中国能源与经济之间关系的模型及实证分析
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摘要
能源作为经济发展的动力,经济的发展离不开能源。自改革开放以来,中国经济获得了飞速发展,备受世界瞩目。伴随着经济的高速增长,中国能源消费量也大幅度增长,能源短缺成为经济进一步发展的瓶颈问题。与此同时,能源消费导致的环境污染问题,也越来越接近中国环境的承受极限。在此背景下研究能源与经济的关系,找出影响能源效率的主要因素,是我国节能减排的关键。本文综合运用现代计量技术和经济理论,系统研究了我国能源与经济之间的关系以及影响能源效率的主要因素,不仅具有重要的理论意义,且具有重要的政策意义。其主要研究成果包括:
运用协整理论研究了能源消费与经济增长之间的关系,表明能源消费与经济增长之间存在着长期均衡关系。基于误差修正模型的格兰杰因果关系检验结果表明,存在着能源消费到经济增长的短期格兰杰因果关系,经济增长到能源消费的长期格兰杰因果关系。对时间序列数据H-P滤波后的关系分析表明,能源消费与经济增长的协整关系受经济增长和能源消费共同波动的影响。
基于LMDI分解模型对生产能源强度和工业能源强度影响因素进行了完全分解研究,得出累计技术效应是生产能源强度和工业能源强度变化的主要原因;累计产业结构效应导致生产能源强度变化的位居其次,也是不容忽视的因素。技术效应的进一步分析显示,10大高耗能行业的技术效应是生产能源强度和工业能源强度降低的主要贡献者。这给我国节能减排政策提供了方向。
运用计量方法分别研究了煤炭价格和石油价格对其需求的影响,得出长期内煤炭价格上涨能够一定程度上抑制煤炭需求,而长期内石油价格上涨对石油需求影响可以忽略不计。
分析了影响我国能源需求的主要影响因素,构建了我国能源价格指数,在此基础上,研究了我国能源需求和经济增长、能源价格、产业结构之间的长期均衡关系,根据变量的不同趋势预测了我国未来能源需求,结果显示我国未来能源需求量很大。
最后,利用区域经济学的理论,分析了我国能源消费、电力消费以及CO_2排放省区之间的配置效果,发现既不符合效率原则,也不符合公平性原则。分别研究我国的节能和节电潜力以及CO_2减排潜力。分析了影响我国能源强度(电力强度)和CO_2排放强度的影响因素,并给出了相应的政策建议。
As the driving force of economic development,energy plays a vital important role in economic development.Since China's reform and opening up,the rapid economic development attract worldwide attention.Along with rapid economic development, China's energy consumption has a substantial growth.Energy shortage has become a bottleneck issue to further economic development in China.At the same time,the environmental pollution caused by the energy consumption is also getting to the limits of the environment.Under this background,the research of the relationship between energy and the economy as well as the analysis of the main factors of energy efficiency is the key to China's energy-saving and emission reduction.In this dissertation,based on modem econometric techniques and economic theory,the relationship China's energy and economy as well as the main factors of energy efficiency are system studied which not only has great theoretical significance but also has very important policy implications.The main research objects and resuls are:
1.Cointegration technique is applied to research the he relationship between energy consumption and economic growth.The estimation results indicate that energy consumption and economic growth are co-integrated.Based on error correction model (ECM) Granger causality relationship between energy consumption and economic growth was tested.The estimation results indicate that there is Granger causality running from energy consumption to economic growth in short-term and Granger causality running from economic growth to energy consumption in long-term.The relationships of H-P filtered time-series data are analyzed.The results show that the cointegration relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is influenced by the comovement of economic growth and energy consumption.
2.Baesd on LMDI decomposition model,the factors of production energy intensity and industry energy intensity are studied.The research indicates that the accumulated technological effect has main effect on production energy intensity and industry energy intensity changes.The ccumulated industrial structure effect yields a relatively larger share of production energy intensity changes,which can not be ignored.The further analysis of technological effect show that the top 10 high-energy-consuming sub-sectors technological effect is the main contributors in the decline of production energy intensity and industry energy intensity.The results give us direction for energy-saving and emission reduction policy in China.
3.Using econometric methods,the relationship between coal price and coal demand as well as oil price and oil demand are studied respectively.The results indicate that coal prices rise can curb demand for coal and oil prices rise has slightly impact on oil demand.
4.The main factors of China's energy demand are analyzed and China's energy price indices are constructed.Based on this,the long-run equilibrium relationship among China's energy demand,economic growth,energy prices,and industrial structure is studied.According to the future trend of different variables,the future energy demand in China is forecasted.The results indicate that China's future energy demand will increase sharply.
Finally,based on regional economics,the allocation effects of energy consumption, electricity consumption and CO_2 emissions among provinces are analyzed.The research results indicated that the allocation of energy consumption,electricity consumption and CO_2 emissions not only is inconsistent with the principle of efficiency,but also is inconsistent with the principle of fairness.The energy-saving,electricity-saving potential,CO_2 emission reduction potential are studied respectively.The factors of China's energy intensity and the CO_2 emission intensity are researched and the corresponding policy recommendations are given.
运用协整理论研究了能源消费与经济增长之间的关系,表明能源消费与经济增长之间存在着长期均衡关系。基于误差修正模型的格兰杰因果关系检验结果表明,存在着能源消费到经济增长的短期格兰杰因果关系,经济增长到能源消费的长期格兰杰因果关系。对时间序列数据H-P滤波后的关系分析表明,能源消费与经济增长的协整关系受经济增长和能源消费共同波动的影响。
基于LMDI分解模型对生产能源强度和工业能源强度影响因素进行了完全分解研究,得出累计技术效应是生产能源强度和工业能源强度变化的主要原因;累计产业结构效应导致生产能源强度变化的位居其次,也是不容忽视的因素。技术效应的进一步分析显示,10大高耗能行业的技术效应是生产能源强度和工业能源强度降低的主要贡献者。这给我国节能减排政策提供了方向。
运用计量方法分别研究了煤炭价格和石油价格对其需求的影响,得出长期内煤炭价格上涨能够一定程度上抑制煤炭需求,而长期内石油价格上涨对石油需求影响可以忽略不计。
分析了影响我国能源需求的主要影响因素,构建了我国能源价格指数,在此基础上,研究了我国能源需求和经济增长、能源价格、产业结构之间的长期均衡关系,根据变量的不同趋势预测了我国未来能源需求,结果显示我国未来能源需求量很大。
最后,利用区域经济学的理论,分析了我国能源消费、电力消费以及CO_2排放省区之间的配置效果,发现既不符合效率原则,也不符合公平性原则。分别研究我国的节能和节电潜力以及CO_2减排潜力。分析了影响我国能源强度(电力强度)和CO_2排放强度的影响因素,并给出了相应的政策建议。
As the driving force of economic development,energy plays a vital important role in economic development.Since China's reform and opening up,the rapid economic development attract worldwide attention.Along with rapid economic development, China's energy consumption has a substantial growth.Energy shortage has become a bottleneck issue to further economic development in China.At the same time,the environmental pollution caused by the energy consumption is also getting to the limits of the environment.Under this background,the research of the relationship between energy and the economy as well as the analysis of the main factors of energy efficiency is the key to China's energy-saving and emission reduction.In this dissertation,based on modem econometric techniques and economic theory,the relationship China's energy and economy as well as the main factors of energy efficiency are system studied which not only has great theoretical significance but also has very important policy implications.The main research objects and resuls are:
1.Cointegration technique is applied to research the he relationship between energy consumption and economic growth.The estimation results indicate that energy consumption and economic growth are co-integrated.Based on error correction model (ECM) Granger causality relationship between energy consumption and economic growth was tested.The estimation results indicate that there is Granger causality running from energy consumption to economic growth in short-term and Granger causality running from economic growth to energy consumption in long-term.The relationships of H-P filtered time-series data are analyzed.The results show that the cointegration relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is influenced by the comovement of economic growth and energy consumption.
2.Baesd on LMDI decomposition model,the factors of production energy intensity and industry energy intensity are studied.The research indicates that the accumulated technological effect has main effect on production energy intensity and industry energy intensity changes.The ccumulated industrial structure effect yields a relatively larger share of production energy intensity changes,which can not be ignored.The further analysis of technological effect show that the top 10 high-energy-consuming sub-sectors technological effect is the main contributors in the decline of production energy intensity and industry energy intensity.The results give us direction for energy-saving and emission reduction policy in China.
3.Using econometric methods,the relationship between coal price and coal demand as well as oil price and oil demand are studied respectively.The results indicate that coal prices rise can curb demand for coal and oil prices rise has slightly impact on oil demand.
4.The main factors of China's energy demand are analyzed and China's energy price indices are constructed.Based on this,the long-run equilibrium relationship among China's energy demand,economic growth,energy prices,and industrial structure is studied.According to the future trend of different variables,the future energy demand in China is forecasted.The results indicate that China's future energy demand will increase sharply.
Finally,based on regional economics,the allocation effects of energy consumption, electricity consumption and CO_2 emissions among provinces are analyzed.The research results indicated that the allocation of energy consumption,electricity consumption and CO_2 emissions not only is inconsistent with the principle of efficiency,but also is inconsistent with the principle of fairness.The energy-saving,electricity-saving potential,CO_2 emission reduction potential are studied respectively.The factors of China's energy intensity and the CO_2 emission intensity are researched and the corresponding policy recommendations are given.
引文
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