中国农业氧化亚氮排放及减排潜力研究
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摘要
人类活动引起的温室气体浓度的增加是气候变化的主要原因之一。我国是农业大国,农业不仅提供了生产和生活资料,也是N2O的重要排放源。因此研究我国农业N2O排放量及其未来变化趋势,对于正确认识农业对气候变化的贡献具有重要的意义。本文首先研究了IPCC温室气体清单编制方法以及CO2浓度升高对农田N2O排放的影响,然后利用GAINS模型和“牲畜和粮食产量动态模型”模拟了不同情景下我国农业N2O排放以及农田N2O减排潜力。主要得出以下结论:
(1)通过对比分析《2006年IPCC指南》与《1996年IPCC指南》和《2000年IPCC指南》的不同,总结了《2006年IPCC指南》的新特点。粪便管理中除了液体/泥肥和用厚铺垫的家牛和猪的排放因子以外,其他排放因子都低于1996年和2000年的排放因子。管理土壤中N2O直接排放因子(EF1)由0.0125变为0.01 kg N2O-N/kg N。氮的淋溶和径流的排放因子(EF5)由0.025变为0.0075 kg N2O-N/(kg N淋溶和径流)。同时根据排放源的重要性和数据的可获得性,给出了三层估算N2O排放量的计算方法。《2006年IPCC指南》对活动水平数据和国家特定排放因子的要求越来越高,因此我国需进一步加强农业N2O排放因子的研究,逐步建立国家温室气体清单数据统计系统,将《2006年IPCC指南》要求的所有数据纳入国家数据统计系统之中。
(2)CO2浓度升高抑制了农田N2O排放,随着氮肥施用量的增加,CO2的抑制作用逐渐减弱。常规氮肥处理和无氮肥处理的CO2抑制作用显著,而低氮肥处理的CO2抑制作用不显著。同时CO2浓度升高降低了氮肥施用导致的农田N2O排放,但是差异不显著。
(3)2000到2030年间,由于动物养殖数量和氮肥用量的增加,我国农业N2O排放呈递增的趋势。在INMIC_中情景下,2000年我国农业N2O排量为1533 kt,到2030年N2O排放量增长了31%。其中农田作为我国农业N2O的最大排放源,占农业N2O排放量的80%。到2030年,INMIC_中情景下的农田N2O排放量为1258 kt,增长了37%,而粪便管理系统中的N2O排放量只增加了3%。就区域分布而言,我国农业N2O排放主要集中在山东、河南、四川、河北、江苏、湖南、云南、安徽等省。
(4)在分析了减排措施的效果、成本以及在我国的适应性基础上,用GAINS模型模拟了减少氮肥施用量、优化施肥、使用硝化抑制剂和精准农业四种减排措施的农田N2O减排潜力。到2030年通过氮肥的深施、混施等方式,我国可以减少氮肥用量1900 kt N,节约成本78亿元,减少N2O排放85 kt。通过施用长效肥料、缓效肥料等优化施肥措施,2030年可以减少氮肥1580 kt N,节约成本65亿元,减少N2O排放70 kt。但是减少氮肥施用量和优化施肥没有改变农田N2O排放增长的趋势。而通过使用硝化抑制剂可以明显降低农田N2O排放,在2015年左右农田N2O排放达到峰值,之后逐渐降低,到2030年减排效果为320 kt N2O。精准农业是未来农业的发展目标,但是资金和技术的投入暂时无法定量估价,通过发展精准农业,2030年可以减少140 kt N2O排放。
Increase in greenhouse gas emissions resulted by human activities is one of the key reasons for climate change. As a big agricultural country, China’s agriculture not only produces food and other commodities, and it is also the main source of N2O emissions. The study of estimation of agricultural N2O emissions in China and its future trends is of great importance for understanding of agriculture's contribution to climate change. This research studied the IPCC Guidelines for National Greeenhouse Gas Inventories and effects of elevated CO2 on N2O emissions from cropland. Applying GAINS model and“Livestock and Crop Production Dynamics model”, agricultural N2O emissions and mitigation potential of N2O emissions from cropland were simulated under different scenarios in China. The main conclusions as follows:
(1) Through comparative analysis on“1996 IPCC Guidelines”,“2000 IPCC Guidelines”and“2006 IPCC Guidelines”, the new features of“2006 IPCC Guidelines”was summarized as follow. Except emission factors for liquid/slurry and cattle and swine deep bedding, all other emission factors for manure management in“2006 IPCC Guidelines”are lower than those in 1996 and 2000. EF1 for direct N2O emissions from managed soil has changed from 0.0125 to 0.01 kg N2O-N/kg N. EF5 for indirect N2O emissions from N leaching and runoff has changed from 0.025 to 0.0075 kg N2O-N/ (kg N leaching/runoff). Meanwhile based on the importance of sources and the data availability,“2006 IPCC Guidelines”provided a three-tier methodology to estimate N2O emissions. Because of more strictly demand on activity data and country specific emissions factors in the“2006 IPCC Guidelines”, further research on agricultural N2O emission factors is needed in China, and it is necessary to establish a statistical data system for national greenhouse gas inventory gradually and add all of the data required by“2006 IPCC Guidelines”into national statistical systems.
(2) Elevated CO2 inhibited the N2O emissions from cropland, but the inhibiting effect of elevated CO2 decreased as the N fertilizer increased. The inhibiting effect of elevated CO2 was significant in normal N and zero N treatments, but not significant in low N. There was a decreasing trend of N2O emissions resulted by N fertilizer under elevated CO2, but not significant.
(3) Because of the increasing livestock and N fertilizers, there is an increasing trend in agricultural N2O emissions from 2000 to 2030. Total agricultural N2O emissions in 2000 are 1533 kt N2O for INMIC_central, with an increase of 31 percent by 2030. N2O emissions from cropland are 1258 kt N2O in 2030 which account for 80% of total agricultural N2O, with an increase of 37 percent. N2O emissions from manure management only increased 3 percent by 2030. Agricultural N2O emissions mainly come from Shandong, Henan, Sichuan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Hunan, Yunnan and Anhui province.
(4) Base on the analysis of the effectiveness, cost and adaptability of mitigation measures in China, the mitigation potential of N2O emissions from cropland was simulated by GAINS model. Through deep or mixed application of nitrogen fertilizer, the use of nitrogen fertilizer can be reduced by 1897 kt in 2030, saving costs of 7.8 billion yuan and reducing 85 kt N2O emissions from cropland. Through the optimized timing of fertilizer application such as long-acting fertilizer or slow fertilizer, it can reduce nitrogen fertilizer more than 1580 kt N, with 6.5 billion yuan saved and 70 kt N2O reductions. However, reducing nitrogen fertilizer and optimized timing of fertilizer application can not change the emission trend. N2O emissions from cropland reach the peak in 2015 by the application of nitrification inhibitors and then decrease, with a mitigation of 320 kt N2O in 2030. Precision farming is the goal of agriculture development, but the input of capital and technology can not be quantitatively evaluated. Total of 140 kt N2O reduction was projected through the adoption of precision farming by 2030.
(1)通过对比分析《2006年IPCC指南》与《1996年IPCC指南》和《2000年IPCC指南》的不同,总结了《2006年IPCC指南》的新特点。粪便管理中除了液体/泥肥和用厚铺垫的家牛和猪的排放因子以外,其他排放因子都低于1996年和2000年的排放因子。管理土壤中N2O直接排放因子(EF1)由0.0125变为0.01 kg N2O-N/kg N。氮的淋溶和径流的排放因子(EF5)由0.025变为0.0075 kg N2O-N/(kg N淋溶和径流)。同时根据排放源的重要性和数据的可获得性,给出了三层估算N2O排放量的计算方法。《2006年IPCC指南》对活动水平数据和国家特定排放因子的要求越来越高,因此我国需进一步加强农业N2O排放因子的研究,逐步建立国家温室气体清单数据统计系统,将《2006年IPCC指南》要求的所有数据纳入国家数据统计系统之中。
(2)CO2浓度升高抑制了农田N2O排放,随着氮肥施用量的增加,CO2的抑制作用逐渐减弱。常规氮肥处理和无氮肥处理的CO2抑制作用显著,而低氮肥处理的CO2抑制作用不显著。同时CO2浓度升高降低了氮肥施用导致的农田N2O排放,但是差异不显著。
(3)2000到2030年间,由于动物养殖数量和氮肥用量的增加,我国农业N2O排放呈递增的趋势。在INMIC_中情景下,2000年我国农业N2O排量为1533 kt,到2030年N2O排放量增长了31%。其中农田作为我国农业N2O的最大排放源,占农业N2O排放量的80%。到2030年,INMIC_中情景下的农田N2O排放量为1258 kt,增长了37%,而粪便管理系统中的N2O排放量只增加了3%。就区域分布而言,我国农业N2O排放主要集中在山东、河南、四川、河北、江苏、湖南、云南、安徽等省。
(4)在分析了减排措施的效果、成本以及在我国的适应性基础上,用GAINS模型模拟了减少氮肥施用量、优化施肥、使用硝化抑制剂和精准农业四种减排措施的农田N2O减排潜力。到2030年通过氮肥的深施、混施等方式,我国可以减少氮肥用量1900 kt N,节约成本78亿元,减少N2O排放85 kt。通过施用长效肥料、缓效肥料等优化施肥措施,2030年可以减少氮肥1580 kt N,节约成本65亿元,减少N2O排放70 kt。但是减少氮肥施用量和优化施肥没有改变农田N2O排放增长的趋势。而通过使用硝化抑制剂可以明显降低农田N2O排放,在2015年左右农田N2O排放达到峰值,之后逐渐降低,到2030年减排效果为320 kt N2O。精准农业是未来农业的发展目标,但是资金和技术的投入暂时无法定量估价,通过发展精准农业,2030年可以减少140 kt N2O排放。
Increase in greenhouse gas emissions resulted by human activities is one of the key reasons for climate change. As a big agricultural country, China’s agriculture not only produces food and other commodities, and it is also the main source of N2O emissions. The study of estimation of agricultural N2O emissions in China and its future trends is of great importance for understanding of agriculture's contribution to climate change. This research studied the IPCC Guidelines for National Greeenhouse Gas Inventories and effects of elevated CO2 on N2O emissions from cropland. Applying GAINS model and“Livestock and Crop Production Dynamics model”, agricultural N2O emissions and mitigation potential of N2O emissions from cropland were simulated under different scenarios in China. The main conclusions as follows:
(1) Through comparative analysis on“1996 IPCC Guidelines”,“2000 IPCC Guidelines”and“2006 IPCC Guidelines”, the new features of“2006 IPCC Guidelines”was summarized as follow. Except emission factors for liquid/slurry and cattle and swine deep bedding, all other emission factors for manure management in“2006 IPCC Guidelines”are lower than those in 1996 and 2000. EF1 for direct N2O emissions from managed soil has changed from 0.0125 to 0.01 kg N2O-N/kg N. EF5 for indirect N2O emissions from N leaching and runoff has changed from 0.025 to 0.0075 kg N2O-N/ (kg N leaching/runoff). Meanwhile based on the importance of sources and the data availability,“2006 IPCC Guidelines”provided a three-tier methodology to estimate N2O emissions. Because of more strictly demand on activity data and country specific emissions factors in the“2006 IPCC Guidelines”, further research on agricultural N2O emission factors is needed in China, and it is necessary to establish a statistical data system for national greenhouse gas inventory gradually and add all of the data required by“2006 IPCC Guidelines”into national statistical systems.
(2) Elevated CO2 inhibited the N2O emissions from cropland, but the inhibiting effect of elevated CO2 decreased as the N fertilizer increased. The inhibiting effect of elevated CO2 was significant in normal N and zero N treatments, but not significant in low N. There was a decreasing trend of N2O emissions resulted by N fertilizer under elevated CO2, but not significant.
(3) Because of the increasing livestock and N fertilizers, there is an increasing trend in agricultural N2O emissions from 2000 to 2030. Total agricultural N2O emissions in 2000 are 1533 kt N2O for INMIC_central, with an increase of 31 percent by 2030. N2O emissions from cropland are 1258 kt N2O in 2030 which account for 80% of total agricultural N2O, with an increase of 37 percent. N2O emissions from manure management only increased 3 percent by 2030. Agricultural N2O emissions mainly come from Shandong, Henan, Sichuan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Hunan, Yunnan and Anhui province.
(4) Base on the analysis of the effectiveness, cost and adaptability of mitigation measures in China, the mitigation potential of N2O emissions from cropland was simulated by GAINS model. Through deep or mixed application of nitrogen fertilizer, the use of nitrogen fertilizer can be reduced by 1897 kt in 2030, saving costs of 7.8 billion yuan and reducing 85 kt N2O emissions from cropland. Through the optimized timing of fertilizer application such as long-acting fertilizer or slow fertilizer, it can reduce nitrogen fertilizer more than 1580 kt N, with 6.5 billion yuan saved and 70 kt N2O reductions. However, reducing nitrogen fertilizer and optimized timing of fertilizer application can not change the emission trend. N2O emissions from cropland reach the peak in 2015 by the application of nitrification inhibitors and then decrease, with a mitigation of 320 kt N2O in 2030. Precision farming is the goal of agriculture development, but the input of capital and technology can not be quantitatively evaluated. Total of 140 kt N2O reduction was projected through the adoption of precision farming by 2030.
引文
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