市场环境下电力系统可靠性分析若干问题研究
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摘要
随着全球经济的持续增长,大电网向着远距离、超高压甚至特高压方向发展,网络规模日益庞大,结构日益复杂。尤其是随着电力市场化改革的推进,电力系统运行过程中的安全风险和市场风险相互交织、相互影响,研究市场中电力系统运行可靠性的新问题已经成为该领域的研究热点。因此,本文就市场环境下电力系统可靠性评估中的几个问题进行了探讨,所做的主要工作有:
(1)探讨了交直流并联系统的可靠性评估的特殊性以及研究进展,并针对建立直流故障状态模型难的问题,通过两条交流线路来等效一条直流线路,将交直流系统等效为纯交流系统,利用交流线路的故障来模拟直流系统的单极停运和双极停运,然后基于快速高斯潮流法和适用于中国国情的停电损失评估法对2009年丰大方式下的云南电网交直流系统进行了可靠性评估和经济性评估。
(2)在现有的发输电系统充裕性评估领域的研究中,已经存在的多种基于不同思想、不同算法的充裕性评估方法。然而,这些方法若同时用于同一系统进行充裕性评估问题时,往往会出现相互分歧的评估结果。针对这一问题,本文针对状态枚举法、非序贯蒙特卡罗法、序贯蒙特卡罗法三种方法所得的可靠性指标,利用证据理论有效综合了各种不同方法的判断结果。
(3)在电力市场环境下,安全性控制建立在成本/效益分析的基础之上,寻求安全性和经济性的平衡。故本文通过引入故障的风险值,建立考虑安全成本的最优潮流模型(OPF-SC),来协调安全性和经济性,该模型不仅考虑了电力系统约束,而且还考虑了发电机的爬坡成本和可中断负荷成本,同时引入模拟植物生长算法用于OPF-SC模型的求解。算例仿真结果表明该算法对于考虑安全成本的最优潮流问题的求解是非常有效的,对协调安全性与经济性具有重要的参考价值。
(4)由于传统无功优化模型中并未对设备动作次数和操作成本做更多的考虑,导致了设备动作频繁、设备利用率差别很大、设备损耗。为弥补以上不足,本文提出考虑设备动作成本和动作设备数的无功电压控制方法,对系统电压、网损、设备寿命和动作次数进行优化,并通过变尺度混沌法与免疫遗传法混合智能算法进行求解,通过IEEE-30系统算例仿真表明该方法是有效的和可行的。
(5)本文从实际电价曲线出发,针对条件方差函数建模,并采用非参数估计方法确定其模型。同时针对条件标准差不可测的困难,引入迭代估计算法,通过不断修正作为输入量的条件标准差估计值来提高条件方差函数的估计可信度。通过加州电力市场2000年日前电价曲线试验结果表明,文中所提模型能够更好地体现电价时间序列波动集群性这一特征,利用非参数估计所确定的模型提升了尖峰电价的预测效果。
With the development of power system and the acceleration of power system deregulation,the problem of power system reliability in the deregulated environment is turning into a hot issue in the domain.Thus,research on power grid reliability and safety is of great engineering value and practical significance.Several major issues in power system reliability analysis are presented in this dissertation.The main contents and the related conclusions of this dissertation are outlined as follows:
This paper discusses the particularity of hybrid AC/DC power system.Based on the reliability model of a bipolar HVDC system,one DC line is equivalent to two AC lines, so that an AC/DC system can be transformed to an equivalent pure AC system,and the failure of DC systems with monopolar total outage or bipolar total outage can be analyzed with the equivalent of being failure AC lines,and evaluated with suitable AC transmission reliability assessment software.Furthermore,analysis on the reliability of Yunnan power grid is carried out by using this method.
In the field of research of the existing adequacy assessment in composite system, there are already many assessment methods based on a variety of different methods. When all of the methods are used in the same issue of reliability assessment,mutual differences often arise in the assessment results.To solve this problem,the paper presents an evidential reasoning(ER) approach to adequacy assessment in composite system.It is more effective to evaluate the level of reliability factors in composite system on the basis of the Dempster-Shafer's evidence theory.It can be seen from the results that the ER approach is a suitable solution to tackle the MADM problem of adequacy assessment.
This paper presents a novel approach to solve an optimal power flow problem with embedded security cost(OPF-SC),where the major aim is to minimize the total operating cost,taking into account both operating security cost and power system constraints.In addition,OPF-SC problem includes the cost of interrupting customer load and the cost of generator ramping.The algorithm handles the objective function and constraints separately,and adopts both directional and random search mechanism.It can avoid falling into local optimal point,which may appear in previous bionics random algorithms due to uncertainness of some parameters and/or without guiding search direction.Results on systems from the specialized literature are adopted to validate the proposed approach. Numerical simulation on the five-bus power system has shown that the proposed method is efficient in solving OPF-SC problems for large-scale power systems.
In this paper,a new voltage-reactive power optimization method is introduced, which considers the equipment operational cost and confines the number of operated equipment in each optimization.This paper presents a method of reactive power optimization using the hybrid intelligent algorithm(HIA),the hybrid intelligent algorithm is applied to the IEEE 30-bus system and the computing results prove the method of reactive power optimization which is based on the Hybrid Intelligent algorithm in this paper is effective and valuable in theory and practice.
Electric price is the fulcrum controlling power trade and plays a role in price guidance of electricity market.Based on nonparametric theory for conditional heteroskedasticity function,an improved method of electricity price forecasting is proposed.On the basis of real electricity price time series,conditional variance function is modeled for stochastic volatility,and the model is determined by means of non-parametric estimation.In the nonparametric estimation process,an iterate algorithm is introduced to overcome the problem that volatility is unobserved latent variable so that the confidence of estimated conditional variance function is weak.On the study of stochastic volatility of day-ahead electricity price in Humb spot in California,the forecasting is made.And the results of test show that the proposed method has the capability of forecasting electricity prices characteristic of volatility clustering,and improves the accuracy of price spikes forecasting.
(1)探讨了交直流并联系统的可靠性评估的特殊性以及研究进展,并针对建立直流故障状态模型难的问题,通过两条交流线路来等效一条直流线路,将交直流系统等效为纯交流系统,利用交流线路的故障来模拟直流系统的单极停运和双极停运,然后基于快速高斯潮流法和适用于中国国情的停电损失评估法对2009年丰大方式下的云南电网交直流系统进行了可靠性评估和经济性评估。
(2)在现有的发输电系统充裕性评估领域的研究中,已经存在的多种基于不同思想、不同算法的充裕性评估方法。然而,这些方法若同时用于同一系统进行充裕性评估问题时,往往会出现相互分歧的评估结果。针对这一问题,本文针对状态枚举法、非序贯蒙特卡罗法、序贯蒙特卡罗法三种方法所得的可靠性指标,利用证据理论有效综合了各种不同方法的判断结果。
(3)在电力市场环境下,安全性控制建立在成本/效益分析的基础之上,寻求安全性和经济性的平衡。故本文通过引入故障的风险值,建立考虑安全成本的最优潮流模型(OPF-SC),来协调安全性和经济性,该模型不仅考虑了电力系统约束,而且还考虑了发电机的爬坡成本和可中断负荷成本,同时引入模拟植物生长算法用于OPF-SC模型的求解。算例仿真结果表明该算法对于考虑安全成本的最优潮流问题的求解是非常有效的,对协调安全性与经济性具有重要的参考价值。
(4)由于传统无功优化模型中并未对设备动作次数和操作成本做更多的考虑,导致了设备动作频繁、设备利用率差别很大、设备损耗。为弥补以上不足,本文提出考虑设备动作成本和动作设备数的无功电压控制方法,对系统电压、网损、设备寿命和动作次数进行优化,并通过变尺度混沌法与免疫遗传法混合智能算法进行求解,通过IEEE-30系统算例仿真表明该方法是有效的和可行的。
(5)本文从实际电价曲线出发,针对条件方差函数建模,并采用非参数估计方法确定其模型。同时针对条件标准差不可测的困难,引入迭代估计算法,通过不断修正作为输入量的条件标准差估计值来提高条件方差函数的估计可信度。通过加州电力市场2000年日前电价曲线试验结果表明,文中所提模型能够更好地体现电价时间序列波动集群性这一特征,利用非参数估计所确定的模型提升了尖峰电价的预测效果。
With the development of power system and the acceleration of power system deregulation,the problem of power system reliability in the deregulated environment is turning into a hot issue in the domain.Thus,research on power grid reliability and safety is of great engineering value and practical significance.Several major issues in power system reliability analysis are presented in this dissertation.The main contents and the related conclusions of this dissertation are outlined as follows:
This paper discusses the particularity of hybrid AC/DC power system.Based on the reliability model of a bipolar HVDC system,one DC line is equivalent to two AC lines, so that an AC/DC system can be transformed to an equivalent pure AC system,and the failure of DC systems with monopolar total outage or bipolar total outage can be analyzed with the equivalent of being failure AC lines,and evaluated with suitable AC transmission reliability assessment software.Furthermore,analysis on the reliability of Yunnan power grid is carried out by using this method.
In the field of research of the existing adequacy assessment in composite system, there are already many assessment methods based on a variety of different methods. When all of the methods are used in the same issue of reliability assessment,mutual differences often arise in the assessment results.To solve this problem,the paper presents an evidential reasoning(ER) approach to adequacy assessment in composite system.It is more effective to evaluate the level of reliability factors in composite system on the basis of the Dempster-Shafer's evidence theory.It can be seen from the results that the ER approach is a suitable solution to tackle the MADM problem of adequacy assessment.
This paper presents a novel approach to solve an optimal power flow problem with embedded security cost(OPF-SC),where the major aim is to minimize the total operating cost,taking into account both operating security cost and power system constraints.In addition,OPF-SC problem includes the cost of interrupting customer load and the cost of generator ramping.The algorithm handles the objective function and constraints separately,and adopts both directional and random search mechanism.It can avoid falling into local optimal point,which may appear in previous bionics random algorithms due to uncertainness of some parameters and/or without guiding search direction.Results on systems from the specialized literature are adopted to validate the proposed approach. Numerical simulation on the five-bus power system has shown that the proposed method is efficient in solving OPF-SC problems for large-scale power systems.
In this paper,a new voltage-reactive power optimization method is introduced, which considers the equipment operational cost and confines the number of operated equipment in each optimization.This paper presents a method of reactive power optimization using the hybrid intelligent algorithm(HIA),the hybrid intelligent algorithm is applied to the IEEE 30-bus system and the computing results prove the method of reactive power optimization which is based on the Hybrid Intelligent algorithm in this paper is effective and valuable in theory and practice.
Electric price is the fulcrum controlling power trade and plays a role in price guidance of electricity market.Based on nonparametric theory for conditional heteroskedasticity function,an improved method of electricity price forecasting is proposed.On the basis of real electricity price time series,conditional variance function is modeled for stochastic volatility,and the model is determined by means of non-parametric estimation.In the nonparametric estimation process,an iterate algorithm is introduced to overcome the problem that volatility is unobserved latent variable so that the confidence of estimated conditional variance function is weak.On the study of stochastic volatility of day-ahead electricity price in Humb spot in California,the forecasting is made.And the results of test show that the proposed method has the capability of forecasting electricity prices characteristic of volatility clustering,and improves the accuracy of price spikes forecasting.
引文
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