低碳发展模式下中国核电产业及核电经济性研究
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摘要
本文在分析、吸收现有的国内外文献基础上,运用数量经济学、产业经济学、环境经济学、管理学等相关学科的基本理论和方法,基于低碳经济发展模式与中国面临巨大碳减排压力的背景,结合中国核电进入大规模建设阶段的现状,对中国经济发展重工化与碳排放的关系进行具体分析研究,论证了核电为何能够作为低碳经济模式下中国重工业化可持续发展的大规模基荷电源。
首先,本文从工业各行业与碳排放的关系着手,研究了工业产业结构与碳排放的关系以及碳排放的影响因素,并在此基础上,进一步研究了重工业(以高耗能行业为代表)的电力消费与碳排放的关系,构建了低碳经济下重工业发展与碳排放的脱钩／耦合模型。研究表明,在经济可持续发展的基础上,实现GDP与碳排放的相对脱钩或者绝对脱钩是达到低碳经济条件首要条件。针对现阶段的中国而言,寻求能够从根本上保障发展的、可大规模建造的低碳基荷电源是我们面临的紧迫任务。
其次,结合国家核电规划,分析了国内铀燃料供给现状,并在此基础上引入铀燃料平均燃耗、容量因子等参数,建立了铀燃料需求量模型,并依据需求模型预测2020年与2050年中国铀燃料的需求与缺口,给出了相应的缺口弥补方案。
在研究核电对碳减排的贡献时,本文采用ACM 0002基准线方法学计算核电实现的温室气体减排量,建立了核电对碳减排贡献量的计算模型,并以实例进行了验证。建立了碳交易价格的ARMA预测模型,预测了2012年CER和EUA价格。
第三,本文汇总分析了相关文献及相关数据,计算计入碳价的平准化核电与火电发电成本,对计入碳价的各种参数下平准化核电与火电发电成本进行了比较,并结合中国核电现状修正了核电造价模型。对设立的低碳情景下核电产业发展的4个情景方案进行了比较,在选取若干不同参数时,从不同的角度分析,得出各情景下最优方案不同,可以根据不同的目标选择不同的方案。
第四,建立了基于云理论的核电实物期权的Black-Scholes模型,对核电投资决策进行分析,得出运用基于云理论的实物期权的方法可以更全面的分析核电项目中存在的不确定性及风险因素,更合理地评价核电投资决策,为核电产业投资的决策者提供一种新方法、新思路。
本文研究的结论表明,在以核电为主要电源的经济—能源生态链下,核电可以支撑工业重工化发展模式,并且作为低碳基荷电源,核电无疑是低碳经济发展模式的首要电源选择,而且可持续发展的低碳发展模式在核电的驱动下形成工业重工化—核电—低碳经济良性循环机制。因此,从碳排放、经济性、入网成本、工程建造等方面看,核电最适合成为大规模建造的基荷电源。
Based on the analysis and absorption of the existing literatures domestically and internationlly, by using basic theories and methods in the fields of quantitative economics, industrial economics, environmental economics, management and other related disciplines, this paper elaborates concrete analysis of the researches about the relationship between china heavy industry and carbon emissions in economic development. Under the background of huge pressure from reduction of carbon emission, this paper also demonstrates why nuclear power could be the optimal sustainable large-scale baseload power in the mode of low carbon economy with the development of china's heavy industrialization, combining with current China nuclear power construction status.
First of all, the paper starts from studying the relationships between various industries and carbon emissions, and investigates the connection of the industrial structure and carbon emissions and other factors which may impact carbon emission. Furtherly, the paper explores the rlationship of the heavy industry (as represented by the high energy-consuming industries) power consumption and carbon emissions, and composes an decoupling&coupling model in a low carbon economy of heavy industry development and carbon emissions. Research indicates that, in the context of sustainable economic development, achieving the relative or absolute decoupling between GDP and carbon emissions, is the prerequisite to realize low carbon economy. China, for at this stage, confronts the urgent task of seeking low-carbon baseload power supply, which could be large-scale constructed to guaranteen the needs for the development fundamentally.
Secondly, in this paper, being integrated with national nuclear power layout and analysis of current domestic supply of uranium fuel, uranium fuel demand model has been established with introducing the parameters, such as the average fuel consumption of fuel into uranium, capacity factor. Consequently, the demand and the gap of uranium fuel have been forecasted during the year 2020 and 2050, with the corresponding making up program being provided.
In the study of nuclear power's contribution to carbon emissions, this paper introduces ACM 0002 baseline methodology for calculating nuclear power to achieve greenhouse gas emission reductions and establishes a calculation model to evaluate nuclear power contribution to the amount of carbon emissions, which has also been verified by examples. Futhermore, it also establishes a carbon trading price of the ARMA prediction model to predict the CER and EUA prices in 2012.
Thirdly, the paper collects and analyzes the relevant literature and related data, calculating levelized price of carbon nuclear power and thermal power generation cost, as well as comparing the cost by taking the price of carbon into account. It also amends nuclear power cost model with the integration of China's nuclear power status. Moreover, four scenarios established in low-carbon assumption have been compared by selecting numbers of different parameters from different perspectives. The optimal solutions could be obtained in different situations and different programs could be selected according to different objectives.
Fourthly, the paper establishes Black-Scholes Option model of nuclear power based on cloud theory. By using cloud-based method of real options theory, which could be seen as a more comprehensive method of analysing the nuclear power programmes'uncertainty and potential risk factors, the nuclear power investment decisions might be assessed more reasonably. At the same time, a new method and fresh thoughts could be provided for the investment decision-makers in the nuclear power industry.
This paper concludes that nuclear power is the primary power supply in the ecological chain of economy & energy, which can support heavy industry development model. And as a low-carbon baseload power, nuclear power is undoubtedly the most important low-carbon economic development mode power supply choice. A virtuous circle mechanism of low-carbon economy driven by the formation of the nuclear power industry-heavy industry-nuclear power to gain sustainable development of low-carbon development model could be possible.Therefore, nuclear power could be most suitable base-load power.for large-scale construction from the perspectives ofcarbon emissions, economy, network cost, project construction and other aspects.
首先,本文从工业各行业与碳排放的关系着手,研究了工业产业结构与碳排放的关系以及碳排放的影响因素,并在此基础上,进一步研究了重工业(以高耗能行业为代表)的电力消费与碳排放的关系,构建了低碳经济下重工业发展与碳排放的脱钩／耦合模型。研究表明,在经济可持续发展的基础上,实现GDP与碳排放的相对脱钩或者绝对脱钩是达到低碳经济条件首要条件。针对现阶段的中国而言,寻求能够从根本上保障发展的、可大规模建造的低碳基荷电源是我们面临的紧迫任务。
其次,结合国家核电规划,分析了国内铀燃料供给现状,并在此基础上引入铀燃料平均燃耗、容量因子等参数,建立了铀燃料需求量模型,并依据需求模型预测2020年与2050年中国铀燃料的需求与缺口,给出了相应的缺口弥补方案。
在研究核电对碳减排的贡献时,本文采用ACM 0002基准线方法学计算核电实现的温室气体减排量,建立了核电对碳减排贡献量的计算模型,并以实例进行了验证。建立了碳交易价格的ARMA预测模型,预测了2012年CER和EUA价格。
第三,本文汇总分析了相关文献及相关数据,计算计入碳价的平准化核电与火电发电成本,对计入碳价的各种参数下平准化核电与火电发电成本进行了比较,并结合中国核电现状修正了核电造价模型。对设立的低碳情景下核电产业发展的4个情景方案进行了比较,在选取若干不同参数时,从不同的角度分析,得出各情景下最优方案不同,可以根据不同的目标选择不同的方案。
第四,建立了基于云理论的核电实物期权的Black-Scholes模型,对核电投资决策进行分析,得出运用基于云理论的实物期权的方法可以更全面的分析核电项目中存在的不确定性及风险因素,更合理地评价核电投资决策,为核电产业投资的决策者提供一种新方法、新思路。
本文研究的结论表明,在以核电为主要电源的经济—能源生态链下,核电可以支撑工业重工化发展模式,并且作为低碳基荷电源,核电无疑是低碳经济发展模式的首要电源选择,而且可持续发展的低碳发展模式在核电的驱动下形成工业重工化—核电—低碳经济良性循环机制。因此,从碳排放、经济性、入网成本、工程建造等方面看,核电最适合成为大规模建造的基荷电源。
Based on the analysis and absorption of the existing literatures domestically and internationlly, by using basic theories and methods in the fields of quantitative economics, industrial economics, environmental economics, management and other related disciplines, this paper elaborates concrete analysis of the researches about the relationship between china heavy industry and carbon emissions in economic development. Under the background of huge pressure from reduction of carbon emission, this paper also demonstrates why nuclear power could be the optimal sustainable large-scale baseload power in the mode of low carbon economy with the development of china's heavy industrialization, combining with current China nuclear power construction status.
First of all, the paper starts from studying the relationships between various industries and carbon emissions, and investigates the connection of the industrial structure and carbon emissions and other factors which may impact carbon emission. Furtherly, the paper explores the rlationship of the heavy industry (as represented by the high energy-consuming industries) power consumption and carbon emissions, and composes an decoupling&coupling model in a low carbon economy of heavy industry development and carbon emissions. Research indicates that, in the context of sustainable economic development, achieving the relative or absolute decoupling between GDP and carbon emissions, is the prerequisite to realize low carbon economy. China, for at this stage, confronts the urgent task of seeking low-carbon baseload power supply, which could be large-scale constructed to guaranteen the needs for the development fundamentally.
Secondly, in this paper, being integrated with national nuclear power layout and analysis of current domestic supply of uranium fuel, uranium fuel demand model has been established with introducing the parameters, such as the average fuel consumption of fuel into uranium, capacity factor. Consequently, the demand and the gap of uranium fuel have been forecasted during the year 2020 and 2050, with the corresponding making up program being provided.
In the study of nuclear power's contribution to carbon emissions, this paper introduces ACM 0002 baseline methodology for calculating nuclear power to achieve greenhouse gas emission reductions and establishes a calculation model to evaluate nuclear power contribution to the amount of carbon emissions, which has also been verified by examples. Futhermore, it also establishes a carbon trading price of the ARMA prediction model to predict the CER and EUA prices in 2012.
Thirdly, the paper collects and analyzes the relevant literature and related data, calculating levelized price of carbon nuclear power and thermal power generation cost, as well as comparing the cost by taking the price of carbon into account. It also amends nuclear power cost model with the integration of China's nuclear power status. Moreover, four scenarios established in low-carbon assumption have been compared by selecting numbers of different parameters from different perspectives. The optimal solutions could be obtained in different situations and different programs could be selected according to different objectives.
Fourthly, the paper establishes Black-Scholes Option model of nuclear power based on cloud theory. By using cloud-based method of real options theory, which could be seen as a more comprehensive method of analysing the nuclear power programmes'uncertainty and potential risk factors, the nuclear power investment decisions might be assessed more reasonably. At the same time, a new method and fresh thoughts could be provided for the investment decision-makers in the nuclear power industry.
This paper concludes that nuclear power is the primary power supply in the ecological chain of economy & energy, which can support heavy industry development model. And as a low-carbon baseload power, nuclear power is undoubtedly the most important low-carbon economic development mode power supply choice. A virtuous circle mechanism of low-carbon economy driven by the formation of the nuclear power industry-heavy industry-nuclear power to gain sustainable development of low-carbon development model could be possible.Therefore, nuclear power could be most suitable base-load power.for large-scale construction from the perspectives ofcarbon emissions, economy, network cost, project construction and other aspects.
引文
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