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外资参股与中资银行综合价值创造能力研究
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摘要
进入本世纪以来,随着我国金融体制不断改革与发展,我国商业银行自身的经营水平和竞争能力也得到了一定的改善。而在商业银行改革与发展的过程中,境外投资者的引入无疑是一个颇为引人注目的现象,包括国有商业银行以及股份制商业银行在内的很多大型商业银行均曾引入境外投资者进行参股,以期望从中获得一定的绩效提升效果。在这样的背景下,科学合理的认识我国商业银行经营水平的变化,评判商业银行现有战略的得失以及境外投资者参股在我国商业银行发展中起到的作用具有一定的现实意义和参考价值。
     曾有很多学者对外资参股与商业银行绩效之间的关系进行过多方面的研究。然而从现有研究来看,其所采用的商业银行绩效评价大多为财务指标或效率指标等短期评价体系,无法从全方面体现商业银行综合竞争力的变化,同时对于外资参股对商业银行的影响也缺乏理论层面的分析。基于以上背景,本文从我国商业银行的绩效评价出发,着重探讨了境外战略投资者的战略参股行为对中资银行综合价值创造能力所产生的影响。首先,本文基于商业银行的盈利性、安全性、流动性、规模性以及治理结构和长期发展能力的评估建立了一套能够从不同侧面反映我国商业银行综合价值创造能力的评价指标;其次,本文从理论层面探讨了外资参股对东道国银行经营绩效所产生的影响,指出外资银行的参股可能从促进银行技术进步以及治理结构改善两个方面提升国内银行的综合价值创造能力,但其具体效果依赖于国内银行自身的技术基础、市场结构以及外资投资者的特征等因素;再次,在理论分析的基础上,通过对我国12家主要商业银行综合价值创造能力的测算评价了商业银行近年来经营状况的变化趋势,并以此为基础借鉴计量经济模型和案例分析考察外资参股对我国商业银行经营状况所产生的影响;最后,结合本文的理论分析与实证研究结论给出了我国商业银行在未来发展和引进外资过程中的对策与建议。通过相关研究,本文认为,我国商业银行的综合价值创造能力在近年来得到了相当程度的改善与提升,但这种提升主要源自于我国经济的发展以及国有银行的股份制改革的推动,而并非源自外资银行对我国银行的参股行为。但从具体细节来看,外资进入仍对于银行某些局部方面的经营绩效产生了一定的推动和促进作用。
     总体而言,本文的主要创新点如下:
     (1)本文针对我国商业银行原有的经营发展状况评价指标体系的缺陷,从盈利性、安全性、流动性、规模性、管理能力以及长期发展能力六个方面探索性的构造了一个综合价值创造能力评价指标体系,这对于高风险,高收益的银行资本市场的持续发展和稳健运行具有一定的参考价值。
     (2)论文从外资银行参股所带来的技术转移效应以及治理结构改善效应两方面入手,从理论层面分析了外资银行进入对我国商业银行绩效水平和价值能力所可能产生的影响以及具体的作用机制,弥补了现有研究在理论方面的不足。
     (3)论文利用我国银行的年报数据资料对12家主要国内商业银行近年来综合价值创造能力的变化进行了测算与评价,较为准确和系统的反映了我国商业银行近年来的经营状况
     (4)在剔除我国宏观经济发展国有商业银行股份制改革效应的情况下,构建计量检验模型对外资银行参股对我国银行综合价值创造能力产生的影响进行实证检验,对我国商业银行综合价值创造能力变化背后的真实原因形成更为科学准确的判断。
Since2000, together with the transformation and the opening of the bank system, the operation level and the competitiveness of Chinese commercial banks have also been improved. Among the process of transformation and development, the penetration of foreign investment is undoubtedly the most striking phenomenon. Nearly all commercial banks, including joint-stock banks and state-owned banks have attracted foreign investors in order to promote their business results. With this background, it's valuable and practically significant to know about the change of Chinese commercial banks' operation level, evaluate their strategies and the role played by foreign investors in their operation.
     Many researchers have studied the relationship between the penetration of foreign investment and the performance of commercial banks, While much of them based on the short-term evaluation system such as financial index or efficiency index, which cannot reflect the integral status of commercial banks. Also these researches were lack of theoretical analysis. Based upon these backgrounds, this dissertation has come up from the evaluation of commercial banks' performance and discussed the effect of strategy investment of foreign investors to Chinese banks'composite value creation capacity. Firstly, this dissertation intends to setup an integrated indicator to illustrate the composite value creation capacity of the Chinese commercial banks based on their profitability, safety, liquidity, scale, managerial structure and long-term development capacity. Secondly, we discussed the effect of foreign invest to host country's commercial bank at theoretical level and pointed out that foreign invest can affect domestic banks' composite value creation capacity in two ways:one is to promote domestic bank's technology progress, and the other is to improve domestic banks' managerial structure, while the specific results will depends on domestic banks' technology base, market structure and the character of foreign investors. Thirdly, Using12Chinese main commercial banks as the sample, this dissertation has calculated their composite value creation capacity index. Finally, based upon the result, the study examined the effect of foreign invest in Chinese commercial banks with the econometrics model and case study. Through theoretical analysis and empirical test, we conclude that the composite value capacity of Chinese commercial banks has improved in recent years, but this achievement is mainly caused by financial growth of China and the joint-stock reformation of the state-owned banks but not the strategy investment of foreign banks. But in some aspects, the entrance of the foreign investment also contributed to the development of some banks.
     The main creation of this dissertation can be summarized as below.
     (1) Aiming at the flaw of the existing performance evaluating index of commercial banks, this dissertation has constructed a new set of Composite Value Creation Capacity Index concluding profit, safety, liquidity, scale, managerial capacity and long-term development capacity, which is useful to the sustainable development and stably operation of commercial bank market that face to high risks and high backwards.
     (2) Focus on the technology-transfer effect and the management structure's improvement effect, this dissertation has discussed the effect of foreign invest to domestic commercial banks' composite value creation capacity as well as the mechanism in theoretical level, and given the political suggestions from both macro (industry) and micro (enterprise) level.
     (3) Used12Chinese main commercial banks as the sample, this dissertation calculated and evaluated their composite value creation capacity so that it can reflect Chinese commercial banks' operation conditions more accurately.
     (4) By removing the effect brought by the development of Chinese economy and the Joint-stock reform of Chinese state-owned banks, this dissertation examined the foreign investors' efforts to Chinese commercial banks'composite value creation capacity by setting up econometric model, so that it can give a more accurate judgment about the reason behind the promotion of Chinese commercial banks' performance.
引文
1 1998年,财政部向四大国有银行发行2700亿元长期特别国债,所筹资金全部用于补充四大国有银行资本金。次月,财政部又面向四大国有银行定向发行了1000亿元年利率5.5%的10年期附息国债。
    2 数据引自华猛,“论金融资产管理公司转型发展”,《银行家》,2008年第7期。
    3 数据引自戴相龙,“在2001不良资产处置国际论坛上的讲话”,《国际金融报》,2001年11月2日。
    4 资料来源:根据《中国金融年鉴》各期计算。
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