运用市政债券融资规避我国地方融资平台风险研究
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摘要
根据人民银行2011年9月披露的数据,我国3800多家地方融资平台管理总资产8万亿元,地方政府负债则接近5.2万亿元。地方政府融资平台既是我国经济建设不可或缺的力量,但也因其超高负债率、违规担保承诺、项目资本金不足、项目偿债能力低下等问题而蕴含着极大的金融风险。当然,如果骤然停止对地方政府的贷款,也必将导致大量的烂尾工程出现,甚至会提前引爆地方政府的债务风险。因此,如何寻找科学、合理的融资工具,积极拓宽地方政府的融资渠道,缓解地方政府对土地财政的依赖,即以多元化的融资结构去化解地方政府财政风险,已经成为地方政府、实务界和理论界共同关注的焦点。
本文立足于中国特定的国情,采取比较分析与系统分析相结合,定量分析与定性分析相结合的研究方法,试图构建一个具有说服力的理论框架,分析政府融资平台中的风险管理问题,评估政府债券融资的科学性与合理性,进而提出实现地方政府融资平台的良性和可持续发展的政策建议,为政府有关部门提供有价值的信息。
本论文在结构安排上可以划分为七章,除第一章导论部分外,其余各章主要内容概述如下：第二章为文献综述部分。按照时间顺序对国内外相关研究文献进行综述与评析。以传统的公共债务之一般理论研究为起点,分析、归纳了西方经济学家提出的重要的理论观点。基于此,重点研究了发达国家政府制定的某些“游戏规则”和相关政策。对国内学者最近几年在地方政府债务及其融资平台方面的研究活动所取得的各项成果,同样予以了高度重视。
第三章为国际经验研究与借鉴部分。研究、分析了某些典型国家(如美国、日本、韩国)的市政融资活动之成功与不足,总结适合我国国情的值得借鉴的经验。通过比较研究,对我国市政债券融资现状、存在问题,以及发展前景进行了广泛分析。
第四章为市政债券发行与偿债机制研究部分。首先,基于相关理论,建立了一个用于证券设计的理论分析框架；然后,分别从“信息不对称”和“信息对称”两种角度,探讨了地方政府融资工具的最优选择问题；接下来,根据我国实际情况,对我国地方政府债券的发行模式、发行主体、发行种类、发行方式等问题进行了必要的探讨；最后,按照收益风险原则,设计了地方政府偿债保障机制。
第五章为市政债券定价研究部分。首先,对影响债券定价的宏观经济、行业特点、财务风险这三大因素分别进行了较为深入的分析。其次,基于市政债券的期限结构理论,构建了适合的市政债券之定价模型。最后,运用江苏省的数据进行了模拟研究,测算了对于该省而言的合理的债券定价和发债规模。
第六章为市政债券信用风险分析与市场监管研究部分。在对债券估价研究之后,基于KMV模型建立了市政债券信用风险分析体系,并且继续运用江苏省的数据进行实证分析。为了建立一个适合我国国情的,高效的市政债券信用评级体系,不仅注意吸收了美国政府管理部门、社会中介部门等对市政债券评级工作的成功经验,而且认真分析了涉及我国市政债券市场监管体系的各种重大问题。
第七章为对策建议部分。除了再次强调化解地方政府融资平台风险是一项系统工程外,还从地方融资平台的市场化机制出发,就市政债券的发行、定价管理,信用风险管理,市场监管体系建设等几个主要方面,提出了切实可行的政策、措施建议。
According to the data disclosed by the People's Bank of China in September2011, total asset of more than3,800local government fund vehicals (LGFVs) is800million yuan, and the local government debt has reached5.2trillion yuan. Though LGFVs is an indispensable force for China's economic construction, it contains a large financial risk because of the ultra-high-liability ratio, illegal guarantee commitment, the lack of project capital and low solvency of projects. And stop lending to local governments will lead to many unfinished projects, which would trigger local government debt risk. Therefore, to search for scientific and reasonable financing tools, actively to expend financing channels, to change the financing structure of local government which funds rely mainly on selling lands, and to form multiple financing structures to resolve risks, are increasingly becoming the focus of the government, practitioners and theorists.
To build a convincing theoretical framework, the paper aims to take a combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis, empirical research and statistical analysis, and comparative and systematic analysis, based on China's specific conditions, in which I analyz the risk of LGFVs, and assess the scientificity and rationality of government's bond financing, and then I put forward policy recommendations for the development of LGFVs and provide valuable information to the government.
The paper is made up of seven parts. The first part is introductory theory, and the other parts are as follows:
The second part is literature review, which I review and make commnents on the literatures home and abroad in chronological order. First, I took the traditional theory of national public debt as a starting point, and then summarized theories from developed countries to analyze their successful experiences and shortcomings.Based on which, I focus on the "Game Rules" and policy related to the LGFVs. Second, I reviewed the theories and achivements from domestic scholars on LGFVs.
The third part concerns summarizing and learning successful experience from foreign municipal financing experience. I summarized the successful experience of the United States and Japan on municipal financing, and then furthur strudied the experiences from Asian countries-South Korea. Based on the studies, I analyzed the municipal bond financing situation systematically, which provides a broad perspective and a good framework guidelines for further study.
The forth part is about studying the issuance of municipal bonds and debt repayment mechanism theoretically and empirically. First, I established a analytical framewok on securities design theory; then explored the optimal choice of the LGFVs from the perspective of asymmetric information and symmetric information respectively. Second, in accordance with the actual situation in China, I analyzed release mode, the main issue, issue type, distribution methods and other issues of China's local government bonds. Finally, I designed a scientific mechanism of local government debt security in the principle of income risk.
The fifth part pays attentions to municipal bond pricing issue. First of all, I analyzed the three factors, including macroeconomy, industry and risk, which affect pricing bonds. Secondly, I studied the term structure theories of municipal bonds, and then constructed and verified a municipal bond pricing model. Finally, I did the regression analysis by putting the data of Jiangsu province into the model, and calculated the reasonable debt scale.
The sixth part studies the credit risk and market regulations of municipal bond. I built the municipal bond credit risk analysis system based on the KMV model, after studying the bond valuation and carrying out empirical analysis based on the data from Jiangsu Province. At the same time, I took up the successful experiences of the United States's governments and agencies on municipal bond rating, and studied how to construct China's municipal bond market supervision system, to put forward to build our country municipal bond credit rating policy recommendations.
The last part tells the policy suggestions. It is a systematic project to address the risk of LGFVs. Starting from the market mechanism of LGFVs; the paper firstly systematically studies the issuing and pricing the municipal bond and has put forward feasible policy suggestions on improving the credit risk and strengthening the market supervision system.
本文立足于中国特定的国情,采取比较分析与系统分析相结合,定量分析与定性分析相结合的研究方法,试图构建一个具有说服力的理论框架,分析政府融资平台中的风险管理问题,评估政府债券融资的科学性与合理性,进而提出实现地方政府融资平台的良性和可持续发展的政策建议,为政府有关部门提供有价值的信息。
本论文在结构安排上可以划分为七章,除第一章导论部分外,其余各章主要内容概述如下：第二章为文献综述部分。按照时间顺序对国内外相关研究文献进行综述与评析。以传统的公共债务之一般理论研究为起点,分析、归纳了西方经济学家提出的重要的理论观点。基于此,重点研究了发达国家政府制定的某些“游戏规则”和相关政策。对国内学者最近几年在地方政府债务及其融资平台方面的研究活动所取得的各项成果,同样予以了高度重视。
第三章为国际经验研究与借鉴部分。研究、分析了某些典型国家(如美国、日本、韩国)的市政融资活动之成功与不足,总结适合我国国情的值得借鉴的经验。通过比较研究,对我国市政债券融资现状、存在问题,以及发展前景进行了广泛分析。
第四章为市政债券发行与偿债机制研究部分。首先,基于相关理论,建立了一个用于证券设计的理论分析框架；然后,分别从“信息不对称”和“信息对称”两种角度,探讨了地方政府融资工具的最优选择问题；接下来,根据我国实际情况,对我国地方政府债券的发行模式、发行主体、发行种类、发行方式等问题进行了必要的探讨；最后,按照收益风险原则,设计了地方政府偿债保障机制。
第五章为市政债券定价研究部分。首先,对影响债券定价的宏观经济、行业特点、财务风险这三大因素分别进行了较为深入的分析。其次,基于市政债券的期限结构理论,构建了适合的市政债券之定价模型。最后,运用江苏省的数据进行了模拟研究,测算了对于该省而言的合理的债券定价和发债规模。
第六章为市政债券信用风险分析与市场监管研究部分。在对债券估价研究之后,基于KMV模型建立了市政债券信用风险分析体系,并且继续运用江苏省的数据进行实证分析。为了建立一个适合我国国情的,高效的市政债券信用评级体系,不仅注意吸收了美国政府管理部门、社会中介部门等对市政债券评级工作的成功经验,而且认真分析了涉及我国市政债券市场监管体系的各种重大问题。
第七章为对策建议部分。除了再次强调化解地方政府融资平台风险是一项系统工程外,还从地方融资平台的市场化机制出发,就市政债券的发行、定价管理,信用风险管理,市场监管体系建设等几个主要方面,提出了切实可行的政策、措施建议。
According to the data disclosed by the People's Bank of China in September2011, total asset of more than3,800local government fund vehicals (LGFVs) is800million yuan, and the local government debt has reached5.2trillion yuan. Though LGFVs is an indispensable force for China's economic construction, it contains a large financial risk because of the ultra-high-liability ratio, illegal guarantee commitment, the lack of project capital and low solvency of projects. And stop lending to local governments will lead to many unfinished projects, which would trigger local government debt risk. Therefore, to search for scientific and reasonable financing tools, actively to expend financing channels, to change the financing structure of local government which funds rely mainly on selling lands, and to form multiple financing structures to resolve risks, are increasingly becoming the focus of the government, practitioners and theorists.
To build a convincing theoretical framework, the paper aims to take a combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis, empirical research and statistical analysis, and comparative and systematic analysis, based on China's specific conditions, in which I analyz the risk of LGFVs, and assess the scientificity and rationality of government's bond financing, and then I put forward policy recommendations for the development of LGFVs and provide valuable information to the government.
The paper is made up of seven parts. The first part is introductory theory, and the other parts are as follows:
The second part is literature review, which I review and make commnents on the literatures home and abroad in chronological order. First, I took the traditional theory of national public debt as a starting point, and then summarized theories from developed countries to analyze their successful experiences and shortcomings.Based on which, I focus on the "Game Rules" and policy related to the LGFVs. Second, I reviewed the theories and achivements from domestic scholars on LGFVs.
The third part concerns summarizing and learning successful experience from foreign municipal financing experience. I summarized the successful experience of the United States and Japan on municipal financing, and then furthur strudied the experiences from Asian countries-South Korea. Based on the studies, I analyzed the municipal bond financing situation systematically, which provides a broad perspective and a good framework guidelines for further study.
The forth part is about studying the issuance of municipal bonds and debt repayment mechanism theoretically and empirically. First, I established a analytical framewok on securities design theory; then explored the optimal choice of the LGFVs from the perspective of asymmetric information and symmetric information respectively. Second, in accordance with the actual situation in China, I analyzed release mode, the main issue, issue type, distribution methods and other issues of China's local government bonds. Finally, I designed a scientific mechanism of local government debt security in the principle of income risk.
The fifth part pays attentions to municipal bond pricing issue. First of all, I analyzed the three factors, including macroeconomy, industry and risk, which affect pricing bonds. Secondly, I studied the term structure theories of municipal bonds, and then constructed and verified a municipal bond pricing model. Finally, I did the regression analysis by putting the data of Jiangsu province into the model, and calculated the reasonable debt scale.
The sixth part studies the credit risk and market regulations of municipal bond. I built the municipal bond credit risk analysis system based on the KMV model, after studying the bond valuation and carrying out empirical analysis based on the data from Jiangsu Province. At the same time, I took up the successful experiences of the United States's governments and agencies on municipal bond rating, and studied how to construct China's municipal bond market supervision system, to put forward to build our country municipal bond credit rating policy recommendations.
The last part tells the policy suggestions. It is a systematic project to address the risk of LGFVs. Starting from the market mechanism of LGFVs; the paper firstly systematically studies the issuing and pricing the municipal bond and has put forward feasible policy suggestions on improving the credit risk and strengthening the market supervision system.
引文
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