区域电网电压稳定判别方法及系统研究
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摘要
随着我国电力工业的快速发展，电网大规模广域互联和电力市场化改革的不断深入，以及间歇性可再生能源的大量接入，使得电力系统的运行点愈来愈接近稳定极限，而自然灾害多次造成区域电网电压崩溃事故发生，这些都导致电力系统的电压稳定问题比以往更加突出。通常情况下，电网发生电压失稳之前，由于母线电压相角、电网频率甚至电压幅值都相对稳定，系统中的保护和预警装置无法做出预判或动作。因此，如何准确地在线判别和预测复杂运行条件下区域电网的电压稳定性已成为电力调度部门所面临的巨大挑战之一。同步相量测量技术为基于广域同步测量数据的区域电网电压稳定动态分析与预测提供了条件，本文在同步相量测量算法研究的基础上，研究建立电压稳定动态特性分析与预测模型，进而研制区域电网电压稳定在线判别和预测系统，为电力系统电压稳定控制提供理论依据与技术支撑。
本文的主要研究内容有：
（1）针对DFT算法在采样信号频率变化时因频率泄漏及频率失配造成的测量误差，研究PMU（Phasor Measuring Unit，同步相量测量单元）同步采集各相电压、电流信号噪声含量及其动态特性在线估计模型，采用动态特性方差和噪声方差两个参数对采样系统实时状态进行量化，并在此基础上建立频率自适应模型及其求解算法，使频率跟踪算法在动态条件下具有快速的跟踪特性和有较好的抗噪特性；研究采样信号动态特性和衰减直流分量之间相互作用关系，建立基波信号直流分量跟踪模型及算法，进而研究建立动态基波滤波算法，实现电流、电压相量衰减直流分量动态特性估计，将自适应频率跟踪模型与直流分量跟踪模型结合；研究建立基于DFT的改进频率跟踪算法，得到精确的同步相量测量结果。
（2）研究电网节点电压稳定临界点及其薄弱性指标的非线性规划模型与评估方法，建立识别节点电压薄弱状态的解析指标及其求解算法，并在此基础上研究建立区域电网PMU监测点优化配置方法。针对电压失稳先局部扩散后全局崩溃的特性，研究特定区域电力系统电网结构参数下，电网各元件和负荷的动态过程与电网各节点电压间非线性作用关系。基于区域电网数值仿真数据，研究系统逼近电压失稳临界状态过程与电压薄弱状态指标间关系模型，建立以灵敏度dV i/dQi指标的大小为基础，同时采用表征各节点灵敏度变化快慢的灵敏度变化率指标的电网节点电压薄弱程度判别模型，实现区域电网薄弱节点准确识别。在此基础上，针对电网状态可观测性和电压稳定性两方面因素，研究建立基于电压薄弱区域监视的非完全可观测PMU监测点优化配置方法。
（3）研究基于同步相量测量数据的节点电压快速在线判别模型及求解算法，研究电压稳定轨迹的非线性时间序列预测模型及求解方法。针对同步测量的电网局部节点相量测量数据，采用节点及与其相关联的负荷节点的同步电压、电流相量，通过阻抗模和P Q解耦算法得到电网实时等值模型参数，并在此基础上将整个系统等值为一简单的两节点系统，研究建立包含负荷节点的戴维南等值模型，并根据等值模型阻抗模极限值推导出电网电压稳定在线判别指标，对电网电压水平做出快速判别。针对电网电压、电流实时监测数据，研究电网动态电压非线性时间序列分析方法，并重构出电压稳定非线性系统相空间，对重构相空间中相点变化轨迹的预测模型及模型参数进行确定，建立电压稳定的全局预测模型，采用支持向量机模型对动态电压非线性时间序列全局预测模型中非线性映射进行求解，建立非线性时间序列相空间中相轨迹的非线性回归求解方法，实现电网动态电压稳定轨迹的预测。
（4）结合电网广域测量系统（Wide Area Measurement System，WAMS）要求及实际电网运行条件，研究建立区域电网电压稳定判别系统，完成了区域电网电压稳定在线判别与预测应用软件系统开发。在研究建立了区域电网单一节点电压稳定在线判别模型、多节点电压稳定在线辨识模型和电网电压稳定非线性时间序列预测模型的基础上，建立电压稳定判别系统数学模型及算法，以开发改进频率跟踪数据采集算法和电压稳定判别系统数学模型为核心，DSP技术、Visual C++技术和Oracle数据库技术为基础的区域电网电压稳定判别应用系统平台，实现根据电网节点实时监测数据对区域电网电压稳定状态及其相关参数做出在线判别及中短期预测，为电网运行管理部门提供电压稳定性实时判别及预测预报数据，作为电力系统电压稳定控制策略调整的参考和指导。
（5）按照国家电网公司“电网自动电压控制技术规范（Q/GDW747-2012）”技术要求，结合辽宁电网电压稳定控制的实际情况，将区域电网电压稳定判别系统应用于电网实际运行管理系统当中。本文研究开发的区域电网电压稳定判别应用系统，于2012年6月在500kV变电站成功投入运行，实际运行中，系统硬件和软件运行性能稳定，电压稳定在线判别和预测预警结果合理。本文研究建立的区域电网电压稳定判别系统及其电压稳定性在线判别参数和预测结果能够满足电网电压稳定控制工作的实际工程要求。
The operating point of power system draws nearer to its stability limit under severalconditions, such as the rapid development of the power industry in our country, the widerdomain large-scale grid interconnection, the deepening of the electricity market-orientedreforms, and the input of the intermittent renewable energy sources. Moreover, naturaldisasters have repeatedly caused accidents of regional power grid voltage collapse, whichmake voltage stability problem of power system more prominent than ever before. Generally,if the bus voltage angle, power system frequency and the amplitude of voltage are relativelystable, the system protection and warning devices cannot predict or act in advance when thevoltage instability of the power grid happens. As a result, how to accurately online identifyand predict the regional power grid voltage stability on the complex operation conditions hasbecame one of the great challenges that the power dispatching departments are faced with.PMU technology provides conditions for the analysis and prediction of voltage stabilitydynamics, which are based on wide area simultaneous measurement data of the regional powergrid. On the basis of the study of synchronous phasor measurement algorithm, the model ofthe analysis and prediction of voltage stability dynamic characteristics are established in thispaper. Thus, online identification and prediction system of the regional power grid voltagestability is developed. It provides guidance for the voltage stability control to the powersystem operation management department.
The main contents are as follows：
(1)The DFT algorithm causes the measurement errors due to the frequency leakage andfrequency mismatch when the frequency of the sampling signals changes. In this study, anonline model is developed which is using PMU to synchronously collect the noise content anddynamic characteristics of each phase voltage and current signal. It uses dynamiccharacteristics variance and noise variance to quantify the sampling system real-time state.Therefore, frequency adaptive model and solve algorithm are established. In this way, thetracking algorithm has both fast tracking and good anti-noise characteristics under dynamicconditions. With the analysis of the interaction between the dynamic characteristics ofsampling signal and decaying DC component, the dynamic fundamental wave filter algorithm is established. It can estimate the dynamic characteristics of the current and voltage phasesdecaying DC component. Based on the improved frequency tracking algorithm of DFT, thecombination of the adaptive frequency tracking model and DC component tracking model cancalculate accurate PMU measurements.
(2) In order to establish the optimization location method of a regional grid PMUmonitoring which is based on node voltage weak state analysis index and its algorithm, thenonlinear programming model and assessment method for the voltage stability critical pointand the weakness indicator of the node are studied. With electric power system grid structureparameters in a particular area, a research for the nonlinear function relations is accomplishedwhich include the modules in grid and the dynamic process of load and voltages of nodes,considering that the voltage instability starts from local diffusion to the collapse of the whole.The model of the relationships between the process of system approach voltage instabilitycritical state and the voltage weakness status indicators is studied according to the regionalgrid numerical simulation data. A detection model is built up to accurately identify theregional grid weak nodes in accordance with the degree of node voltage weakness. The datacomes from the sizes of sensitivity indicators and sensitivity change rate indicators, whichcharacterize the change speed of all nodes sensitivities. Therefore, the optimizationconfiguration method of the not completely observable PMU monitoring points is establishedon the basis of the monitor at voltage weak areas in order to insure the grid observable andstability of the voltage.
(3) Based on synchronized pharos measurements and the modules and algorithms of nodevoltage stability rapid judgment, the nonlinear time series prediction modules and algorithmsof voltage stability trajectory are studied. The parameters of real time grid equivalent model,aimed at the data of power grid local node synchronous pharos measurement, are calculated byinvertible decoupling and impedance modulus algorithms with synchronous voltage andcurrent pharos of nodes and related loads, and by which the whole system could be equivalentto a two nodes grid. The Thevenin equivalent model which includes load nodes andimpedance model limit algorithms is used to deduce a synchronous grid voltage stability indexfor rapid judgment of grid voltage stability. In view of the grid voltage and current real-timemonitoring data, the grid dynamic voltage nonlinear time series analysis method is studied toreconstruct phase point in phase space trajectory prediction model and to determine the phase space and the parameters of the voltage stability of nonlinear system. Thus, the voltagestability global forecast model can be set up by using the nonlinear mapping of support vectormachine model for dynamic voltage in the global nonlinear time series prediction. A nonlinearregression method of nonlinear time sequence of the phase trajectory in phase space isestablished to predict the dynamic voltage stability of power grid trajectory.
(4) In accordance of the requirements of Wide Area Measure System (WAMS) and theactual power grid operating conditions, establishment of regional power grid voltage stabilitycriterion system is studied, and software for regional power grid voltage stability onlinedetection and prediction is developed. On the basis of an online detection model of regionalpower grid single node voltage stability, multiple node voltage stability online identificationmodels and nonlinear time series prediction model of grid voltage stability, a mathematicalmodel and an algorithm for voltage stability criterion are established. Based on the DSP,Visual C++and Oracle database technologies, a regional grid voltage stability detectionapplication system platform is developed with the improved frequency tracking dataacquisition algorithm and mathematical model of voltage stability criterion system as the core.It can accomplish the online detection and short-term prediction of regional grid voltagestability and its relevant parameters with real-time measurements of the grid nodes. It can alsobe used for providing voltage stability criterion and forecast data in real time to the gridoperation management departments as reference and guidance to make adjustments to theelectric power system voltage stability control strategies.
(5) According to the technological standard in “Automatic Voltage Control TechnicalSpecification of The Grid (Q/GDW747-2012)” of State Grid Corporation of China, theregional grid voltage stability criterion system is applied to the grid operation management,combined with the actual situation of Liaoning grid voltage stability controlling system. Theregional grid voltage stability detection application system is successfully put into practice at a500kV substation in June2012. The hardware and software of system are stable and the resultsof online voltage stability criterion and warning in actual operation are reasonable andacceptable. As a conclusion, the regional grid voltage stability judging system and its onlinevoltage stability identification parameters and prediction results can meet the practicalengineering requirements of regional power grid voltage stability control.
本文的主要研究内容有：
（1）针对DFT算法在采样信号频率变化时因频率泄漏及频率失配造成的测量误差，研究PMU（Phasor Measuring Unit，同步相量测量单元）同步采集各相电压、电流信号噪声含量及其动态特性在线估计模型，采用动态特性方差和噪声方差两个参数对采样系统实时状态进行量化，并在此基础上建立频率自适应模型及其求解算法，使频率跟踪算法在动态条件下具有快速的跟踪特性和有较好的抗噪特性；研究采样信号动态特性和衰减直流分量之间相互作用关系，建立基波信号直流分量跟踪模型及算法，进而研究建立动态基波滤波算法，实现电流、电压相量衰减直流分量动态特性估计，将自适应频率跟踪模型与直流分量跟踪模型结合；研究建立基于DFT的改进频率跟踪算法，得到精确的同步相量测量结果。
（2）研究电网节点电压稳定临界点及其薄弱性指标的非线性规划模型与评估方法，建立识别节点电压薄弱状态的解析指标及其求解算法，并在此基础上研究建立区域电网PMU监测点优化配置方法。针对电压失稳先局部扩散后全局崩溃的特性，研究特定区域电力系统电网结构参数下，电网各元件和负荷的动态过程与电网各节点电压间非线性作用关系。基于区域电网数值仿真数据，研究系统逼近电压失稳临界状态过程与电压薄弱状态指标间关系模型，建立以灵敏度dV i/dQi指标的大小为基础，同时采用表征各节点灵敏度变化快慢的灵敏度变化率指标的电网节点电压薄弱程度判别模型，实现区域电网薄弱节点准确识别。在此基础上，针对电网状态可观测性和电压稳定性两方面因素，研究建立基于电压薄弱区域监视的非完全可观测PMU监测点优化配置方法。
（3）研究基于同步相量测量数据的节点电压快速在线判别模型及求解算法，研究电压稳定轨迹的非线性时间序列预测模型及求解方法。针对同步测量的电网局部节点相量测量数据，采用节点及与其相关联的负荷节点的同步电压、电流相量，通过阻抗模和P Q解耦算法得到电网实时等值模型参数，并在此基础上将整个系统等值为一简单的两节点系统，研究建立包含负荷节点的戴维南等值模型，并根据等值模型阻抗模极限值推导出电网电压稳定在线判别指标，对电网电压水平做出快速判别。针对电网电压、电流实时监测数据，研究电网动态电压非线性时间序列分析方法，并重构出电压稳定非线性系统相空间，对重构相空间中相点变化轨迹的预测模型及模型参数进行确定，建立电压稳定的全局预测模型，采用支持向量机模型对动态电压非线性时间序列全局预测模型中非线性映射进行求解，建立非线性时间序列相空间中相轨迹的非线性回归求解方法，实现电网动态电压稳定轨迹的预测。
（4）结合电网广域测量系统（Wide Area Measurement System，WAMS）要求及实际电网运行条件，研究建立区域电网电压稳定判别系统，完成了区域电网电压稳定在线判别与预测应用软件系统开发。在研究建立了区域电网单一节点电压稳定在线判别模型、多节点电压稳定在线辨识模型和电网电压稳定非线性时间序列预测模型的基础上，建立电压稳定判别系统数学模型及算法，以开发改进频率跟踪数据采集算法和电压稳定判别系统数学模型为核心，DSP技术、Visual C++技术和Oracle数据库技术为基础的区域电网电压稳定判别应用系统平台，实现根据电网节点实时监测数据对区域电网电压稳定状态及其相关参数做出在线判别及中短期预测，为电网运行管理部门提供电压稳定性实时判别及预测预报数据，作为电力系统电压稳定控制策略调整的参考和指导。
（5）按照国家电网公司“电网自动电压控制技术规范（Q/GDW747-2012）”技术要求，结合辽宁电网电压稳定控制的实际情况，将区域电网电压稳定判别系统应用于电网实际运行管理系统当中。本文研究开发的区域电网电压稳定判别应用系统，于2012年6月在500kV变电站成功投入运行，实际运行中，系统硬件和软件运行性能稳定，电压稳定在线判别和预测预警结果合理。本文研究建立的区域电网电压稳定判别系统及其电压稳定性在线判别参数和预测结果能够满足电网电压稳定控制工作的实际工程要求。
The operating point of power system draws nearer to its stability limit under severalconditions, such as the rapid development of the power industry in our country, the widerdomain large-scale grid interconnection, the deepening of the electricity market-orientedreforms, and the input of the intermittent renewable energy sources. Moreover, naturaldisasters have repeatedly caused accidents of regional power grid voltage collapse, whichmake voltage stability problem of power system more prominent than ever before. Generally,if the bus voltage angle, power system frequency and the amplitude of voltage are relativelystable, the system protection and warning devices cannot predict or act in advance when thevoltage instability of the power grid happens. As a result, how to accurately online identifyand predict the regional power grid voltage stability on the complex operation conditions hasbecame one of the great challenges that the power dispatching departments are faced with.PMU technology provides conditions for the analysis and prediction of voltage stabilitydynamics, which are based on wide area simultaneous measurement data of the regional powergrid. On the basis of the study of synchronous phasor measurement algorithm, the model ofthe analysis and prediction of voltage stability dynamic characteristics are established in thispaper. Thus, online identification and prediction system of the regional power grid voltagestability is developed. It provides guidance for the voltage stability control to the powersystem operation management department.
The main contents are as follows：
(1)The DFT algorithm causes the measurement errors due to the frequency leakage andfrequency mismatch when the frequency of the sampling signals changes. In this study, anonline model is developed which is using PMU to synchronously collect the noise content anddynamic characteristics of each phase voltage and current signal. It uses dynamiccharacteristics variance and noise variance to quantify the sampling system real-time state.Therefore, frequency adaptive model and solve algorithm are established. In this way, thetracking algorithm has both fast tracking and good anti-noise characteristics under dynamicconditions. With the analysis of the interaction between the dynamic characteristics ofsampling signal and decaying DC component, the dynamic fundamental wave filter algorithm is established. It can estimate the dynamic characteristics of the current and voltage phasesdecaying DC component. Based on the improved frequency tracking algorithm of DFT, thecombination of the adaptive frequency tracking model and DC component tracking model cancalculate accurate PMU measurements.
(2) In order to establish the optimization location method of a regional grid PMUmonitoring which is based on node voltage weak state analysis index and its algorithm, thenonlinear programming model and assessment method for the voltage stability critical pointand the weakness indicator of the node are studied. With electric power system grid structureparameters in a particular area, a research for the nonlinear function relations is accomplishedwhich include the modules in grid and the dynamic process of load and voltages of nodes,considering that the voltage instability starts from local diffusion to the collapse of the whole.The model of the relationships between the process of system approach voltage instabilitycritical state and the voltage weakness status indicators is studied according to the regionalgrid numerical simulation data. A detection model is built up to accurately identify theregional grid weak nodes in accordance with the degree of node voltage weakness. The datacomes from the sizes of sensitivity indicators and sensitivity change rate indicators, whichcharacterize the change speed of all nodes sensitivities. Therefore, the optimizationconfiguration method of the not completely observable PMU monitoring points is establishedon the basis of the monitor at voltage weak areas in order to insure the grid observable andstability of the voltage.
(3) Based on synchronized pharos measurements and the modules and algorithms of nodevoltage stability rapid judgment, the nonlinear time series prediction modules and algorithmsof voltage stability trajectory are studied. The parameters of real time grid equivalent model,aimed at the data of power grid local node synchronous pharos measurement, are calculated byinvertible decoupling and impedance modulus algorithms with synchronous voltage andcurrent pharos of nodes and related loads, and by which the whole system could be equivalentto a two nodes grid. The Thevenin equivalent model which includes load nodes andimpedance model limit algorithms is used to deduce a synchronous grid voltage stability indexfor rapid judgment of grid voltage stability. In view of the grid voltage and current real-timemonitoring data, the grid dynamic voltage nonlinear time series analysis method is studied toreconstruct phase point in phase space trajectory prediction model and to determine the phase space and the parameters of the voltage stability of nonlinear system. Thus, the voltagestability global forecast model can be set up by using the nonlinear mapping of support vectormachine model for dynamic voltage in the global nonlinear time series prediction. A nonlinearregression method of nonlinear time sequence of the phase trajectory in phase space isestablished to predict the dynamic voltage stability of power grid trajectory.
(4) In accordance of the requirements of Wide Area Measure System (WAMS) and theactual power grid operating conditions, establishment of regional power grid voltage stabilitycriterion system is studied, and software for regional power grid voltage stability onlinedetection and prediction is developed. On the basis of an online detection model of regionalpower grid single node voltage stability, multiple node voltage stability online identificationmodels and nonlinear time series prediction model of grid voltage stability, a mathematicalmodel and an algorithm for voltage stability criterion are established. Based on the DSP,Visual C++and Oracle database technologies, a regional grid voltage stability detectionapplication system platform is developed with the improved frequency tracking dataacquisition algorithm and mathematical model of voltage stability criterion system as the core.It can accomplish the online detection and short-term prediction of regional grid voltagestability and its relevant parameters with real-time measurements of the grid nodes. It can alsobe used for providing voltage stability criterion and forecast data in real time to the gridoperation management departments as reference and guidance to make adjustments to theelectric power system voltage stability control strategies.
(5) According to the technological standard in “Automatic Voltage Control TechnicalSpecification of The Grid (Q/GDW747-2012)” of State Grid Corporation of China, theregional grid voltage stability criterion system is applied to the grid operation management,combined with the actual situation of Liaoning grid voltage stability controlling system. Theregional grid voltage stability detection application system is successfully put into practice at a500kV substation in June2012. The hardware and software of system are stable and the resultsof online voltage stability criterion and warning in actual operation are reasonable andacceptable. As a conclusion, the regional grid voltage stability judging system and its onlinevoltage stability identification parameters and prediction results can meet the practicalengineering requirements of regional power grid voltage stability control.
引文
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