata、Excel、Eviews、SAS等分析工具,以CHNS为数据源进行实证分析。
论文按照从收入流动性现状到影响因素再到对收入差距的作用这一逻辑思路展开,共分为九章。
论文的前四章是理论基础和数据准备阶段。主要任务是从理论和数据两方面构建研究基础。第一、第二和第三章基于国内外相关文献资料,从收入流动性视角和测度方法两方面进行系统的分析和梳理,在此基础上界定收入流动性的内涵及测度准则,构建本文的研究框架。第四章对CHNS数据进行匹配和加工,根据劳动经济学、福利经济学和社会学的基本理论,借鉴已有的研究成果,尽可能多地筛选变量以备研究所用。
第五章测度收入流动性的水平状况。将五等分的收入转换矩阵和测度指标相结合,重点讨论全国、城乡和区域内部的收入流动性水平在不同时期和不同阶层之间的差异。结果显示,首先,高收入阶层和低收入阶层都缺乏流动,特别是东北地区,两级收入地位的固化倾向最为严重,说明中国贫富差距日益严重,“穷者更穷、富者更富”的马太效应愈加明显。其次,中等收入阶层都富于流动,并且西部地区中等收入阶层的收入流动性最为活跃。再次,西部地区最富有流动,东部地区最缺乏流动。最后,2000-2004年的收入流动性是历年最高的。
第六章测度收入流动性的结构状况。在收入流动性水平状况的基础上,利用向上占比贡献率、向下占比贡献率、向上／向下比率研究全国、城乡和区域收入流动性的结构特征。结果显示,首先,收入流动性的整体结构不理想,并且有恶化倾向。其次,低收入阶层的向上流动和高收入阶层的向下流动有固化倾向,而中等收入阶层向下流动的趋势显著,并且收入地位极为不稳定,波动剧烈。再次,农村各收入阶层的收入流动性结构都优于城市,但波动大于城市。最后,东部地区的收入流动性结构优于中、西、东北地区。
第七章是研究收入流动性的影响因素。筛选收入流动性的影响因素,比较各因素的重要性,为促进收入流动性的良性发展提供依据。首先,城乡收入流动性的影响因素互有异同。同为负向的影响因素有：家庭规模及其变化、人口负担率、年龄平方和上期收入地位,同为正向的影响因素有：人口负担率变化量、年龄、性别、教育程度及其变化量、是否拥有医疗保险和初始收入地位。是否拥有房产、工资收入及其变化量对城市家庭有显著正影响,是否拥有农机设备、非农收入及其变化量对农村家庭有显著负影响。其次,各因素的重要性各有高低。无论城乡,收入结构类因素和教育程度的重要性都绝对领先于其他因素,说明增加城市家庭的工资收入以及农村家庭的非农收入、提高城乡居民的教育程度是收入流动性向上活跃流动的根本途径。对城市家庭而言,是否拥有属于自己产权的房产也归入最重要的因素中。城乡收入流动性影响因素中可归入重要性第二层次的是否拥有医保、收入地位因素,佐证了不断推行的城乡医疗保险制度改革的合理性。值得注意的是,家庭规模、人口负担率、户主年龄、户主性别等人口结构因素和代表农村家庭物质资产的是否拥有农机设备排在重要性最低的第三、四层次。
第八章研究收入流动性对收入差距的作用程度。将全国和城乡收入差距的变动归结为收入流动性和收入增长累进率两个因素。结果显示,全国和城乡居民家庭在长期收入差距趋于缓解的情况下短期收入差距的扩大主要源于收入流动性,并且收入流动性对收入差距的扩散作用要大于收入增长累进率对收入差距的收敛作用。
第九章是归纳总结阶段。归纳总结收入流动性现状、影响因素和对收入差距作用的研究结论,提出相应的对策建议,指明进一步的研究方向。
本文的创新点包括以下三个方面：
第一,引入区域特征分析中国居民家庭的收入流动性。以往收入流动性的研究成果,多是采用城乡比较研究收入流动性,忽略了从区域角度分析和比较收入流动性的状况和趋势。中国幅员辽阔,环境条件差异很大,因此,本文从全国、城乡和区域三个层面对收入流动性进行比较研究,总结出收入流动性的不同特点,不仅丰富和发展了收入流动性的研究方向,也为相关的收入分配政策提供有意义的参考。
第二,计算并分析各收入阶层之间的收入流动性结构指标：向上、向下比率贡献率和向上／向下比率。已有文献较少涉猎各收入阶层间的收入流动性,仅有的研究成果主要以流动比率为研究对象。本文在流动比率的基础上,分析各收入阶层流动比率的贡献率,并且比较其趋势特点,为中国构建橄榄型社会提供参考。
第三,分解全国和城乡居民家庭的基尼系数变动,考察收入流动性对收入差距的影响。以往文献没有分别分解全国和城乡居民家庭的收入流动性,因此对收入流动性与收入差距二者的认识较为笼统,本文系统地分析全国、城市和农村各自的收入差距与收入流动性的关系,从而更为深入地研究收入流动性和收入差距。
不足之处在于：首先,可以作为研究对象的微观面板数据较为有限。收入流动性的研究要求面板数据足够多、足够全,然而,CHNS数据虽有八轮数据,但是八轮都参与的调查对象过少,并且都参与调查的家庭信息也不全面,无法满足数据的连续性和全面性。其次,可得数据的内容严重限制了各区域居民收入流动性影响因素的研究。在各区域中,虽然有一定数量的家庭都参与了CHNS八轮的调查数据,但是这些调查对象对于收入流动性若干影响因素的填写极为不足,不能满足大样本数据的要求,因而,无法对各区域居民家庭收入流动性的影响因素进行实证分析。
As the old saying goes:"Inequality rather than want is the cause of trouble".More than30years of reform and opening-up, Income of Chinese residents increase sharply, but the problem of income distribution has become increasingly prominent. Growing income gap is an indisputable fact. According to the Survey of the Ministry of Finance in2010, the income gap in China has reached the status of "a high degree of inequality",10%wealthy households accounted for45%of all the property of the city residents,10%households in the lowest income property accounted for1.4%of total residents property. The18th National People's Congress report:"Making Great Efforts to solve the income gap so that the fruits of development are more fairer to benefit all people". Both National Peoples Congress and Chinese Peoples Political Consultative Conference in2013point out:"Trying our best to formulate the total income distribution reform program to realize the value of labor income", As a result, China's income gap has become a social problem which needs to solve urgently. How to measure the true income gap and on revealing the real reason why income inequality is gradually expanding are the keys to solve the issue of income distribution.The existing reaseaches use the static index such as the Gini Coefficient and Theil Index to analyze the inequality of income distribution results, It has been mostly not too much to consider opportunities ranging from the impact of the income gap. In fact, the income gap is often associated with psychological perception of social fairness and justice. The income gap formed under conditions of equality of opportunity due to the personal efforts preferences is a socially acceptable and tolerated.In order to accurately analyze the income gap from the ranging opportunities, a large number of scholars began to study on Income Mobility.In1962,Friedman firstly proposed the idea of Income Mobility, he believes that:"There are two societies with the same income distribution,one society has a greater Income Mobility, so that the specific family income level have changed a lot from year to year, but the Income Mobility has great rigidity in another society, each family stay son the same family income level every year. Obviously, the second society is more unfair". Subsequently, the Income Mobility quickly become the focus of the income distribution, many scholars analyzed Income Mobility in the framework of the income gap measure, and had made considerable researches. Relative to developed countries, China's research on Income Mobility is weak. Therefore, learn from the foreign experiences, It has important theoretical and practical significance that we build Income Mobility research framework for China's national conditions, and accurate analysis of the impact of inequality in the distribution of income, provide the references for really reversing the widening income gap-
In this paper, the basic research element is a household, the thesis is the measurement, determinants of Income Mobility, the research methods includes literature research, descriptive statistics (including statistical charts, statistical figures, mean, standard deviation), Logistical regression analysis, econometric models, income transformation matrix as well as its index. The empirical study is conducted with Stata, Excel, Eviews, SAS, using CHNS as data resource.
The whole paper is arranged in the status of Income Mobility, influence influence factors, the role of the Income Mobility in income gap and is divided into nine sections.
The first four secions of the paper are the theoretical basis and data preparation stage. The main task is to build the research base from the theory and data aspects. Secion1,Secion2and Secion3base on relevant literature at home and abroad, analysis both from the perspective of Income Mobility and measure system on this basis and define the meaning and measure of Income Mobility guidelines to construct this article research framework. According to the basic theory of labor economics, welfare economics and sociology, Secion4processes CHNS data and draws on existing research results, as much as possible screening variables in the Institute.
Secion5measures the level of Income Mobility. We use the income transformation matrix and measure indicators to research Income Mobility of the country, urban, rural and regional characteristics, to focus on the level of Income Mobility differences between the different periods and different walks of life in the country, urban, rural areas and the region area. This results show that, First of all, the lowest-income and the highest-income sectors of the economy are short of mobility, especially in the Northeast, the growing gap between the rich and the poor in China is increase, Matthew Effect of "the poor are more poor, the rich get richer "is even more obvious. Secondly, The middle-income sector of the economy is satisfied,especially in the western region.Again,The Income Mobility in Western region is best, in Eastern region is worst.Finally,the income mobility in period2000～2004year is the highest in our study of all years.
Secion6measures the structure of Income Mobility.on the basis of the level of Income Mobility,we use the proportion of upward mobility, downward mobility and the ratio of up and down to research the Income Mobility structure of the country, urban, rural and regional characteristics.This results show that, First of all the structure of Income Mobility is not satisfied.Down-Mobility is more than Up-Mobility, Second, the upward mobility of the lowest-income sector of the economy and the downward mobility of the highest-income sectors of the economy are short of mobility, and the middle-income sectors of the economy is tend to Down-Mobility as well as instable. Again, the mobility structure of rural income groups are better than the city, but more fluctuate than the city. Finally, the overall structure of Income Mobility in Eastern region is superior than in other regions.
Secion7analyzes the influence factors of Income Mobility. We screen the influence factors of mobility, compare the relative importance of these influence factors,and provide the basis to promote the sound development of Income Mobility. First of all, the influence factors of the urban and the rural households have differences and similarities. The same negative influence factors are:household size and its changes, the dependency ratio, age-squared and of income status, The same positive influence factors are:the changes of dependency ratio, age, gender, education level and its changes, whether have medical insurance and initial income status. Whether Own property, wage income and its changes have the significant positive impacts on urban households. Whether own farm equipment, nonfarm income and its changes have the significant negative impacts on rural households.Second, the importance of the influence factors is different.Income structure and the level of education are more important than other influence factors for both urban and rural households. It implies that increasing the wage income of urban households and non-farm income of rural households and improving the level of education of the urban and rural residents rae the basic way to increase upward mobility.For urban households, owning property rights is also classified as the most important factor. Whether have health insurance and income status are the second important influence factors for the urban and rural households, confirming the rationality of urban-rural medical insurance system reform. It's worth noticing that demographic influence factors (household size,dependency ratio, household head age, household head gender) and farm equipment which is on behalf of the rural households material assets are on the third or fourth level of importance.
Secion8analyzes the role of the Income Mobility in income gap.income gap changes are due to two influence factors:Income Mobility and Income Growth Progressivity in the country, urban and rural areas. The results show that the reason why the long-term income gap tends to alleviate and the short-term income gap is increasing is Income Mobility. And the diffusion effect of Income Mobility to the income gap is greater than the revenue effect of Income Growth Progressivity to the income gap.
Secion9summarizes the conclusions and puts forward the suggestions. We summarize the Income Mobility situation, the Income Mobility influence factors and the role of the Income Mobility in income gap, and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to indicate further research directions.
The innovations of this paper include the three aspects:
First, this paper studies Chinese regional residents' Income Mobility. The existing research seldom compare and analyze the Income Mobility from a regional perspective.owing to China's vast territory and different environmental conditions, this paper studies Income Mobility from the three aspects:the country, urban and rural, and regional areas, suming up the different characteristics of Income Mobility not only riches and developments the Income Mobility research direction, but also provides a meaningful reference for the income distribution policy.
Second, this paper analyzes the contribution rate of upward mobility and downward mobility between various income groups. The Income Mobility between the various income groups is seldom happened in the existing research, Few literatures study.mainly bases on the mobility ratio. In this paper, on the basis of the mobility ratio, analyze the contribution rate of the mobility ratio of all income groups, and compare the characteristics and trends, to provide a reference for building the Chinese olive-shaped society.
Third, this paper decomposes the Gini coefficient changes of the country, urban and rural to examine the impact of Income Mobility on the income gap. Existing Literature is not decompose income gap from the three aspects of the country, urban and rural。this paper systematic analysis of the relationship of income gap and Income Mobility in the country, urban and rural income, mobility and income distribution has been more, which gets more distinctive understanding of both Income Mobility and income distribution,.
There are some deficiencies in this paper. Firstly, the available data limits the the accuracy and reliability of research. The Income Mobility requirements enough panel data, However, CHNS have the eight surveys, but the households involved in the eight surveys are so few and unable to meet its continuity and comprehensiveness, this is no doubt that the results affect the accuracy and reliability.of the conclusions of the study.Second, the available data has severely limited Income Mobility influence factors in the regional areas. In each area, although there are a certain number of households involved in the CHNS data, the contents of Income Mobility influence factors are extremely lack, so that can not meet the requirements of large sample data, therefore, we cannot empirically analyze the influencing influence factors of regional household Income Mobility.
引文
① Fields,G.,Ok,E.A.,(1996). "The meaning and measurement of income mobility". Journal of Economic Theory 71,349-377.
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