江苏省经济、能源与环境系统（3E）协调与可持续发展研究
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摘要
现阶段江苏省经济高速增长很大程度上依赖于能源要素投入。加强能源系统、环境系统和经济系统的综合决策,实现能源消费、环境保护和经济发展的共赢是经济可持续发展所面临的、必须解决的问题。因此,基于“十一五”规划的江苏省经济、能源与环境系统协调与可持续发展研究是一个值得研究的课题。本文研究有以下几个内容:
(1)江苏省经济、能源与环境系统的相关性分析。首先,从生产要素角度分析江苏省GDP与生产要素之间的相关性;其次,从生产要素效率角度分析全员劳动生产率、固定资产投资效率以及能源强度之间的相关性;最后从能源消费种类角度分析各种环境污染物排放量与各种能源消费量之间的矩阵相关性。
(2)江苏省经济系统分析。首先,分析江苏省全员劳动生产率的影响因素的效应,建立人均GDP增长率测算模型预测江苏省经济增长率并分析其影响因素的效应;其次,分析江苏省固定资本投资效率的影响因素:最后,建立了全要素生产率分析模型研究技术进步对经济增长的贡献。
(3)江苏省能源系统分析。首先,建立混沌系统动力学模型预测江苏省能源生产量,并分析江苏省能源固定资产投资效益;其次,建立能源强度下降率测算模型分析江苏省能源强度下降率及其影响因素的效应;再次,构建能源消费的经济损失估算模型估计能源消费带来的经济损失;最后,建立能源消费节约测量与评价模型分析江苏省能源消费增长率和产出增长率的影响。
(4)江苏省环境系统分析。首先,验证江苏省环境库兹涅茨曲线假说并据此预测有关污染物排放量;其次,分析江苏省环境污染治理投资的现状并提出若干建议;最后,利用系统动力学模型分析企业生产方式与污染物排放的关系。
(5)江苏省经济、能源与环境系统协调与可持续发展综合评价。
Presently,high economic devlopment of Jiangsu Province depends to a large extent on energy consumption.How to coordinate synthetic decision-making of energy system, environmental system and economic system and achieve win-win of energy consumption, environment protection and economic growth is a major problem in economic sustainable development.Therefore,based on the 11~(th) Plan of Jiangsu Province,coordination of economic,energy system and environmental system and sustainable development is a research project worthy of being probed.The research is composed of the following:
(1) Correlative ananlyses of economic system,energy system and environmental system of Jiangsu Province.Firstly,from the aspect of productive factors,the correlative analyses of gross domestic product,capital and labour of Jiangsu Province are provided. Secondly,from the aspect of efficiency of productive factors,the correlative analyses of overall labor productivity,fixed assets investment efficiency and energy intensity are also provided.Finally,matrix correlativity between the pollutants and energy consumption are provided from the aspect of kinds of energy consumption.
(2) Analyses of the economic system of Jiangsu Province.Firstly,the effect of influencial factors of overall labor productivity of Jiangsu Province is analysed by using the method of index decomposition.Secondly,influencial factors of fixed assets investment efficiency of Jiangsu Province are measured.Furthmore,the influence factor effect of fixed capital investment efficiency of Jiangsu are analysed.Finally,a total factor productivity analysis model is established to analyse the contribution to economic growth from technological progress.
(3) Analyses of energy system of Jiangsu Province.Firstly,a chaotic system dynamics model of energy production is established to forecast the energy production of Jiangsu Province and the benefit from energy fixed asset investment is also analysed. Secondly,a measuring model of declining rate of the total energy intensity is established to forecast the declining rate of the total energy intensity of Jiangsu Province and the declining rate of the total energy intensity and the effect of influencial factors is also analysed.Furthmore,an economic losses estimate model is established to estimate economic losses resulting from energy consumption.Finally,a model for measuring and appraisal of energy saving is established to analyse the impact of the growth rate of energy consumption of Jiangsu Province and that of outputs.
(4) Analyses of environmental system of Jiangsu Province.The hypothesis of environmental Kuznets curve of Jiangsu Province is verified,thus the discharges of pollutants can be predicted.Secondly,the current situation on environmental protection investment of Jiangsu Province is analysed and suggestions are also provided.Finally,a system dynamics model is established to analyse the relationship between production modes and pollutants discharging.
(5) A comprehensive evaluation of coordination and sustainable development of economic,energy system and environmental system of Jiangsu Province is carried out.
(1)江苏省经济、能源与环境系统的相关性分析。首先,从生产要素角度分析江苏省GDP与生产要素之间的相关性;其次,从生产要素效率角度分析全员劳动生产率、固定资产投资效率以及能源强度之间的相关性;最后从能源消费种类角度分析各种环境污染物排放量与各种能源消费量之间的矩阵相关性。
(2)江苏省经济系统分析。首先,分析江苏省全员劳动生产率的影响因素的效应,建立人均GDP增长率测算模型预测江苏省经济增长率并分析其影响因素的效应;其次,分析江苏省固定资本投资效率的影响因素:最后,建立了全要素生产率分析模型研究技术进步对经济增长的贡献。
(3)江苏省能源系统分析。首先,建立混沌系统动力学模型预测江苏省能源生产量,并分析江苏省能源固定资产投资效益;其次,建立能源强度下降率测算模型分析江苏省能源强度下降率及其影响因素的效应;再次,构建能源消费的经济损失估算模型估计能源消费带来的经济损失;最后,建立能源消费节约测量与评价模型分析江苏省能源消费增长率和产出增长率的影响。
(4)江苏省环境系统分析。首先,验证江苏省环境库兹涅茨曲线假说并据此预测有关污染物排放量;其次,分析江苏省环境污染治理投资的现状并提出若干建议;最后,利用系统动力学模型分析企业生产方式与污染物排放的关系。
(5)江苏省经济、能源与环境系统协调与可持续发展综合评价。
Presently,high economic devlopment of Jiangsu Province depends to a large extent on energy consumption.How to coordinate synthetic decision-making of energy system, environmental system and economic system and achieve win-win of energy consumption, environment protection and economic growth is a major problem in economic sustainable development.Therefore,based on the 11~(th) Plan of Jiangsu Province,coordination of economic,energy system and environmental system and sustainable development is a research project worthy of being probed.The research is composed of the following:
(1) Correlative ananlyses of economic system,energy system and environmental system of Jiangsu Province.Firstly,from the aspect of productive factors,the correlative analyses of gross domestic product,capital and labour of Jiangsu Province are provided. Secondly,from the aspect of efficiency of productive factors,the correlative analyses of overall labor productivity,fixed assets investment efficiency and energy intensity are also provided.Finally,matrix correlativity between the pollutants and energy consumption are provided from the aspect of kinds of energy consumption.
(2) Analyses of the economic system of Jiangsu Province.Firstly,the effect of influencial factors of overall labor productivity of Jiangsu Province is analysed by using the method of index decomposition.Secondly,influencial factors of fixed assets investment efficiency of Jiangsu Province are measured.Furthmore,the influence factor effect of fixed capital investment efficiency of Jiangsu are analysed.Finally,a total factor productivity analysis model is established to analyse the contribution to economic growth from technological progress.
(3) Analyses of energy system of Jiangsu Province.Firstly,a chaotic system dynamics model of energy production is established to forecast the energy production of Jiangsu Province and the benefit from energy fixed asset investment is also analysed. Secondly,a measuring model of declining rate of the total energy intensity is established to forecast the declining rate of the total energy intensity of Jiangsu Province and the declining rate of the total energy intensity and the effect of influencial factors is also analysed.Furthmore,an economic losses estimate model is established to estimate economic losses resulting from energy consumption.Finally,a model for measuring and appraisal of energy saving is established to analyse the impact of the growth rate of energy consumption of Jiangsu Province and that of outputs.
(4) Analyses of environmental system of Jiangsu Province.The hypothesis of environmental Kuznets curve of Jiangsu Province is verified,thus the discharges of pollutants can be predicted.Secondly,the current situation on environmental protection investment of Jiangsu Province is analysed and suggestions are also provided.Finally,a system dynamics model is established to analyse the relationship between production modes and pollutants discharging.
(5) A comprehensive evaluation of coordination and sustainable development of economic,energy system and environmental system of Jiangsu Province is carried out.
引文
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