容量机制下考虑技术特性的水火电最优容量结构研究
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摘要
保证发电容量充裕是电力系统稳定运行以及供电可靠性的必要条件。在传统的电力工业中，容量规划由电力主管部门负责。随着电力系统放松管制，分散决策下的发电容量规划责任主体不明确，设计行之有效的容量规划机制成为研究者广泛关注的问题。国内外众多研究认为应当建立容量机制来引导发电容量规划，该容量机制通过容量补偿资金实现投资成本回收进而激励容量投资以保证发电容量充裕性。国内外部分区域电力系统已经建立了相应的容量机制引导机组容量投资以满足容量充裕性。容量规划的经济性是以机组最优容量结构为准则，最优容量结构对应于发电成本最优。然而目前机组最优容量结构仅考虑机组经济特性而忽略了机组的技术特性，这种最优容量结构方式下所获得的容量规划结果不能反映机组的技术特性及其对系统的贡献。为此，本论文将机组的技术特性作为因素来分析并获得机组最优容量结构；并分析容量机制是否能够引导发电机组达到最优容量结构。具体工作以及研究成果如下：
首先，针对目前在分析最优容量结构时仅考虑机组经济特性的现状，本论文将水电电量限制、煤电机组爬坡以及技术出力这三种机组技术特性作为约束条件来分析最优容量结构。通过建立最优容量结构计算模型并分析该模型的最优性条件，给出了最优容量结构中水电电量加载规则，完善了最优容量结构的确定方式。由于水电固定成本较低，仅考虑机组经济特性，水电常被规划为承担负荷的基荷部分，这与实际运行情况不符合，而考虑机组技术特性后，在最优容量结构中，水电被规划为承担负荷的腰荷或者峰荷部分，分析结果表明考虑机组技术特性的最优容量结构能更全面地发挥机组在承担负荷中所起的作用，并符合系统实际运行情况。
其次，分析并论证了各容量机制对最优容量结构的影响。本论文分析了容量支付机制、容量市场机制、长期备用合约机制、两部制以及单一能量市场这五种机制下机组的收益情况；在此基础上，分析机组在各个机制下的利润，并将各机制下系统长期成本最低时的机组容量结构与最优容量结构进行对比分析，得到了各机制对最优容量结构的影响程度；并分析机制引导水电机组达到最优容量结构的报价方式。容量机制通过影响机组利润并影响到机组的投资激励程度，进而影响到各类机组的装机结构，本论文通过分析机组长期利润，获得了如下结论：各个容量机制下峰荷机组的装机容量均略高于最优容量结构，但影响程度与具体机制有关；在电量受限的水电电量报价规则中限制水电运行持续时间可以保证水电机组达到最优容量结构。
最后，通过容量投资引导模型，实证并分析了各机制能否引导机组容量投资达到最优容量结构。各机制以不同的资金补偿的方式作为引导容量投资的经济激励，在此经济激励下，发电机组会按照利润情况决定其容量投资。本论文借鉴这一思路，建立了容量市场、长期备用合约、单一能量市场方式下容量投资引导动态仿真模型。仿真结果表明容量机制可以保证发电容量充裕性，并保证各个机制下装机容量经济最优，仿真结果验证了容量机制对考虑机组技术特性的最优容量结构的影响。
It’s necessary for the power system capacity planning to ensure generation capacityadequacy and generation investment economy. In the traditional power industry, it’s clearthat the power administrative department has the responsibility to establish generationcapacity planning. However, with the power system deregulation, it has been unclear thatwho has the responsibility for generation capacity planning under decentralizeddecision-making, and how to design an effective capacity planning mechanism hasattracted extensive attention worldwide among researchers, government departments,power system organizations of design, operation, regulatory and management. It has beensuggested by many studies at home and abroad that the capacity mechanism should beestablished to ensure the generation capacity planning. Through the capacitycompensation fund for investment cost recovery, the capacity mechanism can motivatenew generation capacity investment to ensure sufficient generating capacity. Severalcapacity mechanisms have been set up by regional power systems at home and abroad toguide generation capacity investment for generation capacity adequacy. The optimalgenerating-capacity structure has been taken as a criterion for the generation investmenteconomy of capacity planning. The optimal cost of generation capacity investment andgeneration operating could be obtained under the optimal generating-capacity structure.However, the economic characteristics of the generation unit have only been consideredfor the optimal generating-capacity structure but neglected of the technical characteristics.The capacity planning result obtained under the optimal generating-capacity structure willnot be able to fully reflect the physical characteristics of the unit and its contribution to thepower system. The technical characteristics of the unit will be considered to the analysisof the optimal generating-capacity structure in this paper. And it has also been analyzedthat if the capacity mechanism would be able to guide the generation capacity achievedoptimal generating-capacity structure. The main research work and the results are asfollows:
Firstly, with the same as economic characteristics the generation unit, the maximumelectric quantity limit of hydropower unit has been integrated into the optimalgenerating-capacity structure, so do the ramp rate and the minimum output of thermal power unit. By establishing the optimal generating-capacity structure model, thehydropower generation capacity with the maximum electric quantity limit has beendetermined. By transforming the ramp rate and the minimum output of thermal power unitinto the economic characteristics of the thermal unit, the optimal generating-capacitystructure has been completed by considering the technical characteristics of the unit.
Second, it has been analyzed that how the capacity mechanisms to effect the optimalgenerating-capacity structure. Based on the analysis of the profit of generation unit underseveral capacity mechanisms, such as capacity payment, capacity market, long-termstrategic reserve contracting, two-part price mechanism and energy-only market, thegenerating-capacity structure will be obtained with the optimal long term costs under thecapacity mechanisms above.
Finally, by the capacity investment model base on system dynamics, it has beenanalyzed that if the capacity mechanisms will be able to guide the generation capacityachieved optimal generating-capacity structure. By the economic incentive to guidecapacity investment from the financial compensation of capacity mechanisms, generationcapacity will be determined in accordance with the profit. Following this dynamics, thecapacity investment dynamics model has been established for capacity mechanisms above.Based on this model, the static and dynamic characteristics of the capacity investmenthave also been analyzed for capacity mechanisms.
首先，针对目前在分析最优容量结构时仅考虑机组经济特性的现状，本论文将水电电量限制、煤电机组爬坡以及技术出力这三种机组技术特性作为约束条件来分析最优容量结构。通过建立最优容量结构计算模型并分析该模型的最优性条件，给出了最优容量结构中水电电量加载规则，完善了最优容量结构的确定方式。由于水电固定成本较低，仅考虑机组经济特性，水电常被规划为承担负荷的基荷部分，这与实际运行情况不符合，而考虑机组技术特性后，在最优容量结构中，水电被规划为承担负荷的腰荷或者峰荷部分，分析结果表明考虑机组技术特性的最优容量结构能更全面地发挥机组在承担负荷中所起的作用，并符合系统实际运行情况。
其次，分析并论证了各容量机制对最优容量结构的影响。本论文分析了容量支付机制、容量市场机制、长期备用合约机制、两部制以及单一能量市场这五种机制下机组的收益情况；在此基础上，分析机组在各个机制下的利润，并将各机制下系统长期成本最低时的机组容量结构与最优容量结构进行对比分析，得到了各机制对最优容量结构的影响程度；并分析机制引导水电机组达到最优容量结构的报价方式。容量机制通过影响机组利润并影响到机组的投资激励程度，进而影响到各类机组的装机结构，本论文通过分析机组长期利润，获得了如下结论：各个容量机制下峰荷机组的装机容量均略高于最优容量结构，但影响程度与具体机制有关；在电量受限的水电电量报价规则中限制水电运行持续时间可以保证水电机组达到最优容量结构。
最后，通过容量投资引导模型，实证并分析了各机制能否引导机组容量投资达到最优容量结构。各机制以不同的资金补偿的方式作为引导容量投资的经济激励，在此经济激励下，发电机组会按照利润情况决定其容量投资。本论文借鉴这一思路，建立了容量市场、长期备用合约、单一能量市场方式下容量投资引导动态仿真模型。仿真结果表明容量机制可以保证发电容量充裕性，并保证各个机制下装机容量经济最优，仿真结果验证了容量机制对考虑机组技术特性的最优容量结构的影响。
It’s necessary for the power system capacity planning to ensure generation capacityadequacy and generation investment economy. In the traditional power industry, it’s clearthat the power administrative department has the responsibility to establish generationcapacity planning. However, with the power system deregulation, it has been unclear thatwho has the responsibility for generation capacity planning under decentralizeddecision-making, and how to design an effective capacity planning mechanism hasattracted extensive attention worldwide among researchers, government departments,power system organizations of design, operation, regulatory and management. It has beensuggested by many studies at home and abroad that the capacity mechanism should beestablished to ensure the generation capacity planning. Through the capacitycompensation fund for investment cost recovery, the capacity mechanism can motivatenew generation capacity investment to ensure sufficient generating capacity. Severalcapacity mechanisms have been set up by regional power systems at home and abroad toguide generation capacity investment for generation capacity adequacy. The optimalgenerating-capacity structure has been taken as a criterion for the generation investmenteconomy of capacity planning. The optimal cost of generation capacity investment andgeneration operating could be obtained under the optimal generating-capacity structure.However, the economic characteristics of the generation unit have only been consideredfor the optimal generating-capacity structure but neglected of the technical characteristics.The capacity planning result obtained under the optimal generating-capacity structure willnot be able to fully reflect the physical characteristics of the unit and its contribution to thepower system. The technical characteristics of the unit will be considered to the analysisof the optimal generating-capacity structure in this paper. And it has also been analyzedthat if the capacity mechanism would be able to guide the generation capacity achievedoptimal generating-capacity structure. The main research work and the results are asfollows:
Firstly, with the same as economic characteristics the generation unit, the maximumelectric quantity limit of hydropower unit has been integrated into the optimalgenerating-capacity structure, so do the ramp rate and the minimum output of thermal power unit. By establishing the optimal generating-capacity structure model, thehydropower generation capacity with the maximum electric quantity limit has beendetermined. By transforming the ramp rate and the minimum output of thermal power unitinto the economic characteristics of the thermal unit, the optimal generating-capacitystructure has been completed by considering the technical characteristics of the unit.
Second, it has been analyzed that how the capacity mechanisms to effect the optimalgenerating-capacity structure. Based on the analysis of the profit of generation unit underseveral capacity mechanisms, such as capacity payment, capacity market, long-termstrategic reserve contracting, two-part price mechanism and energy-only market, thegenerating-capacity structure will be obtained with the optimal long term costs under thecapacity mechanisms above.
Finally, by the capacity investment model base on system dynamics, it has beenanalyzed that if the capacity mechanisms will be able to guide the generation capacityachieved optimal generating-capacity structure. By the economic incentive to guidecapacity investment from the financial compensation of capacity mechanisms, generationcapacity will be determined in accordance with the profit. Following this dynamics, thecapacity investment dynamics model has been established for capacity mechanisms above.Based on this model, the static and dynamic characteristics of the capacity investmenthave also been analyzed for capacity mechanisms.
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