中国煤炭产量峰值与煤炭资源可持续利用问题研究
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摘要
能源是人类社会赖以生存和发展的重要物质基础。长期稳定的能源供应,是一国经济发展、社会稳定和国家安全的重要保证。我国是世界上能源消费大国之一,改革开放以来,伴随着我国社会经济的快速发展,城市化的加速以及相应的重工业化,对能源的需求也处于一个快速增长的阶段。自20世纪90年代初期开始,我国能源开始供不应求,此后能源供应的缺口呈现逐年扩大的趋势。与此同时,能源区域分布不均衡、能源利用率低下等问题也加剧了能源供应的紧张局势,我国经济的高速发展面临着动力不足的压力。
我国的能源主要包括煤炭、石油、天然气、水能、风能、核能等,而煤炭作为我国长期依赖的第一能源,在国民经济发展和人民生活中具有难以替代的重要作用。多年来,煤炭在我国一次能源生产和消费结构中的比重始终保持在70%左右,尽管近年来,随着天然气、风能等相对绿色清洁能源日趋广泛的使用,煤炭生产和消费所占比重有所下降,但是截至2012年,我国煤炭消费量占一次能源消费的比重依然高达68.5%。能源资源禀赋的限制决定了在短期内我国以煤炭为主的能源供应和消费格局无法改变。值得注意的是,煤炭资源属于不可再生资源,具有可耗竭性。随着经济增长对煤炭资源的不断消耗,煤炭也将由原先丰富的资源逐渐转变成短缺的资源。另一方面,虽然我国煤炭资源储量相对丰富,但储量的丰富并不意味着就能实现资源的有效供给,我国的煤炭资源供给还受到一系列相关制约因素的影响,如煤炭资源赋存条件、生态环境以及运输条件的约束等,正是由于这些制约因素的存在,我国煤炭产量可能将面临一个所谓的“产量峰值”。若这一问题存在的话,既会阻碍我国国民经济的健康发展,同时也会给我国的能源安全带来威胁。鉴于此,本文综合运用多种学科的理论基础知识,并借鉴现有的研究成果,从煤炭产需两个角度进行思考,对我国煤炭产量峰值以及煤炭资源可持续利用问题进行了深入研究。全文共分为九章,具体研究内容如下：
第一章：导论部分。本章主要阐述了论文的选题背景、研究目的和意义,在综述当前国内外关于煤炭产量峰值、煤炭消费与经济增长关系、煤炭需求预测以及煤炭可持续利用等问题的研究现状基础上,提炼出本文的主要研究内容和研究框架并确定相应的研究方法,最后提出本论文的主要创新点和不足之处。
第二章：相关理论基础。本章分别对增长极限理论、化石能源峰值理论、可持续发展理论、煤炭资源的可持续利用理论、库兹涅茨曲线理论以及生态足迹理论等相关理论基础进行了扩展性的分析和概括。
第三章,中国能源与煤炭供需形势研究。本章从总体上分析了中国能源以及煤炭资源的生产和消费状况,并深入分析了中国能源和煤炭资源生产与消费现状与特征。首先对中国能源生产与消费总体形势进行了分析,包括中国能源资源禀赋和特点、能源生产和消费总量、能源供求形势以及能源生产和消费结构状况；其次,对中国的煤炭生产与消费总体形势进行了分析,包括中国煤炭生产与消费总量、煤炭供求形势、煤炭进出口状况、煤炭运输状况以及煤炭价格状况。
第四章：中国能源消费、煤炭消费与经济增长关系研究。本章首先分析了中国能源消费弹性系数、能源消费强度的历史变化趋势,并通过Johasen协整检验法和Granger因果检验法研究了中国能源消费与经济增长间的协整关系与因果关系,结果发现全社会能源消费与经济增长间存在稳定的长期均衡关系,在短期内存在由能源消费到经济增长的单向因果关系；接着分析了中国煤炭消费弹性系数、煤炭消费强度的历史变化趋势,在此基础上,对中国煤炭消费与经济增长间的协整关系与因果关系进行了研究,结果发现全社会煤炭消费与经济增长间存在稳定的长期均衡关系,在短期内存在由煤炭消费到经济增长的单向因果关系。
第五章：中国煤炭消费的环境影响研究。本章首先建立了煤炭消费的生态足迹模型对中国煤炭消费的生态可持续性问题进行了研究,结果发现中国煤炭资源使用具有外部负效应,煤炭资源可持续发展的环境承载力约束日益严峻。接着对中国碳排放强度的影响因素进行了研究。结果发现,经济发展水平、煤炭消费强度、能源消费结构、产业结构以及工业结构对中国碳排放强度均有显著影响,其中煤炭消费强度因素具有最为明显的碳减排作用；产业结构、能源消费结构以及工业结构对中国碳排放强度的影响相对较小；经济发展水平与碳排放强度之间存在明显的“倒N型”曲线关系,说明经济发展方式的转变有助于中国碳减排目标的实现。
第六章：中国工业化、城市化进程中的煤炭需求中长期预测研究。本章采用库兹涅茨曲线模型的分析方法,建立了面板数据非线性模型对中国煤炭需求进行了中长期预测,结果表明中国煤炭需求与经济增长之间的库兹涅茨曲线特征明显,煤炭消费的库兹涅茨“倒U型”曲线假说在我国成立；工业化、城市化进程推动了中国煤炭需求的快速增长。在低、中、高三种不同经济增长情境下,2020年中国煤炭消费总量将达到48亿吨-50亿吨左右。
第七章：中国煤炭产量峰值预测研究。本章首先对煤炭产量峰值理论进行了阐述,接着同时采用线性回归模型与Logistic曲线模型对中国煤炭产量峰值进行了预测,结果发现线性回归模型由于存在的固有缺陷,会导致预测值与实际值偏差较大,是不准确的,因此主要采用Logistic曲线模型的预测结果,即在现有资源和技术条件下,中国煤炭产量将在2018年左右达到峰值,峰值产量为49.66亿吨,之后产量将逐渐下降。
第八章：中国煤炭可持续利用的实施路径与政策建议。本章认为实现煤炭资源的可持续利用,需要建立煤炭供求平衡的长效调控机制。这一调控机制包括对国际煤炭市场的调控和对国内煤炭供需总量的调控。对国际煤炭市场的调控包括鼓励进口,充分利用国外煤炭资源和加快走出去的步伐,合理开发国外煤炭资源两个方面。对国内煤炭供需总量的调控主要是从煤炭消费端和供给端两个方面来实现,从煤炭消费端实现对煤炭需求的总量控制,可以分为直接调控和间接调控,直接调控是根据直接确定合理的煤炭消费总量控制目标,控制煤炭需求总量,而间接调控主要就从调整产业结构、改善能源结构以及提高能源利用率等方面入手,减少对煤炭资源的需求；从煤炭供给端实现对煤炭产量的总量控制,通过加大对煤炭生产的宏观调控,提前布局总量控制的各项保障工作,确保控制煤炭生产总量后国内煤炭的有效供给以及满足经济发展合理的煤炭需求。
第九章：结论及展望。对论文的主要结论和创新点进行了总结,同时指出了论文进一步研究和努力的方向。
本文主要创新点：
创新点1：关于煤炭资源的可持续利用问题研究目前在我国国内尚未形成一个完整、系统的经济学研究体系。而作为本论文研究对象的煤炭资源在我国经济与社会可持续发展过程中具有非常特殊的双重作用。一方面,本论文肯定了煤炭资源对我国经济发展的基础作用；另一方面,本论文又从生态足迹原理研究了我国煤炭资源生态可持续利用问题,结果发现在1988年到2011年间我国煤炭资源使用的生态承载力明显小于生态足迹,煤炭资源使用具有外部负效应,煤炭资源可持续发展的环境承载力约束日益严峻。
创新点2：将环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)理论引入经济发展与煤炭消费关系的研究领域,并参照环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)模型原理,建立经济发展与煤炭消费的非线性面板数据的库兹涅茨曲线模型,同时将工业化、城市化作为两个重要控制变量纳入模型中进行综合考虑,并对工业化、城市化进程中我国中长期煤炭需求进行了预测,得到结论我国煤炭消费的库兹涅茨“倒U型”曲线假说在我国成立；工业化、城市化进程推动了煤炭需求的快速增长,在低、中、高三种不同经济增长情境下,2020年我国煤炭消费总量将达到48亿吨-50亿吨左右。采用环境库兹涅茨假说的原理来研究煤炭问题,目前在我国国内还很少。
创新点3：中国煤炭产量峰值问题研究。关于煤炭产量峰值的分析国外研究的较多,而国内相关研究较少,本论文通过Logistic曲线增长模型对中国以及山西、陕西和内蒙古三个地区的煤炭产量峰值进行了研究。以中国为例,到2018年,如果依然按照目前的能源消费结构和经济发展速度消耗煤炭的话,随着我国煤炭储量消耗殆尽,我国将面临着完全依赖煤炭进口来满足自身经济发展需求的境地,这一方面对我国的自身发展是一个非常大的约束,另一方面也将对国际煤炭市场造成巨大的压力。煤炭产量峰值预测研究对我国经济的可持续发展以及煤炭资源的可持续利用有着重大意义。
Energy is the motive force of development of economic, is the physical foundation of modern civilization. Long term stable supply of energy is an important guarantee of economic development,social stability and national security for country. China is a rich country of energy consumption, since reform and openning-up, As China's economic development and urbanization, the heavy chemical industry developed rapidly, China has entered a rapidly growing stage of energy consumption. The demand for Energy resources in China far exceeds the supply since the early1990's, The gap of energy supply and demand generally appears the trend of expansion year by year. Meanwhile, the regional distribution of the energy imbalance problems such as low energy utilization aggravated the tension in the energy supply, resulting in the rapid development of economy in our country is faced with steam pressure.
China's energy mainly consists of coal, oil, natural gas, hydro energy, wind energy, nuclear energy and so on, which account for different proportions in China's energy production and consumption structure. As a resource with the largest number in China, coal has played an irreplaceable important role in the national economic development and people's lives. For many years, coal has always remained a proportion of about70%in China's primary energy production and consumption structure. With the wide popularity of natural gas, wind energy and other relatively green and clean energies in recent years, although the proportion of coal production and consumption has declined, China's coal consumption has still reached up to68.5%of the primary energy consumption by2012. Owing to the energy resource limit, China's coal-based energy supply and consumption pattern cannot be changed within a short term. It is noted that coal is a non-renewable and exhaustible resource. With the continuous consumption of coal resources during the process of economic growth, coal has gradually transformed from the original rich resource into a scarce resource. On the other hand, though China has a relatively abundant reserve of coal resources, it does not mean the effective supply of resources can be achieved. China's coal resource supply is also affected by many related constraints, such as the coal resources' occurrence conditions, ecological conditions, transportation conditions, etc. China's coal production is likely to face a so-called peak production exactly because of these constraints. The problem not only hinders the healthy development of China's national economy, but also poses a threat to China's future energy security. Therefore, this paper applies the multi-disciplinary theories comprehensively, learns from the existing research results, reflects from the perspective of coal production and demands, and makes an in-depth study of China's coal production peak and sustainable utilization issue of coal resources. This paper consists of nine chapters, and the specific contents are as follows:
Chapter1:Introduction. This chapter mainly outlines the background、 research purposes and significance, on the basis of domestic and oversea research on the coal production peak、the relationship between the economic growth and coal consumption coal demand forecast and sustainable utilization of coal resources, this chapter extracts the main rearch content、research framework and determines the corresponding research methods of this thesis, Finally, it points out the innovation and limitation of this thesis.
Chapter2:Relative theory foundation. This chapter respectively analyzes the theory of limit to growth、fossil energy production peak、sustainable development sustainable utilization for coal resources、Kuznets curve theory and ecological footprint theory.
Chapter3:Analysis of the supply and demand for China's energy and coal resources. First this chapter analyzes the general situation of the supply and demand for China's energy, including our country energy resources endowment and characteristics, energy supply and demand situation as well as the structure of energy prodution and consumption. Secondly, this chapter analyzes the general situation of the supply and demand for China's coal resources, including our country coal supply and demand situation、coal import and export、coal transportation and the coal price conditions.
Chapter4:Research on relationship between energy consumption、coal consumption and economic growth of China. First this chapter analyzes the energy resource consumption elasticity coefficient as well as energy intensity of China, and analyzes the causality of energy consumption and economic growth. And then, this chapter analyzes the coal resource consumption elasticity coefficient as well as coal consumption intensity of China, and analyzes the causality of coal consumption and economic growth.
Chpter5:Study on the environment impact of China's coal consumption. Fist this chapter set up the ecological footprint model of coal consumption to study the the ecological sustainability of coal resources, the results shows that consumption of use of coal resources in China have external negative effects, the sustainable development of coal resource environmental bearing capacity constraints is becoming more and more serious. And then this chapter analyzes the carbon emission intensity of China based on theory of environmental Kuznets curve. The results show that eoncomic development level、the intensity of carbon consumption、energy consumption structure、industrial structure have a significant impact on China's carbon intensity. The intensity of carbon consumptioin is the most important factor in achieving carbon reduction target; energy consumption structure and industrial structure have a relatively minimal impact on carbon emission intensity; There is an inverted N curve relationship between the economic development and carbon emission intensity, It shows that a shift in economic development patterns is helpful to achieving the carbon reduction target.
Chapter6:Study on medium-and long-term forecast on coal demands in China during the process of industrialization and urbanization. This chapter adoptsthe analysis method of Kuznets curve in this chapter to establish panel data non-linear model and make medium-and long-term forecast for coal demands in China, whose results indicate that the Kuznets features between our coal demands and economic growth is obvious, and inverted U-shape Kuznets curve hypothesis of our coal consumption is true in China; industrialization and urbanization process has promoted the rapid growth of coal demands, our coal consumption will reach4.8billion tons-5billion tons under the low, medium and high speed of economic growth.
Chapter7:Study on China's chinese coal production peak. This chapter describes the coal production peak firstly in this Chapter, then carry out curve fitting of coal production peak using linear return model and Logistic model, finding that due to the inherent defects of linear return model, its forecast value is quite different with actual value, so it is not accurate; thereby we adopt the fitting results of Logistic curve mainly in this article:it will be in the year of2018to reach the coal peak at about4.966billion tons for China under the existing resources and technology conditions, after which production will decline over time.
Chapter8:Implementation way and policy recommendations for sustainable utilization of coal in China. In order to realize the sustainable utilization of coal resources, a long-lasting regulatory mechanism of balanced coal supply and demands should be established. The regulatory mechanism includes the regulation and control over international markets as well as over total amount of domestic coal supply and demands. The regulation and control over international markets cover two aspects, including encouraging imports, making full use of foreign coal resources and accelerating the pace of going-out and exploring the foreign coal resources rationally. The regulation and control over the total amount of domestic coal supply and demands can be achieved from two aspects:one is coal consumption end, which can be divided into direct regulation and control that is to control the target by directly determining the reasonable coal consumption so as to control the total consumption of coal reasonable and indirect regulation and control that is to adjust industry structure, improve energy structure and improve energy utilization, etc. to reduce the demands for coal resources; another is supply end, which is to control the total volume of coal production by enhancing the macro-control over the coal production, arranging the security measurement for total amount control in advance so as to ensure effective supply of domestic coal supply after controlling the total coal production and meet reasonable demand of economic development.
Chapter9:Conclusions and prospects. This chapter discusses the main contribution of our research work and provides some possible future extensions.
.The main innovations of this dissertation are as follows:
First, the research on sustainable use of coal resources has not yet formed a complete research system of economics at present in our country. As the research object of this paper, coal resources have a very special dual role in sustainable economic and social development process in our country. On the one hand, the paper affirms the fundamental role of coal resources in China's economic development; on the other hand, this paper studies the sustainable utilization of coal resources from the ecological footprint theory. And it is found that the use of ecological carrying capacity is significantly less than the ecological footprint from1988to2011, the use of coal resources has external negative effects, the sustainable development of coal resource environmental bearing capacity constraints is becoming more and more serious.
Second, the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory is introduced into the study of relationship between economic development and the field of coal consumption, and with reference to the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model principle, set up the nonlinear kuznets curve model of economic development and the coal consumption with panel data, while as two important control variables, the industrialization and urbanization is included into the model for comprehensive consideration. And forecast the coal demand in the process of industrialization and urbanization in the medium and long term. Finally we come to a conclusion that China's coal consumption Kuznets inverted U-shaped curve hypothesis is founded in our country; industrialization and urbanization promote the rapid growth of coal demand at low medium and high three kinds of different economic growth situation, China's coal consumption will reach4.8billion tons-5billion tons in2020. To study the coal problem with the principle of environmental Kuznets hypothesis is rare at present in our country.
Third, the research on China's coal production peak. Currently, although much research on the coal production peak has been done in abroad, but only a fews work has been done in our country. The thesis has gived a lot of research and analyze to the coal production peak of China、Shaanxi province、Shanxi province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region by the logistic curve model. In China, for example:If the economy is still growing rapidly and the energy consumption structure remain constant, with the decreasing of coal resources, our Country will be faced a situation which we must completely depend on the coal import to meet the demand of its bounding economy by2018. This issue, on one hand, which will be a big constraint of China's economic development, on the other hand, it will also cause great pressure to the international coal market. The research of coal production peak prediction has important significance for economic sustainable development and coal resources sustainable utilization in China.
我国的能源主要包括煤炭、石油、天然气、水能、风能、核能等,而煤炭作为我国长期依赖的第一能源,在国民经济发展和人民生活中具有难以替代的重要作用。多年来,煤炭在我国一次能源生产和消费结构中的比重始终保持在70%左右,尽管近年来,随着天然气、风能等相对绿色清洁能源日趋广泛的使用,煤炭生产和消费所占比重有所下降,但是截至2012年,我国煤炭消费量占一次能源消费的比重依然高达68.5%。能源资源禀赋的限制决定了在短期内我国以煤炭为主的能源供应和消费格局无法改变。值得注意的是,煤炭资源属于不可再生资源,具有可耗竭性。随着经济增长对煤炭资源的不断消耗,煤炭也将由原先丰富的资源逐渐转变成短缺的资源。另一方面,虽然我国煤炭资源储量相对丰富,但储量的丰富并不意味着就能实现资源的有效供给,我国的煤炭资源供给还受到一系列相关制约因素的影响,如煤炭资源赋存条件、生态环境以及运输条件的约束等,正是由于这些制约因素的存在,我国煤炭产量可能将面临一个所谓的“产量峰值”。若这一问题存在的话,既会阻碍我国国民经济的健康发展,同时也会给我国的能源安全带来威胁。鉴于此,本文综合运用多种学科的理论基础知识,并借鉴现有的研究成果,从煤炭产需两个角度进行思考,对我国煤炭产量峰值以及煤炭资源可持续利用问题进行了深入研究。全文共分为九章,具体研究内容如下：
第一章：导论部分。本章主要阐述了论文的选题背景、研究目的和意义,在综述当前国内外关于煤炭产量峰值、煤炭消费与经济增长关系、煤炭需求预测以及煤炭可持续利用等问题的研究现状基础上,提炼出本文的主要研究内容和研究框架并确定相应的研究方法,最后提出本论文的主要创新点和不足之处。
第二章：相关理论基础。本章分别对增长极限理论、化石能源峰值理论、可持续发展理论、煤炭资源的可持续利用理论、库兹涅茨曲线理论以及生态足迹理论等相关理论基础进行了扩展性的分析和概括。
第三章,中国能源与煤炭供需形势研究。本章从总体上分析了中国能源以及煤炭资源的生产和消费状况,并深入分析了中国能源和煤炭资源生产与消费现状与特征。首先对中国能源生产与消费总体形势进行了分析,包括中国能源资源禀赋和特点、能源生产和消费总量、能源供求形势以及能源生产和消费结构状况；其次,对中国的煤炭生产与消费总体形势进行了分析,包括中国煤炭生产与消费总量、煤炭供求形势、煤炭进出口状况、煤炭运输状况以及煤炭价格状况。
第四章：中国能源消费、煤炭消费与经济增长关系研究。本章首先分析了中国能源消费弹性系数、能源消费强度的历史变化趋势,并通过Johasen协整检验法和Granger因果检验法研究了中国能源消费与经济增长间的协整关系与因果关系,结果发现全社会能源消费与经济增长间存在稳定的长期均衡关系,在短期内存在由能源消费到经济增长的单向因果关系；接着分析了中国煤炭消费弹性系数、煤炭消费强度的历史变化趋势,在此基础上,对中国煤炭消费与经济增长间的协整关系与因果关系进行了研究,结果发现全社会煤炭消费与经济增长间存在稳定的长期均衡关系,在短期内存在由煤炭消费到经济增长的单向因果关系。
第五章：中国煤炭消费的环境影响研究。本章首先建立了煤炭消费的生态足迹模型对中国煤炭消费的生态可持续性问题进行了研究,结果发现中国煤炭资源使用具有外部负效应,煤炭资源可持续发展的环境承载力约束日益严峻。接着对中国碳排放强度的影响因素进行了研究。结果发现,经济发展水平、煤炭消费强度、能源消费结构、产业结构以及工业结构对中国碳排放强度均有显著影响,其中煤炭消费强度因素具有最为明显的碳减排作用；产业结构、能源消费结构以及工业结构对中国碳排放强度的影响相对较小；经济发展水平与碳排放强度之间存在明显的“倒N型”曲线关系,说明经济发展方式的转变有助于中国碳减排目标的实现。
第六章：中国工业化、城市化进程中的煤炭需求中长期预测研究。本章采用库兹涅茨曲线模型的分析方法,建立了面板数据非线性模型对中国煤炭需求进行了中长期预测,结果表明中国煤炭需求与经济增长之间的库兹涅茨曲线特征明显,煤炭消费的库兹涅茨“倒U型”曲线假说在我国成立；工业化、城市化进程推动了中国煤炭需求的快速增长。在低、中、高三种不同经济增长情境下,2020年中国煤炭消费总量将达到48亿吨-50亿吨左右。
第七章：中国煤炭产量峰值预测研究。本章首先对煤炭产量峰值理论进行了阐述,接着同时采用线性回归模型与Logistic曲线模型对中国煤炭产量峰值进行了预测,结果发现线性回归模型由于存在的固有缺陷,会导致预测值与实际值偏差较大,是不准确的,因此主要采用Logistic曲线模型的预测结果,即在现有资源和技术条件下,中国煤炭产量将在2018年左右达到峰值,峰值产量为49.66亿吨,之后产量将逐渐下降。
第八章：中国煤炭可持续利用的实施路径与政策建议。本章认为实现煤炭资源的可持续利用,需要建立煤炭供求平衡的长效调控机制。这一调控机制包括对国际煤炭市场的调控和对国内煤炭供需总量的调控。对国际煤炭市场的调控包括鼓励进口,充分利用国外煤炭资源和加快走出去的步伐,合理开发国外煤炭资源两个方面。对国内煤炭供需总量的调控主要是从煤炭消费端和供给端两个方面来实现,从煤炭消费端实现对煤炭需求的总量控制,可以分为直接调控和间接调控,直接调控是根据直接确定合理的煤炭消费总量控制目标,控制煤炭需求总量,而间接调控主要就从调整产业结构、改善能源结构以及提高能源利用率等方面入手,减少对煤炭资源的需求；从煤炭供给端实现对煤炭产量的总量控制,通过加大对煤炭生产的宏观调控,提前布局总量控制的各项保障工作,确保控制煤炭生产总量后国内煤炭的有效供给以及满足经济发展合理的煤炭需求。
第九章：结论及展望。对论文的主要结论和创新点进行了总结,同时指出了论文进一步研究和努力的方向。
本文主要创新点：
创新点1：关于煤炭资源的可持续利用问题研究目前在我国国内尚未形成一个完整、系统的经济学研究体系。而作为本论文研究对象的煤炭资源在我国经济与社会可持续发展过程中具有非常特殊的双重作用。一方面,本论文肯定了煤炭资源对我国经济发展的基础作用；另一方面,本论文又从生态足迹原理研究了我国煤炭资源生态可持续利用问题,结果发现在1988年到2011年间我国煤炭资源使用的生态承载力明显小于生态足迹,煤炭资源使用具有外部负效应,煤炭资源可持续发展的环境承载力约束日益严峻。
创新点2：将环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)理论引入经济发展与煤炭消费关系的研究领域,并参照环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)模型原理,建立经济发展与煤炭消费的非线性面板数据的库兹涅茨曲线模型,同时将工业化、城市化作为两个重要控制变量纳入模型中进行综合考虑,并对工业化、城市化进程中我国中长期煤炭需求进行了预测,得到结论我国煤炭消费的库兹涅茨“倒U型”曲线假说在我国成立；工业化、城市化进程推动了煤炭需求的快速增长,在低、中、高三种不同经济增长情境下,2020年我国煤炭消费总量将达到48亿吨-50亿吨左右。采用环境库兹涅茨假说的原理来研究煤炭问题,目前在我国国内还很少。
创新点3：中国煤炭产量峰值问题研究。关于煤炭产量峰值的分析国外研究的较多,而国内相关研究较少,本论文通过Logistic曲线增长模型对中国以及山西、陕西和内蒙古三个地区的煤炭产量峰值进行了研究。以中国为例,到2018年,如果依然按照目前的能源消费结构和经济发展速度消耗煤炭的话,随着我国煤炭储量消耗殆尽,我国将面临着完全依赖煤炭进口来满足自身经济发展需求的境地,这一方面对我国的自身发展是一个非常大的约束,另一方面也将对国际煤炭市场造成巨大的压力。煤炭产量峰值预测研究对我国经济的可持续发展以及煤炭资源的可持续利用有着重大意义。
Energy is the motive force of development of economic, is the physical foundation of modern civilization. Long term stable supply of energy is an important guarantee of economic development,social stability and national security for country. China is a rich country of energy consumption, since reform and openning-up, As China's economic development and urbanization, the heavy chemical industry developed rapidly, China has entered a rapidly growing stage of energy consumption. The demand for Energy resources in China far exceeds the supply since the early1990's, The gap of energy supply and demand generally appears the trend of expansion year by year. Meanwhile, the regional distribution of the energy imbalance problems such as low energy utilization aggravated the tension in the energy supply, resulting in the rapid development of economy in our country is faced with steam pressure.
China's energy mainly consists of coal, oil, natural gas, hydro energy, wind energy, nuclear energy and so on, which account for different proportions in China's energy production and consumption structure. As a resource with the largest number in China, coal has played an irreplaceable important role in the national economic development and people's lives. For many years, coal has always remained a proportion of about70%in China's primary energy production and consumption structure. With the wide popularity of natural gas, wind energy and other relatively green and clean energies in recent years, although the proportion of coal production and consumption has declined, China's coal consumption has still reached up to68.5%of the primary energy consumption by2012. Owing to the energy resource limit, China's coal-based energy supply and consumption pattern cannot be changed within a short term. It is noted that coal is a non-renewable and exhaustible resource. With the continuous consumption of coal resources during the process of economic growth, coal has gradually transformed from the original rich resource into a scarce resource. On the other hand, though China has a relatively abundant reserve of coal resources, it does not mean the effective supply of resources can be achieved. China's coal resource supply is also affected by many related constraints, such as the coal resources' occurrence conditions, ecological conditions, transportation conditions, etc. China's coal production is likely to face a so-called peak production exactly because of these constraints. The problem not only hinders the healthy development of China's national economy, but also poses a threat to China's future energy security. Therefore, this paper applies the multi-disciplinary theories comprehensively, learns from the existing research results, reflects from the perspective of coal production and demands, and makes an in-depth study of China's coal production peak and sustainable utilization issue of coal resources. This paper consists of nine chapters, and the specific contents are as follows:
Chapter1:Introduction. This chapter mainly outlines the background、 research purposes and significance, on the basis of domestic and oversea research on the coal production peak、the relationship between the economic growth and coal consumption coal demand forecast and sustainable utilization of coal resources, this chapter extracts the main rearch content、research framework and determines the corresponding research methods of this thesis, Finally, it points out the innovation and limitation of this thesis.
Chapter2:Relative theory foundation. This chapter respectively analyzes the theory of limit to growth、fossil energy production peak、sustainable development sustainable utilization for coal resources、Kuznets curve theory and ecological footprint theory.
Chapter3:Analysis of the supply and demand for China's energy and coal resources. First this chapter analyzes the general situation of the supply and demand for China's energy, including our country energy resources endowment and characteristics, energy supply and demand situation as well as the structure of energy prodution and consumption. Secondly, this chapter analyzes the general situation of the supply and demand for China's coal resources, including our country coal supply and demand situation、coal import and export、coal transportation and the coal price conditions.
Chapter4:Research on relationship between energy consumption、coal consumption and economic growth of China. First this chapter analyzes the energy resource consumption elasticity coefficient as well as energy intensity of China, and analyzes the causality of energy consumption and economic growth. And then, this chapter analyzes the coal resource consumption elasticity coefficient as well as coal consumption intensity of China, and analyzes the causality of coal consumption and economic growth.
Chpter5:Study on the environment impact of China's coal consumption. Fist this chapter set up the ecological footprint model of coal consumption to study the the ecological sustainability of coal resources, the results shows that consumption of use of coal resources in China have external negative effects, the sustainable development of coal resource environmental bearing capacity constraints is becoming more and more serious. And then this chapter analyzes the carbon emission intensity of China based on theory of environmental Kuznets curve. The results show that eoncomic development level、the intensity of carbon consumption、energy consumption structure、industrial structure have a significant impact on China's carbon intensity. The intensity of carbon consumptioin is the most important factor in achieving carbon reduction target; energy consumption structure and industrial structure have a relatively minimal impact on carbon emission intensity; There is an inverted N curve relationship between the economic development and carbon emission intensity, It shows that a shift in economic development patterns is helpful to achieving the carbon reduction target.
Chapter6:Study on medium-and long-term forecast on coal demands in China during the process of industrialization and urbanization. This chapter adoptsthe analysis method of Kuznets curve in this chapter to establish panel data non-linear model and make medium-and long-term forecast for coal demands in China, whose results indicate that the Kuznets features between our coal demands and economic growth is obvious, and inverted U-shape Kuznets curve hypothesis of our coal consumption is true in China; industrialization and urbanization process has promoted the rapid growth of coal demands, our coal consumption will reach4.8billion tons-5billion tons under the low, medium and high speed of economic growth.
Chapter7:Study on China's chinese coal production peak. This chapter describes the coal production peak firstly in this Chapter, then carry out curve fitting of coal production peak using linear return model and Logistic model, finding that due to the inherent defects of linear return model, its forecast value is quite different with actual value, so it is not accurate; thereby we adopt the fitting results of Logistic curve mainly in this article:it will be in the year of2018to reach the coal peak at about4.966billion tons for China under the existing resources and technology conditions, after which production will decline over time.
Chapter8:Implementation way and policy recommendations for sustainable utilization of coal in China. In order to realize the sustainable utilization of coal resources, a long-lasting regulatory mechanism of balanced coal supply and demands should be established. The regulatory mechanism includes the regulation and control over international markets as well as over total amount of domestic coal supply and demands. The regulation and control over international markets cover two aspects, including encouraging imports, making full use of foreign coal resources and accelerating the pace of going-out and exploring the foreign coal resources rationally. The regulation and control over the total amount of domestic coal supply and demands can be achieved from two aspects:one is coal consumption end, which can be divided into direct regulation and control that is to control the target by directly determining the reasonable coal consumption so as to control the total consumption of coal reasonable and indirect regulation and control that is to adjust industry structure, improve energy structure and improve energy utilization, etc. to reduce the demands for coal resources; another is supply end, which is to control the total volume of coal production by enhancing the macro-control over the coal production, arranging the security measurement for total amount control in advance so as to ensure effective supply of domestic coal supply after controlling the total coal production and meet reasonable demand of economic development.
Chapter9:Conclusions and prospects. This chapter discusses the main contribution of our research work and provides some possible future extensions.
.The main innovations of this dissertation are as follows:
First, the research on sustainable use of coal resources has not yet formed a complete research system of economics at present in our country. As the research object of this paper, coal resources have a very special dual role in sustainable economic and social development process in our country. On the one hand, the paper affirms the fundamental role of coal resources in China's economic development; on the other hand, this paper studies the sustainable utilization of coal resources from the ecological footprint theory. And it is found that the use of ecological carrying capacity is significantly less than the ecological footprint from1988to2011, the use of coal resources has external negative effects, the sustainable development of coal resource environmental bearing capacity constraints is becoming more and more serious.
Second, the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory is introduced into the study of relationship between economic development and the field of coal consumption, and with reference to the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model principle, set up the nonlinear kuznets curve model of economic development and the coal consumption with panel data, while as two important control variables, the industrialization and urbanization is included into the model for comprehensive consideration. And forecast the coal demand in the process of industrialization and urbanization in the medium and long term. Finally we come to a conclusion that China's coal consumption Kuznets inverted U-shaped curve hypothesis is founded in our country; industrialization and urbanization promote the rapid growth of coal demand at low medium and high three kinds of different economic growth situation, China's coal consumption will reach4.8billion tons-5billion tons in2020. To study the coal problem with the principle of environmental Kuznets hypothesis is rare at present in our country.
Third, the research on China's coal production peak. Currently, although much research on the coal production peak has been done in abroad, but only a fews work has been done in our country. The thesis has gived a lot of research and analyze to the coal production peak of China、Shaanxi province、Shanxi province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region by the logistic curve model. In China, for example:If the economy is still growing rapidly and the energy consumption structure remain constant, with the decreasing of coal resources, our Country will be faced a situation which we must completely depend on the coal import to meet the demand of its bounding economy by2018. This issue, on one hand, which will be a big constraint of China's economic development, on the other hand, it will also cause great pressure to the international coal market. The research of coal production peak prediction has important significance for economic sustainable development and coal resources sustainable utilization in China.
引文
① 数据来源：新华网(http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2012-06/25/c_123325816.htm)
① 数据来源：中国经济与社会发展统计数据库。
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① 席建超、葛全胜、成升魁,2004：旅游消费生态占用初探一以北京市海外入境旅游者为例[J],自然资源学报,pp224-229。
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① 数据来源：《BP世界能源统计报告(2013)》。
should China start cutting its emissions?”, (http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/7910)。
① 数据来自新华网,(http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2013-02/22/c_114771980.htm)
② 数据来自CECI(中国经济数据库)。
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① 数据来自United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision:Highlights. New York,2010.
① 同济大学建筑与城市规划学院院长吴志强认为,在未来30年里,我国的城市化水平还有较大提升空间,到2040年,我国城市化水平将达到80%,进入成熟的现代化国家行列,与世界发达国家共同构成世界第一团队(来源于：新华每日电讯头版新闻,2010年6月9日)；中国社科院城市与竞争力研究中心主任倪鹏飞则认为发达国家的城市化率大都在75%以上,中国实现75%的城市化目标应该在2040年左右(来源于：时代周报,2012年第78期)。
② 李善同,2010：“十二五”时期至2030年我国经济增长前景展望[J],经济研究参考,pp3-27。
① 数据来源于：搜狐网：中煤协预测2020年中国煤炭消费量将达约48亿吨。(http://news.sohu.com/20131124/n390691958.shtml)。
② 丛威,2013：我国煤炭产能调控动力机制及模式研究[D],中国矿业大学博士学位论文,pp6-225。
① 2011年7月10日,京藏高速及110国道呼包段改扩建工程交通管制的实施,引发京藏高速公路周边路段出现大拥堵。
② 2012年5月16日铁运电(2012)36号文件。
③ 数据来自2012年《中国统计年鉴》。
④ 这一方面是技术上的难度,1000千伏以上的输电在世界上还没有任何国家正式推行,另一方面是地方利益的调整。特高压电网建成后,用电地区的发电厂将大量关闭,从而导致这些地区税收损失及再就业人员安排等问题,因此特高压的推广可能受到用电地区的阻力。
① 发改委张有生：我国煤炭资源开发上限为40亿吨,来源于：中国矿业网,2011年6月14日(http://finance.jrj.com.cn/2011/06/10104210172282.shtml)
② 数据参见茅于轼、盛洪、杨富强等：《煤炭的真实成本》第1版,煤炭工业出版社,2008年10月,pp6。
① 数据来自Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency。
② 根据国家统计局发布的《2012年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》,2012年我国原煤产量36.5亿吨,煤炭消费量比上年增长2.5%,达到35.4亿吨。
③ 见中国财经网：山西煤炭采空区坍陷调查(http://www.fecn.net/2011/1103/10981.html)。
① 数据来源：statistical review of world energy 2013》。
② Hook,M.,Zittel,W.,Schindler,J.,Aleklett,K.,2010, "Global coal production outlooks based on a logistic model."[J].Fuel,89(11),pp3546-3558.
① Lin,B.Q.,Liu,J.H.,2010, "Estimating coal production peak and trends of coal imports in China."[J],Energy Policy 38(2010),pp512-519.
① 数据来源《BP statistical review of world energy 2007》。
① Hubbert, M K.,1959. "Techniques of prediction with application to the petroleum industry."[J] In: Published in 44th Annual Meeting of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. Shell Development Company, Dallas, TX, p.43.
② Hook,M.,Aleklett,K.,2009, "Historical trends in American coal production and a possible future outlook."[J].International Journal of Coal Geology,78(3),pp201-216.
③ Lin,B.,Q.,Wang,T.,2012,"Forecasting natural gas supply in China:production peak and import trends."[J].Energy Policy,49(2012),pp225-233.
① 本研究采用煤炭基础储量代替已探明的煤炭资源量,由于并不是所有煤炭基础储量都能全部开发,即使采用先进的技术能全部开采所有基础储量,但是我们还必须考虑到隐含采收率,因此上述结论应该被视为煤炭产量的上限。
② EWG,2007a,"Crude oil-the supply outlook." EWG-Series no.3(October 2007)。 由表7-2可知,对于全国而言,当煤炭储量每变化100亿吨,Logistic曲线模型所预测得到的中国煤炭产量峰值会同方向变化大约2亿吨,且煤炭峰值出现的年份也会同方向变化1年,峰值年份变化较小,属于非敏感性因素。因此,我们可以得出结论：在预计煤炭储量不会有太大变化的情况下,本文预测所得到的结论是合理的。
(2)基于山西省的实证研究① 煤炭峰值预测
① 资料来源：《国务院关于印发节能减排“十二五”规划的通知》,国发[2012]40号)
① 安监总煤[2009]157号《关于深化煤矿整顿关闭工作的指导意见》。
① 数据来源于中投咨询网：2012年我国煤炭寒潮出路分析(http://www.ocn.com.cn/free/201208/metian230946.shtml)
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① “低果先摘”原理：主要是指扩大生产任何一种产品时,首先使用机会成本最低的资源,首先从高品质、易开采的资源下手,然后才是一些勘探和开采难度较大的资源。
《BP世界能源统计年鉴》,我国已探明的煤炭储量数据自1992年开始一直为1145亿吨。
① 世界环境与发展委员会：《我们共同的未来》[M],吉林人民出版社,1997年。
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① 数据来源：《BP世界能源统计报告(2013)》。
should China start cutting its emissions?”, (http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/7910)。
① 数据来自新华网,(http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2013-02/22/c_114771980.htm)
② 数据来自CECI(中国经济数据库)。
① 何晓萍、刘希颖、林艳苹,2009：中国城市化进程中的电力需求预测[J],经济研究,pp118-128。
① 数据来自United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision:Highlights. New York,2010.
① 同济大学建筑与城市规划学院院长吴志强认为,在未来30年里,我国的城市化水平还有较大提升空间,到2040年,我国城市化水平将达到80%,进入成熟的现代化国家行列,与世界发达国家共同构成世界第一团队(来源于：新华每日电讯头版新闻,2010年6月9日)；中国社科院城市与竞争力研究中心主任倪鹏飞则认为发达国家的城市化率大都在75%以上,中国实现75%的城市化目标应该在2040年左右(来源于：时代周报,2012年第78期)。
② 李善同,2010：“十二五”时期至2030年我国经济增长前景展望[J],经济研究参考,pp3-27。
① 数据来源于：搜狐网：中煤协预测2020年中国煤炭消费量将达约48亿吨。(http://news.sohu.com/20131124/n390691958.shtml)。
② 丛威,2013：我国煤炭产能调控动力机制及模式研究[D],中国矿业大学博士学位论文,pp6-225。
① 2011年7月10日,京藏高速及110国道呼包段改扩建工程交通管制的实施,引发京藏高速公路周边路段出现大拥堵。
② 2012年5月16日铁运电(2012)36号文件。
③ 数据来自2012年《中国统计年鉴》。
④ 这一方面是技术上的难度,1000千伏以上的输电在世界上还没有任何国家正式推行,另一方面是地方利益的调整。特高压电网建成后,用电地区的发电厂将大量关闭,从而导致这些地区税收损失及再就业人员安排等问题,因此特高压的推广可能受到用电地区的阻力。
① 发改委张有生：我国煤炭资源开发上限为40亿吨,来源于：中国矿业网,2011年6月14日(http://finance.jrj.com.cn/2011/06/10104210172282.shtml)
② 数据参见茅于轼、盛洪、杨富强等：《煤炭的真实成本》第1版,煤炭工业出版社,2008年10月,pp6。
① 数据来自Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency。
② 根据国家统计局发布的《2012年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》,2012年我国原煤产量36.5亿吨,煤炭消费量比上年增长2.5%,达到35.4亿吨。
③ 见中国财经网：山西煤炭采空区坍陷调查(http://www.fecn.net/2011/1103/10981.html)。
① 数据来源：statistical review of world energy 2013》。
② Hook,M.,Zittel,W.,Schindler,J.,Aleklett,K.,2010, "Global coal production outlooks based on a logistic model."[J].Fuel,89(11),pp3546-3558.
① Lin,B.Q.,Liu,J.H.,2010, "Estimating coal production peak and trends of coal imports in China."[J],Energy Policy 38(2010),pp512-519.
① 数据来源《BP statistical review of world energy 2007》。
① Hubbert, M K.,1959. "Techniques of prediction with application to the petroleum industry."[J] In: Published in 44th Annual Meeting of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. Shell Development Company, Dallas, TX, p.43.
② Hook,M.,Aleklett,K.,2009, "Historical trends in American coal production and a possible future outlook."[J].International Journal of Coal Geology,78(3),pp201-216.
③ Lin,B.,Q.,Wang,T.,2012,"Forecasting natural gas supply in China:production peak and import trends."[J].Energy Policy,49(2012),pp225-233.
① 本研究采用煤炭基础储量代替已探明的煤炭资源量,由于并不是所有煤炭基础储量都能全部开发,即使采用先进的技术能全部开采所有基础储量,但是我们还必须考虑到隐含采收率,因此上述结论应该被视为煤炭产量的上限。
② EWG,2007a,"Crude oil-the supply outlook." EWG-Series no.3(October 2007)。 由表7-2可知,对于全国而言,当煤炭储量每变化100亿吨,Logistic曲线模型所预测得到的中国煤炭产量峰值会同方向变化大约2亿吨,且煤炭峰值出现的年份也会同方向变化1年,峰值年份变化较小,属于非敏感性因素。因此,我们可以得出结论：在预计煤炭储量不会有太大变化的情况下,本文预测所得到的结论是合理的。
(2)基于山西省的实证研究① 煤炭峰值预测
① 资料来源：《国务院关于印发节能减排“十二五”规划的通知》,国发[2012]40号)
① 安监总煤[2009]157号《关于深化煤矿整顿关闭工作的指导意见》。
① 数据来源于中投咨询网：2012年我国煤炭寒潮出路分析(http://www.ocn.com.cn/free/201208/metian230946.shtml)
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