中国利用FDI质量问题的研究
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摘要
基于利用FDI获得收益的视角,本文从引进FDI和FDI的利用绩效两个层面确立评价我国利用FDI质量的指标体系,分别评价引进FDI质量和FDI的利用质量,从多角度对我国利用FDI质量的状况和不同区域利用FDI质量的差异作出初步判断,剖析优惠政策和汇率影响我国引进FDI质量的机理,并根据利用FDI质量的现状提出改善我国利用FDI质量的途径与对策。
本文采用规范研究和实证研究相结合、归纳与演绎推理相结合、理论联系实际等方法进行研究。运用归纳法确立利用FDI质量的评价体系;运用一般统计分析法、回归分析法、协整分析法、综列数据模型考察我国利用FDI的质量;运用数理模型、演绎推理方法揭示优惠政策和汇率影响引进FDI质量的机理。
论文从引进FDI质量和FDI的利用质量进行展开,主要内容及观点如下:评价利用FDI的质量关键看我国利用FDI获得的收益,引进FDI的质量评价指标是在引进FDI时甄别其潜在收益,FDI的利用质量评价指标是判断利用FDI获得的实际收益。FDI项目规模、来源和利用方式是评价引进FDI质量的指标,统计分析发现,FDI的质量与项目规模正相关;从大多数指标看,港澳台资的质量低于其他FDI企业,但从溢出效应和产出增长质量看,结论要视具体时间而定;而不同利用方式的FDI质量不能得出简单的判断。
我国引进FDI的质量总体上是随时间变化不断上升。引进FDI在具体内容上的质量是不同的,从产业结构的影响看,FDI对我国产业结构的调整有积极作用,但不利于产业结构的进一步优化;我国引进FDI在大多数方面如来源和空间结构、FDI的知识、技术含量、实际FDI到位率等方面的质量不高。
我国利用FDI在推动经济增长、产业结构升级、现代产业发展、出口扩大、就业增加、经济结构多元化等方面的质量是应该肯定的;但在经济增长质量、区域经济协调发展、FDI企业本地化程度、溢出效应、R&D水平、税收优惠的净福利效应、带动民营经济发展等方面,我国FDI的利用质量不高。
我国利用FDI质量在空间上存在明显差距。引进FDI质量的空间差异因具体内容而异,从FDI项目的平均规模不能简单地判定区域引进FDI的质量差异;从潜在的技术溢出效应看,中西部引进FDI的质量高于东部,从潜在的管理溢出效应看,中部地区引进FDI的质量高于东西部;从FDI企业的科技能力与水平看,东西部在多数年份引进FDI的质量高于中部。FDI的利用质量的空间差异也是因具体内容而异,从出口贡献看,东部FDI的利用质量最高,中部也高,西部低;从资产税收贡献看,中部利用FDI的质量高于东部;从产出质量和FDI企业本地化经营程度看,东部利用FDI的质量低于中西部;在经济增长和溢出效应方面,东部、中部、西部FDI的利用质量都是可以肯定的;在经济增长质量影响方面,黑龙江、山西、内蒙古、甘肃、广西、云南等地区在提高经济增长质量方面的FDI利用质量较高,而东部及其紧邻沿海的某些省份和陕西及新疆等18个省份FDI的利用质量低;在高技术产业发展、工业结构优化的推动作用方面,晋辽吉沪苏浙皖鲁鄂湘琼川宁新利用FDI质量较高,京津冀内黑闽赣豫粤桂黔云陕甘地区利用FDI的质量低;在R&D方面,仅东部沿海7省市FDI的利用质量比较高,而大多数省市区的质量低。
影响利用FDI质量的因素很多,优惠政策一直伴随我国利用FDI活动,建立用优惠政策引进FDI的数理模型揭示优惠政策导致了我国在1992年前引进FDI的质量下降机理,而1992年后市场化进程的加速,提高了我国引进FDI的质量;人民币汇率随汇率制度的改革而不断变化,汇率也成为影响引进FDI质量不可忽视的因素,汇率主要通过影响不同动机、不同来源和不同项目规模的FDI而影响我国引进FDI的质量。
我国利用FDI的模式要实现由数量型向质量型转变,应调整利用FDI的战略与对策,主要通过优化投资环境、积极利用政策的引导功能来提高我国引进FDI的质量,通过加强监管、促进FDI企业生产的本地化、创造公平竞争的环境、提高人力资本存量和企业技术能力等途径来提高FDI的利用质量;同时加强制度建设、加大科技、教育的投入、鼓励支持民营企业的发展来提高利用FDI的质量。
Based on gains from FDI, this paper establishes an assessment framework of the quality of utilizing FDI in China from the aspects of introducing and utilizing FDI to assess the quality of FDI itself and achievements of utilizing FDI respectively, so as to make a preliminary determination of actual conditions and regional differences of utilizing FDI by several norms, to analyze effect mechanisms of favorable treatments and exchange rate on introducing FDI in China, and to put forward measures to improve the utilization of FDI.
Several methods, such as normative and positive analyses, induction and deduction, theoretical abstraction and practical investigation, statistic, regression analysis, the method of co-integration and panel data model, have been applied in this paper for inspecting quality of FDI in China, mathematical logical models and deduction for revealing affection mechanism of favorable treatments and exchange rate on FDI in China.
The content of this paper is listed out as follows:
Assessment of the quality of utilizing FDI is decided by gains from utilizing FDI. Norms of introducing FDI are for assessing the potential benefits from FDI in the process of introducing it, while the norms of utilizing FDI are for determining the actual benefits from utilizing it. Scales, sources and utilizing modes of FDI are the norms for assessing introducing FDI. Positive analyses with statistics reveals that the quality of FDI positively interrelate with its scale. The quality of FDI from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan is worse than that from other regions according to lots of norms, but from points of spillover effects and output increasing quality, we should draw a conclusion as to specific periods.
Moreover, the quality of FDI with different utilizing modes is difficult to determine. Quality of FDI in China is being continuously improved over time. Specifically, it varies according to different norms. While having positive effects to a certain extent on adjusting our industrial structure, FDI hinders the further optimization of the industrial structure in China. Judging by sources, utilizing modes, regional distributions of FDI, knowledge and technology from FDI and actual FDI appropriative rate, we find that the quality of FDI in China is relatively low.
Positive analyses on utilizing FDI reveals that FDI in China has brought positive effects on economic growth, upgrade of industrial structure, development of modern industry, direct & indirect contribution of export, expansion of employment and diversification of economy, but quality of utilizing FDI is not high in accordance with norms of quality of economic growth, coordinative development of regional economy, localization of FDI enterprises, spillover effects, levels of R&D, net welfare effects of tax favorable treatments and affection on private enterprises in China.
There are wide gaps for quality of introducing FDI in different regions, and the gaps for quality of utilizing FDI vary with the changing of specific conditions. We shouldn’t determine the differences in quality of FDI in different regions by scale. If judging by potential technology spillover effects, quality of FDI in western and central China is higher than that in eastern China; by potential management spillover effects of FDI, the quality of FDI in central China is higher than that in eastern and western China; by technology levels, the quality of FDI in western and eastern China is higher than that in central China for lots of inspected years. By norms of FDI exports contribution, quality of FDI in eastern China is the highest, the next is central China and the lowest is western China. By norms of assets and tax contribution, the quality of utilizing FDI in central China is higher than that in eastern China; by output quality and localization extent of FDI enterprises, utilizing quality in eastern China is lower than that in central and western China. From the point of economic growth and spillover effects, utilizing quality in eastern China, in central China, in western China, is high. From the point of the effect on quality of economic growth, the quality of utilizing FDI is higher in Helongjiang, shanxi, Neimonggu,Gansu,Guangxi,Yunnan,and in eastern coastline provinces and next some coastline provinces and Shaan’xi, as well as Xinjiang autonomous region, is low. From the points of promotion of hi—tech industries and optimization of industrial structure, the quality of utilizing FDI in Shanxi, Liaoning, Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Shandong, Hubei, Hainan, Sichuan, Ningxia, Xinjiang, is high, and in Beijing, Tianjing, Guangdong, Fujian, Hubei, Guizhou and Shaan’xi, Neimonggu, Heilongjiang , Jiangxi, Henan, Guangxi, Yunnan, Shanxi,Gansu, is low. From R&D, quality of FDI in only 7 eastern coastline provinces and cities is relatively high while that in other provinces is low.
Being one of the important factors affecting the quality of utilizing FDI, favorable treatments always accompany with the process of utilizing. Mathematical model for assessing introducing FDI by favorable treatments explains the reasons that favorable treatments for introducing FDI before 1992 resulted in decrease in quality of FDI, and with the acceleration of marketing since 1992, quality of introducing FDI has being improved. In addition, exchange rate affects quality of utilizing FDI through affecting motives, sources and scales of different FDI projects.
To transform from the mode only concerning the amount of FDI to the one concentrating on the quality of utilizing FDI, we should adjust strategy and policy for FDI via enhancing supervision, promoting localization of FDI enterprises, creating fair competition environment, improving deposit of human resources and innovation capacity of enterprises so as to improve the quality of utilizing FDI. Meanwhile, we should optimize institutions, increase investments to science & technology and education, encourage and support private enterprises to improve its quality.
本文采用规范研究和实证研究相结合、归纳与演绎推理相结合、理论联系实际等方法进行研究。运用归纳法确立利用FDI质量的评价体系;运用一般统计分析法、回归分析法、协整分析法、综列数据模型考察我国利用FDI的质量;运用数理模型、演绎推理方法揭示优惠政策和汇率影响引进FDI质量的机理。
论文从引进FDI质量和FDI的利用质量进行展开,主要内容及观点如下:评价利用FDI的质量关键看我国利用FDI获得的收益,引进FDI的质量评价指标是在引进FDI时甄别其潜在收益,FDI的利用质量评价指标是判断利用FDI获得的实际收益。FDI项目规模、来源和利用方式是评价引进FDI质量的指标,统计分析发现,FDI的质量与项目规模正相关;从大多数指标看,港澳台资的质量低于其他FDI企业,但从溢出效应和产出增长质量看,结论要视具体时间而定;而不同利用方式的FDI质量不能得出简单的判断。
我国引进FDI的质量总体上是随时间变化不断上升。引进FDI在具体内容上的质量是不同的,从产业结构的影响看,FDI对我国产业结构的调整有积极作用,但不利于产业结构的进一步优化;我国引进FDI在大多数方面如来源和空间结构、FDI的知识、技术含量、实际FDI到位率等方面的质量不高。
我国利用FDI在推动经济增长、产业结构升级、现代产业发展、出口扩大、就业增加、经济结构多元化等方面的质量是应该肯定的;但在经济增长质量、区域经济协调发展、FDI企业本地化程度、溢出效应、R&D水平、税收优惠的净福利效应、带动民营经济发展等方面,我国FDI的利用质量不高。
我国利用FDI质量在空间上存在明显差距。引进FDI质量的空间差异因具体内容而异,从FDI项目的平均规模不能简单地判定区域引进FDI的质量差异;从潜在的技术溢出效应看,中西部引进FDI的质量高于东部,从潜在的管理溢出效应看,中部地区引进FDI的质量高于东西部;从FDI企业的科技能力与水平看,东西部在多数年份引进FDI的质量高于中部。FDI的利用质量的空间差异也是因具体内容而异,从出口贡献看,东部FDI的利用质量最高,中部也高,西部低;从资产税收贡献看,中部利用FDI的质量高于东部;从产出质量和FDI企业本地化经营程度看,东部利用FDI的质量低于中西部;在经济增长和溢出效应方面,东部、中部、西部FDI的利用质量都是可以肯定的;在经济增长质量影响方面,黑龙江、山西、内蒙古、甘肃、广西、云南等地区在提高经济增长质量方面的FDI利用质量较高,而东部及其紧邻沿海的某些省份和陕西及新疆等18个省份FDI的利用质量低;在高技术产业发展、工业结构优化的推动作用方面,晋辽吉沪苏浙皖鲁鄂湘琼川宁新利用FDI质量较高,京津冀内黑闽赣豫粤桂黔云陕甘地区利用FDI的质量低;在R&D方面,仅东部沿海7省市FDI的利用质量比较高,而大多数省市区的质量低。
影响利用FDI质量的因素很多,优惠政策一直伴随我国利用FDI活动,建立用优惠政策引进FDI的数理模型揭示优惠政策导致了我国在1992年前引进FDI的质量下降机理,而1992年后市场化进程的加速,提高了我国引进FDI的质量;人民币汇率随汇率制度的改革而不断变化,汇率也成为影响引进FDI质量不可忽视的因素,汇率主要通过影响不同动机、不同来源和不同项目规模的FDI而影响我国引进FDI的质量。
我国利用FDI的模式要实现由数量型向质量型转变,应调整利用FDI的战略与对策,主要通过优化投资环境、积极利用政策的引导功能来提高我国引进FDI的质量,通过加强监管、促进FDI企业生产的本地化、创造公平竞争的环境、提高人力资本存量和企业技术能力等途径来提高FDI的利用质量;同时加强制度建设、加大科技、教育的投入、鼓励支持民营企业的发展来提高利用FDI的质量。
Based on gains from FDI, this paper establishes an assessment framework of the quality of utilizing FDI in China from the aspects of introducing and utilizing FDI to assess the quality of FDI itself and achievements of utilizing FDI respectively, so as to make a preliminary determination of actual conditions and regional differences of utilizing FDI by several norms, to analyze effect mechanisms of favorable treatments and exchange rate on introducing FDI in China, and to put forward measures to improve the utilization of FDI.
Several methods, such as normative and positive analyses, induction and deduction, theoretical abstraction and practical investigation, statistic, regression analysis, the method of co-integration and panel data model, have been applied in this paper for inspecting quality of FDI in China, mathematical logical models and deduction for revealing affection mechanism of favorable treatments and exchange rate on FDI in China.
The content of this paper is listed out as follows:
Assessment of the quality of utilizing FDI is decided by gains from utilizing FDI. Norms of introducing FDI are for assessing the potential benefits from FDI in the process of introducing it, while the norms of utilizing FDI are for determining the actual benefits from utilizing it. Scales, sources and utilizing modes of FDI are the norms for assessing introducing FDI. Positive analyses with statistics reveals that the quality of FDI positively interrelate with its scale. The quality of FDI from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan is worse than that from other regions according to lots of norms, but from points of spillover effects and output increasing quality, we should draw a conclusion as to specific periods.
Moreover, the quality of FDI with different utilizing modes is difficult to determine. Quality of FDI in China is being continuously improved over time. Specifically, it varies according to different norms. While having positive effects to a certain extent on adjusting our industrial structure, FDI hinders the further optimization of the industrial structure in China. Judging by sources, utilizing modes, regional distributions of FDI, knowledge and technology from FDI and actual FDI appropriative rate, we find that the quality of FDI in China is relatively low.
Positive analyses on utilizing FDI reveals that FDI in China has brought positive effects on economic growth, upgrade of industrial structure, development of modern industry, direct & indirect contribution of export, expansion of employment and diversification of economy, but quality of utilizing FDI is not high in accordance with norms of quality of economic growth, coordinative development of regional economy, localization of FDI enterprises, spillover effects, levels of R&D, net welfare effects of tax favorable treatments and affection on private enterprises in China.
There are wide gaps for quality of introducing FDI in different regions, and the gaps for quality of utilizing FDI vary with the changing of specific conditions. We shouldn’t determine the differences in quality of FDI in different regions by scale. If judging by potential technology spillover effects, quality of FDI in western and central China is higher than that in eastern China; by potential management spillover effects of FDI, the quality of FDI in central China is higher than that in eastern and western China; by technology levels, the quality of FDI in western and eastern China is higher than that in central China for lots of inspected years. By norms of FDI exports contribution, quality of FDI in eastern China is the highest, the next is central China and the lowest is western China. By norms of assets and tax contribution, the quality of utilizing FDI in central China is higher than that in eastern China; by output quality and localization extent of FDI enterprises, utilizing quality in eastern China is lower than that in central and western China. From the point of economic growth and spillover effects, utilizing quality in eastern China, in central China, in western China, is high. From the point of the effect on quality of economic growth, the quality of utilizing FDI is higher in Helongjiang, shanxi, Neimonggu,Gansu,Guangxi,Yunnan,and in eastern coastline provinces and next some coastline provinces and Shaan’xi, as well as Xinjiang autonomous region, is low. From the points of promotion of hi—tech industries and optimization of industrial structure, the quality of utilizing FDI in Shanxi, Liaoning, Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Shandong, Hubei, Hainan, Sichuan, Ningxia, Xinjiang, is high, and in Beijing, Tianjing, Guangdong, Fujian, Hubei, Guizhou and Shaan’xi, Neimonggu, Heilongjiang , Jiangxi, Henan, Guangxi, Yunnan, Shanxi,Gansu, is low. From R&D, quality of FDI in only 7 eastern coastline provinces and cities is relatively high while that in other provinces is low.
Being one of the important factors affecting the quality of utilizing FDI, favorable treatments always accompany with the process of utilizing. Mathematical model for assessing introducing FDI by favorable treatments explains the reasons that favorable treatments for introducing FDI before 1992 resulted in decrease in quality of FDI, and with the acceleration of marketing since 1992, quality of introducing FDI has being improved. In addition, exchange rate affects quality of utilizing FDI through affecting motives, sources and scales of different FDI projects.
To transform from the mode only concerning the amount of FDI to the one concentrating on the quality of utilizing FDI, we should adjust strategy and policy for FDI via enhancing supervision, promoting localization of FDI enterprises, creating fair competition environment, improving deposit of human resources and innovation capacity of enterprises so as to improve the quality of utilizing FDI. Meanwhile, we should optimize institutions, increase investments to science & technology and education, encourage and support private enterprises to improve its quality.
引文
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