人民币汇率变动的FDI及其贸易结构效应研究
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摘要
汇率作为国家间经济联系的纽带,在国际金融和国际贸易活动中执行着价格转换职能,从而成为调节一国国际收支平衡的重要杠杆。本论文选择人民币有效汇率作为主要分析对象,从实证角度回答人民币汇率变动的FDI效应及其对贸易结构各层面的影响,运用数量经济学理论进行科学的研究,找出具体的相关因素及作用机制。最后根据实证研究的结果提出化解“双顺差”结构导致的外部失衡,促进我国经济内外均衡发展的政策建议。
本研究由绪论、相关理论、效应分析及结论等六部分构成,主要的内容及结论如下:
首先,在绪论部分考察了本研究的背景和意义,回顾了相关文献,提出了解决问题的相应工具和方法。然后介绍了汇率变动的FDI及其贸易结构效应的相关理论。包括对人民币实际有效汇率的分析、FDI贸易效应理论和贸易结构决定理论,并从理论上分析了汇率和FDI与贸易结构之间的关联性。人民币汇率通过价格传导实现资源的再配置,影响FDI流入,最终通过影响需求结构和资本要素供给结构导致国内产业结构乃至贸易结构的调整。因此可充分发挥汇率作为价格信号的作用以便更加有效地配置资源,采用更加灵活的汇率机制,为中国宏观调控政策留下更加广阔的运用空间;同时,通过汇率变化影响国际资本的流动,为FDI的流入创造积极有利的环境,制定有利于产业结构向产业链高端发展的FDI引资政策,使经济结构整体上在适应动态比较优势的基础上实现优化升级。
其次,从新新贸易理论下的单个企业的组织选择入手,探讨汇率变动对跨国企业投资决策的战略选择影响,进而通过汇率的价格传导效应,用协整检验以及VAR模型与冲击分解,研究了人民币汇率波动对流入中国FDI总量的影响。认为实际有效汇率对FDI总额影响并不显著,人民币一定幅度的升值不会导致直接投资流入的减少。只要加快技术创新、内需培养与市场规模扩大,我国将会避免劳动力成本提高、货币升值等不利因素,继续保持对FDI的吸引力。外商直接投资是人民币升值的重要原因,这种效应的产生与外商直接投资的结构有关。通过外商直接投资利用政策的调整,可以在一定程度上缓解人民币升值的压力;人民币升值会反作用于外商直接投资,随着人民币的升值,我国的外商直接投资结构将会发生相应的变化。
再次,用实证方法,分别从出口商品结构、贸易方式结构、贸易模式结构、区域结构和进出口国别结构五个角度研究人民币汇率变动与FDI对贸易结构的影响。得出如下结论:人民币实际有效汇率升值与外商直接投资对我国出口商品结构产生正的优化作用;人民币实际有效汇率对我国贸易方式结构的影响不显著,而FDI对贸易方式结构的影响显著为正;人民币实际有效汇率升值对制造业产品产业内贸易起到优化作用。FDI对我国产业内贸易,特别是垂直型产业内贸易均有积极的促进作用,对我国水平型产业内贸易影响不显著;人民币实际有效汇率对三区域的进出口影响显著负相关;FDI投资分布区域结构对贸易区域结构影响较大;不同经济体对华投资的贸易倾向变化趋势具有明显差异。正确认识汇率对FDI来源结构影响进而影响进出口国别结构,对于我国制定汇率、投资和贸易一体化的经济政策,消除汇率、外资政策和外贸政策相互冲突的状况,促进改革我国进出口市场多元化具有一定的指导意义。
最后,进行总结,找到导致中国经济外部失衡的结构性因素,结合研究结论提出了相关的政策建议,如加大汇率变动幅度和实行更有弹性的汇率制度及有利于贸易结构调整FDI策略选择。并在论文结束部分提出后续研究展望。
Exchange rate, as the key economic link among countries, plays an important role of price conversion in international finance and international trade, thus it becomes an important lever of BOP adjustment. This dissertation chooses effective exchange rate of RMB (REER) as the main analyzing object, using quantitative economics theory, makes research on the FDI effect and foreign trade structure effect under the RMB exchange rate change in empirical way. Finally, puts forward relevant policy suggestions to resolve the "double surpluses" structure, realize the balance of international payment and promote the balanced development of the economy.
The dissertation is composed of six parts: introduction, related theories, effect analysis, conclusions and so on. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:
Firstly, the dissertation introduces thebackground and meaning of the research, and then introduces the related historical documents, puts forward the research methods, and then introduces the related theory of FDI effects and foreign trade structure effects under RMB exchange rate change, including the analysis on real exchange rate of RMB, the theory of relationship between FDI and international trade, and the theory of decision on foreign trade structure. And also makes theoretical analysis on the relevance of exchange rate, FDI and foreign trade structure. RMB makes relocation of resource and makes influence on FDI inflows through its price passing-through mechanism, and then makes adjustment on industrial structure and foreign trade structure through the changes of demand structure and capital supply structure.
Secondly, makes research on the investment decision of Multinational Corporation under the exchange rate change. And then makes research on the effects of FDI inflow under the RMB exchange rate change with methods of cointegration test, VAR model and shock decomposition. Reaches the following conclusion that the impact of real exchange rate change to FDI inflow is not obvious. The appreciation of RMB will not cause the decreasing inflow of FDI, as long as accelerates technological innovation, cultivates inner market and enlarges market scale. FDI inflow is an important reason that causes RMB appreciation, which is connected with the different investment structure of FDI. The pressure of RMB appreciation could be alleviated through the adjustment of FDI policy; with the appreciation of RMB, the FDI structure could be changed accordingly.
Thirdly, makes research in empirical methods on foreign trade structure effects from the following five angles: export commodity structure, trade pattern structure, trade modes structure, trade regional structure and import and export country structure. Reaching the following conclusions: REER appreciation and FDI will optimize the export commodity structure; REER has no obvious impact on trade pattern structure, while FDI has significant effects on foreign trade pattern structure. FDI can positively promote the vertical intra-industry trade and has no obvious impact on horizontal intra-industry trade. REER has obviously negatively correlation with imports and exports of three areas. Different economies have obvious different investment tendency. According to the FDI sources, FDI from Japan has a substitution effect on the bilateral import and export; FDI from Singapore has a substitution effect on export and a complementary effect on import. While the United States, Germany and South Korea failed T test. Correct understanding of impact of REER to FDI sources and to import and export countries structure will be benefit to make economic policies on exchange rate and integration of investment and trade, and eliminate the confliction of exchange rate policy and foreign trade policy.
Finally, reacheds the conclusions of the total dissertation, puts forward related policies and the next prospect of research.
本研究由绪论、相关理论、效应分析及结论等六部分构成,主要的内容及结论如下:
首先,在绪论部分考察了本研究的背景和意义,回顾了相关文献,提出了解决问题的相应工具和方法。然后介绍了汇率变动的FDI及其贸易结构效应的相关理论。包括对人民币实际有效汇率的分析、FDI贸易效应理论和贸易结构决定理论,并从理论上分析了汇率和FDI与贸易结构之间的关联性。人民币汇率通过价格传导实现资源的再配置,影响FDI流入,最终通过影响需求结构和资本要素供给结构导致国内产业结构乃至贸易结构的调整。因此可充分发挥汇率作为价格信号的作用以便更加有效地配置资源,采用更加灵活的汇率机制,为中国宏观调控政策留下更加广阔的运用空间;同时,通过汇率变化影响国际资本的流动,为FDI的流入创造积极有利的环境,制定有利于产业结构向产业链高端发展的FDI引资政策,使经济结构整体上在适应动态比较优势的基础上实现优化升级。
其次,从新新贸易理论下的单个企业的组织选择入手,探讨汇率变动对跨国企业投资决策的战略选择影响,进而通过汇率的价格传导效应,用协整检验以及VAR模型与冲击分解,研究了人民币汇率波动对流入中国FDI总量的影响。认为实际有效汇率对FDI总额影响并不显著,人民币一定幅度的升值不会导致直接投资流入的减少。只要加快技术创新、内需培养与市场规模扩大,我国将会避免劳动力成本提高、货币升值等不利因素,继续保持对FDI的吸引力。外商直接投资是人民币升值的重要原因,这种效应的产生与外商直接投资的结构有关。通过外商直接投资利用政策的调整,可以在一定程度上缓解人民币升值的压力;人民币升值会反作用于外商直接投资,随着人民币的升值,我国的外商直接投资结构将会发生相应的变化。
再次,用实证方法,分别从出口商品结构、贸易方式结构、贸易模式结构、区域结构和进出口国别结构五个角度研究人民币汇率变动与FDI对贸易结构的影响。得出如下结论:人民币实际有效汇率升值与外商直接投资对我国出口商品结构产生正的优化作用;人民币实际有效汇率对我国贸易方式结构的影响不显著,而FDI对贸易方式结构的影响显著为正;人民币实际有效汇率升值对制造业产品产业内贸易起到优化作用。FDI对我国产业内贸易,特别是垂直型产业内贸易均有积极的促进作用,对我国水平型产业内贸易影响不显著;人民币实际有效汇率对三区域的进出口影响显著负相关;FDI投资分布区域结构对贸易区域结构影响较大;不同经济体对华投资的贸易倾向变化趋势具有明显差异。正确认识汇率对FDI来源结构影响进而影响进出口国别结构,对于我国制定汇率、投资和贸易一体化的经济政策,消除汇率、外资政策和外贸政策相互冲突的状况,促进改革我国进出口市场多元化具有一定的指导意义。
最后,进行总结,找到导致中国经济外部失衡的结构性因素,结合研究结论提出了相关的政策建议,如加大汇率变动幅度和实行更有弹性的汇率制度及有利于贸易结构调整FDI策略选择。并在论文结束部分提出后续研究展望。
Exchange rate, as the key economic link among countries, plays an important role of price conversion in international finance and international trade, thus it becomes an important lever of BOP adjustment. This dissertation chooses effective exchange rate of RMB (REER) as the main analyzing object, using quantitative economics theory, makes research on the FDI effect and foreign trade structure effect under the RMB exchange rate change in empirical way. Finally, puts forward relevant policy suggestions to resolve the "double surpluses" structure, realize the balance of international payment and promote the balanced development of the economy.
The dissertation is composed of six parts: introduction, related theories, effect analysis, conclusions and so on. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:
Firstly, the dissertation introduces thebackground and meaning of the research, and then introduces the related historical documents, puts forward the research methods, and then introduces the related theory of FDI effects and foreign trade structure effects under RMB exchange rate change, including the analysis on real exchange rate of RMB, the theory of relationship between FDI and international trade, and the theory of decision on foreign trade structure. And also makes theoretical analysis on the relevance of exchange rate, FDI and foreign trade structure. RMB makes relocation of resource and makes influence on FDI inflows through its price passing-through mechanism, and then makes adjustment on industrial structure and foreign trade structure through the changes of demand structure and capital supply structure.
Secondly, makes research on the investment decision of Multinational Corporation under the exchange rate change. And then makes research on the effects of FDI inflow under the RMB exchange rate change with methods of cointegration test, VAR model and shock decomposition. Reaches the following conclusion that the impact of real exchange rate change to FDI inflow is not obvious. The appreciation of RMB will not cause the decreasing inflow of FDI, as long as accelerates technological innovation, cultivates inner market and enlarges market scale. FDI inflow is an important reason that causes RMB appreciation, which is connected with the different investment structure of FDI. The pressure of RMB appreciation could be alleviated through the adjustment of FDI policy; with the appreciation of RMB, the FDI structure could be changed accordingly.
Thirdly, makes research in empirical methods on foreign trade structure effects from the following five angles: export commodity structure, trade pattern structure, trade modes structure, trade regional structure and import and export country structure. Reaching the following conclusions: REER appreciation and FDI will optimize the export commodity structure; REER has no obvious impact on trade pattern structure, while FDI has significant effects on foreign trade pattern structure. FDI can positively promote the vertical intra-industry trade and has no obvious impact on horizontal intra-industry trade. REER has obviously negatively correlation with imports and exports of three areas. Different economies have obvious different investment tendency. According to the FDI sources, FDI from Japan has a substitution effect on the bilateral import and export; FDI from Singapore has a substitution effect on export and a complementary effect on import. While the United States, Germany and South Korea failed T test. Correct understanding of impact of REER to FDI sources and to import and export countries structure will be benefit to make economic policies on exchange rate and integration of investment and trade, and eliminate the confliction of exchange rate policy and foreign trade policy.
Finally, reacheds the conclusions of the total dissertation, puts forward related policies and the next prospect of research.
引文
①王洪庆.外商直接投资的贸易效应研究[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2007
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