中国能源效率问题研究
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摘要
提高能源效率是破解当前中国经济发展中面临的能源紧缺与环境污染两大困境的必经之路。研究中国的能源效率问题,需要解决以下三个主要问题:“什么是能源效率”、“中国的能源效率怎样”以及“哪些因素影响能源效率”。
本论文即是一个受上述“问题驱动”的实证分析。通过运用经济增长理论、生产率理论、环境经济理论等知识,利用非参数DEA方法构建出全要素框架下的能源效率模型,根据不同层面数据,对中国及各地区的能源效率进行评价,并借助计量模型对能源效率差异进行解释,以寻求能源效率背后诸多影响因素的影响机制、路径、方向和大小,从而为当前我国的节能减排实践提供一定启示。
“为什么要研究中国的能源效率问题?”——在第一章中,从中国能源的供给、需求、利用以及环境污染四个层面,刻画出当前我国为实现可持续发展所面临的巨大困境与挑战,从而引出能源效率研究的重要性、必要性与本论文研究的动机,同时介绍了本论文采用的技术路线图与研究基本框架。
“什么是能源效率?如何测度能源效率?”——为了明确界定能源效率概念,首先在第二章对以往研究进行梳理与概括,沿着单要素能源生产率框架和多要素生产率框架两条主线,对不同的概念、定义、研究方法与结果进行述评,并总结了当前的研究缺陷及未来有待深入的方向。接着,在第三章中定义了本论文将要采用的基于DEA方法的全要素能源技术效率模型、全要素能源经济效率模型和全要素能源相对效率模型。
“在国际上,中国的能源效率水平怎样?为什么?”——为了搞清楚中国能源效率在国际上究竟处于怎样的地位与水平,第四章对此进行了详尽的研究,通过利用1980-2003年间全球96个国家(地区)的投入产出数据,发现了中国的全要素能源技术效率非常落后,其中的一个重要原因在于中国的规模效率低下,而规模效率低下的根本原因在于:财政分权制度所导致的地方竞争与市场分割,以及工业化过程中过度的资本深化。此外,在第五章中,额外考虑了投入要素的价格信息,利用35个国家1998-2003年的数据对全要素能源经济效率进行考察,发现了中国能源效率低下的另一个重要原因在于:要素的配置效率低下,而配置效率较低的主要原因是由于我国能源相对价格较低所致。
“我国各地区的能源效率是否有差异?为什么?”——为了考察我国不同地区的能源效率是否存在差异性,第六章对此进行了深入分析,利用省级面板数据对1995-2007年间的全要素能源相对效率进行了评价,发现东、中、西部地区存在着巨大的能源效率差异,而产业结构、产权制度、资本深化、能源结构等因素都能够用于解释能源效率的地区差异性。为了进一步控制住地区差异性,在第七章中选择了浙江省,以浙江省内11市的工业经济为研究对象,评价这些地区在1999-2006年间的工业能源效率,发现地区工业经济的规模大小、技术水平、外资引入程度、信息化程度等因素也能够解释能源效率的地区间差异。
“我国能否实现节能减排目标?代价有多大?”——第八章对我国节能减排目标的可行性进行了深入探讨,利用2005-2007年中国29省的要素投入、经济产出和污染物数据,对各地区的节能潜力与减排潜力进行了评价,并加总为全国的节能潜力与减排潜力,在情景分析中发现,即使以“实现10%的节能、减排潜力”来计算,节能减排约束性目标也是可以实现的。此外,对于节能减排的经济代价进行了估算,发现其潜在产出损失约为实际产出的0.36%左右,是完全可以承受的。
It's a key step to improve China's energy efficiency to cope with the seriously energy shortage and environmental issue. However, it's necessary to answer the following three essential questions: "what's energy efficiency?" "How about China's energy efficiency?" and "what's the driving forces behind the energy efficiency?"
This dissertation is an empirical analysis driven by practical problem. Combined with the economic growth theory, productivity theory and environmental economic theory, the energy efficiency model under total-factor productivity framework is constructed by the non-parametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). This indicator can be used to evaluate the relative utilization efficiency score during the production process for different Decision Making Units (DMU). Then the econometric model which incorporates explanation variables can be employed to measure each one's contribution to the diversity of the energy efficiency.
Chapter 2 & 3 are aim to answer "what is energy efficiency". Plenty of literatures are reviewed in the light of the evolvement from single-factor productivity to total-factor productivity framework in Chapter 2. To conquer that shortage of energy productivity indicators in previous studies, three energy efficiency models under total-factor productivity framework are established in Chapter 3 to be used in the followed parts.
Is China's energy efficiency high or low? And why? That is the main purpose of Chapter 4. By using the input and output dataset cross 96 countries from 1980 to 2003, each country's total-factor energy technical efficiency score is measured and the international comparison indicated that China lags behind most of other countries. One main reason for China's energy inefficiency is the scale inefficiency in the national wide, which result from the regional competition and market segmentation under the arrangement of decentralized fiscal institution, as well as the excessive capital deepening during the process of industrialization. Moreover, to investigate the role of allocation efficiency, a special dataset which incorporate the price/cost information cross 35 countries from 1998 to 2003 is employed in Chapter 5. The evaluation of total-factor energy economic efficiency for each country also confirms that China's energy inefficiency; however the allocation inefficiency, which results from the lower price for energy product in China, is another reason for China's energy inefficiency.
Is there great difference of energy efficiency among different regions in China? And why? Chapter 6 is aim at this issue to study the provincial energy efficiency. A panel data cross 29 provinces from 1995 to 2007 is used to assess the total-factor energy relative efficiency. The comparison result shows that the East region, which includes the most developed provinces, is most efficient, the West region, which involves the most undeveloped provinces, lags behind the East and Middle region. The differences of industrial structure, property assignment, capital per labor, as well as energy structure are the driving force behind the regional energy efficiency difference. In addition, to control the great geographical impact, the Chapter 7 choose the Zhejiang province to study the determinant factors of the energy efficiency, the empirical analysis for 11 cities from 1999 to 2006 suggest that the scale of industrial sector , technology level , variation of foreign investment and ICT also exert great influence on the energy efficiency.
Furthermore, the Chapter 8 studies the feasibility of China's energy conservation & emission reduction target and the possible output loss. Based on the input, GDP and industrial SO_2 emission data cross 29 provinces from 2005 to 2007, the energy conservation potential and the emission reduction potential for each province are estimated and aggregate to the national wide level, the scenario analysis indicate that even 10% of energy conservation & emission reduction potential is accomplished, the mandatory target in the "eleventh five-year planning" can be achieved. In the meanwhile, the estimation of potential output loss is about 0.36% of real output, which is affordable for China's growth.
本论文即是一个受上述“问题驱动”的实证分析。通过运用经济增长理论、生产率理论、环境经济理论等知识,利用非参数DEA方法构建出全要素框架下的能源效率模型,根据不同层面数据,对中国及各地区的能源效率进行评价,并借助计量模型对能源效率差异进行解释,以寻求能源效率背后诸多影响因素的影响机制、路径、方向和大小,从而为当前我国的节能减排实践提供一定启示。
“为什么要研究中国的能源效率问题?”——在第一章中,从中国能源的供给、需求、利用以及环境污染四个层面,刻画出当前我国为实现可持续发展所面临的巨大困境与挑战,从而引出能源效率研究的重要性、必要性与本论文研究的动机,同时介绍了本论文采用的技术路线图与研究基本框架。
“什么是能源效率?如何测度能源效率?”——为了明确界定能源效率概念,首先在第二章对以往研究进行梳理与概括,沿着单要素能源生产率框架和多要素生产率框架两条主线,对不同的概念、定义、研究方法与结果进行述评,并总结了当前的研究缺陷及未来有待深入的方向。接着,在第三章中定义了本论文将要采用的基于DEA方法的全要素能源技术效率模型、全要素能源经济效率模型和全要素能源相对效率模型。
“在国际上,中国的能源效率水平怎样?为什么?”——为了搞清楚中国能源效率在国际上究竟处于怎样的地位与水平,第四章对此进行了详尽的研究,通过利用1980-2003年间全球96个国家(地区)的投入产出数据,发现了中国的全要素能源技术效率非常落后,其中的一个重要原因在于中国的规模效率低下,而规模效率低下的根本原因在于:财政分权制度所导致的地方竞争与市场分割,以及工业化过程中过度的资本深化。此外,在第五章中,额外考虑了投入要素的价格信息,利用35个国家1998-2003年的数据对全要素能源经济效率进行考察,发现了中国能源效率低下的另一个重要原因在于:要素的配置效率低下,而配置效率较低的主要原因是由于我国能源相对价格较低所致。
“我国各地区的能源效率是否有差异?为什么?”——为了考察我国不同地区的能源效率是否存在差异性,第六章对此进行了深入分析,利用省级面板数据对1995-2007年间的全要素能源相对效率进行了评价,发现东、中、西部地区存在着巨大的能源效率差异,而产业结构、产权制度、资本深化、能源结构等因素都能够用于解释能源效率的地区差异性。为了进一步控制住地区差异性,在第七章中选择了浙江省,以浙江省内11市的工业经济为研究对象,评价这些地区在1999-2006年间的工业能源效率,发现地区工业经济的规模大小、技术水平、外资引入程度、信息化程度等因素也能够解释能源效率的地区间差异。
“我国能否实现节能减排目标?代价有多大?”——第八章对我国节能减排目标的可行性进行了深入探讨,利用2005-2007年中国29省的要素投入、经济产出和污染物数据,对各地区的节能潜力与减排潜力进行了评价,并加总为全国的节能潜力与减排潜力,在情景分析中发现,即使以“实现10%的节能、减排潜力”来计算,节能减排约束性目标也是可以实现的。此外,对于节能减排的经济代价进行了估算,发现其潜在产出损失约为实际产出的0.36%左右,是完全可以承受的。
It's a key step to improve China's energy efficiency to cope with the seriously energy shortage and environmental issue. However, it's necessary to answer the following three essential questions: "what's energy efficiency?" "How about China's energy efficiency?" and "what's the driving forces behind the energy efficiency?"
This dissertation is an empirical analysis driven by practical problem. Combined with the economic growth theory, productivity theory and environmental economic theory, the energy efficiency model under total-factor productivity framework is constructed by the non-parametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). This indicator can be used to evaluate the relative utilization efficiency score during the production process for different Decision Making Units (DMU). Then the econometric model which incorporates explanation variables can be employed to measure each one's contribution to the diversity of the energy efficiency.
Chapter 2 & 3 are aim to answer "what is energy efficiency". Plenty of literatures are reviewed in the light of the evolvement from single-factor productivity to total-factor productivity framework in Chapter 2. To conquer that shortage of energy productivity indicators in previous studies, three energy efficiency models under total-factor productivity framework are established in Chapter 3 to be used in the followed parts.
Is China's energy efficiency high or low? And why? That is the main purpose of Chapter 4. By using the input and output dataset cross 96 countries from 1980 to 2003, each country's total-factor energy technical efficiency score is measured and the international comparison indicated that China lags behind most of other countries. One main reason for China's energy inefficiency is the scale inefficiency in the national wide, which result from the regional competition and market segmentation under the arrangement of decentralized fiscal institution, as well as the excessive capital deepening during the process of industrialization. Moreover, to investigate the role of allocation efficiency, a special dataset which incorporate the price/cost information cross 35 countries from 1998 to 2003 is employed in Chapter 5. The evaluation of total-factor energy economic efficiency for each country also confirms that China's energy inefficiency; however the allocation inefficiency, which results from the lower price for energy product in China, is another reason for China's energy inefficiency.
Is there great difference of energy efficiency among different regions in China? And why? Chapter 6 is aim at this issue to study the provincial energy efficiency. A panel data cross 29 provinces from 1995 to 2007 is used to assess the total-factor energy relative efficiency. The comparison result shows that the East region, which includes the most developed provinces, is most efficient, the West region, which involves the most undeveloped provinces, lags behind the East and Middle region. The differences of industrial structure, property assignment, capital per labor, as well as energy structure are the driving force behind the regional energy efficiency difference. In addition, to control the great geographical impact, the Chapter 7 choose the Zhejiang province to study the determinant factors of the energy efficiency, the empirical analysis for 11 cities from 1999 to 2006 suggest that the scale of industrial sector , technology level , variation of foreign investment and ICT also exert great influence on the energy efficiency.
Furthermore, the Chapter 8 studies the feasibility of China's energy conservation & emission reduction target and the possible output loss. Based on the input, GDP and industrial SO_2 emission data cross 29 provinces from 2005 to 2007, the energy conservation potential and the emission reduction potential for each province are estimated and aggregate to the national wide level, the scenario analysis indicate that even 10% of energy conservation & emission reduction potential is accomplished, the mandatory target in the "eleventh five-year planning" can be achieved. In the meanwhile, the estimation of potential output loss is about 0.36% of real output, which is affordable for China's growth.
引文
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