山东黄河流域森林资源空间格局及其评价研究
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摘要
山东黄河流域森林资源空间格局及其评价研究就是突破传统的森林资源监测与评价模式,利用少量地面样地调查数据,结合RS和GIS技术,借助数学和物理理论,建立以象元为单位的林分郁闭度、蓄积量估测模型,分析森林资源的数量、质量、结构和生态并对其进行评价,为实现流域森林生态系统的平衡、最大限度地发挥森林的生态、经济和社会效益提供科学依据。
该文采用2000、2006年两期时相相近的TM/ETM+遥感影像作为研究区的基本数据源,利用GPS、全站仪等仪器,采取典型随机抽样方法采集了378个抽样点的外业数据,借助MATLAB、SPSS、SAS、Microsoft Office Execl等统计分析软件、ERDAS、ArcGIS、Fragstats等建模及空间分析工具,运用主成分分析法,多元线性逐步回归法、空间叠加分析法、模糊数学法、层次分析法、线性规划法研究了山东黄河流域森林资源的空间格局和森林景观,并对其进行了综合评价。主要研究结论有:
(1)通过监督分类、非监督分类和专家分类等方法得出流域2000、2006年的森林覆盖率分别为21.4%、25.6%。6年间有林地转移速率最大,其减少量中大部分转化为农田和建设用地。宜林荒山荒地减少量中,有21%转化为有林地,11%转化为农田。农田的减少量中,有12%转化为有林地。很明显,流域的宜林荒山荒地得到大力改造,国家的退耕还林政策开始起到明显的成效。通过主成分分析法和多元线性逐步回归法建模估测出流域的林分蓄积量由2000年的1277万m~3增加到2006年的1326万m~3。2000年,中龄林和中幼龄林的蓄积量分别占82%、7%,到2006年,中幼龄林的蓄积量迅速增加,达到35%,中龄林的蓄积量只占50%。流域大于海拔200m的林分蓄积量仅占14%,平原的林分蓄积量高达86%,6年间蓄积量海拔梯度变化不大。
(2)利用Fragstats景观软件计算并分析了森林景观的21个代表性指数。山东黄河流域农田的斑块面积最大,其占流域总面积的48%,其次是有林地,约占26%,第三是建设用地,约占13%。森林景观中,宜林荒山荒地斑块面积最大,灌木林最小。阔叶林和针叶林的斑块数和斑块密度较大。灌木林的平均斑块面积最大,经济林最小。阔叶林、针叶林的景观破碎化程度高,灌木林破碎化程度最低,宜林荒山荒地的连通性最强。6年间,景观指数变化最大的是宜林荒山荒地和阔叶林景观,其中荒山荒地的斑块数减少了近2倍,斑块的连通性急速提高,单位面积急剧增加。阔叶林景观的斑块数增加近50%,斑块平均面积大幅减小。总之,山东黄河流域森林景观虽然得到改善,但是,森林覆盖率不高、荒山荒地比重较大、森林景观破碎化程度高、水土流失严重、森林生态系统非常不稳定是其主要特点。
(3)通过层次分析与模糊数学综合评价法对流域森林资源的空间格局进行了评价。研究表明,流域的森林资源分布极不均匀,济南、泰安、莱芜的森林覆盖率超过30%,但三个地市宜林荒山荒地的比例都超过10%,其它七个地市的森林覆盖率只有15%。森林资源空间格局方面,泰安市优,济南市和莱芜市良,淄博市、滨州市、菏泽市、东营市和德州市中等,济宁市和聊城市较差。6年间,泰安市的森林资源空间格局评价由良好到优秀,济南市和莱芜市的评价得分值虽然都较高,但是,济南市朝好的方向发展,相反,莱芜市的得分值不升反降,而且变坏的趋势明显。淄博市、滨州市、菏泽市、东营市和德州市的得分值虽然没有达到良好标准,但其变好的趋势非常明显,济宁市和聊城市的森林资源空间格局较差。
(4)利用线性规划法对山东黄河流域的宜林荒山荒地进行林种的优化配置和改造后,流域单位面积林分蓄积量、有林地百分比、针阔叶混交林百分比、经济林百分比和林种结构得到明显改善,森林资源空间格局由中等达到良好的分级标准。
论文的创新点
(1)近些年,众多学者对黄河中上游地区的森林资源进行了大量研究,但对黄河下游地区的森林资源研究的较少。山东黄河流域是黄河入海的最后区域,研究该地区的森林资源及其动态对于研究整个黄河流域的森林资源具有重要意义。该文利用广义3S技术将森林资源空间格局、森林景观生态构成一个整体进行定量和动态研究,其研究成果对山东黄河流域的森林资源经营和管理、山东黄河的治理具有重要的意义。
(2)该文基于TM/ETM+遥感影像和相关因子定量估测了流域森林资源的蓄积量、郁闭度,采用层次分析模糊综合评价法从森林资源、森林景观生态、环境和社会经济方面对森林资源空间格局进行了综合评价,其研究方法具有创新性。
(3)该文基于线性规划的方法对山东黄河流域的宜林荒山荒地和林种结构进行了优化配置,在不改变森林覆盖率的情况下,可以大幅度地改善森林资源的空间格局,提高森林资源的生态、经济和社会效益,该研究方法具有理论意义和实践价值。
The paper concerning the spatial pattern of the forest,as well as the assessment of the forest in the Yellow River basin of Shandong Province is the breakthrough in the field of traditional monitoring and assessment mode of forest resources.The new method is like this:small amount of investigation data of ground plots is used,with the technology of remote sensing and geographical information system,as well as mathematical and physical theories,to establish the prediction model of canopy density and volume of the forest with pixel as the basic unit;the model is applied to make an analysis of the quantity, quality,structure and ecology of the forest resources and their assessment.The purpose of the paper is to make the forest ecological system of the basin in balance and provide the scientific basis for exerting the best function of the ecological,economy and social benefits.
In the paper,two periods(2000 and 2006) of TM/ETM+ remote sensing images with similar temporal were selected as the basic data sources,378 sample points were collected with the method of typical and random sampling by GPS and the total station.With the help of the statistical analysis software like MATLAB,SPSS,SAS and Microsoft Office EXCEL,as well as the tools for modeling and spatial analysis like ERDAS,ArcGIS and Fragstats,some methods were applied to study the spatial pattern and the landscape pattern of the forest in the Yellow River basin of Shandong Province,and a comprehensive assessment of forest resources spatial distribution was made as well.The methods included principal component analysis,multi-element linear regression,spatial overlay analysis,fuzzy mathematical method,analytic hierarchy process,and linear programming.The main research conclusions were as follow:
Firstly,the forest coverage in the paper site was 21.4%in 2000,and 25.6%in 2006 by the methods of supervised classification,non-supervised classification and expert classification.During these 6 years, metastasis rate of forestland was highest,and most of the forestland transformed into cropland and construction land.In the decrement of barren hills suitable for afforestation,21%of it transformed into forestland,and 11%into cropland.In the decrement of cropland,12%of it transfered into forestland.It was obvious that the barren hills and lands had been transformed with lots of efforts.Therefore,the national policy of conversion of cropland to forest began to exert obvious effect.By the method of principal component analysis and multi-element linear regression,the model could predict the increment of forest volume from 12770000m~3 to 13260000m~3 from the year of 2000 to 2006.In 2000, the volumes of middle-age forest and young forest took 82%and 7%respectively.While in 2006,the volume of young forest increased a lot,reaching 35%,and the volume of middle-age forest took only 50%.The forest volume that distributed above the height of 200m in the basin only took 14%,while the forest volume in the plain area could reach as high as 86%.There was no drastic gradient change of the height during these 6 years.
Secondly,the software of Fragstats was used to estimate and analyze 21 symbolized indexes of the forest landscape.The results were as follow:the plaque are of cropland took the highest part in the Yellow River basin of Shandong Province,with 48%of the total basis area,and in the second place,the forestland took 26%,and then,the construction land occupied 13%;in the forest landscape,the patch area of barren hills and land suitable for afforestation took the largest part,while shrubs took the smallest part;the patchs of broad-leaved forest and coniferous forest were with the highest patch number and density;the shrubs were with the highest average patch area,while the patchs of the economic forest were with the lowest;the broadleaved forest and coniferous forest were with the highest landscape fragmentation indexes,while the shrubs with the lowest;the barren hills and lands suitable for afforestation were with the best connectivity.During these 6 years,the landscape index of the barren hills and lands suitable for afforestation,as well as the broad-leaved forest changed most obviously,among which the patchs of the barren hills and lands reduced by nearly two times,with high rise of the connectivity and the unit area.The patch number of the broad-leaved forest increased by nearly 50%,and the average area of patchs decreased greatly.All in all,the forest landscape in Yellow River basin of Shandong Province had been improved a lot,however,the characteristics of its landscape were as follows:low forest coverage,large proportion of the barren hills and lands,high degree of landscape fragmentation of forests,severe soil loss and unstable forest ecological system.
Thirdly,analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical analysis were used to study on the spatial pattern of the forest in the basin.The paper showed that the forest resources distributed unevenly: the forest coverage of Jinan,Tai'an and Laiwu was over 30%,while the percentage of the barren hills and lands was over 10%.However,the forest coverage of other 7 cities were only 15%.In the aspect of spatial pattern,Tai'an was the best,Jinan and Laiwu were good,while Zibo,Binzhou,Heze,Dongying and Dezhou were just so-so,Jining and Liaocheng were the worst.During the 6 years,the assessment of Tai'an changed from good to excellent,Jinan and Laiwu got the high remarks,and however,Jinan tended to develop well while Laiwu tended to go to the other direction.Although Zibo,Binzhou,Heze, Dongying and Dezhou did not get the good standard,but the development trend seemed to be better.In addition,the forest spatial patterns of Jining and Liaocheng were not good enough.
Finally,linear programming method was used to do optimal allocation and reform on the forest species of the barren hills and lands in the basin.The result was like this:there was obvious improvement in forest volume per unit area,percentage of forestlands,percentage of mixed woods, percentage of economic forest,as well as the forest category structure.The standard of the forest spatial pattern resources changed from moderate to good.
Paper innovative as followed:
(1) the generalized 3S integrated technology was applied to do quantitative and dynamic research on the whole of forest spatial pattern and landscape.The research results will be significant to the forest management,as well as the control of the Yellow River in the region of Shandong Province.
(2) the paper did quantitative estimation on the forest volume,canopy density on the basis of the relevant factors regarding the TM/ETM+ remote sensing images.The analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical analysis were used to do comprehensive assessment of the forest resources,forest landscape ecology,environment and social economy.
(3) the paper did optimal allocation of the barren hills and lands,as well as the forest category structure in the Yellow River basin of Shandong Province.Under the condition of no change of forest coverage,the optimal allocation could improve the forest spatial pattern greatly,ecological,social and economic benefits as well.Therefore,this research method of the paper has certain theoretical significance and practical value.
该文采用2000、2006年两期时相相近的TM/ETM+遥感影像作为研究区的基本数据源,利用GPS、全站仪等仪器,采取典型随机抽样方法采集了378个抽样点的外业数据,借助MATLAB、SPSS、SAS、Microsoft Office Execl等统计分析软件、ERDAS、ArcGIS、Fragstats等建模及空间分析工具,运用主成分分析法,多元线性逐步回归法、空间叠加分析法、模糊数学法、层次分析法、线性规划法研究了山东黄河流域森林资源的空间格局和森林景观,并对其进行了综合评价。主要研究结论有:
(1)通过监督分类、非监督分类和专家分类等方法得出流域2000、2006年的森林覆盖率分别为21.4%、25.6%。6年间有林地转移速率最大,其减少量中大部分转化为农田和建设用地。宜林荒山荒地减少量中,有21%转化为有林地,11%转化为农田。农田的减少量中,有12%转化为有林地。很明显,流域的宜林荒山荒地得到大力改造,国家的退耕还林政策开始起到明显的成效。通过主成分分析法和多元线性逐步回归法建模估测出流域的林分蓄积量由2000年的1277万m~3增加到2006年的1326万m~3。2000年,中龄林和中幼龄林的蓄积量分别占82%、7%,到2006年,中幼龄林的蓄积量迅速增加,达到35%,中龄林的蓄积量只占50%。流域大于海拔200m的林分蓄积量仅占14%,平原的林分蓄积量高达86%,6年间蓄积量海拔梯度变化不大。
(2)利用Fragstats景观软件计算并分析了森林景观的21个代表性指数。山东黄河流域农田的斑块面积最大,其占流域总面积的48%,其次是有林地,约占26%,第三是建设用地,约占13%。森林景观中,宜林荒山荒地斑块面积最大,灌木林最小。阔叶林和针叶林的斑块数和斑块密度较大。灌木林的平均斑块面积最大,经济林最小。阔叶林、针叶林的景观破碎化程度高,灌木林破碎化程度最低,宜林荒山荒地的连通性最强。6年间,景观指数变化最大的是宜林荒山荒地和阔叶林景观,其中荒山荒地的斑块数减少了近2倍,斑块的连通性急速提高,单位面积急剧增加。阔叶林景观的斑块数增加近50%,斑块平均面积大幅减小。总之,山东黄河流域森林景观虽然得到改善,但是,森林覆盖率不高、荒山荒地比重较大、森林景观破碎化程度高、水土流失严重、森林生态系统非常不稳定是其主要特点。
(3)通过层次分析与模糊数学综合评价法对流域森林资源的空间格局进行了评价。研究表明,流域的森林资源分布极不均匀,济南、泰安、莱芜的森林覆盖率超过30%,但三个地市宜林荒山荒地的比例都超过10%,其它七个地市的森林覆盖率只有15%。森林资源空间格局方面,泰安市优,济南市和莱芜市良,淄博市、滨州市、菏泽市、东营市和德州市中等,济宁市和聊城市较差。6年间,泰安市的森林资源空间格局评价由良好到优秀,济南市和莱芜市的评价得分值虽然都较高,但是,济南市朝好的方向发展,相反,莱芜市的得分值不升反降,而且变坏的趋势明显。淄博市、滨州市、菏泽市、东营市和德州市的得分值虽然没有达到良好标准,但其变好的趋势非常明显,济宁市和聊城市的森林资源空间格局较差。
(4)利用线性规划法对山东黄河流域的宜林荒山荒地进行林种的优化配置和改造后,流域单位面积林分蓄积量、有林地百分比、针阔叶混交林百分比、经济林百分比和林种结构得到明显改善,森林资源空间格局由中等达到良好的分级标准。
论文的创新点
(1)近些年,众多学者对黄河中上游地区的森林资源进行了大量研究,但对黄河下游地区的森林资源研究的较少。山东黄河流域是黄河入海的最后区域,研究该地区的森林资源及其动态对于研究整个黄河流域的森林资源具有重要意义。该文利用广义3S技术将森林资源空间格局、森林景观生态构成一个整体进行定量和动态研究,其研究成果对山东黄河流域的森林资源经营和管理、山东黄河的治理具有重要的意义。
(2)该文基于TM/ETM+遥感影像和相关因子定量估测了流域森林资源的蓄积量、郁闭度,采用层次分析模糊综合评价法从森林资源、森林景观生态、环境和社会经济方面对森林资源空间格局进行了综合评价,其研究方法具有创新性。
(3)该文基于线性规划的方法对山东黄河流域的宜林荒山荒地和林种结构进行了优化配置,在不改变森林覆盖率的情况下,可以大幅度地改善森林资源的空间格局,提高森林资源的生态、经济和社会效益,该研究方法具有理论意义和实践价值。
The paper concerning the spatial pattern of the forest,as well as the assessment of the forest in the Yellow River basin of Shandong Province is the breakthrough in the field of traditional monitoring and assessment mode of forest resources.The new method is like this:small amount of investigation data of ground plots is used,with the technology of remote sensing and geographical information system,as well as mathematical and physical theories,to establish the prediction model of canopy density and volume of the forest with pixel as the basic unit;the model is applied to make an analysis of the quantity, quality,structure and ecology of the forest resources and their assessment.The purpose of the paper is to make the forest ecological system of the basin in balance and provide the scientific basis for exerting the best function of the ecological,economy and social benefits.
In the paper,two periods(2000 and 2006) of TM/ETM+ remote sensing images with similar temporal were selected as the basic data sources,378 sample points were collected with the method of typical and random sampling by GPS and the total station.With the help of the statistical analysis software like MATLAB,SPSS,SAS and Microsoft Office EXCEL,as well as the tools for modeling and spatial analysis like ERDAS,ArcGIS and Fragstats,some methods were applied to study the spatial pattern and the landscape pattern of the forest in the Yellow River basin of Shandong Province,and a comprehensive assessment of forest resources spatial distribution was made as well.The methods included principal component analysis,multi-element linear regression,spatial overlay analysis,fuzzy mathematical method,analytic hierarchy process,and linear programming.The main research conclusions were as follow:
Firstly,the forest coverage in the paper site was 21.4%in 2000,and 25.6%in 2006 by the methods of supervised classification,non-supervised classification and expert classification.During these 6 years, metastasis rate of forestland was highest,and most of the forestland transformed into cropland and construction land.In the decrement of barren hills suitable for afforestation,21%of it transformed into forestland,and 11%into cropland.In the decrement of cropland,12%of it transfered into forestland.It was obvious that the barren hills and lands had been transformed with lots of efforts.Therefore,the national policy of conversion of cropland to forest began to exert obvious effect.By the method of principal component analysis and multi-element linear regression,the model could predict the increment of forest volume from 12770000m~3 to 13260000m~3 from the year of 2000 to 2006.In 2000, the volumes of middle-age forest and young forest took 82%and 7%respectively.While in 2006,the volume of young forest increased a lot,reaching 35%,and the volume of middle-age forest took only 50%.The forest volume that distributed above the height of 200m in the basin only took 14%,while the forest volume in the plain area could reach as high as 86%.There was no drastic gradient change of the height during these 6 years.
Secondly,the software of Fragstats was used to estimate and analyze 21 symbolized indexes of the forest landscape.The results were as follow:the plaque are of cropland took the highest part in the Yellow River basin of Shandong Province,with 48%of the total basis area,and in the second place,the forestland took 26%,and then,the construction land occupied 13%;in the forest landscape,the patch area of barren hills and land suitable for afforestation took the largest part,while shrubs took the smallest part;the patchs of broad-leaved forest and coniferous forest were with the highest patch number and density;the shrubs were with the highest average patch area,while the patchs of the economic forest were with the lowest;the broadleaved forest and coniferous forest were with the highest landscape fragmentation indexes,while the shrubs with the lowest;the barren hills and lands suitable for afforestation were with the best connectivity.During these 6 years,the landscape index of the barren hills and lands suitable for afforestation,as well as the broad-leaved forest changed most obviously,among which the patchs of the barren hills and lands reduced by nearly two times,with high rise of the connectivity and the unit area.The patch number of the broad-leaved forest increased by nearly 50%,and the average area of patchs decreased greatly.All in all,the forest landscape in Yellow River basin of Shandong Province had been improved a lot,however,the characteristics of its landscape were as follows:low forest coverage,large proportion of the barren hills and lands,high degree of landscape fragmentation of forests,severe soil loss and unstable forest ecological system.
Thirdly,analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical analysis were used to study on the spatial pattern of the forest in the basin.The paper showed that the forest resources distributed unevenly: the forest coverage of Jinan,Tai'an and Laiwu was over 30%,while the percentage of the barren hills and lands was over 10%.However,the forest coverage of other 7 cities were only 15%.In the aspect of spatial pattern,Tai'an was the best,Jinan and Laiwu were good,while Zibo,Binzhou,Heze,Dongying and Dezhou were just so-so,Jining and Liaocheng were the worst.During the 6 years,the assessment of Tai'an changed from good to excellent,Jinan and Laiwu got the high remarks,and however,Jinan tended to develop well while Laiwu tended to go to the other direction.Although Zibo,Binzhou,Heze, Dongying and Dezhou did not get the good standard,but the development trend seemed to be better.In addition,the forest spatial patterns of Jining and Liaocheng were not good enough.
Finally,linear programming method was used to do optimal allocation and reform on the forest species of the barren hills and lands in the basin.The result was like this:there was obvious improvement in forest volume per unit area,percentage of forestlands,percentage of mixed woods, percentage of economic forest,as well as the forest category structure.The standard of the forest spatial pattern resources changed from moderate to good.
Paper innovative as followed:
(1) the generalized 3S integrated technology was applied to do quantitative and dynamic research on the whole of forest spatial pattern and landscape.The research results will be significant to the forest management,as well as the control of the Yellow River in the region of Shandong Province.
(2) the paper did quantitative estimation on the forest volume,canopy density on the basis of the relevant factors regarding the TM/ETM+ remote sensing images.The analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical analysis were used to do comprehensive assessment of the forest resources,forest landscape ecology,environment and social economy.
(3) the paper did optimal allocation of the barren hills and lands,as well as the forest category structure in the Yellow River basin of Shandong Province.Under the condition of no change of forest coverage,the optimal allocation could improve the forest spatial pattern greatly,ecological,social and economic benefits as well.Therefore,this research method of the paper has certain theoretical significance and practical value.
引文
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