“二重开放”与中国制造业区域集聚：理论与实证
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摘要
制造业区域集聚是近年学术研究的一个热点问题,研究的重心在于寻找制造业区域集聚的动因。在众多的研究中,开放与制造业区域集聚的关系,属于一个重要论题。值得注意的是,几乎所有的研究都主要关注了对外开放或国际开放对制造业区域集聚的作用,而忽略了区域之间的开放或区际开放的影响,更鲜有将对外开放与区际开放作为平行的开放变量来提出问题的。本文的宗旨就是在对外开放和区际开放同时兼顾的框架下,从理论和实证两个层面研究“二重开放”与制造业区域集聚之间的内在联系。
理论方面,本文在总揽国内外现有研究文献的基础上,分别梳理出对外开放和区际开放促进制造业区域集聚的机理机制。其中,对外开放与制造业区域集聚之间的传导机制可以归纳为对外贸易机制、外商直接投资机制和对外直接投资机制,区际开放与制造业区域集聚之间的传导机制可以归纳为商品流动机制、资本流动机制和劳动力流动机制。在此基础上,针对中国作为转型经济所特有的“先国际化后区际化”的区域开放路径,构建了一个综合分析框架和理论模型,用于分析二重开放对中国制造业区域集聚动态变化趋势的影响,由此揭示出中国在转型初期未有国内市场情形下的制造业集聚,以及后来在重建国内市场中的制造业集聚发展路径。综合分析框架和理论模型的基本思想是,对外开放导致了制造业在东部地区集聚,之后的区际开放发展会在东部地区集聚经济的影响下,通过商品、资本和劳动力流动机制进一步强化这种制造业集聚格局。从长期来看,如果引入导致制造业集聚分散的离心力,那么二重开放与中国制造业区域集聚之间将呈现出一种倒U型的非线性关系:即随着对外开放和区际开放程度的提高,制造业区域集聚表现为先上升后下降的趋向。
实证方面,本文首先依据中国区域经济开放重心的变化顺序,分别从计划经济时期、对外开放主导时期和二重开放时期三个阶段切入,对比考察了每一阶段下制造业空间分布模式及其特征。得出结论:计划经济时期的制造业空间分布呈现出“遍地开花”的局面;对外开放主导时期的制造业空间分布格局演变为以东部地区为中心的集聚模式;二重开放背景下的制造业空间分布延续了对外开放主导时期的格局,制造业区域集聚程度进一步提高。
接着是二重开放与中国制造业区域集聚之间内在联系的实证检验。通过构建对外开放综合指标和区际开放综合指标,本文测算了中国区域经济的二重开放程度。在此基础上,分四个层面对二重开放与中国制造业区域集聚之间的内在联系展开研究。一是从相关性角度考察二重开放与制造业区域集聚的联系:无论是对外开放、区际开放和制造业区域集聚的现实数据列表还是在此基础上的相关图分析,都较为清晰地表明制造业区域集聚与二重开放之间存在较高的相关性。二是从总体上对影响制造业区域集聚诸因素之中的二重开放因素进行检验:结果显示对外开放和区际开放之制造业区域集聚效应都非常显著。三是根据中国先国际化后区际化的区域开放路径,将总体样本分为入世前和入世后两个子样本的拓展回归:分析表明对外开放和区际开放之制造业区域集聚效应在这两个时期存在明显差异。具体说,入世前,对外开放对制造业区域集聚起到了主导作用;入世后,区际开放之制造业区域集聚效应超过了对外开放。这一结果为前面综合分析框架和理论模型所得出的推论提供了更可靠的实证支持。四是探讨二重开放与制造业区域集聚的非线性关系:检验表明,由于中国目前的制造业集聚程度不高,所以二重开放程度的提高不会带来集聚的再分散,反而会推动制造业集聚程度进一步地上升。上述四个层面的实证考察互为补充,从不同角度证明二重开放与中国制造业区域集聚之间,的确存在明确而肯定的联系。
最后,在本文研究结果的基础上,指出今后值得研究的方向,并按照科学发展观的精神,从二重开放视角切入,提出一些促进区域经济协调发展的政策建议。
Manufacturing agglomeration has received much attention from recent academic research which focuses on the elements identification. Among many studies, the relationship between the opening up and the manufacturing agglomeration is an important topic. However the foregone studies only pay attention to the impact of the international opening up on the manufacturing agglomeration instead of the interregional opening up or both. This thesis attempts to analyze the internal relationship between the "dual opening up" and manufacturing agglomeration theoretically and empirically under the framework covering the international opening up and the interregional opening up.
In theory, this thesis provides mechanisms through which the international opening up and the interregional opening up promote the manufacturing agglomeration based on present literature. In particular, the international opening up promotes the manufacturing agglomeration mainly through export mechanism, foreighn direct investment mechanism and outward direct investment mechanism. The interregional opening up promotes the manufacturing agglomeration mainly through commodity mobility mechanism, capital mobility mechanism and labor mobility mechanism. Based on the special regional opening-up route in China, this thesis constructs an analytic framework and model concerning the dual opening up and manufacturing agglomeration, which can be used to analyze the impact of the dual opening up on the dynamic changes of the manufacturing agglomeration in China. The framework and model show that the international opening up results in the manufacturing agglomeration in China and the interregional opening up would reinforce such agglomeration mode through the commodity, capital and labor mechanisms. In the long run, the relationship between the dual opening up and the Chinese manufacturing agglomeration is an inverted-U shape. That is, with the increase of the international and interregional opening up, the manufacturing agglomeration would increase first and then decrease.
Empirically, based on the changes in the emphasis of the dual opening up of regional economies, this thesis firstly examines the mode and characteristics of the manufacturing spatial distribution from three stages, that is, central planning stage, international opening up stage and the dual opening up stage. The results show that the manufacturing distribution in the central planning stage appears to be scatter. However such distribution has changed into agglomeration during the international opening up stage. And the manufacturing agglomeration continues to increase during the dual opening up stage.
Then this thesis examines the relationship between the dual opening up and manufacturing agglomeration in China empirically. By constructing the composed indexes of international and interregional opening up, this thesis analyzes the extent of provincial international and interregional opening up in China. After that, the empirical checking of the relationship between the dual opening up and the manufacturing agglomeration focuses on four levels successively. The first level is the general connection between the dual opening up and manufacturing agglomeration, which has been identified by the data analysis and the correlation analysis. The second level is the dual opening up element in all pro-agglomeration factors, which has been proved by the econometric analysis. The third level is the difference of the dual opening up effects in different stages. The results show that the international opening up has more impact on the manufacturing agglomeration than the interregional opening up before WTO and the interregional opening up has more impact on the manufacturing agglomeration than the international opening up after WTO. The fourth level is the nonlinear relationship between the dual opening up and manufacturing agglomeration in China. The results show that the dual opening up will increase the manufacturing agglomeration further instead of decreasing it, since the extent of the Chinese manufacturing agglomeration is not high. After all, the four level checkings above provide evidences for the relationship between the dual opening up and manufacturing agglomeration in China.
Finally, this thesis provides the directions for the future research. And according to the scientific development view, it also gives some policy implications on the coordination of regional economies from the dual opening-up perspectives.
理论方面,本文在总揽国内外现有研究文献的基础上,分别梳理出对外开放和区际开放促进制造业区域集聚的机理机制。其中,对外开放与制造业区域集聚之间的传导机制可以归纳为对外贸易机制、外商直接投资机制和对外直接投资机制,区际开放与制造业区域集聚之间的传导机制可以归纳为商品流动机制、资本流动机制和劳动力流动机制。在此基础上,针对中国作为转型经济所特有的“先国际化后区际化”的区域开放路径,构建了一个综合分析框架和理论模型,用于分析二重开放对中国制造业区域集聚动态变化趋势的影响,由此揭示出中国在转型初期未有国内市场情形下的制造业集聚,以及后来在重建国内市场中的制造业集聚发展路径。综合分析框架和理论模型的基本思想是,对外开放导致了制造业在东部地区集聚,之后的区际开放发展会在东部地区集聚经济的影响下,通过商品、资本和劳动力流动机制进一步强化这种制造业集聚格局。从长期来看,如果引入导致制造业集聚分散的离心力,那么二重开放与中国制造业区域集聚之间将呈现出一种倒U型的非线性关系:即随着对外开放和区际开放程度的提高,制造业区域集聚表现为先上升后下降的趋向。
实证方面,本文首先依据中国区域经济开放重心的变化顺序,分别从计划经济时期、对外开放主导时期和二重开放时期三个阶段切入,对比考察了每一阶段下制造业空间分布模式及其特征。得出结论:计划经济时期的制造业空间分布呈现出“遍地开花”的局面;对外开放主导时期的制造业空间分布格局演变为以东部地区为中心的集聚模式;二重开放背景下的制造业空间分布延续了对外开放主导时期的格局,制造业区域集聚程度进一步提高。
接着是二重开放与中国制造业区域集聚之间内在联系的实证检验。通过构建对外开放综合指标和区际开放综合指标,本文测算了中国区域经济的二重开放程度。在此基础上,分四个层面对二重开放与中国制造业区域集聚之间的内在联系展开研究。一是从相关性角度考察二重开放与制造业区域集聚的联系:无论是对外开放、区际开放和制造业区域集聚的现实数据列表还是在此基础上的相关图分析,都较为清晰地表明制造业区域集聚与二重开放之间存在较高的相关性。二是从总体上对影响制造业区域集聚诸因素之中的二重开放因素进行检验:结果显示对外开放和区际开放之制造业区域集聚效应都非常显著。三是根据中国先国际化后区际化的区域开放路径,将总体样本分为入世前和入世后两个子样本的拓展回归:分析表明对外开放和区际开放之制造业区域集聚效应在这两个时期存在明显差异。具体说,入世前,对外开放对制造业区域集聚起到了主导作用;入世后,区际开放之制造业区域集聚效应超过了对外开放。这一结果为前面综合分析框架和理论模型所得出的推论提供了更可靠的实证支持。四是探讨二重开放与制造业区域集聚的非线性关系:检验表明,由于中国目前的制造业集聚程度不高,所以二重开放程度的提高不会带来集聚的再分散,反而会推动制造业集聚程度进一步地上升。上述四个层面的实证考察互为补充,从不同角度证明二重开放与中国制造业区域集聚之间,的确存在明确而肯定的联系。
最后,在本文研究结果的基础上,指出今后值得研究的方向,并按照科学发展观的精神,从二重开放视角切入,提出一些促进区域经济协调发展的政策建议。
Manufacturing agglomeration has received much attention from recent academic research which focuses on the elements identification. Among many studies, the relationship between the opening up and the manufacturing agglomeration is an important topic. However the foregone studies only pay attention to the impact of the international opening up on the manufacturing agglomeration instead of the interregional opening up or both. This thesis attempts to analyze the internal relationship between the "dual opening up" and manufacturing agglomeration theoretically and empirically under the framework covering the international opening up and the interregional opening up.
In theory, this thesis provides mechanisms through which the international opening up and the interregional opening up promote the manufacturing agglomeration based on present literature. In particular, the international opening up promotes the manufacturing agglomeration mainly through export mechanism, foreighn direct investment mechanism and outward direct investment mechanism. The interregional opening up promotes the manufacturing agglomeration mainly through commodity mobility mechanism, capital mobility mechanism and labor mobility mechanism. Based on the special regional opening-up route in China, this thesis constructs an analytic framework and model concerning the dual opening up and manufacturing agglomeration, which can be used to analyze the impact of the dual opening up on the dynamic changes of the manufacturing agglomeration in China. The framework and model show that the international opening up results in the manufacturing agglomeration in China and the interregional opening up would reinforce such agglomeration mode through the commodity, capital and labor mechanisms. In the long run, the relationship between the dual opening up and the Chinese manufacturing agglomeration is an inverted-U shape. That is, with the increase of the international and interregional opening up, the manufacturing agglomeration would increase first and then decrease.
Empirically, based on the changes in the emphasis of the dual opening up of regional economies, this thesis firstly examines the mode and characteristics of the manufacturing spatial distribution from three stages, that is, central planning stage, international opening up stage and the dual opening up stage. The results show that the manufacturing distribution in the central planning stage appears to be scatter. However such distribution has changed into agglomeration during the international opening up stage. And the manufacturing agglomeration continues to increase during the dual opening up stage.
Then this thesis examines the relationship between the dual opening up and manufacturing agglomeration in China empirically. By constructing the composed indexes of international and interregional opening up, this thesis analyzes the extent of provincial international and interregional opening up in China. After that, the empirical checking of the relationship between the dual opening up and the manufacturing agglomeration focuses on four levels successively. The first level is the general connection between the dual opening up and manufacturing agglomeration, which has been identified by the data analysis and the correlation analysis. The second level is the dual opening up element in all pro-agglomeration factors, which has been proved by the econometric analysis. The third level is the difference of the dual opening up effects in different stages. The results show that the international opening up has more impact on the manufacturing agglomeration than the interregional opening up before WTO and the interregional opening up has more impact on the manufacturing agglomeration than the international opening up after WTO. The fourth level is the nonlinear relationship between the dual opening up and manufacturing agglomeration in China. The results show that the dual opening up will increase the manufacturing agglomeration further instead of decreasing it, since the extent of the Chinese manufacturing agglomeration is not high. After all, the four level checkings above provide evidences for the relationship between the dual opening up and manufacturing agglomeration in China.
Finally, this thesis provides the directions for the future research. And according to the scientific development view, it also gives some policy implications on the coordination of regional economies from the dual opening-up perspectives.
引文
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