华南和江淮地区夏季风期间降水和对流的一些统计特征和个例研究
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摘要
以往关于亚洲-太平洋夏季风的研究主要集中于大尺度环流、天气系统和降水分布，而对其降水和对流特征的研究很少，尤其对东亚夏季风降水和对流特征的研究更少。本研究是对东亚夏季风降水特征和对流特性的研究的一个补充，以东亚夏季风区内南北相邻的两个子区域——中国东南部的华南和江淮地区为研究区域，利用多年的热带测雨卫星（TRMM）资料、地面降水资料对比分析了华南和江淮地区季风降水活跃期的降水特征和对流特性来揭示东亚夏季风季节性北进时季风降水系统的变化特点，并且还分别对比了两个地区从季风降水前期、活跃期、停滞期到后期的降水特征和对流特征的季节内变化来研究降水系统的季节内变化特点。同时也研究了夏季风影响下华南和江淮地区极端对流的特征，基于多年TRMM资料统计了中国东南部地区极端对流的地理分布和日变化特征，并对重点区域江淮平原地区的极端宽对流（相邻的高于40dBZ且有近地面降水的回波面积1000km2）的天气形势分类和地面强对流天气现象特征。最后利用华南季风降水试验（SCMREX）收集的丰富观测数据分析了2013年5月10日发生在广东西部沿海地区的一次极端强降水过程的发生发展过程和机制、以及对流特性。主要结论如下：
（1）通过对比分析1998-2010年华南季风降水活跃期和江淮梅雨活跃期的降水特征和对流特性可知，华南季风降水活跃期和江淮梅雨活跃期的降水特征和对流特性的差异与这两个地区的地形特征、环境大气条件和主要天气系统有密切的关系。一方面，江淮梅雨活跃期降水系统的对流强度更强是与该地区降水系统发生时伴随着更多和更强的地面锋面和850hPa低涡是一致的。另一方面，华南季风降水活跃期降水系统的发生频率和总累积降水量更多，这主要是由于华南地区内有更多山脉地形和更临近海洋的原因。
（2）通过对比分析1998-2010年华南和江淮地区从季风降水前期、活跃期、停滞期到后期的降水特征和对流特性的季节内变化特征，发现华南和江淮地区这四个时期的降水在形成机制上存在着尺度差异：季风降水活跃期和前期降水系统的形成更多地与大尺度天气系统（动力驱动）有关，而季风降水后期和停滞期降水系统的形成则更多地决定于太阳加热造成的局地不稳定（热力驱动）。这种形成机制的尺度差异可以用来解释季风降水后期和停滞期降水系统的面积比其他两个时期较小，以及季风降水后期的对流系统的日变化有明显的午后峰值。
（3）利用1998-2010年TRMM资料定义了两种类型的极端对流：基于对流强度因子和基于对流三维回波结构（深对流、宽对流和宽广层云）的极端对流，并分析了中国东南部地区极端对流的地理分布和日变化，发现江淮平原地区是中国东南部地区夏季风期间各种类型极端对流（宽对流层云除外）最大面积的发生频率极大值中心。从日变化来看，极端深对流和基于对流强度因子定义的极端对流都有一个明显的午后峰值，而极端宽对流有凌晨和午后两个峰值，说明它们有着不同的形成机制。对比极端深对流，极端宽对流有更大的面积和更强的降水强度，这主要是由于极端宽对流对应有更有利于大面积强降水发展的大气环流条件，但深对流有更强的对流不稳定条件。
（4）基于ERA-interim资料提供的500hPa高度场资料，并利用客观分析方法将1998-2010年夏季风期间江淮平原地区的极端宽对流的天气形势分为三类：深槽控制型、副高维持型和台风影响型，其中副高维持型是最常见的。深槽控制型出现最早（5月），副高维持型在7月上半月出现最频繁，台风影响型主要在7-8月。几乎所有的极端宽对流都对应有雷暴出现，这主要是与CAPE大和水汽充足有关。在这三种天气型中，深槽控制型出现时江淮平原地区大气最干冷，因此造成了其短时强降水发生最少。大风在深槽控制型发生最频繁，这主要是与该天气型的中、低层的空气湿度差异最大有关。冰雹在这三种天气型中很少发生，这是由于三种天气型的江淮平原地区太湿润，以及副高维持型的零度层高度过高（>5km）造成的。
（5）对SCMREX期间2013年5月10日造成广东西部沿海地区的极端降水（19小时累积降水量为451mm）的一次长生命史的中尺度对流系统发生发展过程进行研究表明：该暴雨发生的天气条件特征是小对流抑制能量、中等对流有效位能、中等可降水量、低抬升凝结高度以及缺少来自热带洋面的低空急流。在中尺度对流发展的早期和成熟阶段都是重复的对流后向建立和持续地向东北方向移动的对流单体回波火车列。然而这两个阶段对流触发和维持的机制以及对流的组织形态是有差异的：在对流发展的早期阶段（午夜到清晨），近地层的东南风和南风受到龙高山和鹅凰嶂（最高海拔高度分别为800和1300m左右）东侧的抬升作用而持续地触发对流，对流产生后向东北方向移动，因此形成了两条准静止的雨带；在对流发展的成熟阶段（清晨到下午），降水造成的冷池出流边界上一直重复触发产生新对流，并形成了几条雨带，这些雨带最开始是准静止的，几个小时后向东移动。每条雨带都是由向东北方向移动的对流单体火车列和在东北方向的层状性降水区组成的。在对流消散阶段，一条从西边移来的强盛飑线系统自西向东影响广东西部沿海地区，历经3.5个小时，但是对总降水量的贡献只有10%-15%。总体来说，地形、近地面风场和降水产生的冷池出流在这次暴雨中尺度对流系统的初生和维持过程中起着重要的作用。
Largescale circulation, weather systems, and horizontal distribution of rainfallassociated with the Asian-Pacific summer monsoon have been extensively studied, but therehave been few studies on characteristics of rainfall and convection of the Asian-Pacificsummer monsoon, especially fewer for the East Asian summer monsoon. The present studymakes compensation to previous studies on characteristics of precipitation and convectionover the East Asian summer monsoon region, and focus on two north and south adjacentsubregions of the East Asian summer monsoon region: South China (SC) and Yangtze-HuaiRiver Basin (YHRB) in the southeastern China. Comparisons of rainfall characteristics andconvective properties of precipitation systems over SC and YHRB regions during theirmonsoon active periods are made to reveal variations of monsoonal precipitation systemsalong with the northward march of the East Asian summer monsoon. In each region, thesubseasonal variations of rainfall characteristics and convective properties of precipitationsystems during from pre-monsoon, monsoon active and break, further to post-monsoonperiod are also compared to unveil subseasonal transitions of precipitation systems, based onmultiple years of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) dataset and stationrainfall observation. Meanwhile, the characteristics of extreme convection over SC andYHRB, spatial distribution and diurnal variations of extreme convection in the southeasternChina are studied based on multiple years of TRMM dataset. Moreover, the synoptic patternand weather phenomena is associated with extreme wide convection (WC in short, defined asTSYN ZTZX TS\YN\40dBZ echo with near surface rainfall exceeding1000km2) overthe key region, Yangtze-Huai Plain, are further investigated. In the last, the process andmechanism of initiation and evolution and convective properties of a long-lived extremerainfall producing mesoscale convective system (MCS) developed over western coastalregion of Guangdong on10May2013are analyzed using multiple observations from SouthChina Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX). The main conclusions are as follows.
(1) By comparisons of rainfall characteristics and convective properties of precipitationsystems over SC and YHRB regions during their monsoon active periods of1998-2010, it is found that the differences in precipitation characteristics and convective properties betweenSC and YHRB are closely related to the topographic features, environmental atmosphericconditions and major weather systems in the two regions. The stronger convection in theYHRB during the monsoon active period is found to coincide with higher concurrentpresence and stronger intensity of the surface front and lower-level vortex in that region. Onthe other hand, the more frequent occurrence of precipitation systems and larger rainfallaccumulation in SC can be traced to the more mountainous land closer proximity to theocean.
(2) Comparisons of subseasonal variations of rainfall characteristics and convectiveproperties of precipitation systems over SC and YHRB regions from pre-monsoon, monsoonactive and break, further to post-monsoon period suggest that there is a scale difference in thedriving mechanisms for rainfall production during the four periods over both SC and YHRB:the precipitation systems are more controlled by larger-scale weather systems (dynamicallydriven) during pre-monsoon and monsoon active periods, but more by local instability due tosolar heating (thermodynamically driven) during the post-monsoon and monsoon breakperiods. This scale difference can largely explain the smaller horizontal extents of theprecipitation systems in the post-monsoon and monsoon break periods. It can also contributeto the more pronounced afternoon-peaks in the diurnal cycles of the occurrence of thepost-monsoon convective storms.
(3) By utilizing TRMM dataset of1998-2010, two definition methods of extremeconvection are applied according to proxies of convective intensity and three dimensionstructure of convection (classified into extreme deep convection, WC, and broad stratiform).The geographical distributions and diurnal variations of these kinds of extreme convectionsshow that the Yangtze-Huai Plain is the largest area with the maximal frequency ofoccurrences of all extreme convections (exclude broad stratiform) over the southeast Chinaduring the summer monsoon period. Diurnal variations of extreme deep convection andextreme convections defined according to proxies of convective intensity are all with asignificant peak in the afternoon, while extreme WC has two peaks in early morning andafternoon, suggesting the different formation mechanism between the two kinds of extremeconvections. Compared with the extreme deep convection, the extreme deep convection is with larger area and stronger rainfall intensity due to more favorable atmospheric circulationconditions for the formation of precipitation with larger area and stronger rainfall intensity,however, the extreme deep convection is with stronger convective instability condition.
(4) Based on geopotential height on500hPa from ERA-interim dataset, an impersonalanalysis method is adopt to classified the environmental fields of extreme WCs inYangtze-Huai Plain during summer monsoon periods of1998-2010into three weatherpatterns: deep-trough-control (DTr), subtropical-high-maintenance (STH) and typhoon-effect(Typh), and the STH is the most popular. Among the three patterns, the extreme WCs underthe DTr pattern start to emerge the earliest (16-31May); the extreme WCs under the STHpattern have a significant peak in the first half of July; Those under the Typh pattern mainlyoccur in July and August. Nearly all of the extreme WCs in this region accompany withthunderstorms supported by large convective available potential energy and abundantmoisture. Among the three synoptic patterns, the DTr pattern features the driest and coldestair in the region, leading to the least occurrences of short-duration heavy rainfall. Gales occurthe most often under the DTr pattern, probably owing to the largest difference in air humiditybetween mid-and low-level layers. Hail at the surface is rare for all extreme WCs, which isrelated to the humid environmental air under all weather patterns and the high (>5km)freezing level under the STH pattern.
(5) A long-lived mesoscale convective system (MCS) with extreme rainfall (451mm in19hours) over the western coastal region of Guangdong on10May2013during theSouthern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX) is studied. The environmentalconditions are characterized by little convective inhibition, moderate convective availablepotential energy, moderate precipitable water, low lifting condensation level, and lack oflow-level jets from the tropical ocean. Repeated convective back-building and subsequentnortheastward "echo training" of convective cells are found during the MCS’s earlydevelopment and mature stages. However, the earlier and later stages possess distinctiveinitiation/maintenance factors and organization of convection. During the earlier stage frommidnight to early-morning, convection is continuously initiated when weak southeasterly andsoutherly flows near the surface impinge on the east sides of Mts. Longgao and Ehuangzhang(with their respective peaks of approximately800and1300m) and moves northeastward, leading to formation of two quasi-stationary rainbands. During the mature stage fromearly-morning to early-afternoon, new convection is repeatedly triggered along aprecipitation-induced cold outflow boundary, resulting in the formation of several rainbandsthat are quasi-stationary and move eastward in later times. Individual rainbands during thestages similarly consist of northeastward training of convective cells and a stratiform regionto the northeast. While the MCS dissipates, a stronger squall line moves into the region fromthe west and passes over within about3.5hours, contributing about10%-15%to the totalrainfall amount. It is concluded that terrain, near surface winds, and convectively generatedcold outflows play important roles in initiating and maintaining the extreme-rain-producingMCS.
（1）通过对比分析1998-2010年华南季风降水活跃期和江淮梅雨活跃期的降水特征和对流特性可知，华南季风降水活跃期和江淮梅雨活跃期的降水特征和对流特性的差异与这两个地区的地形特征、环境大气条件和主要天气系统有密切的关系。一方面，江淮梅雨活跃期降水系统的对流强度更强是与该地区降水系统发生时伴随着更多和更强的地面锋面和850hPa低涡是一致的。另一方面，华南季风降水活跃期降水系统的发生频率和总累积降水量更多，这主要是由于华南地区内有更多山脉地形和更临近海洋的原因。
（2）通过对比分析1998-2010年华南和江淮地区从季风降水前期、活跃期、停滞期到后期的降水特征和对流特性的季节内变化特征，发现华南和江淮地区这四个时期的降水在形成机制上存在着尺度差异：季风降水活跃期和前期降水系统的形成更多地与大尺度天气系统（动力驱动）有关，而季风降水后期和停滞期降水系统的形成则更多地决定于太阳加热造成的局地不稳定（热力驱动）。这种形成机制的尺度差异可以用来解释季风降水后期和停滞期降水系统的面积比其他两个时期较小，以及季风降水后期的对流系统的日变化有明显的午后峰值。
（3）利用1998-2010年TRMM资料定义了两种类型的极端对流：基于对流强度因子和基于对流三维回波结构（深对流、宽对流和宽广层云）的极端对流，并分析了中国东南部地区极端对流的地理分布和日变化，发现江淮平原地区是中国东南部地区夏季风期间各种类型极端对流（宽对流层云除外）最大面积的发生频率极大值中心。从日变化来看，极端深对流和基于对流强度因子定义的极端对流都有一个明显的午后峰值，而极端宽对流有凌晨和午后两个峰值，说明它们有着不同的形成机制。对比极端深对流，极端宽对流有更大的面积和更强的降水强度，这主要是由于极端宽对流对应有更有利于大面积强降水发展的大气环流条件，但深对流有更强的对流不稳定条件。
（4）基于ERA-interim资料提供的500hPa高度场资料，并利用客观分析方法将1998-2010年夏季风期间江淮平原地区的极端宽对流的天气形势分为三类：深槽控制型、副高维持型和台风影响型，其中副高维持型是最常见的。深槽控制型出现最早（5月），副高维持型在7月上半月出现最频繁，台风影响型主要在7-8月。几乎所有的极端宽对流都对应有雷暴出现，这主要是与CAPE大和水汽充足有关。在这三种天气型中，深槽控制型出现时江淮平原地区大气最干冷，因此造成了其短时强降水发生最少。大风在深槽控制型发生最频繁，这主要是与该天气型的中、低层的空气湿度差异最大有关。冰雹在这三种天气型中很少发生，这是由于三种天气型的江淮平原地区太湿润，以及副高维持型的零度层高度过高（>5km）造成的。
（5）对SCMREX期间2013年5月10日造成广东西部沿海地区的极端降水（19小时累积降水量为451mm）的一次长生命史的中尺度对流系统发生发展过程进行研究表明：该暴雨发生的天气条件特征是小对流抑制能量、中等对流有效位能、中等可降水量、低抬升凝结高度以及缺少来自热带洋面的低空急流。在中尺度对流发展的早期和成熟阶段都是重复的对流后向建立和持续地向东北方向移动的对流单体回波火车列。然而这两个阶段对流触发和维持的机制以及对流的组织形态是有差异的：在对流发展的早期阶段（午夜到清晨），近地层的东南风和南风受到龙高山和鹅凰嶂（最高海拔高度分别为800和1300m左右）东侧的抬升作用而持续地触发对流，对流产生后向东北方向移动，因此形成了两条准静止的雨带；在对流发展的成熟阶段（清晨到下午），降水造成的冷池出流边界上一直重复触发产生新对流，并形成了几条雨带，这些雨带最开始是准静止的，几个小时后向东移动。每条雨带都是由向东北方向移动的对流单体火车列和在东北方向的层状性降水区组成的。在对流消散阶段，一条从西边移来的强盛飑线系统自西向东影响广东西部沿海地区，历经3.5个小时，但是对总降水量的贡献只有10%-15%。总体来说，地形、近地面风场和降水产生的冷池出流在这次暴雨中尺度对流系统的初生和维持过程中起着重要的作用。
Largescale circulation, weather systems, and horizontal distribution of rainfallassociated with the Asian-Pacific summer monsoon have been extensively studied, but therehave been few studies on characteristics of rainfall and convection of the Asian-Pacificsummer monsoon, especially fewer for the East Asian summer monsoon. The present studymakes compensation to previous studies on characteristics of precipitation and convectionover the East Asian summer monsoon region, and focus on two north and south adjacentsubregions of the East Asian summer monsoon region: South China (SC) and Yangtze-HuaiRiver Basin (YHRB) in the southeastern China. Comparisons of rainfall characteristics andconvective properties of precipitation systems over SC and YHRB regions during theirmonsoon active periods are made to reveal variations of monsoonal precipitation systemsalong with the northward march of the East Asian summer monsoon. In each region, thesubseasonal variations of rainfall characteristics and convective properties of precipitationsystems during from pre-monsoon, monsoon active and break, further to post-monsoonperiod are also compared to unveil subseasonal transitions of precipitation systems, based onmultiple years of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) dataset and stationrainfall observation. Meanwhile, the characteristics of extreme convection over SC andYHRB, spatial distribution and diurnal variations of extreme convection in the southeasternChina are studied based on multiple years of TRMM dataset. Moreover, the synoptic patternand weather phenomena is associated with extreme wide convection (WC in short, defined asTSYN ZTZX TS\YN\40dBZ echo with near surface rainfall exceeding1000km2) overthe key region, Yangtze-Huai Plain, are further investigated. In the last, the process andmechanism of initiation and evolution and convective properties of a long-lived extremerainfall producing mesoscale convective system (MCS) developed over western coastalregion of Guangdong on10May2013are analyzed using multiple observations from SouthChina Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX). The main conclusions are as follows.
(1) By comparisons of rainfall characteristics and convective properties of precipitationsystems over SC and YHRB regions during their monsoon active periods of1998-2010, it is found that the differences in precipitation characteristics and convective properties betweenSC and YHRB are closely related to the topographic features, environmental atmosphericconditions and major weather systems in the two regions. The stronger convection in theYHRB during the monsoon active period is found to coincide with higher concurrentpresence and stronger intensity of the surface front and lower-level vortex in that region. Onthe other hand, the more frequent occurrence of precipitation systems and larger rainfallaccumulation in SC can be traced to the more mountainous land closer proximity to theocean.
(2) Comparisons of subseasonal variations of rainfall characteristics and convectiveproperties of precipitation systems over SC and YHRB regions from pre-monsoon, monsoonactive and break, further to post-monsoon period suggest that there is a scale difference in thedriving mechanisms for rainfall production during the four periods over both SC and YHRB:the precipitation systems are more controlled by larger-scale weather systems (dynamicallydriven) during pre-monsoon and monsoon active periods, but more by local instability due tosolar heating (thermodynamically driven) during the post-monsoon and monsoon breakperiods. This scale difference can largely explain the smaller horizontal extents of theprecipitation systems in the post-monsoon and monsoon break periods. It can also contributeto the more pronounced afternoon-peaks in the diurnal cycles of the occurrence of thepost-monsoon convective storms.
(3) By utilizing TRMM dataset of1998-2010, two definition methods of extremeconvection are applied according to proxies of convective intensity and three dimensionstructure of convection (classified into extreme deep convection, WC, and broad stratiform).The geographical distributions and diurnal variations of these kinds of extreme convectionsshow that the Yangtze-Huai Plain is the largest area with the maximal frequency ofoccurrences of all extreme convections (exclude broad stratiform) over the southeast Chinaduring the summer monsoon period. Diurnal variations of extreme deep convection andextreme convections defined according to proxies of convective intensity are all with asignificant peak in the afternoon, while extreme WC has two peaks in early morning andafternoon, suggesting the different formation mechanism between the two kinds of extremeconvections. Compared with the extreme deep convection, the extreme deep convection is with larger area and stronger rainfall intensity due to more favorable atmospheric circulationconditions for the formation of precipitation with larger area and stronger rainfall intensity,however, the extreme deep convection is with stronger convective instability condition.
(4) Based on geopotential height on500hPa from ERA-interim dataset, an impersonalanalysis method is adopt to classified the environmental fields of extreme WCs inYangtze-Huai Plain during summer monsoon periods of1998-2010into three weatherpatterns: deep-trough-control (DTr), subtropical-high-maintenance (STH) and typhoon-effect(Typh), and the STH is the most popular. Among the three patterns, the extreme WCs underthe DTr pattern start to emerge the earliest (16-31May); the extreme WCs under the STHpattern have a significant peak in the first half of July; Those under the Typh pattern mainlyoccur in July and August. Nearly all of the extreme WCs in this region accompany withthunderstorms supported by large convective available potential energy and abundantmoisture. Among the three synoptic patterns, the DTr pattern features the driest and coldestair in the region, leading to the least occurrences of short-duration heavy rainfall. Gales occurthe most often under the DTr pattern, probably owing to the largest difference in air humiditybetween mid-and low-level layers. Hail at the surface is rare for all extreme WCs, which isrelated to the humid environmental air under all weather patterns and the high (>5km)freezing level under the STH pattern.
(5) A long-lived mesoscale convective system (MCS) with extreme rainfall (451mm in19hours) over the western coastal region of Guangdong on10May2013during theSouthern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX) is studied. The environmentalconditions are characterized by little convective inhibition, moderate convective availablepotential energy, moderate precipitable water, low lifting condensation level, and lack oflow-level jets from the tropical ocean. Repeated convective back-building and subsequentnortheastward "echo training" of convective cells are found during the MCS’s earlydevelopment and mature stages. However, the earlier and later stages possess distinctiveinitiation/maintenance factors and organization of convection. During the earlier stage frommidnight to early-morning, convection is continuously initiated when weak southeasterly andsoutherly flows near the surface impinge on the east sides of Mts. Longgao and Ehuangzhang(with their respective peaks of approximately800and1300m) and moves northeastward, leading to formation of two quasi-stationary rainbands. During the mature stage fromearly-morning to early-afternoon, new convection is repeatedly triggered along aprecipitation-induced cold outflow boundary, resulting in the formation of several rainbandsthat are quasi-stationary and move eastward in later times. Individual rainbands during thestages similarly consist of northeastward training of convective cells and a stratiform regionto the northeast. While the MCS dissipates, a stronger squall line moves into the region fromthe west and passes over within about3.5hours, contributing about10%-15%to the totalrainfall amount. It is concluded that terrain, near surface winds, and convectively generatedcold outflows play important roles in initiating and maintaining the extreme-rain-producingMCS.
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