中国区域聚集经济与增长绩效研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,中国经济正处在持续快速增长时期,然而率先发展的东部地区与中西部地区的差距也在持续拉大并呈现加速分化。在此背景下,如何实现区域协调与可持续发展的问题引发各界关注。要素区际流动形成的聚集经济反映了地区经济在总量和结构上的演变；新经济增长理论中,经济效率作为“无形之手”,主导和驱动着地区间要素配置,也是评判地区的经济聚集与经济增长是否匹配的核心。本文综合聚集经济和地区经济效率两个维度的分析,为研究区域经济发展提供了新的视角,并引发我们对以下问题的思考：①改革开放以来中国区域聚集经济具有哪些特征和演变趋势?现实中我国东部地区与中西部地区的要素配置效率情况究竟如何?②普遍意义上来说,经济增长面临着投入要素的规模报酬递减和资源有限的内外双重约束。从现有的经济发展趋势来看,未来中国的经济发展能否摆脱“经济增长单纯依赖于要素数量积累会因回报递减而陷入停滞”的预言?③协调地区效率与公平是制订区域公共政策的关键,也是面临的两难。这也促使我们在经济效率“无形之手”之外,增加关于政府“有形之手”引导地区经济发展的思考。如何通过区域公共政策降低目前地区间不平衡程度,推动区域协调发展?
对上述问题的思考构成了本文的研究动机。本文结合逻辑演绎与经验归纳法,从聚集经济与增长绩效的内在联系出发,对我国地区经济发展提供新视角下的剖析。全文共分为六章,各章的主要内容如下：
第一章：绪论。主要对本文的选题背景和研究意义,围绕的核心问题,研究思路与结构安排,以及创新点与不足之处进行简要介绍。
第二章：理论与文献评述,从本文主题出发,对集聚与地区经济发展理论中的代表性研究进行了梳理,分别围绕.“经济活动的空间聚集”以及“地区动态增长路径与结构变迁”,对外部性与集聚以及集聚与地方经济的一些理论和实证研究进行了评述,指出现有研究的不足和有待改进之处。并归纳了“新经济地理学”视角下集聚与地区发展的主要研究成果。
第三章：对集聚、生产效率与可持续发展进行理论层面的内在机理探究。首先,构建理论模型描述在规模经济与交易成本的权衡中,影响企业家选址的关键性因素,作为本文分析地区生产布局的微观基础,并为集聚这一空间经济活动提供内在机理解释。其次,考察多地区结构性变迁的微观基础和作用机理,从理论层面探究了空间聚集程度的变动与地区生产效率(TFP)之间的关联性。最后,构建资源约束下的动态最优增长路径模型,考察资源约束下的动态最优增长路径是否仍然可以实现可持续性发展。
第四章：中国聚集经济的形成与动态演进。本章通过对转型期间中国区域聚集经济典型事实的描述和对聚集经济形成原因的分析,为第三章中的理论推理提供了来自转型经济体样本的实证依据,同时也为现有文献中的经典理论假说提供了相关证据。针对我国现实经济聚集形态的重要特征——地区专业化与多样性的并存共生,本章在区域综合视角下,样本选取改革开放三十年的长周期,对我国不同聚集经济类态的协同效应进行研究,这在目前国内外文献中还很鲜见。研究结果表明,新世纪以来地区发展如果延续单一的专业化聚集模式将是难以持续的；而专业化聚集与多样性聚集的协同效应对地区经济发展起到了促进作用,未来的招商引资中应注重发挥二者的协同性,将规模经济与范围经济相统一,这也是实现地区持续发展的内在要求。
第五章：中国区域经济的增长绩效与可持续发展。经济效率作为指挥要素配置的“无形之手”,本章的研究结果为我国地区不平衡发展的内在原因给出了解释：转型期间,特别是上世纪九十年代以来,地区间技术进步与综合效率比值的双向下降,导致了中西部“塌陷区”与东部“增长极”地区分化的加剧。在对地区生产效率和要素投入的贡献进行核算后发现,相对于东部地区的“内涵型”经济增长,中西部地区更具有资本驱动式的“外延型”经济增长特征。能源消耗对地区经济增长的贡献份额很高,体现出地区经济依赖于高能耗产业的带动,表明了中国未来仍需进一步转变高能耗的增长模式,实现集约型发展。在对政府“有形之手”如何引导地区经济发展的实证分析结果显示,中、西部地区要素聚集对于本地区经济规模扩张具有更强的引致力,中部地区经济规模与聚集度之间具有双向循环引致关系,这一结论为制定我国的地区最优发展次序提供了政策启示。
第六章：对全文理论分析和实证研究的主要结论和政策性启示进行归纳总结。
总体而言,与现有文献相比,本文对中国区域聚集经济与增长绩效的研究具有以下几方面的创新：首先,本文以聚集经济和地区经济效率两个维度以及内在关联作为总体分析框架,对中国如何实现区际协调和可持续发展进行了新的探索与解答；其次,在理论研究方面,本文运用新经济增长和新经济地理学相关理论,构建涵盖空间分布与演变、聚集与地区效率的关联性、以及资源约束下的可持续发展三个层面的更为系统的理论分析框架,进行内在机理性分析,是对现有研究的进一步深化与拓展；最后,在实证研究方面,本文尝试结合逻辑演绎与经验归纳法,从聚集经济与增长绩效的内在联系出发,探究地区聚集经济的形成与演进,以及评判目前我国聚集经济与区域经济增长是否匹配,进一步深化了我们对于地区经济发展规律的认识与判断。实证结果提出了一些新观点主要包括：发挥不同经济聚集类态的协同效应促进地区经济发展；完善“绿色”增长绩效评估体系；进一步释放要素配置的空间红利,强化市场对于微观主体的引导；以及政府“无形之手”在不同地区的政策效应空间,最优发展次序选择等等,对我国区域经济发展中面临的现实问题进行了新的探索,并且对我国区域发展政策的制定提供客观有益的参考。
With over three decades of reform and opening-up, the rapid and sustainable economic growth of China has stimulated this emerging nation to be one of the world's bright spots. On the other hand, inequality gap between leading and lagging regions of China has increased by an ever-widening margin each year since then. In this context, regional coordination and sustainable development issues attract much more social attention. Agglomeration economy, formed by inter-regional factor flows, reflects regional economic evolution of both aggregate and structure. Economic performance, noted as "invisible hand" for driving inter-regional factor allocation in new growth theory, which is also the principal standard to judge whether agglomeration economy matched well with local development. This paper combining agglomeration economy and economic performance could broaden traditional perspective, which lead me to think over the following questions:①What is the dynamic nature of agglomeration economy in China since reform and opening-up? What exactly is the economic performance of China? Are there differences between eastern region(leading region) and central/western region(lagging region)?②It is well known that diminishing marginal returns and resource limitation restrain economic growth. Based on the current evolutionary trend, whether economic development of China in future can break up the prophecy that "Diminishing marginal returns from quantity expansion will plunge economic growth into stagnation"?③Harmonizing efficiency and equity is the key issue on drawing up regional development policy, which lead me to take effect of government's "visible hand" into account, and think about how to reduce inequality degree for regional coordination?
My main motivation for this dissertation is a desire to investigate the above questions. In this paper, I start from the inherent linkage between agglomeration economy and growth performance, and then analyze regional development from a broader perspective, which is based on both logic deduction method and empirical induction method. This dissertation is divided into six parts. The main contents and findings are as follows:
Chapter one is introduction, mainly explains the background, motives, study approaches, structure and contributions.
Chapter two surveys three ranges of literatures:the theoretical and empirical studies about spatial agglomeration; about regional trajectories of economic development and structural evolution; to make tracks for theoretical frontier, sums up literatures of "New Economic Geography".
Chapter three develops theoretical models to explore agglomeration, economic efficiency and sustainable development. Based on derivations to proclaim some mechanisms and laws of what influence entrepreneurs' selection? How is the evolving linkage between spatial agglomeration and total factor productivity(TFP)? Whether sustainable development is an achievable aim under resource restriction?
Chapter four describes the spatial agglomeration pattern of economic activities in China and then investigates the causes of agglomeration, which provide evidences for the theoretical expectations of Chapter three and also for the classical theories such as Marshall principle. From comprehensive angle of view, this paper checks inner-industrial, inter-industrial and joint effects based on a typical transitional economy sample spanning three decades, which has been a complete void on the current synthetically empirical study. The main finding shows that simple inner-industrial agglomeration pattern is unsustainable since new century, on the other hand, joint effects between specialization and diversity would promote local development.
Chapter five discusses growth performances and development patterns between leading and lagging regions of China. The main finding shows that both technological progress and comprehensive efficiency have declined when compared to eastern area since1990s, which induce formation and disparity of "growth pole" in eastern area and "subsidence area" in middle/western area. After constructing the input and output panel data of provinces in China from1980to2008, it estimates both quality improvement and quantity expansion of economic growth in different areas. The finding shows that growth effect plays as the first driving force in eastern area, After further investigating, it also finds that input redundance in "subsidence area" has cause dynamic unefficiency, meanwhile, energy consumption has contributed much less to economic growth in eastern area in21th century, which demonstrates the growth pattern change. After investigating "visible hand effect" of government, it also finds that scale economy and concentration are both cause and effect in middle area, and has certain implications for how to make preferential policies for regional coordinated development.
Chapter six concludes this dissertation and points out some proposals.
To sum up, compared with literatures available, the innovations of this dissertation are summarized as follows:
Firstly, this paper quests for how to achieve regional coordination and sustainable development of China, based on a new analysis framework which combines both agglomeration economy and growth performance perspectives. Secondly, this paper constructs a more systemic analysis framework in the theoretical content, including spatial evolution, inherent linkage between regional agglomeration and efficiency, and sustainable development under resource constriction. Thirdly, this paper investigates the inherent linkage between agglomeration economy and growth performance based on both logic deduction method and empirical induction method, which could deepen the understanding of inherent law of regional development. Thirdly, the main findings of this paper would enrich regional economic theory, which also provide objective evidences for the regional policy-making.
对上述问题的思考构成了本文的研究动机。本文结合逻辑演绎与经验归纳法,从聚集经济与增长绩效的内在联系出发,对我国地区经济发展提供新视角下的剖析。全文共分为六章,各章的主要内容如下：
第一章：绪论。主要对本文的选题背景和研究意义,围绕的核心问题,研究思路与结构安排,以及创新点与不足之处进行简要介绍。
第二章：理论与文献评述,从本文主题出发,对集聚与地区经济发展理论中的代表性研究进行了梳理,分别围绕.“经济活动的空间聚集”以及“地区动态增长路径与结构变迁”,对外部性与集聚以及集聚与地方经济的一些理论和实证研究进行了评述,指出现有研究的不足和有待改进之处。并归纳了“新经济地理学”视角下集聚与地区发展的主要研究成果。
第三章：对集聚、生产效率与可持续发展进行理论层面的内在机理探究。首先,构建理论模型描述在规模经济与交易成本的权衡中,影响企业家选址的关键性因素,作为本文分析地区生产布局的微观基础,并为集聚这一空间经济活动提供内在机理解释。其次,考察多地区结构性变迁的微观基础和作用机理,从理论层面探究了空间聚集程度的变动与地区生产效率(TFP)之间的关联性。最后,构建资源约束下的动态最优增长路径模型,考察资源约束下的动态最优增长路径是否仍然可以实现可持续性发展。
第四章：中国聚集经济的形成与动态演进。本章通过对转型期间中国区域聚集经济典型事实的描述和对聚集经济形成原因的分析,为第三章中的理论推理提供了来自转型经济体样本的实证依据,同时也为现有文献中的经典理论假说提供了相关证据。针对我国现实经济聚集形态的重要特征——地区专业化与多样性的并存共生,本章在区域综合视角下,样本选取改革开放三十年的长周期,对我国不同聚集经济类态的协同效应进行研究,这在目前国内外文献中还很鲜见。研究结果表明,新世纪以来地区发展如果延续单一的专业化聚集模式将是难以持续的；而专业化聚集与多样性聚集的协同效应对地区经济发展起到了促进作用,未来的招商引资中应注重发挥二者的协同性,将规模经济与范围经济相统一,这也是实现地区持续发展的内在要求。
第五章：中国区域经济的增长绩效与可持续发展。经济效率作为指挥要素配置的“无形之手”,本章的研究结果为我国地区不平衡发展的内在原因给出了解释：转型期间,特别是上世纪九十年代以来,地区间技术进步与综合效率比值的双向下降,导致了中西部“塌陷区”与东部“增长极”地区分化的加剧。在对地区生产效率和要素投入的贡献进行核算后发现,相对于东部地区的“内涵型”经济增长,中西部地区更具有资本驱动式的“外延型”经济增长特征。能源消耗对地区经济增长的贡献份额很高,体现出地区经济依赖于高能耗产业的带动,表明了中国未来仍需进一步转变高能耗的增长模式,实现集约型发展。在对政府“有形之手”如何引导地区经济发展的实证分析结果显示,中、西部地区要素聚集对于本地区经济规模扩张具有更强的引致力,中部地区经济规模与聚集度之间具有双向循环引致关系,这一结论为制定我国的地区最优发展次序提供了政策启示。
第六章：对全文理论分析和实证研究的主要结论和政策性启示进行归纳总结。
总体而言,与现有文献相比,本文对中国区域聚集经济与增长绩效的研究具有以下几方面的创新：首先,本文以聚集经济和地区经济效率两个维度以及内在关联作为总体分析框架,对中国如何实现区际协调和可持续发展进行了新的探索与解答；其次,在理论研究方面,本文运用新经济增长和新经济地理学相关理论,构建涵盖空间分布与演变、聚集与地区效率的关联性、以及资源约束下的可持续发展三个层面的更为系统的理论分析框架,进行内在机理性分析,是对现有研究的进一步深化与拓展；最后,在实证研究方面,本文尝试结合逻辑演绎与经验归纳法,从聚集经济与增长绩效的内在联系出发,探究地区聚集经济的形成与演进,以及评判目前我国聚集经济与区域经济增长是否匹配,进一步深化了我们对于地区经济发展规律的认识与判断。实证结果提出了一些新观点主要包括：发挥不同经济聚集类态的协同效应促进地区经济发展；完善“绿色”增长绩效评估体系；进一步释放要素配置的空间红利,强化市场对于微观主体的引导；以及政府“无形之手”在不同地区的政策效应空间,最优发展次序选择等等,对我国区域经济发展中面临的现实问题进行了新的探索,并且对我国区域发展政策的制定提供客观有益的参考。
With over three decades of reform and opening-up, the rapid and sustainable economic growth of China has stimulated this emerging nation to be one of the world's bright spots. On the other hand, inequality gap between leading and lagging regions of China has increased by an ever-widening margin each year since then. In this context, regional coordination and sustainable development issues attract much more social attention. Agglomeration economy, formed by inter-regional factor flows, reflects regional economic evolution of both aggregate and structure. Economic performance, noted as "invisible hand" for driving inter-regional factor allocation in new growth theory, which is also the principal standard to judge whether agglomeration economy matched well with local development. This paper combining agglomeration economy and economic performance could broaden traditional perspective, which lead me to think over the following questions:①What is the dynamic nature of agglomeration economy in China since reform and opening-up? What exactly is the economic performance of China? Are there differences between eastern region(leading region) and central/western region(lagging region)?②It is well known that diminishing marginal returns and resource limitation restrain economic growth. Based on the current evolutionary trend, whether economic development of China in future can break up the prophecy that "Diminishing marginal returns from quantity expansion will plunge economic growth into stagnation"?③Harmonizing efficiency and equity is the key issue on drawing up regional development policy, which lead me to take effect of government's "visible hand" into account, and think about how to reduce inequality degree for regional coordination?
My main motivation for this dissertation is a desire to investigate the above questions. In this paper, I start from the inherent linkage between agglomeration economy and growth performance, and then analyze regional development from a broader perspective, which is based on both logic deduction method and empirical induction method. This dissertation is divided into six parts. The main contents and findings are as follows:
Chapter one is introduction, mainly explains the background, motives, study approaches, structure and contributions.
Chapter two surveys three ranges of literatures:the theoretical and empirical studies about spatial agglomeration; about regional trajectories of economic development and structural evolution; to make tracks for theoretical frontier, sums up literatures of "New Economic Geography".
Chapter three develops theoretical models to explore agglomeration, economic efficiency and sustainable development. Based on derivations to proclaim some mechanisms and laws of what influence entrepreneurs' selection? How is the evolving linkage between spatial agglomeration and total factor productivity(TFP)? Whether sustainable development is an achievable aim under resource restriction?
Chapter four describes the spatial agglomeration pattern of economic activities in China and then investigates the causes of agglomeration, which provide evidences for the theoretical expectations of Chapter three and also for the classical theories such as Marshall principle. From comprehensive angle of view, this paper checks inner-industrial, inter-industrial and joint effects based on a typical transitional economy sample spanning three decades, which has been a complete void on the current synthetically empirical study. The main finding shows that simple inner-industrial agglomeration pattern is unsustainable since new century, on the other hand, joint effects between specialization and diversity would promote local development.
Chapter five discusses growth performances and development patterns between leading and lagging regions of China. The main finding shows that both technological progress and comprehensive efficiency have declined when compared to eastern area since1990s, which induce formation and disparity of "growth pole" in eastern area and "subsidence area" in middle/western area. After constructing the input and output panel data of provinces in China from1980to2008, it estimates both quality improvement and quantity expansion of economic growth in different areas. The finding shows that growth effect plays as the first driving force in eastern area, After further investigating, it also finds that input redundance in "subsidence area" has cause dynamic unefficiency, meanwhile, energy consumption has contributed much less to economic growth in eastern area in21th century, which demonstrates the growth pattern change. After investigating "visible hand effect" of government, it also finds that scale economy and concentration are both cause and effect in middle area, and has certain implications for how to make preferential policies for regional coordinated development.
Chapter six concludes this dissertation and points out some proposals.
To sum up, compared with literatures available, the innovations of this dissertation are summarized as follows:
Firstly, this paper quests for how to achieve regional coordination and sustainable development of China, based on a new analysis framework which combines both agglomeration economy and growth performance perspectives. Secondly, this paper constructs a more systemic analysis framework in the theoretical content, including spatial evolution, inherent linkage between regional agglomeration and efficiency, and sustainable development under resource constriction. Thirdly, this paper investigates the inherent linkage between agglomeration economy and growth performance based on both logic deduction method and empirical induction method, which could deepen the understanding of inherent law of regional development. Thirdly, the main findings of this paper would enrich regional economic theory, which also provide objective evidences for the regional policy-making.
引文
1 资料来源：根据历年《中国统计年鉴》公布数据计算整理
2 资料来源：根据《中国产业集群发展报告》有关数据计算整理
1 资料来源：根据《中国产业集群发展报告》有关数据计算整理
2 资料来源：根据国家发改委《中国产业区的发展概况与经验总结》有关数据计算整理
3 转引自魏江,顾强,石勇等.中国产业集群发展报告.北京：机械工业出版社,2009
4 转引自沙安文,沈春丽,邹恒甫.中国地区差异的经济分析.北京：人民出版社,2006
5 1986年公布的《“七五”发展规划》,根据地理位置和地区经济发展水平,正式将我国划分为东部、中部和西部三大经济带,作为我国地区划分和区域政策制定的重要界定标准
6 资料来源：根据历年《中国统计年鉴》公布数据计算整理
1 资料来源：根据历年《中国统计年鉴》公布数据计算整理
2 资料来源：根据历年《中国统计年鉴》公布数据计算整理
1 资料来源：根据《中国产业集群发展报告》有关数据计算整理
1 资料来源：根据历年《中国统计年鉴》公布数据计算整理
1 参见藤田昌久、克鲁格曼、维纳布尔斯著,梁琦(译).空间经济学——城市、区域与国际贸易[M].中国人民大学出版社,2004.
1 详细推导过程可参阅藤田昌久,雅克-弗朗科斯·蒂斯,刘峰等(译),集聚经济学—城市、产业区位与区域增长,四川：西南财经大学出版社,2004,PP.76-79.
1 藤田昌久,雅克-弗朗科斯·蒂斯,刘峰等(译),集聚经济学—城市、产业区位与区域增长,四川：西南财经大学出版社,2004,见PP.45-46.
1 参见罗伯特·J·巴罗和夏威尔·萨拉-伊-马丁,《经济增长》,上海：格致出版社,上海人民出版社,2010,PP.35-36,369-375.
1 见魏江,顾强,石勇等.《中国产业集群发展报告》.北京：机械工业出版社,2009
1 资料来源：刘世锦.《中国产业集群发展报告(2007—2008)》.北京：中国发展出版社,2008,PP.97-98.
1 SN和SH曲线斜率的求解过程可参见安虎森等.《新经济地理学原理》,经济科学出版社,2008
1 参见苏东水主编,《产业经济学》,北京：高等教育出版社,2004,PP.300-301.
1 根据《中国第三产业统计年鉴》公布数据计算得出
1 见Young, Alwyn.1995, "The Tyranny of Numbers:Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience". Quarterly Journal of Economics 110:641-680.
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2 资料来源：根据《中国产业集群发展报告》有关数据计算整理
1 资料来源：根据《中国产业集群发展报告》有关数据计算整理
2 资料来源：根据国家发改委《中国产业区的发展概况与经验总结》有关数据计算整理
3 转引自魏江,顾强,石勇等.中国产业集群发展报告.北京：机械工业出版社,2009
4 转引自沙安文,沈春丽,邹恒甫.中国地区差异的经济分析.北京：人民出版社,2006
5 1986年公布的《“七五”发展规划》,根据地理位置和地区经济发展水平,正式将我国划分为东部、中部和西部三大经济带,作为我国地区划分和区域政策制定的重要界定标准
6 资料来源：根据历年《中国统计年鉴》公布数据计算整理
1 资料来源：根据历年《中国统计年鉴》公布数据计算整理
2 资料来源：根据历年《中国统计年鉴》公布数据计算整理
1 资料来源：根据《中国产业集群发展报告》有关数据计算整理
1 资料来源：根据历年《中国统计年鉴》公布数据计算整理
1 参见藤田昌久、克鲁格曼、维纳布尔斯著,梁琦(译).空间经济学——城市、区域与国际贸易[M].中国人民大学出版社,2004.
1 详细推导过程可参阅藤田昌久,雅克-弗朗科斯·蒂斯,刘峰等(译),集聚经济学—城市、产业区位与区域增长,四川：西南财经大学出版社,2004,PP.76-79.
1 藤田昌久,雅克-弗朗科斯·蒂斯,刘峰等(译),集聚经济学—城市、产业区位与区域增长,四川：西南财经大学出版社,2004,见PP.45-46.
1 参见罗伯特·J·巴罗和夏威尔·萨拉-伊-马丁,《经济增长》,上海：格致出版社,上海人民出版社,2010,PP.35-36,369-375.
1 见魏江,顾强,石勇等.《中国产业集群发展报告》.北京：机械工业出版社,2009
1 资料来源：刘世锦.《中国产业集群发展报告(2007—2008)》.北京：中国发展出版社,2008,PP.97-98.
1 SN和SH曲线斜率的求解过程可参见安虎森等.《新经济地理学原理》,经济科学出版社,2008
1 参见苏东水主编,《产业经济学》,北京：高等教育出版社,2004,PP.300-301.
1 根据《中国第三产业统计年鉴》公布数据计算得出
1 见Young, Alwyn.1995, "The Tyranny of Numbers:Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience". Quarterly Journal of Economics 110:641-680.
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