建筑火灾环境下人员安全疏散不确定性研究
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摘要
火灾发生和发展的双重性规律决定了建筑防火安全设计过程中存在多种类型的不确定性。人员安全疏散作为建筑防火设计中的重要目标之一,在计算ASET与RSET过程中涉及到很多不确定性的参数,同样也存在不确定性问题。当前,在利用消防设计工具计算可用安全疏散时间(ASET)和必需安全疏散时间(RSET)过程中,经常忽略不确定性或者采用保守取值、安全系数等方法来处理不确定性,而缺乏直接量化其不确定性的有效方法。正确处理这些参数不确定性是建筑防火设计与评估中值得认真思考和深入研究的关键技术问题,是人员安全疏散设计与评估结果是否可信、能否被人们接受的基础。本文针对单一空间建筑,提出系统的人员安全疏散不确定性分析方法,主要研究工作如下:
基于MomeCarlo模拟的人员安全疏散不确定性分析方法。依据火灾动力学理论,建立了ASET和RSET有关的时间预测模型:烟气层高度到达临界高度时间预测模型(即ASET)、探测时间预测模型。阐述了ASET和RSET计算有关的参数不确定性,采用概率手段描述不确定参数,通过MonteCarlo抽样模拟技术分别对ASET和RSET的不确定性进行研究。示例分析结果表明该方法可以应用于人员安全疏散不确定性分析。
提出人员安全疏散参数敏感性分析方法。本文采用单因素敏感性分析方法,在基本取值处对单参数进行敏感性分析,根据敏感性分析结果,将敏感性较小的参数视为常数(取其基准值),然后进行不确定性分析,该方法可以保证不确定性分析精度的同时减少不确定性分析的参数个数,降低不确定性分析的工作量。文中给出示例,先考虑全部不确定参数,对ASET和RSET不确定性进行了研究,然后采用本文提出的参数敏感性方法分别对ASET和RSET不确定参数进行分析,找出主要不确定参数,并通过逐一增加主要不确定参数,研究多个不确定参数对结果的影响。结果表明:在考虑所有主要不确定参数情况下的计算结果与考虑全部不确定参数计算的结果几乎一致,证明了本文提出的人员安全疏散参数敏感性分析方法是正确有效的。
建立了人员安全疏散可靠性分析模型。主要包括:(1)以可靠概率(可靠指数)为安全指标描述建筑火灾人员疏散安全水平,介绍了有关人员安全疏散可靠分析的基本原理,推导了可靠概率的表达式。针对FOSM算法存在的精度和效率问题,提出基于PSO智能优化算法的可靠指数计算方法。示例分析表明:基于PSO智能优化近似算法比FOSM算法更接近MonteCarlo模拟结果,是适用于人员安全疏散可靠概率计算的方法。(2)由于现有算法将参数取为理论分布,有可能造成与参数实际有效取值范围不相符,并导致人员安全疏散可靠概率计算值总是小于1。针对这一问题,考虑参数的实际取值范围,采用概率截尾分布描述不确定参数,推导出截尾分布的PDF表达式,给出了根据截尾分布PDF的随机数产生程序,提出了参数服从截尾分布时人员安全疏散可靠概率计算的MonteCarlo方法。(3)发展了可靠指数对不确定参数的敏感性分析方法,该方法在进行可靠概率计算之前,可以遴选出对结果影响较大的参数。通过分析和比较各参数的敏感性,在参数给定的取值范围内,将敏感性较小的参数视为常数(取其基准值),从而有效减少不确定参数个数,降低可靠概率计算的工作量。示例结果表明本文给出的参数敏感性分析方法是行之有效的。
There are many uncertainties in the building fire protection design process due to the duality of fire occurrence and development. As one of important aims of building fire protection design, the occupant egress safety also contains uncertainty. Many uncertain parameters are involved in the calculation of ASET (Available Safety Egress Time) and RSET (Required Safety Egress Time). Currently, uncertainties often are always ignored or handled with conservative values or safety factors in the calculation of ASET and RSET. These uncertainties can not be quantified by an effective method. To properly deal with these uncertain parameters is a key technique deserved studying, also is the basis for credibility and acceptability of the design and assessment results by people. The systematical method for uncertainty analysis of occupant safety egress in single-room building is discussed in this dissertation. The primary studies are demonstrated as following:
Occupant safety egress uncertainty analysis method based-on MonteCarlo simulation is established. Based on fire dynamics, the time prediction models associated with ASET and RSET are constructed: prediction model of the time at which hot smoke layer reach critical height (i.e. ASET) and prediction model of detection time. The uncertain parameters associated ASET and RSET are discussed. These uncertain parameters are described by probability distributions. The uncertainties of ASET and RSET were also investigated by MonteCarlo simulation technique. The results of the case study demonstrate that it works well in analyzing the uncertainty of occupant safety egress.
We developed the parameter sensitivity analysis method of occupant safety egress. To reduce the amount of uncertain parameters and decrease uncertainty analysis workload, and guarantee the precision of uncertainty analysis at the same time, we utilized the single-factor sensitivity analysis method to investigate sensitivity of individual parameter at the specific benchmark value. Based on the results of sensitivity analysis, the parameters with lower sensitivity were treated as constants. Then, the uncertainty analysis was carried out. A case study is presented, firstly, the uncertainty of ASET and RSET are studied respectively with all uncertain parameters considered. Then, the parameter sensitivities were analyzed by the sensitivity method reported by us. Thus the primary uncertain parameters with higher sensitivity can be found out. We investigated how they affected ASET/RSET through increasing the number of them. When all the primary uncertain parameters are considered, the calculated results were consistent with that when all the uncertain parameters were considered. It suggested that the method of occupant safety egress parameter sensitivity is correct and efficient.
The reliability analysis model was established, which mainly includes: (1) using reliable probability (reliability index) as a measure to describe the safety level of occupant egress under building fire. The principle of occupant safety egress reliability analysis is introduced here, and the reliability is consequently deduced. Aiming at the defects of FOSM calculation method in accuracy and efficiency, this dissertation presents a reliability index calculation method based on PSO optimization method. (2) For present researches, the distributions of parameters are assumed as theoretical distribution, which might be inconsistent with the actual range of parameter in reality. Moreover, the reliability of egress is always less than 1. Aiming at this problem, this dissertation adopts truncated probabilistic distribution to describe the uncertain parameters with considering actual ranges of parameters, and the probability density function (PDF) of truncated probabilistic distribution was thus deduced. We present the random numbers generation method based on the PDF of truncated probabilistic distribution and establish occupant egress reliability Monte- Carlo calculation method for the case that the parameters follow truncated probabilistic distributions. (3) The sensitivity analysis method of reliability index to uncertain parameter was established, which can be used to find the parameters with more significance before calculation of reliability index by comparing the sensitivities of parameters. The parameters with smaller sensitivities can be treated as constants (benchmark value), which can effectively reduce the number of uncertain parameters and decrease calculation load during the uncertainty analysis. A case study was presented. The results demonstrate that the parameter sensitivity analysis method is effective and practicable.
基于MomeCarlo模拟的人员安全疏散不确定性分析方法。依据火灾动力学理论,建立了ASET和RSET有关的时间预测模型:烟气层高度到达临界高度时间预测模型(即ASET)、探测时间预测模型。阐述了ASET和RSET计算有关的参数不确定性,采用概率手段描述不确定参数,通过MonteCarlo抽样模拟技术分别对ASET和RSET的不确定性进行研究。示例分析结果表明该方法可以应用于人员安全疏散不确定性分析。
提出人员安全疏散参数敏感性分析方法。本文采用单因素敏感性分析方法,在基本取值处对单参数进行敏感性分析,根据敏感性分析结果,将敏感性较小的参数视为常数(取其基准值),然后进行不确定性分析,该方法可以保证不确定性分析精度的同时减少不确定性分析的参数个数,降低不确定性分析的工作量。文中给出示例,先考虑全部不确定参数,对ASET和RSET不确定性进行了研究,然后采用本文提出的参数敏感性方法分别对ASET和RSET不确定参数进行分析,找出主要不确定参数,并通过逐一增加主要不确定参数,研究多个不确定参数对结果的影响。结果表明:在考虑所有主要不确定参数情况下的计算结果与考虑全部不确定参数计算的结果几乎一致,证明了本文提出的人员安全疏散参数敏感性分析方法是正确有效的。
建立了人员安全疏散可靠性分析模型。主要包括:(1)以可靠概率(可靠指数)为安全指标描述建筑火灾人员疏散安全水平,介绍了有关人员安全疏散可靠分析的基本原理,推导了可靠概率的表达式。针对FOSM算法存在的精度和效率问题,提出基于PSO智能优化算法的可靠指数计算方法。示例分析表明:基于PSO智能优化近似算法比FOSM算法更接近MonteCarlo模拟结果,是适用于人员安全疏散可靠概率计算的方法。(2)由于现有算法将参数取为理论分布,有可能造成与参数实际有效取值范围不相符,并导致人员安全疏散可靠概率计算值总是小于1。针对这一问题,考虑参数的实际取值范围,采用概率截尾分布描述不确定参数,推导出截尾分布的PDF表达式,给出了根据截尾分布PDF的随机数产生程序,提出了参数服从截尾分布时人员安全疏散可靠概率计算的MonteCarlo方法。(3)发展了可靠指数对不确定参数的敏感性分析方法,该方法在进行可靠概率计算之前,可以遴选出对结果影响较大的参数。通过分析和比较各参数的敏感性,在参数给定的取值范围内,将敏感性较小的参数视为常数(取其基准值),从而有效减少不确定参数个数,降低可靠概率计算的工作量。示例结果表明本文给出的参数敏感性分析方法是行之有效的。
There are many uncertainties in the building fire protection design process due to the duality of fire occurrence and development. As one of important aims of building fire protection design, the occupant egress safety also contains uncertainty. Many uncertain parameters are involved in the calculation of ASET (Available Safety Egress Time) and RSET (Required Safety Egress Time). Currently, uncertainties often are always ignored or handled with conservative values or safety factors in the calculation of ASET and RSET. These uncertainties can not be quantified by an effective method. To properly deal with these uncertain parameters is a key technique deserved studying, also is the basis for credibility and acceptability of the design and assessment results by people. The systematical method for uncertainty analysis of occupant safety egress in single-room building is discussed in this dissertation. The primary studies are demonstrated as following:
Occupant safety egress uncertainty analysis method based-on MonteCarlo simulation is established. Based on fire dynamics, the time prediction models associated with ASET and RSET are constructed: prediction model of the time at which hot smoke layer reach critical height (i.e. ASET) and prediction model of detection time. The uncertain parameters associated ASET and RSET are discussed. These uncertain parameters are described by probability distributions. The uncertainties of ASET and RSET were also investigated by MonteCarlo simulation technique. The results of the case study demonstrate that it works well in analyzing the uncertainty of occupant safety egress.
We developed the parameter sensitivity analysis method of occupant safety egress. To reduce the amount of uncertain parameters and decrease uncertainty analysis workload, and guarantee the precision of uncertainty analysis at the same time, we utilized the single-factor sensitivity analysis method to investigate sensitivity of individual parameter at the specific benchmark value. Based on the results of sensitivity analysis, the parameters with lower sensitivity were treated as constants. Then, the uncertainty analysis was carried out. A case study is presented, firstly, the uncertainty of ASET and RSET are studied respectively with all uncertain parameters considered. Then, the parameter sensitivities were analyzed by the sensitivity method reported by us. Thus the primary uncertain parameters with higher sensitivity can be found out. We investigated how they affected ASET/RSET through increasing the number of them. When all the primary uncertain parameters are considered, the calculated results were consistent with that when all the uncertain parameters were considered. It suggested that the method of occupant safety egress parameter sensitivity is correct and efficient.
The reliability analysis model was established, which mainly includes: (1) using reliable probability (reliability index) as a measure to describe the safety level of occupant egress under building fire. The principle of occupant safety egress reliability analysis is introduced here, and the reliability is consequently deduced. Aiming at the defects of FOSM calculation method in accuracy and efficiency, this dissertation presents a reliability index calculation method based on PSO optimization method. (2) For present researches, the distributions of parameters are assumed as theoretical distribution, which might be inconsistent with the actual range of parameter in reality. Moreover, the reliability of egress is always less than 1. Aiming at this problem, this dissertation adopts truncated probabilistic distribution to describe the uncertain parameters with considering actual ranges of parameters, and the probability density function (PDF) of truncated probabilistic distribution was thus deduced. We present the random numbers generation method based on the PDF of truncated probabilistic distribution and establish occupant egress reliability Monte- Carlo calculation method for the case that the parameters follow truncated probabilistic distributions. (3) The sensitivity analysis method of reliability index to uncertain parameter was established, which can be used to find the parameters with more significance before calculation of reliability index by comparing the sensitivities of parameters. The parameters with smaller sensitivities can be treated as constants (benchmark value), which can effectively reduce the number of uncertain parameters and decrease calculation load during the uncertainty analysis. A case study was presented. The results demonstrate that the parameter sensitivity analysis method is effective and practicable.
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[1]陈太聪.结构工程自适应控制的参数分析新方法研究及其在大跨度斜拉桥施工中的应用[D].华南理工大学博士论文.2003,34-35
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[43]《民用建筑防排烟技术规程》,DGJ08-88-2000
[44]Rochan R.Upadhyay,Ofodike A.Ezekoye.Treatment of design fire uncertainty using quadrature method of moments,Fire Safety Journal,Vol.43,No.2,2008:127-139
[1]陈太聪.结构工程自适应控制的参数分析新方法研究及其在大跨度斜拉桥施工中的应用[D].华南理工大学博士论文.2003,34-35
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[1]Magnusson,S.E,Frantzich,H,Karlsson,B.and Sardqvist,S.,Determination of Safety Factors in Design Based on Performance,Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Fire Safety Science,1994,Gaithersburg,pp.937-948
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[4]Cornell C A,Structural Safety Specification Based on Second-Moment Reliability,Proceedings of Symposium on Concepts of Safety and Methods of Design,International Association of Bridge and Structural.Engineering,1969,Zurich,pp.235-245
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[9]Wang Jinhui,Lu Shouxiang,Zhang Xuelin.Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Evacuation under Building Fire Based on Particle Swarm Optimization Method.Progress in Safety Science and Technology,Changsha,China,Oct.24-27,2006,390-393
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