目的地旅游危机管理：机制、评估与控制
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摘要
随着全球化进程的推进和信息化社会的快速发展,在世界旅游发展过程中,由突发事件而引发的旅游危机现象日益呈现出频发之势,这给旅游管理提出了新的课题,也给旅游危机管理研究提出了新挑战。在旅游危机日益成为旅游发展中出现的常态背景下,为了更好的促进旅游业的可持续发展,扩展和完善旅游管理理论体系,有必要对旅游危机本身和旅游危机管理进行深入、系统的理论研究。本文试图在这一课题上做一些有益的探索。
本文研究是以旅游系统理论、混沌理论(chaos theory)和其他危机理论为基础,通过对以往旅游危机研究文献内容的分析,结合现实旅游业和旅游危机状况,构建了旅游危机管理的框架模型(SSTCM),弥补了以往旅游危机管理框架模型(TDMF)的不足;通过问卷调查获得第一手资料,运用描述性分析、因子分析、主成份分析、交互矩阵分析、方差分析、本底趋势线分析等方法对数据进行了处理,得出了旅游危机形成的根源要素、旅游危机管理组织不同职责在危机生命周期不同阶段的重要性排序、不同性质的旅游危机影响程度等结果。通过实证分析探索、验证和运用研究中提出的理论观点,以此为基础,构建了旅游危机形成机理模型、基于指标的旅游危机预警模式,修正了传统旅游危机影响评估的计量方式。
本研究的主要内容和结论可以大致概括为5个方面。
第一,从旅游者角度出发,构建了基于风险感知的旅游危机形成机理模型。
旅游危机形成的起点是对公众的心理和旅游决策行为产生影响,因此,对旅游者的旅游风险感知研究应是旅游危机研究的重点。本文从公众对危机事件的风险感知为出发点,构建了旅游危机的形成机理模型,为旅游危机评估和旅游危机管理提供了理论指导和依据。本文以2003年SARS事件为例,通过问卷调查的数据,运用Logit模型处理的结果,验证了旅游危机形成机理模型。
第二,对于旅游危机管理来说,最好的管理是防范管理。本文综合采用情景象限法、交叉影响分析法、交互矩阵法、判断矩阵法等,构建了基于指标的旅游危机预警模型。该模型操作简单、使用方便、具有可持续利用的优点
第三,旅游危机管理的“7R”模式
本文以旅游危机的生命周期为主线,提出了“7R”旅游危机管理模式,即侦测(Reconnoitre)、缩减(Reduction)、准备(Readiness)、反应(Response)、恢复(Recovery)、重振(Rejiuvenate)、提升(Raise)。此模式扩展和延伸了旅游危机管理的内容和领域。
第四,旅游危机管理过程中,不同阶段的不同旅游危机管理主体的工作重点是不同的。本文通过问卷调查,运用主成份分析法,得出政府部门、旅游企业、旅游协会等组织在危机前、危机中、危机后的各职责重要性排序,为旅游危机管理计划的制定提供了参考依据。
第五,旅游危机评估研究
本文对旅游危机的评估研究包括两个方面,一是建立了旅游危机管理能力的评估体系,二是对旅游危机后影响评估进行了研究。
对于旅游危机后影响评估和旅游危机影响周期的评估,一种普遍采用的方法就是相邻年比较法。但相邻年比较法是以危机前的状况为基准,使之存在着无法克服的理论缺陷。本文对旅游危机后影响评估采用了旅游本底趋势线法(Tourism Back-Ground Trend Line,TBTL)。对于旅游危机后影响评估,本文研究发现,对于部分旅游危机,可能存在危机后补偿性恢复反弹现象,为了准确和真实地对危机进行评估,那么,旅游危机影响时长应该是旅游危机的负向影响期和补偿性恢复期两者的总和;旅游危机所造成的旅游经济损失量应该是旅游危机当期损失量减去旅游危机后恢复性补偿量。
With the advance of the global progress and the rapid development of informational society, during the develop progress of the world tourism in recently years, the ratio of tourism crisis that caused by abrupt event are being increase. It provide a new problem to tourism management, and it is a challenge to research of crisis management in tourism industry. At the background that tourism crisis are becoming the normal behaviour during the progress of tourism, in order to promote the sustainable development of tourism, extend and perfect the theory system of tourism management, it is necessary to make a systematic exploreal research to theory of tourism crisis and tourism crisis management. The dissertation will do something usefully explore in this regard.
The research at the base of tourism system theory and chaos theory and the other crisis theory, analyse to researchal document of tourism crisis, consider the actual conditions of tourism and tourism crisis, the research construct the sketch model of tourism crisis management, remedy the shortcoming of the other sketch model of tourism crisis management. Based on questionnaire investigation, the dissertation obtains the firsthand materials. The data was deal with by analyze of describe and analyze of element and analyze of main element and analyze of mutual matrix and analyze of cross-tabulation and analyze of back-ground trend line, etc. Obtain the resource element of the form of tourism crisis and the sequence of duty of tourism management organization in crisis life cycle and the degree of effect by different character of tourism crisis.explore and test and employ the theory option that put forward in the dissertation. At the base of the research, constructed the mechanism model of effect of tourism crisis and the model of tourism crisis management, put forward the new means of assess to effect degree of tourism crisis.
The main research content and production is as the follows. Firstly, for the character of complex of tourism and the part of destination and traveler, it is no enough that only to divide the category of tourism crisis into natural crisis and social crisis, at the base of quality of crisis and reason of crisis and classy of crisis and speed of crisis development and so on, the tourism crisis is divided into background crisis and internal caused crisis. Secondly, it is necessary to understand the effectual mechanism of tourism crisis event for effective management of tourism crisis. The psychology and behavior of traveler is influenced by tourism crisis at first, so that it is the key of research for tourism risk sense of traveler in tourism crisis. Take the event of SARS as an example, the deal with to data of investion to SARS event by model of Logit, prove that the degree of effection of crisis event is decided by the character of event and the knowledge to event of traveler and communication and ability to deal with event and so on. Thirdly, the best management is prevention for tourism management, employ the vague methed, construct the index system of tourism crisis forewarning in area where crisis happen and effect, and also building the model of tourism crisis forewarning. Fourly, take the live cycle of tourism crisis as main line, put forward the model of "7R" of tourism crisis management. Overcoming the shortcoming of others research model to tourism crisis, building the Skectche Structure of Tourism Crisis Management (SSTCM) . Fively. during the process of tourism crisis management, different organization of crisis management have different emphase of management at different phase, employ analyze method of main part, draw the conclution that queue of duty of emphase that government and tourism enterprise and tourism association at the different phase of crisis. Sixly. the research of tourism crisis envolution include two sides, one is that have constructed the system of tourism crisis envolution, the other is that the tourism post-crisis envolution. The Tourism Back-ground Line methold is employed to evaluation of effection of tourism post-crisis, it overcoming the shortcoming of compared of close-year methold. The study put forward that the long of effection of tourism crisis should untile the all-out recovery of tourism, and the totle loss of should be the loss that during the term of crisis subtract the increase that during the term of compensation.
本文研究是以旅游系统理论、混沌理论(chaos theory)和其他危机理论为基础,通过对以往旅游危机研究文献内容的分析,结合现实旅游业和旅游危机状况,构建了旅游危机管理的框架模型(SSTCM),弥补了以往旅游危机管理框架模型(TDMF)的不足;通过问卷调查获得第一手资料,运用描述性分析、因子分析、主成份分析、交互矩阵分析、方差分析、本底趋势线分析等方法对数据进行了处理,得出了旅游危机形成的根源要素、旅游危机管理组织不同职责在危机生命周期不同阶段的重要性排序、不同性质的旅游危机影响程度等结果。通过实证分析探索、验证和运用研究中提出的理论观点,以此为基础,构建了旅游危机形成机理模型、基于指标的旅游危机预警模式,修正了传统旅游危机影响评估的计量方式。
本研究的主要内容和结论可以大致概括为5个方面。
第一,从旅游者角度出发,构建了基于风险感知的旅游危机形成机理模型。
旅游危机形成的起点是对公众的心理和旅游决策行为产生影响,因此,对旅游者的旅游风险感知研究应是旅游危机研究的重点。本文从公众对危机事件的风险感知为出发点,构建了旅游危机的形成机理模型,为旅游危机评估和旅游危机管理提供了理论指导和依据。本文以2003年SARS事件为例,通过问卷调查的数据,运用Logit模型处理的结果,验证了旅游危机形成机理模型。
第二,对于旅游危机管理来说,最好的管理是防范管理。本文综合采用情景象限法、交叉影响分析法、交互矩阵法、判断矩阵法等,构建了基于指标的旅游危机预警模型。该模型操作简单、使用方便、具有可持续利用的优点
第三,旅游危机管理的“7R”模式
本文以旅游危机的生命周期为主线,提出了“7R”旅游危机管理模式,即侦测(Reconnoitre)、缩减(Reduction)、准备(Readiness)、反应(Response)、恢复(Recovery)、重振(Rejiuvenate)、提升(Raise)。此模式扩展和延伸了旅游危机管理的内容和领域。
第四,旅游危机管理过程中,不同阶段的不同旅游危机管理主体的工作重点是不同的。本文通过问卷调查,运用主成份分析法,得出政府部门、旅游企业、旅游协会等组织在危机前、危机中、危机后的各职责重要性排序,为旅游危机管理计划的制定提供了参考依据。
第五,旅游危机评估研究
本文对旅游危机的评估研究包括两个方面,一是建立了旅游危机管理能力的评估体系,二是对旅游危机后影响评估进行了研究。
对于旅游危机后影响评估和旅游危机影响周期的评估,一种普遍采用的方法就是相邻年比较法。但相邻年比较法是以危机前的状况为基准,使之存在着无法克服的理论缺陷。本文对旅游危机后影响评估采用了旅游本底趋势线法(Tourism Back-Ground Trend Line,TBTL)。对于旅游危机后影响评估,本文研究发现,对于部分旅游危机,可能存在危机后补偿性恢复反弹现象,为了准确和真实地对危机进行评估,那么,旅游危机影响时长应该是旅游危机的负向影响期和补偿性恢复期两者的总和;旅游危机所造成的旅游经济损失量应该是旅游危机当期损失量减去旅游危机后恢复性补偿量。
With the advance of the global progress and the rapid development of informational society, during the develop progress of the world tourism in recently years, the ratio of tourism crisis that caused by abrupt event are being increase. It provide a new problem to tourism management, and it is a challenge to research of crisis management in tourism industry. At the background that tourism crisis are becoming the normal behaviour during the progress of tourism, in order to promote the sustainable development of tourism, extend and perfect the theory system of tourism management, it is necessary to make a systematic exploreal research to theory of tourism crisis and tourism crisis management. The dissertation will do something usefully explore in this regard.
The research at the base of tourism system theory and chaos theory and the other crisis theory, analyse to researchal document of tourism crisis, consider the actual conditions of tourism and tourism crisis, the research construct the sketch model of tourism crisis management, remedy the shortcoming of the other sketch model of tourism crisis management. Based on questionnaire investigation, the dissertation obtains the firsthand materials. The data was deal with by analyze of describe and analyze of element and analyze of main element and analyze of mutual matrix and analyze of cross-tabulation and analyze of back-ground trend line, etc. Obtain the resource element of the form of tourism crisis and the sequence of duty of tourism management organization in crisis life cycle and the degree of effect by different character of tourism crisis.explore and test and employ the theory option that put forward in the dissertation. At the base of the research, constructed the mechanism model of effect of tourism crisis and the model of tourism crisis management, put forward the new means of assess to effect degree of tourism crisis.
The main research content and production is as the follows. Firstly, for the character of complex of tourism and the part of destination and traveler, it is no enough that only to divide the category of tourism crisis into natural crisis and social crisis, at the base of quality of crisis and reason of crisis and classy of crisis and speed of crisis development and so on, the tourism crisis is divided into background crisis and internal caused crisis. Secondly, it is necessary to understand the effectual mechanism of tourism crisis event for effective management of tourism crisis. The psychology and behavior of traveler is influenced by tourism crisis at first, so that it is the key of research for tourism risk sense of traveler in tourism crisis. Take the event of SARS as an example, the deal with to data of investion to SARS event by model of Logit, prove that the degree of effection of crisis event is decided by the character of event and the knowledge to event of traveler and communication and ability to deal with event and so on. Thirdly, the best management is prevention for tourism management, employ the vague methed, construct the index system of tourism crisis forewarning in area where crisis happen and effect, and also building the model of tourism crisis forewarning. Fourly, take the live cycle of tourism crisis as main line, put forward the model of "7R" of tourism crisis management. Overcoming the shortcoming of others research model to tourism crisis, building the Skectche Structure of Tourism Crisis Management (SSTCM) . Fively. during the process of tourism crisis management, different organization of crisis management have different emphase of management at different phase, employ analyze method of main part, draw the conclution that queue of duty of emphase that government and tourism enterprise and tourism association at the different phase of crisis. Sixly. the research of tourism crisis envolution include two sides, one is that have constructed the system of tourism crisis envolution, the other is that the tourism post-crisis envolution. The Tourism Back-ground Line methold is employed to evaluation of effection of tourism post-crisis, it overcoming the shortcoming of compared of close-year methold. The study put forward that the long of effection of tourism crisis should untile the all-out recovery of tourism, and the totle loss of should be the loss that during the term of crisis subtract the increase that during the term of compensation.
引文
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