环渤海13城市主要化学污染物排海总量控制方案研究
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摘要
改革开放近30年来,随着环渤海地区社会经济的快速发展,化学污染物的排海数量不断增加,渤海海水水质不断恶化,而原有的浓度控制和目标总量控制制度已不能满足海洋环境管理的需求。实施污染物排海容量总量控制是改善海洋环境质量的重要措施,具体包括污染物排海通量估算、海洋环境容量与流域分配容量计算、沿海城市容量的优化分配等,其中污染物排海通量估算是总量控制实施的基础,而海洋环境容量的计算与优化分配则是排海总量控制的核心和关键。本文针对水环境管理科学中容量的优化分配这一前沿领域和热点问题,在渤海主要化学污染物海洋环境容量和主要河流流域分配容量研究工作的基础上,依据多目标非线性规划原理,研究了环渤海城市COD和DIN的总量控制方案,并在此基础上对天津产业/行业结构进行了优化调整,主要研究方法与成果如下:
(1)系统汇总、分析了渤海的污染源,建立了污染物排海通量估算的原则及方法,并据此估算了环渤海13城市COD、石油烃、营养盐、溶解态重金属等污染物的历年排海通量。结果表明,自20世纪70年代以来,环渤海13城市COD排海总量总体上表现出倒“U”形变化趋势,年均排海通量150万t/a左右。石油烃表现出倒“N”形变化趋势,年均排海通量1.5万t/a左右。DIN表现“N”形变化趋势,年均排海通量15万t/a左右。其它污染物TDP、挥发酚、Hg、Cd、Cr、Pb、砷、氰化物、悬浮固体年均排海通量分别为2万t/a、300 t/a、30 t/a、400 t/a、2000 t/a、1400 t/a、2000 t/a、800 t/a和480万t/a左右。
(2)对污染的来源进行系统分析结果表明,入海河流是渤海污染物的主要来源,对于石油烃海上污染源是污染物的重要来源,仅次于河流;对于DIN、DIP、COD、Hg、挥发酚排污口也是污染物的重要来源;对于COD、Pb大气沉降的作用不可忽视。对于不同的污染物,13个城市污染物排放比例有所不同,总体上说来,污染物主要来源于东营、营口、盘锦、唐山、天津和潍坊,其它城市所占比例较小。
(3)规范了排放容量概念,建立了估算城市污染物允许排放容量的原则与原理并依据多目标非线性规划方法,以实现渤海海洋环境容量、流域分配容量、城市允许排放容量最大为目标函数,以经济与人口增长、污染物排放、环境投资等为约束条件建立城市允许排放容量的估算模型,优化结果表明,在国家一类海水水质标准下,对于环渤海13城市COD,除秦皇岛和唐山外其余城市都需要不同程度的削减,其中营口的削减量最大为7.3万t/a,沧州的削减量最小为1.2万t/a;对于削减比例,盘锦的削减比例最大,潍坊的削减比例最小。在国家一类海水水质标准下,环渤海13城市的DIN均需要不同程度的削减,其中天津的削减量最大为2.11万t/a,烟台的削减量最小为0.16万t/a。对于削减比例,营口的削减比例最大,相当于基准年排海通量的86%,唐山的削减比例最小。
(4)以实现第一、二、三产业各部门允许排放容量最大为目标函数,以经济增长、产业结构比例、污染物排放强度等为约束条件建立产业允许排放容量计算的多目标非线性规划模型,结果表明,在国家一类海水水质标准下,规划年各产业部门的COD均需不同程度的削减,其中第二产业中的工业部门的COD削减数量最大,约2万t/a,而林业部门的削减数量最小。第一、二、三产业结构比例由3.0:56.0:41.0调整为2.0:55.6:42.4。
(5)以实现工业各部门允许排放容量最大为目标函数,以经济增长、污染物排放强度、水耗、能耗、劳动生产率等为约束条件建立行业允许排放容量计算的多目标非线性规划模型,结果表明,工业部门中,建材、医药、汽车、机械、电信和环保等6个行业的COD允许排放容量有一定的盈余,其中医药行业还可额外排放的数量最大为0.03万t/a,汽车行业可额外排放的比例最大。其他行业的COD需不同程度的削减,其中造纸行业的削减数量为1.4万t/a,削减比例也最大,相当于基准年的48%。在实现各产业/行业允许排放量最大前提下,天津工业各行业中,需大力发展电信、汽车、医药、机械等行业;适当发展服装、建材、石油、化工、环保、能源等部门;适当限制纺织、造纸、化学等行业,严格限制采掘、冶金、食品行业。
本论文的研究成果为我国近海总量控制的实施提供了必要的理论基础和技术支撑,对渤海生态环境治理以及沿海城市的产业结构优化调整具有直接的指导意义。
In the past 30 years of reform and opening up in China, with the rapid development of society and economy of the Bohai Rim Region, more and more pollutants have been discharged into Bohai Sea, thus it leads to deteriorating seawater quality. However, the original concentration control and target total emission control systems are unable to meet the demand of modern management of the marine environment. The implementation of capacity total emission control of pollutants is an important and effective measure to improve marine water quality. The capacity total emission control contains estimation of pollutant fluxes into the sea, calculation of marine environmental capacity and allocated capacity, optimization and allocation of capacity. The pollutant flux estimation is the base, and the calculation, allocation and optimization of capacity is the key of the research.
Aimed at the optimization and allocation of capacity, a forefront and hotspot of this field, the research is carried out based on the study of marine environmental capacity and allocated capacity. The allowable emission capacities of chemical oxygen demand (COD) and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) are calculated according to the principle of multi-target nonlinear programming and the scheme of total emission control is proposed, meanwhile, the industrial and industry structure is optimized and adjusted. The methods and results of research are showed as follows:
(1) Various pollution sources of Bohai Sea are summarized and analyzed, the principle and method of estimating the pollutant fluxes into the sea are established, and the law of annual fluxes of COD, petroleum hydrocarbons, nutrients, heavy metals and other pollutants into Bohai Sea from 1979 to 2005 is obtained. The results show that the COD flux from 13 coastal cities presents an inverted U-shape with an average flux of 1,500 thousand t/a, the petroleum hydrocarbons flux presents an inverted N-shape with an average flux of 150 thousand t/a, the DIN flux presents an N-shape with an average flux of 15 thousand t/a. The annual fluxes of total dissolved phosphorus (TDP), volatile phenol, Hg, Cd, Pb, As, Cyanide, suspended solids(SS) are 20 000 t/a, 300 t/a, 30 t/a, 400 t/a, 1 400 t/a 2 000 t/a, 800 t/a, 4800 000 t/a, respectively.
(2) The sources of various pollutants are analyzed and the results show that rivers are the primary pollution source, the sea is an important source for petroleum hydrocarbons, sewage outfalls are also an important source for DIN, TDP, COD, Hg and volatile phenol. The role of atmospheric deposition can not be ignored for COD and Pb pollution. The percentages of various pollutants in 13 cities are different. On the whole, the pollutants in Bohai Sea mainly come from Dongying, Yingkou, Panjin, Tangshan, Tianjin, and Weifang.
(3) The concept of allowable emission capacity is defied and the principle and method of estimating the allowable emission capacity of pollutants in 13 different cities are established. According to multi-objective nonlinear programming, the objective function of the model is the maximization of marine capacity, allocated capacity and emission capacity, and the model constrains contain economic growth, population growth, pollutant emission intensity, environmental investment, and so on. The optimal results show that 13 cities except Qinhuangdao and Tangshan should reduce their discharge of COD under GradeⅠof the National Seawater Quality Standards (NSQS),, the largest reduced quantity of Yingkou is 73 000 t/a, and the least reduced quantity of Cangzhou is 12 000 t/a. As for the reduced rate, Panjin is the largest and Weifang is the least. Under GradeⅠof NSQS, the discharge of DIN also should be reduced in 13 cities, the largest reduced quantity of Tianjin is 21 100 t/a, and the least reduced quantity of Yantai is 1 600 t/a. The reduced rate of 86% in Yingkou is the largest and the reduced rate in Tangshan is the least.
(4) The model of multi-objective nonlinear programming is established based on the objective function of maximizing different industrial sectors’emission capacity, and the constraints of economic growth, industrial structure proportion, pollutant emission intensity. The results show that the discharge of COD in all industrial sectors in Tianjin should be reduced in 2010 under GradeⅠof NSQS. The largest reduced quantity in 13 cities was 20 000 t/a in Industry Sector of the second industry and the reduced quantity in Forestry Sector is the least. Accordingly, the proportion of the first, second and ternary industry is adjusted from 3.0:56.0:41.0 to 2.0:55.6:42.4.
(5) The model of multi-objective nonlinear programming is established based on the objective function of maximizing different industry sectors’emission capacity, and the constraints of economic growth, pollutant emission intensity, water consumption, energy consumption, labor productivity. The results show that the allowable emission capacity of Building Material Industry, Medicine Industry, Automotive Industry, Machinery Industry, Telecom Industry, and Environmental Protection Industry exceeds the discharge in base year (2005). The largest surplus allowable emission quantity of 6 industry sectors is 300 t/a in Medicine Industry and Automotive Industry account for the largest percentage. All the remaining industry sectors should reduced their discharge quantity. The largest reduced quantity of COD is14 000 t/a in Paper Industry, and its reduced rate is also the largest. To maximize the allowable emission capacity of industry sectors, Tianjin government should vigorously develop Telecom Industry, Automotive Industry, Medicine Industry and Machinery Industry, properly develop Garment Industry, Building Material Industry, Oil Industry, Chemical Engineering Industry, Environmental Protection Industry, Energy Industry. On the other hand, Textile Industry, Paper Industry, Chemical Industry should be reasonably restricted and Mining Industry, Metallurgical Industry should by strictly restricted.
The research work supply necessary theoretical foundation and technical support for the implement of total emission control in coastal waters in China, furthermore, it can direct the ecological environmental governance and the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure of coastal cities.
(1)系统汇总、分析了渤海的污染源,建立了污染物排海通量估算的原则及方法,并据此估算了环渤海13城市COD、石油烃、营养盐、溶解态重金属等污染物的历年排海通量。结果表明,自20世纪70年代以来,环渤海13城市COD排海总量总体上表现出倒“U”形变化趋势,年均排海通量150万t/a左右。石油烃表现出倒“N”形变化趋势,年均排海通量1.5万t/a左右。DIN表现“N”形变化趋势,年均排海通量15万t/a左右。其它污染物TDP、挥发酚、Hg、Cd、Cr、Pb、砷、氰化物、悬浮固体年均排海通量分别为2万t/a、300 t/a、30 t/a、400 t/a、2000 t/a、1400 t/a、2000 t/a、800 t/a和480万t/a左右。
(2)对污染的来源进行系统分析结果表明,入海河流是渤海污染物的主要来源,对于石油烃海上污染源是污染物的重要来源,仅次于河流;对于DIN、DIP、COD、Hg、挥发酚排污口也是污染物的重要来源;对于COD、Pb大气沉降的作用不可忽视。对于不同的污染物,13个城市污染物排放比例有所不同,总体上说来,污染物主要来源于东营、营口、盘锦、唐山、天津和潍坊,其它城市所占比例较小。
(3)规范了排放容量概念,建立了估算城市污染物允许排放容量的原则与原理并依据多目标非线性规划方法,以实现渤海海洋环境容量、流域分配容量、城市允许排放容量最大为目标函数,以经济与人口增长、污染物排放、环境投资等为约束条件建立城市允许排放容量的估算模型,优化结果表明,在国家一类海水水质标准下,对于环渤海13城市COD,除秦皇岛和唐山外其余城市都需要不同程度的削减,其中营口的削减量最大为7.3万t/a,沧州的削减量最小为1.2万t/a;对于削减比例,盘锦的削减比例最大,潍坊的削减比例最小。在国家一类海水水质标准下,环渤海13城市的DIN均需要不同程度的削减,其中天津的削减量最大为2.11万t/a,烟台的削减量最小为0.16万t/a。对于削减比例,营口的削减比例最大,相当于基准年排海通量的86%,唐山的削减比例最小。
(4)以实现第一、二、三产业各部门允许排放容量最大为目标函数,以经济增长、产业结构比例、污染物排放强度等为约束条件建立产业允许排放容量计算的多目标非线性规划模型,结果表明,在国家一类海水水质标准下,规划年各产业部门的COD均需不同程度的削减,其中第二产业中的工业部门的COD削减数量最大,约2万t/a,而林业部门的削减数量最小。第一、二、三产业结构比例由3.0:56.0:41.0调整为2.0:55.6:42.4。
(5)以实现工业各部门允许排放容量最大为目标函数,以经济增长、污染物排放强度、水耗、能耗、劳动生产率等为约束条件建立行业允许排放容量计算的多目标非线性规划模型,结果表明,工业部门中,建材、医药、汽车、机械、电信和环保等6个行业的COD允许排放容量有一定的盈余,其中医药行业还可额外排放的数量最大为0.03万t/a,汽车行业可额外排放的比例最大。其他行业的COD需不同程度的削减,其中造纸行业的削减数量为1.4万t/a,削减比例也最大,相当于基准年的48%。在实现各产业/行业允许排放量最大前提下,天津工业各行业中,需大力发展电信、汽车、医药、机械等行业;适当发展服装、建材、石油、化工、环保、能源等部门;适当限制纺织、造纸、化学等行业,严格限制采掘、冶金、食品行业。
本论文的研究成果为我国近海总量控制的实施提供了必要的理论基础和技术支撑,对渤海生态环境治理以及沿海城市的产业结构优化调整具有直接的指导意义。
In the past 30 years of reform and opening up in China, with the rapid development of society and economy of the Bohai Rim Region, more and more pollutants have been discharged into Bohai Sea, thus it leads to deteriorating seawater quality. However, the original concentration control and target total emission control systems are unable to meet the demand of modern management of the marine environment. The implementation of capacity total emission control of pollutants is an important and effective measure to improve marine water quality. The capacity total emission control contains estimation of pollutant fluxes into the sea, calculation of marine environmental capacity and allocated capacity, optimization and allocation of capacity. The pollutant flux estimation is the base, and the calculation, allocation and optimization of capacity is the key of the research.
Aimed at the optimization and allocation of capacity, a forefront and hotspot of this field, the research is carried out based on the study of marine environmental capacity and allocated capacity. The allowable emission capacities of chemical oxygen demand (COD) and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) are calculated according to the principle of multi-target nonlinear programming and the scheme of total emission control is proposed, meanwhile, the industrial and industry structure is optimized and adjusted. The methods and results of research are showed as follows:
(1) Various pollution sources of Bohai Sea are summarized and analyzed, the principle and method of estimating the pollutant fluxes into the sea are established, and the law of annual fluxes of COD, petroleum hydrocarbons, nutrients, heavy metals and other pollutants into Bohai Sea from 1979 to 2005 is obtained. The results show that the COD flux from 13 coastal cities presents an inverted U-shape with an average flux of 1,500 thousand t/a, the petroleum hydrocarbons flux presents an inverted N-shape with an average flux of 150 thousand t/a, the DIN flux presents an N-shape with an average flux of 15 thousand t/a. The annual fluxes of total dissolved phosphorus (TDP), volatile phenol, Hg, Cd, Pb, As, Cyanide, suspended solids(SS) are 20 000 t/a, 300 t/a, 30 t/a, 400 t/a, 1 400 t/a 2 000 t/a, 800 t/a, 4800 000 t/a, respectively.
(2) The sources of various pollutants are analyzed and the results show that rivers are the primary pollution source, the sea is an important source for petroleum hydrocarbons, sewage outfalls are also an important source for DIN, TDP, COD, Hg and volatile phenol. The role of atmospheric deposition can not be ignored for COD and Pb pollution. The percentages of various pollutants in 13 cities are different. On the whole, the pollutants in Bohai Sea mainly come from Dongying, Yingkou, Panjin, Tangshan, Tianjin, and Weifang.
(3) The concept of allowable emission capacity is defied and the principle and method of estimating the allowable emission capacity of pollutants in 13 different cities are established. According to multi-objective nonlinear programming, the objective function of the model is the maximization of marine capacity, allocated capacity and emission capacity, and the model constrains contain economic growth, population growth, pollutant emission intensity, environmental investment, and so on. The optimal results show that 13 cities except Qinhuangdao and Tangshan should reduce their discharge of COD under GradeⅠof the National Seawater Quality Standards (NSQS),, the largest reduced quantity of Yingkou is 73 000 t/a, and the least reduced quantity of Cangzhou is 12 000 t/a. As for the reduced rate, Panjin is the largest and Weifang is the least. Under GradeⅠof NSQS, the discharge of DIN also should be reduced in 13 cities, the largest reduced quantity of Tianjin is 21 100 t/a, and the least reduced quantity of Yantai is 1 600 t/a. The reduced rate of 86% in Yingkou is the largest and the reduced rate in Tangshan is the least.
(4) The model of multi-objective nonlinear programming is established based on the objective function of maximizing different industrial sectors’emission capacity, and the constraints of economic growth, industrial structure proportion, pollutant emission intensity. The results show that the discharge of COD in all industrial sectors in Tianjin should be reduced in 2010 under GradeⅠof NSQS. The largest reduced quantity in 13 cities was 20 000 t/a in Industry Sector of the second industry and the reduced quantity in Forestry Sector is the least. Accordingly, the proportion of the first, second and ternary industry is adjusted from 3.0:56.0:41.0 to 2.0:55.6:42.4.
(5) The model of multi-objective nonlinear programming is established based on the objective function of maximizing different industry sectors’emission capacity, and the constraints of economic growth, pollutant emission intensity, water consumption, energy consumption, labor productivity. The results show that the allowable emission capacity of Building Material Industry, Medicine Industry, Automotive Industry, Machinery Industry, Telecom Industry, and Environmental Protection Industry exceeds the discharge in base year (2005). The largest surplus allowable emission quantity of 6 industry sectors is 300 t/a in Medicine Industry and Automotive Industry account for the largest percentage. All the remaining industry sectors should reduced their discharge quantity. The largest reduced quantity of COD is14 000 t/a in Paper Industry, and its reduced rate is also the largest. To maximize the allowable emission capacity of industry sectors, Tianjin government should vigorously develop Telecom Industry, Automotive Industry, Medicine Industry and Machinery Industry, properly develop Garment Industry, Building Material Industry, Oil Industry, Chemical Engineering Industry, Environmental Protection Industry, Energy Industry. On the other hand, Textile Industry, Paper Industry, Chemical Industry should be reasonably restricted and Mining Industry, Metallurgical Industry should by strictly restricted.
The research work supply necessary theoretical foundation and technical support for the implement of total emission control in coastal waters in China, furthermore, it can direct the ecological environmental governance and the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure of coastal cities.
引文
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