中金融监管制度优化与金融结构协调性研究
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摘要
金融监管制度的优化和完善关系到一国乃至全世界的金融安全和金融发展。2008年国际金融危机中,各国金融监管制度在监管金融风险中存在的问题得以暴露。防范金融风险与维护国家金融安全成为各国金融监管制度改革的方向和目标。以往对金融监管制度的研究主要集中在金融监管的成本与效率研究、金融监管的必要性研究和金融监管的模式研究。本文从一个创新的视角——金融结构来研究金融监管制度的优化。
金融结构的提出发端于金融发展经济学,是基于金融对经济发展的影响而逐渐形成的。但是随着信息经济学、公司金融、内生经济增长理论的发展,金融结构的研究领域不断扩展,主要包括：金融结构与经济增长关系、信息经济学视角下的金融结构研究和“两分法”的争论。对金融监管的研究主要围绕着金融监管的必要性、金融监管的有效性和金融监管体制研究。通过对文献的梳理发现,基于金融结构视角的金融监管制度优化研究在理论中属于空白,对此问题的研究具有理论创新价值和实际意义。通过梳理中国金融监管制度的变迁过程,总结出其运行机理和发展特点。并且结合中国金融结构发展的历程,分析了中国金融结构的特点和现状。
研究金融监管制度与金融结构相协调与优化,需要对中国金融结构进行测度。论文构建了一个测度中国金融结构的指标体系。首先利用Goldsmith的金融相关比率FIR对中国金融结构进行初步测度。在此基础上,对金融结构从四维度(金融工具、金融机构、融资结构和金融开放程度),’一共十五个指标进行测度,得到中国金融结构综合指数。测度结构表明自2006年以来,我国的金融结构呈现上升趋势,金融结构不断优化升级,金融深化程度加强。
论文从金融监管程度和金融监管结构这两个维度研究金融监管制度与金融结构的内在联系。结合理论分析,得出两个推论：1.金融监管制度的“松”或“紧”的变动与金融结构存在内在联系,金融监管制度的变迁应当与金融结构的发展相匹配。2.金融监管制度的监管结构受金融结构影响,应当与金融结构相匹配。为了证明以上两个推论的正确性,构建了金融监管制度与金融结构相关性的MLOGIT模型和金融监管制度与金融结构关系的SUR模型。金融监管制度与金融结构相关性的MLOGIT模型的实证结果证明了金融结构中的金融深化对金融监管制度中的监管结构存在显著性影响；主导金融机构不是影响金融监管制度的显著因素;市场自由化程度越高越倾向于混业监管；部分混业监管的国家,其政府效率较低；人均收入影响金融监管制度是非对称的。基于MLOGIT模型的实证结果基本上证实了推论1。金融监管制度与金融结构关系的SUR模型中采用两个指标来度量金融监管制度的程度：法定存款准备金率(RI)和存贷利差(RATE)。实证结果表明：金融深化程度与金融监管程度呈反向变动的关系；主导金融机构类型对金融监管程度不具有显著性影响;银行集中度与金融监管程度呈正向变动的关系。综合来说,金融监管制度的选择,无论是在模式上选择“分业监管”或“混业监管”,还是在程度上选择“严格监管”或“宽松监管”,都要与客观存在的金融结构相协调。当金融结构深化程度较高的时候,倾向于选择混业监管,以及选择较为宽松的监管程度。当金融结构深化程度较低的时候,倾向于选择“分业监管”和“严格监管”。当市场自由度较高的时候,倾向选择“混业监管”。当银行集中度上升到一定阶段的时候,说明金融监管制度偏紧,如果继续“严格监管”,将造成银行业垄断势力增加,不利于银行结构的优化,可以酌情改变金融监管制度,选择“宽松监管”。
在分析金融监管制度优化的研究中,引入新制度经济学的分析框架。在新制度经济学的分析框架下,运用动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)分析了金融结构约束下的金融监管制度变迁与优化。其结果表明,金融结构对金融制度的变迁具有显著的影响,在金融监管制度变迁路径中,一旦出现金融结构的变动,势必影响整个金融监管制度的变迁。金融监管制度如果想得到优化,最主要的是要与金融结构相协调。金融结构是金融监管制度存在的环境,也是金融监管制度对象存在的环境。
一个优化的金融监管制度必须同金融结构相协调。如果金融监管制度无法与金融结构相协调,就会产生一系列监管问题：监管真空、监管重复、跨境监管问题和系统性风险监管问题。论文最后对金融监管中出现的问题进行分析,针对这些问题提出了政策建议。结合现有的金融监管制度和对未来的合理预期,提出一个未来金融监管制度的构想,即在混业经营的大趋势下,分业监管模式将被大部制的混业监管模式取代,大部制混业监管模式可能为最优的金融监管制度。
Optimizing and improving the financial regulatory system is related to the financial security and financial development of a country and the world.The financial crisis in2008exposured the problems in financial regulatory system. Guard ing against the financial risks and maintaining financial security have become the focus of the study. The past study about financial regulatory system has focused on the costs and benefits of financial regulation, the needs for financial regulation and financial supervision modes. This paper analyzes the optimization of the financial regulatory system from thefinancialstructure.
Financial structure come from Financial Development Economics, which formed based on the financial impact of economic development. However, with the development of information economics, corporate finance, and the endogenous growth theory, the studying field of financial structure has been expanded, including the relationship between financial structure and economic growth, the financial structure in Information Economics and dichotomy controversy. The researches on financial regulation are mainly centered on the need for financial regulation, the effectiveness of financial supervision and financial regulation institutional research. By combing the literatures, wefind that the perspective of theoptimization of financial regulatory system based on the financial structure is a new study in this field.We analyzed the development course of China's financial regulatory system and financial structure, and studied operation mechanism and characteristics of China's financial regulatory system.We summarized the characteristics of China's financial structure and analyzed the status quo of China's financial regulatory system and financial structure.
If we want to study the coordination and optimization about financial regulatory system and financial structure, we should measure the China's financial structure. This paper constructs an index system to measure China's financial structure. Firstly, we use the Goldsmith's financial ratio (FIR) to measure of China's financial structure. And then we measured the financial structure from the four dimensions (financial instruments, financial institutions, financial structure and financial degree of openness), with15indicators in all.And we have the Composite Index of China's financial structure. The measure outcome shows that since2006, China's financial structure is on the rise, and the financial structure optimization and upgrading of financial deepening strengthen.
This paper studied the internal relations of the financial regulatory system and financial structure from these two dimensions:the degree of financial regulation and financial supervision structure.From theoretical analysis, we draw two conclusions:1.Financial regulatory system "loose" and "tight" changes in financial structure is intrinsically linked to the different financial structure, corresponding to a different degree of financial supervision system.2.The regulatory structure affected by the financial structure. In order to prove the correctness of these two inferences,this paper construct the MLOGIT model about the correlation of financial regulatory system and financial structure,and the SUR model on relation fo financial regulatory system and financial structure.According to empirical results fo two models,we have the conclusions:the financial structure of financial deepening dimension exists a significant impact on the regulatory structure of the financial regulatory system; leading financial institutions don't affect the financial regulatory system significantly; The higher the degree of liberalization of market, the more likely mixed supervision; the part mixed supervision of the national government efficiency is lower; the impact of Per Capita Income on the financial regulatory system is asymmetric. The empirical results based on MLOGIT model basically confirmed Corollary1.The SUR model uses two indicators to measure the financial regulatory system:statutory deposit reserve ratio (RI) and deposit and lending interest rate (RATE). The empirical results show that:the degree of financial deepening and financial supervision reverse on the relationship of the change; leading financial institutions type does not have a significant effect on the degree of financial supervision; the relationship between bank concentration and the degree of financial supervision is positive. In summary, the choice of the financial regulatory system, whether it is selected in the mode the "separate supervision "or" mixed supervision ", or the degree of strict supervision "or" lightly regulated", should becoordinated to the financial structure. When financial structure developed to high degree, the probability of selectting mixed supervision raised.
When the deepening of the financial structure of less tendency to select "separate supervision and strict supervision." The higher degree of freedom in the market, tend to choose "mixed supervision." When bank concentration rises to a certain stage, the financial regulatory system is tight, if it continues to "strict supervision", resulting in the increase in the monopoly power of the banking industry is not conducive to the optimization of the banking structure, the discretion to change the financial regulatory system, select the light regulation.
Studying on optimization of financial regulatory system, we intreduce the analytical framework of the New Institutional Economics. In the analytical framework of the new institutional economics, this paper uses dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) to analyze the changes and optimization of the financial regulatory system under constraints of the financial structure.The results show that the financial structure has a significant impact on changes of the financial system and the path of the financial regulatory system. The changes in financial structure are bound to affect the entire financial regulatory system changes. If you want to optimize the financial regulatory system, the most important thing is to coordinate to financial structure. An optimal financial regulatory system must be coordinated with the financial structure. If the financial regulatory system and financial structure can not be coordinated, it will produce a series of regulatory issues:regulatory vacuum, regulatory duplication and cross-border regulatory issues and systemic risk regulatory issues. Finally, combining with the existing financial regulatory system, this paper expected to put forward the idea of a future financial regulatory system.With the mixed operation trend, separate supervision mode will be replaced by the mixed supervision model.
金融结构的提出发端于金融发展经济学,是基于金融对经济发展的影响而逐渐形成的。但是随着信息经济学、公司金融、内生经济增长理论的发展,金融结构的研究领域不断扩展,主要包括：金融结构与经济增长关系、信息经济学视角下的金融结构研究和“两分法”的争论。对金融监管的研究主要围绕着金融监管的必要性、金融监管的有效性和金融监管体制研究。通过对文献的梳理发现,基于金融结构视角的金融监管制度优化研究在理论中属于空白,对此问题的研究具有理论创新价值和实际意义。通过梳理中国金融监管制度的变迁过程,总结出其运行机理和发展特点。并且结合中国金融结构发展的历程,分析了中国金融结构的特点和现状。
研究金融监管制度与金融结构相协调与优化,需要对中国金融结构进行测度。论文构建了一个测度中国金融结构的指标体系。首先利用Goldsmith的金融相关比率FIR对中国金融结构进行初步测度。在此基础上,对金融结构从四维度(金融工具、金融机构、融资结构和金融开放程度),’一共十五个指标进行测度,得到中国金融结构综合指数。测度结构表明自2006年以来,我国的金融结构呈现上升趋势,金融结构不断优化升级,金融深化程度加强。
论文从金融监管程度和金融监管结构这两个维度研究金融监管制度与金融结构的内在联系。结合理论分析,得出两个推论：1.金融监管制度的“松”或“紧”的变动与金融结构存在内在联系,金融监管制度的变迁应当与金融结构的发展相匹配。2.金融监管制度的监管结构受金融结构影响,应当与金融结构相匹配。为了证明以上两个推论的正确性,构建了金融监管制度与金融结构相关性的MLOGIT模型和金融监管制度与金融结构关系的SUR模型。金融监管制度与金融结构相关性的MLOGIT模型的实证结果证明了金融结构中的金融深化对金融监管制度中的监管结构存在显著性影响；主导金融机构不是影响金融监管制度的显著因素;市场自由化程度越高越倾向于混业监管；部分混业监管的国家,其政府效率较低；人均收入影响金融监管制度是非对称的。基于MLOGIT模型的实证结果基本上证实了推论1。金融监管制度与金融结构关系的SUR模型中采用两个指标来度量金融监管制度的程度：法定存款准备金率(RI)和存贷利差(RATE)。实证结果表明：金融深化程度与金融监管程度呈反向变动的关系；主导金融机构类型对金融监管程度不具有显著性影响;银行集中度与金融监管程度呈正向变动的关系。综合来说,金融监管制度的选择,无论是在模式上选择“分业监管”或“混业监管”,还是在程度上选择“严格监管”或“宽松监管”,都要与客观存在的金融结构相协调。当金融结构深化程度较高的时候,倾向于选择混业监管,以及选择较为宽松的监管程度。当金融结构深化程度较低的时候,倾向于选择“分业监管”和“严格监管”。当市场自由度较高的时候,倾向选择“混业监管”。当银行集中度上升到一定阶段的时候,说明金融监管制度偏紧,如果继续“严格监管”,将造成银行业垄断势力增加,不利于银行结构的优化,可以酌情改变金融监管制度,选择“宽松监管”。
在分析金融监管制度优化的研究中,引入新制度经济学的分析框架。在新制度经济学的分析框架下,运用动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)分析了金融结构约束下的金融监管制度变迁与优化。其结果表明,金融结构对金融制度的变迁具有显著的影响,在金融监管制度变迁路径中,一旦出现金融结构的变动,势必影响整个金融监管制度的变迁。金融监管制度如果想得到优化,最主要的是要与金融结构相协调。金融结构是金融监管制度存在的环境,也是金融监管制度对象存在的环境。
一个优化的金融监管制度必须同金融结构相协调。如果金融监管制度无法与金融结构相协调,就会产生一系列监管问题：监管真空、监管重复、跨境监管问题和系统性风险监管问题。论文最后对金融监管中出现的问题进行分析,针对这些问题提出了政策建议。结合现有的金融监管制度和对未来的合理预期,提出一个未来金融监管制度的构想,即在混业经营的大趋势下,分业监管模式将被大部制的混业监管模式取代,大部制混业监管模式可能为最优的金融监管制度。
Optimizing and improving the financial regulatory system is related to the financial security and financial development of a country and the world.The financial crisis in2008exposured the problems in financial regulatory system. Guard ing against the financial risks and maintaining financial security have become the focus of the study. The past study about financial regulatory system has focused on the costs and benefits of financial regulation, the needs for financial regulation and financial supervision modes. This paper analyzes the optimization of the financial regulatory system from thefinancialstructure.
Financial structure come from Financial Development Economics, which formed based on the financial impact of economic development. However, with the development of information economics, corporate finance, and the endogenous growth theory, the studying field of financial structure has been expanded, including the relationship between financial structure and economic growth, the financial structure in Information Economics and dichotomy controversy. The researches on financial regulation are mainly centered on the need for financial regulation, the effectiveness of financial supervision and financial regulation institutional research. By combing the literatures, wefind that the perspective of theoptimization of financial regulatory system based on the financial structure is a new study in this field.We analyzed the development course of China's financial regulatory system and financial structure, and studied operation mechanism and characteristics of China's financial regulatory system.We summarized the characteristics of China's financial structure and analyzed the status quo of China's financial regulatory system and financial structure.
If we want to study the coordination and optimization about financial regulatory system and financial structure, we should measure the China's financial structure. This paper constructs an index system to measure China's financial structure. Firstly, we use the Goldsmith's financial ratio (FIR) to measure of China's financial structure. And then we measured the financial structure from the four dimensions (financial instruments, financial institutions, financial structure and financial degree of openness), with15indicators in all.And we have the Composite Index of China's financial structure. The measure outcome shows that since2006, China's financial structure is on the rise, and the financial structure optimization and upgrading of financial deepening strengthen.
This paper studied the internal relations of the financial regulatory system and financial structure from these two dimensions:the degree of financial regulation and financial supervision structure.From theoretical analysis, we draw two conclusions:1.Financial regulatory system "loose" and "tight" changes in financial structure is intrinsically linked to the different financial structure, corresponding to a different degree of financial supervision system.2.The regulatory structure affected by the financial structure. In order to prove the correctness of these two inferences,this paper construct the MLOGIT model about the correlation of financial regulatory system and financial structure,and the SUR model on relation fo financial regulatory system and financial structure.According to empirical results fo two models,we have the conclusions:the financial structure of financial deepening dimension exists a significant impact on the regulatory structure of the financial regulatory system; leading financial institutions don't affect the financial regulatory system significantly; The higher the degree of liberalization of market, the more likely mixed supervision; the part mixed supervision of the national government efficiency is lower; the impact of Per Capita Income on the financial regulatory system is asymmetric. The empirical results based on MLOGIT model basically confirmed Corollary1.The SUR model uses two indicators to measure the financial regulatory system:statutory deposit reserve ratio (RI) and deposit and lending interest rate (RATE). The empirical results show that:the degree of financial deepening and financial supervision reverse on the relationship of the change; leading financial institutions type does not have a significant effect on the degree of financial supervision; the relationship between bank concentration and the degree of financial supervision is positive. In summary, the choice of the financial regulatory system, whether it is selected in the mode the "separate supervision "or" mixed supervision ", or the degree of strict supervision "or" lightly regulated", should becoordinated to the financial structure. When financial structure developed to high degree, the probability of selectting mixed supervision raised.
When the deepening of the financial structure of less tendency to select "separate supervision and strict supervision." The higher degree of freedom in the market, tend to choose "mixed supervision." When bank concentration rises to a certain stage, the financial regulatory system is tight, if it continues to "strict supervision", resulting in the increase in the monopoly power of the banking industry is not conducive to the optimization of the banking structure, the discretion to change the financial regulatory system, select the light regulation.
Studying on optimization of financial regulatory system, we intreduce the analytical framework of the New Institutional Economics. In the analytical framework of the new institutional economics, this paper uses dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) to analyze the changes and optimization of the financial regulatory system under constraints of the financial structure.The results show that the financial structure has a significant impact on changes of the financial system and the path of the financial regulatory system. The changes in financial structure are bound to affect the entire financial regulatory system changes. If you want to optimize the financial regulatory system, the most important thing is to coordinate to financial structure. An optimal financial regulatory system must be coordinated with the financial structure. If the financial regulatory system and financial structure can not be coordinated, it will produce a series of regulatory issues:regulatory vacuum, regulatory duplication and cross-border regulatory issues and systemic risk regulatory issues. Finally, combining with the existing financial regulatory system, this paper expected to put forward the idea of a future financial regulatory system.With the mixed operation trend, separate supervision mode will be replaced by the mixed supervision model.
引文
1 chumpeter, J.A. (1912),The Theory of Economic Development, translated by R. Opie. Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1934.
2 James R,Barth, Gerard Caprio Jr., and Ross Levine. Bank regulation and supervision:what works best? Journal of Financial Intermediation 13(2004) 205-248.
3 Stigler G.J.,"The THEORY OF Economic Regulation,"the Bell Journal of Economic and Management Science, Vol.2,1971.
11 F. Modigliani and M. H. Miller. "The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance, and the Theory oflnvestment."American Economic Review, Volume 48 (June 1958).
12 D. F. Scott, Jr. and J. D. Martin. "Industry Influence on Financial Structure."FinancialManagement, Volume 4 (Spring 1976).
13 L. Remmers, A. Stonehill, R. Wright and T. Beekhuisen. "Industry and Size as Debt RatioDeterminants in Manufacturingl nternationally."F inancial Management, Volume 3 (Spring1975).
14 雷蒙德.W.戈德史密斯著,周朔等译,《金融结构与金融发展》,上海三联出版社,1990年1月第1版,P3。
15 雷蒙德.W.戈德史密斯著,周朔等译,《金融结构与金融发展》,上海三联出版社,1990年1月第1版,P44。
16 刘军梅,从产权结构与金融相关比率看俄罗斯金融发展,《复旦学报(社会科学版)》,2006年第4期,P89-P94。
17 金融结构健全性指数FSI：综合了金融工具、金融机构、金融市场和金融制度性质的指数。详见：刘仁伍.《金融结构健全性和金融发展可持续性的实证评估方法》.《金融研究》.2002年第1期。
19 Gorsuch,R.L (1988). Exploratory factor analysis. In J. Nesselroade & R.B. Cattell (Eds.),Handbook of multivariate experimental psychology. New York:Plenum Press.
20 《格拉斯-斯蒂尔法案》：该法案于1933年在罗斯福新政中颁发,不仅是严格监管的标准,也规定了投资银行业务与商业银行业务严格划分,确立了分业经营和分业监管的制度框架。
21 澳大利亚成立大澳大利亚证券和投资委员会,负责对银行、证券和保险等金融业务行为的监管。成立澳大利亚审慎监管局,负责整个金融体系的审慎监管,保证所有金融机构的稳健运行。
22 荷兰将保险公司和养老金的监管并入中央银行,并且建立了独立的金融市场监管机构。
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