中国大田作物茬高—茬重模型的建立及东北、华北和西北地区秸秆能源利用可获得性
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摘要
大田作物秸秆是可再生的有机资源,且来源丰富、数量巨大,我国每年大田作物秸秆产生量约7.5亿吨,约占全世界的25%左右。秸秆资源的开发利用能促进农业生产系统中的物质高效循环和能量高效转化,成为循环农业中不可或缺的重要资源。秸秆资源有效还田能有效增加土壤有机质含量,改良土壤结构,降低化肥施用量,培肥地力,同时也降低农民生产成本,改善农田生态,消除焚烧秸秆造成的大气污染,对实现农业可持续发展具有十分重要的意义。本研究中运用统计学和系统工程学等理论方法,对我国不同地区的大田作物的不同品种的秸秆资源利用现状、移出量的关联度分析及茬高-茬重关系模型的建立和验证等进行了深入的分析研究,为促进我国大田作物秸秆高效利用提供理论依据。其主要研究结论如下：
(1)我国不同地区的主栽作物类型是各不相同,这与各个地区的气候条件、耕作制度、作物的生长特性等密切相关。作物的株高与地上部生物量的比值和地区、作物品种均无直接相关性,并在地区空间分布上不存在差异。作物收获时留茬高度相同,秸秆移出量占秸秆总量的比值在不同类型作物品种差异不显著(p<0.01)。
(2)从作物类型来看,本研究中涉及9种作物(玉米、水稻、小麦、大豆、高梁、棉花、向日葵、油菜和燕麦)所建立的茬高-茬重关系模型的茬高比与茬重比结果显著相关(P<0.01)。对于同一种作物的不同品种间的茬高比与茬重比的结果显著相关(P<0.01)。线性关系模型的建模决定系数(R2)均高于0.98。验证这9种大田作物秸秆的线性模型,验证线性模型的决定系数(R2)高于0.98。
(3)2010～2011年,华北地区年均田间秸秆量折合标煤量为46.3百万吨,包括42.3百万吨的田间秸秆量和3.9百万吨的加工副产物量。7-9月收获的田间作物秸秆量均值为40.9百万吨。
东北地区年均田间秸秆量为105.7百万吨,其包括92.8百万吨的田间作物秸秆量和12.9百万吨的加工副产物量。此秸秆总量折合标煤量相当于57.0百万吨,7～9月收获的田间作物秸秆产量均值为25.5百万吨。
西北地区年均的秸秆总量59.8百万吨由91.9%的田间秸秆(55.0百万吨)与8.1%的加工副产物(4.8百万吨)组成。9月、6月和10月是最主要的收获月份,收获的秸秆总量为19.2百万吨。2009-2011年西北地区的大田作物秸秆总标煤量为33.4百万吨,包括30.7百万吨的田间秸秆和2.7百万吨的加工副产物量。
(4)2010～2011年,我国的大田作物秸秆总量为7.50亿吨,其中有0.78亿吨的秸秆留茬还田,而秸秆可移出量为5.58亿吨。根据线性模型计算,理论还田量只需1.92亿吨(25.65%)就能满足土壤需求。因此,结果表明我们仍可从大田中移出秸秆资源量即为1.19亿吨。
(5)通过对我国6个地区31个省市、自治区的大田作物秸秆移出量进行灰色关联度分析,影响因素指标排序前三位的分别是作物产量、有效灌溉面积和成灾面积。
Field crop residue is renewable and sustainable organic resource, which has a huge number of sources and rich quantities. There is about750million tons production of field crop residue per year in China, which accounts for about25%of the world. The development and utilization of crop residue resources can promote the agricultural production, the efficient conversion and energy efficient cycle in the cropping system, and have become the indispensable important resources circulation in agriculture. Returning crop residue resource can effectively increase the content of soil organic matter, improve soil structure, reduce the applying fertilizer content, improve soil fertility, and also reduce farmers1production cost, which would be improve the farmland ecology, the elimination of air pollution caused by burning crop residue. It is of great significance to realize the sustainable development of agricultural. The statistical method and system engineering theory would be used in different varieties of the crop residue and utilization in this study, and the analysis of relational correlation model between available quantity and stubble height-stubble weight are carried on to promote theory basis on efficient utilization of field crop residue. Main research conclusion is as follows:
1. The main crop type is different in six regions of China, which has the relation of the climatic conditions in each region, cropping system and crop growth characteristics. The ratio between plant height and aboveground dry matter has no direct correlation to different region, crop varieties. If the same stubble height when harvesting the crops was left, there is no significant difference between varieties with the ratio between the percentages of total crop residue (p<0.01). But there would be slightly different quantity between each variety, which also would not affect stubble weight in different region.
2. It involves nine crops of maize, rice, wheat, soybean, sorghum, cotton, sunflower, canola, and oat from crop classification in this study. The results of the ratio between stubble height and stubble weight in the relational modeling are significantly correlated (P<0.01). And for different varieties of the same crop, the results analysis is the significant correlation without difference values (P<0.01).
3. The average amount of total residue in NC (16.9Million ha) of83.0Mt (Mt=Mega tonnes) annually comprised of76.6Mt field residues and6.4Mt process residues. The average amount of total biomass residue in NEC (19.8Million ha) of105.7Mt annually comprised of92.8Mt field residues and12.9Mt process residues. In NC, the total standard coal equivalent (SCE) averaged for2010and2011amounted to46.4Mt, which comprised42.4Mt field residues and of3.9Mt process residues.
In NEC, the standard coal equivalent (SCE) of57.0Mt comprised49.7Mt field residues and7.4Mt process residues on an air-dried basis. In the period between July-September, the amount of field residue available were40.9Mt (NC) and53.1Mt (NEC), respectively.
In NWC, the average amount of total residue of59.8Mt annually comprised of55.0Mt field residues (91.9%) and4.8Mt process residues (8.1%). The standard coal equivalent (SCE) of33.4Mt comprised30.7Mt field residues and2.7Mt process residues on an air-dried basis. In June, September, and October, the amount of field residue (19.2Mt) was harvested.
4. The amount of750million tons total filed crop residue was estimated in China between2010and2011. Annual311million tons of crop residue was returned, accounting for41.63%of the total crop residue. The sustainable availability of field crop residue could reach558million tons (74.35%), which could be used for sustainable utilization in China. According to this research, sustainable theory capacity returning to soil was192million tons (25.65%) of field crop residue, which can meet the sustainable utilization of soil.
5. Three influence factors in grey correlation degree of available quantity of field crop residue were crop yields, effective irrigation area and the flooded area in thirty-one provinces of six regions of China.
(1)我国不同地区的主栽作物类型是各不相同,这与各个地区的气候条件、耕作制度、作物的生长特性等密切相关。作物的株高与地上部生物量的比值和地区、作物品种均无直接相关性,并在地区空间分布上不存在差异。作物收获时留茬高度相同,秸秆移出量占秸秆总量的比值在不同类型作物品种差异不显著(p<0.01)。
(2)从作物类型来看,本研究中涉及9种作物(玉米、水稻、小麦、大豆、高梁、棉花、向日葵、油菜和燕麦)所建立的茬高-茬重关系模型的茬高比与茬重比结果显著相关(P<0.01)。对于同一种作物的不同品种间的茬高比与茬重比的结果显著相关(P<0.01)。线性关系模型的建模决定系数(R2)均高于0.98。验证这9种大田作物秸秆的线性模型,验证线性模型的决定系数(R2)高于0.98。
(3)2010～2011年,华北地区年均田间秸秆量折合标煤量为46.3百万吨,包括42.3百万吨的田间秸秆量和3.9百万吨的加工副产物量。7-9月收获的田间作物秸秆量均值为40.9百万吨。
东北地区年均田间秸秆量为105.7百万吨,其包括92.8百万吨的田间作物秸秆量和12.9百万吨的加工副产物量。此秸秆总量折合标煤量相当于57.0百万吨,7～9月收获的田间作物秸秆产量均值为25.5百万吨。
西北地区年均的秸秆总量59.8百万吨由91.9%的田间秸秆(55.0百万吨)与8.1%的加工副产物(4.8百万吨)组成。9月、6月和10月是最主要的收获月份,收获的秸秆总量为19.2百万吨。2009-2011年西北地区的大田作物秸秆总标煤量为33.4百万吨,包括30.7百万吨的田间秸秆和2.7百万吨的加工副产物量。
(4)2010～2011年,我国的大田作物秸秆总量为7.50亿吨,其中有0.78亿吨的秸秆留茬还田,而秸秆可移出量为5.58亿吨。根据线性模型计算,理论还田量只需1.92亿吨(25.65%)就能满足土壤需求。因此,结果表明我们仍可从大田中移出秸秆资源量即为1.19亿吨。
(5)通过对我国6个地区31个省市、自治区的大田作物秸秆移出量进行灰色关联度分析,影响因素指标排序前三位的分别是作物产量、有效灌溉面积和成灾面积。
Field crop residue is renewable and sustainable organic resource, which has a huge number of sources and rich quantities. There is about750million tons production of field crop residue per year in China, which accounts for about25%of the world. The development and utilization of crop residue resources can promote the agricultural production, the efficient conversion and energy efficient cycle in the cropping system, and have become the indispensable important resources circulation in agriculture. Returning crop residue resource can effectively increase the content of soil organic matter, improve soil structure, reduce the applying fertilizer content, improve soil fertility, and also reduce farmers1production cost, which would be improve the farmland ecology, the elimination of air pollution caused by burning crop residue. It is of great significance to realize the sustainable development of agricultural. The statistical method and system engineering theory would be used in different varieties of the crop residue and utilization in this study, and the analysis of relational correlation model between available quantity and stubble height-stubble weight are carried on to promote theory basis on efficient utilization of field crop residue. Main research conclusion is as follows:
1. The main crop type is different in six regions of China, which has the relation of the climatic conditions in each region, cropping system and crop growth characteristics. The ratio between plant height and aboveground dry matter has no direct correlation to different region, crop varieties. If the same stubble height when harvesting the crops was left, there is no significant difference between varieties with the ratio between the percentages of total crop residue (p<0.01). But there would be slightly different quantity between each variety, which also would not affect stubble weight in different region.
2. It involves nine crops of maize, rice, wheat, soybean, sorghum, cotton, sunflower, canola, and oat from crop classification in this study. The results of the ratio between stubble height and stubble weight in the relational modeling are significantly correlated (P<0.01). And for different varieties of the same crop, the results analysis is the significant correlation without difference values (P<0.01).
3. The average amount of total residue in NC (16.9Million ha) of83.0Mt (Mt=Mega tonnes) annually comprised of76.6Mt field residues and6.4Mt process residues. The average amount of total biomass residue in NEC (19.8Million ha) of105.7Mt annually comprised of92.8Mt field residues and12.9Mt process residues. In NC, the total standard coal equivalent (SCE) averaged for2010and2011amounted to46.4Mt, which comprised42.4Mt field residues and of3.9Mt process residues.
In NEC, the standard coal equivalent (SCE) of57.0Mt comprised49.7Mt field residues and7.4Mt process residues on an air-dried basis. In the period between July-September, the amount of field residue available were40.9Mt (NC) and53.1Mt (NEC), respectively.
In NWC, the average amount of total residue of59.8Mt annually comprised of55.0Mt field residues (91.9%) and4.8Mt process residues (8.1%). The standard coal equivalent (SCE) of33.4Mt comprised30.7Mt field residues and2.7Mt process residues on an air-dried basis. In June, September, and October, the amount of field residue (19.2Mt) was harvested.
4. The amount of750million tons total filed crop residue was estimated in China between2010and2011. Annual311million tons of crop residue was returned, accounting for41.63%of the total crop residue. The sustainable availability of field crop residue could reach558million tons (74.35%), which could be used for sustainable utilization in China. According to this research, sustainable theory capacity returning to soil was192million tons (25.65%) of field crop residue, which can meet the sustainable utilization of soil.
5. Three influence factors in grey correlation degree of available quantity of field crop residue were crop yields, effective irrigation area and the flooded area in thirty-one provinces of six regions of China.
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