渭河流域（干流地区）人地关系地域系统演变及其优化研究
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摘要
流域人地关系地域系统是一个自然-经济-社会的复合巨系统,是人与地以流域为依托形成的一个多层次、多变量、时间和空间相协调的耦合系统。论文结合地理学、系统科学等有关理论,以渭河流域(干流地区)为研究对象,在实际调查的基础上,利用历史分析、动态耦合模型、空间分析、系统动力学模型等多种技术手段对渭河流域(干流地区)人地系统的演变过程、现状格局、优化调控、空间管理等进行了实证分析,以期为流域人地系统的优化调控和可持续发展提供科学的决策依据。主要研究结论为：
(1)在对国内外流域人地系统研究进行详尽回顾与梳理后认为,国际学者普遍关注流域发展规划与管理的研究,研究内容涉及流域发展规划和管理的起源、类型、管理的目的、面临的问题、流域环境系统规划等多个方面,这也引起了我国学者对流域治理的关注；同时,国内外学者在流域人地系统相互作用的过程模拟和情景分析、流域人地关系地域系统作用机理、流域人地系统可持续发展等方面也进行了一定的研究；在研究方法上,主成分分析法、灰色关联分析、协调度模型、综合评价指标模型、系统动力学模型、地理信息系统、决策支持系统等定量分析手段已经应用于国内外流域人地关系地域系统的研究。当前应加强多学科融合,加强流域人地相互作用机理的研究,注重新技术方法的应用与动态仿真模拟等方面的研究。
(2)对渭河流域(干流地区)人地系统演变历史过程的分析表明,原始社会时期本区域人地关系处于原始的、低级的协调阶段,人类被动地适应资源环境；农业社会时期人文因素在人地关系演变中担负着越来越重要的角色,生态环境随着人类社会经济发展水平的逐步提高进入缓慢退化阶段,人地关系演替的速度逐渐加快。
对近10年来渭河流域(干流地区)人地关系地域系统的时间耦合研究表明：1996～2006年间渭河流域(干流地区)社会经济发展水平呈波动上升趋势,资源环境状况对经济社会发展响应明显,目前,渭河流域已处于过度开发阶段,资源环境危机也处于潜伏期,若不注意环境保护、过度开发资源,将很快跨越现在的阶段,持续增长的经济水平和不断提高的消费水平将使资源环境系统不堪重负,人地系统关系快速恶化,系统将进入负增长阶段。
以2005年为截面数据对人地系统的空间格局的分析表明：渭河流域(干流地区)人地关系地域系统空间分布以拮抗型为主,磨合型次之。磨合型地区主要分布在陇海铁路及GZ45天(水)西(安)段,这类市县区经济规模较大、城市规模结构较健全、需提高发展的质量与效率；而人地关系反馈作用最强的拮抗型地区分布在渭河流域(干流地区)的北部和东部,这类区县中有部分已经具有一定的经济基础和技术创新能力、但发展基础薄弱、环保意识尚未形成,还有一些是以农业生产为主、但因长期的农业生产对水土资源的不合理开发利用、产生了许多生态环境问题;低水平协调型区县位于秦岭山地和黄龙山地区,这类区县经济社会发展水平较低、人地之间的反馈作用不强、在渭河流域具有较高生态功能价值。
(3)基于系统动力学模型的不同情景下渭河流域(干流地区)人地关系地域系统仿真模拟。通过对经济高速发展模式、缺水反馈模式、缺水污染反馈模式、调水耦合模式等4种方案的仿真模拟发现：调水调控模式将区外水资源引入渭河流域,在一定程度上减轻了环境和资源压力,使经济保持一定的增长速度,是目前对渭河流域人地系统进行调控最可取的方案；根据此方案,到2025年,渭河流域(干流地区)的总用水量应控制在110亿m3左右,GDP增长率控制在年均10%左右的增长速度,人口城市化率控制在52%以内,并且要积极实施节水等环保措施以提高水资源的利用率。
(4)对渭河流域(干流地区)4种空间分布类型区的空间管理表明：对于磨合型地区,应协调各市县的要素流动、产业布局、生态环境保护与基础设施建设,形成产业-城镇密集带,构筑区域生态网络体系；对于拮抗型可开发区,应将经济发展对生态环境的影响降到最低限度,还要注意承载农业区和低水平协调型地区的人口转移；对于拮抗型农业区要提高农产品的长期、稳定供给为主要任务,增强土地生产潜力,因地制宜发展特色农业；对于低水平协调区域的空间管理应增强提供水源涵养、维护生物多样性等生态服务能力,因地制宜地发展资源环境可承载的适宜产业,引导超载人口逐步有序转移,以建设成人与自然和谐相处的区域。
Man-land areal system is a nature-economy-society complex system, which is a multi-level, multivariable, time-space coordination coupling system formed by man and land in the basin. Taking the Wei river Basin (mainstream) as a case, based on field investigation and the combination of the theories in geography and system science, this thesis discussed the evolution process, situation pattern, analogue simulation, space management of man-land areal system in river basin by using a wide variety of technical means, such as the method of historical analysis, dynamic coupling model, factor analysis, space analysis method, system dynamics model, in order to providing scientific decision basis for the optimal regulation and sustainable development of river basin. Main results of this dissertation are as follows:
(1)The author pointed out the weak side of this research field at present, and prospected the main research directions in the future. These studies showed that it is general for international scholars to pay close attention to the research of planning and management of basin development. The main contents involve the origin, type, management objective, problems of planning and management of river basin development, and which also caused Chinese scholars to the concern on watershed management. International scholars and domestic scholars also studied on the process simulation and scene analysis on the interaction of man-land areal system in river basin, including historical analysis and dynamic monitoring, situational analysis, sustainable development of man-land areal system in river basin. Meanwhile, the research on mechanism between human and land of man-land areal system in river basin was developed, including basic theory of man-land areal system in river basin, difference on different types of man-land interaction in river basin. The quantitative analytical methods, such as principal component analysis, gray relational analysis, coordination model, comprehensive evaluation index model, system dynamics model, were generally adopted to appraise man-land relationship areal system in river basin,. Geographic information system and decision support system have also been applied in the research on man-land areal system in river basin. Although a series of theories related to the research on the man-land areal system in river basin have emerged recently, there are a lot of weak points which should attract our attention. For example, theoretical studies and approach applications are still insufficient, and the research system is still not formed. Current research is generally lack of the comprehensive study of the structure evolution, the studies on the coupling mechanism and model of the factors between nature and human, summarized principle researches, quantitative analysis, dynamic analysis and the process of simulation and prediction in different scenarios of man-land relationship in river basin. The future research on man-land areal system in river basin should strengthen the multi-disciplinary integration, the mechanism of interaction of man and earth in river basin, the enrichment of research approaches and the application of new technical method and the dynamic simulation.
(2) The analysis of man-land areal system historical evolution process in Wei river basin (mainstream) indicated that:man-land relationship in the period of primitive society was at the original and low-grade coordinate stage, human passively adapted to the environment. In the period of agricultural society, humanistic factors became more and more important in the evolution of man-land relationship, ecological environment was being at the stage of slow degradation, the succession of man-land relationship sped up.
Time coupling research of man-land areal system shows that:the socio-economic level in mainstream basin of Wei river has increased volatility from 1996 to 2006 accompanied with the fluctuations of resource-environmental state. The resource-environmental sub-system shows repeated fluctuations status in the turn of the deteriorating and improvement. At present, man-land relationship areal system in Wei river basin is at over-exploitation phase. Also, the crisis of resource-environmental is in the incubation period. If we don't pay attention to environmental protection and go on to over exploit resources, the stage will be passed quickly. At that time, the growth in economic level and rising level of consumption of resources will overwhelm resource-environmental system and lead to environmental quality continuously decrease. Then the relations between the two systems will deteriorate, also the socio-economic system development will be constrained by resource-environmental system. The system will enter a phase of negative growth.
The spatial pattern of man-land areal system based on the data in 2005 showed that:It can be divided into four types in Wei river basin, that is harmony, amelioration, confliction and low-level harmony. In 2005, the confliction is the dominant type, followed by amelioration in this area. The amelioration region is mainly distributed along the Longhai railway and GZ45 highway section of Tian(shui) Xi(an), where the economy is in large scale, the cities have complete structure and the quality and efficiency of development need to be improved. The confliction district with the strongest feedback effects of man-land relationship is distributed in the north and east of Wei river basin (mainstream). Some of these counties and districts have certain economic base and technical innovation ability, but the foundation of development is still weak; some other counties and districts focus on agricultural production, but long-term unreasonable development of water and soil resources has led to many ecological environment problems. The low-level harmony region located in Qinling and Huanglong mountains, where the social and economic development is in low level, feedback effects of man-land relationship is weak, and ecological function value is high in Wei river basin.
(3)It is established dynamic model of man-land areal system in Wei river Basin (mainstream), by means of SD method and Vensim PLE software, and by taking utilization of water resources as the main clues. Through adjustment of water utilization and pollution index, the four scenarios of the simulation models during 2005-2025 have been established, which are the high-speed economic development mode, the water-lack feedback mode, the water-lack and environment-pollution feedback mode, and the water diversion coupling mode. The results show that:The water diversion coupling model introduces water resources outside into Wei river basin, by which the situation of water shortage can be improved clearly, also the economic development can keep increasing at a sustainable high speed, so it is an effective way to balance the man land relationship in Wei River basin, i.e, by 2025, the total water consumption should reserve 110×108 m3, GDP should increase by 10% at an annual average growth rate, and population urbanization level should control in the range of 52%. The measures such as environmental protection measures, water quota of the second and third industry and increased water resources utilization should be implemented.
(4)The space management in the four kinds of spatial distributions in Wei river basin (mainstream) indicated that:For the amelioration region, the factors flow, industrial distribution, ecological environment protection and infrastructure construction should be coordinated to form the industry-urbanization dense zone and regional ecological network system. For developable confliction region, the influence of economic development on ecological environment should be minimized, and the attention should be paid to the admittance of population transfer from agricultural confliction region and low-level harmony region. For agricultural confliction region, the main task is to improve long-term and stable supplement of agriculture products, to strengthen land production potential and to develop characteristic agriculture according to local conditions. The spatial management in low-level harmony region is to enhance the ability of ecological service, such as water conservation and biological diversity, to develop suitable industries and to guide the ordered transfer of overload population, in order to construct the region for the harmony between man and nature.
(1)在对国内外流域人地系统研究进行详尽回顾与梳理后认为,国际学者普遍关注流域发展规划与管理的研究,研究内容涉及流域发展规划和管理的起源、类型、管理的目的、面临的问题、流域环境系统规划等多个方面,这也引起了我国学者对流域治理的关注；同时,国内外学者在流域人地系统相互作用的过程模拟和情景分析、流域人地关系地域系统作用机理、流域人地系统可持续发展等方面也进行了一定的研究；在研究方法上,主成分分析法、灰色关联分析、协调度模型、综合评价指标模型、系统动力学模型、地理信息系统、决策支持系统等定量分析手段已经应用于国内外流域人地关系地域系统的研究。当前应加强多学科融合,加强流域人地相互作用机理的研究,注重新技术方法的应用与动态仿真模拟等方面的研究。
(2)对渭河流域(干流地区)人地系统演变历史过程的分析表明,原始社会时期本区域人地关系处于原始的、低级的协调阶段,人类被动地适应资源环境；农业社会时期人文因素在人地关系演变中担负着越来越重要的角色,生态环境随着人类社会经济发展水平的逐步提高进入缓慢退化阶段,人地关系演替的速度逐渐加快。
对近10年来渭河流域(干流地区)人地关系地域系统的时间耦合研究表明：1996～2006年间渭河流域(干流地区)社会经济发展水平呈波动上升趋势,资源环境状况对经济社会发展响应明显,目前,渭河流域已处于过度开发阶段,资源环境危机也处于潜伏期,若不注意环境保护、过度开发资源,将很快跨越现在的阶段,持续增长的经济水平和不断提高的消费水平将使资源环境系统不堪重负,人地系统关系快速恶化,系统将进入负增长阶段。
以2005年为截面数据对人地系统的空间格局的分析表明：渭河流域(干流地区)人地关系地域系统空间分布以拮抗型为主,磨合型次之。磨合型地区主要分布在陇海铁路及GZ45天(水)西(安)段,这类市县区经济规模较大、城市规模结构较健全、需提高发展的质量与效率；而人地关系反馈作用最强的拮抗型地区分布在渭河流域(干流地区)的北部和东部,这类区县中有部分已经具有一定的经济基础和技术创新能力、但发展基础薄弱、环保意识尚未形成,还有一些是以农业生产为主、但因长期的农业生产对水土资源的不合理开发利用、产生了许多生态环境问题;低水平协调型区县位于秦岭山地和黄龙山地区,这类区县经济社会发展水平较低、人地之间的反馈作用不强、在渭河流域具有较高生态功能价值。
(3)基于系统动力学模型的不同情景下渭河流域(干流地区)人地关系地域系统仿真模拟。通过对经济高速发展模式、缺水反馈模式、缺水污染反馈模式、调水耦合模式等4种方案的仿真模拟发现：调水调控模式将区外水资源引入渭河流域,在一定程度上减轻了环境和资源压力,使经济保持一定的增长速度,是目前对渭河流域人地系统进行调控最可取的方案；根据此方案,到2025年,渭河流域(干流地区)的总用水量应控制在110亿m3左右,GDP增长率控制在年均10%左右的增长速度,人口城市化率控制在52%以内,并且要积极实施节水等环保措施以提高水资源的利用率。
(4)对渭河流域(干流地区)4种空间分布类型区的空间管理表明：对于磨合型地区,应协调各市县的要素流动、产业布局、生态环境保护与基础设施建设,形成产业-城镇密集带,构筑区域生态网络体系；对于拮抗型可开发区,应将经济发展对生态环境的影响降到最低限度,还要注意承载农业区和低水平协调型地区的人口转移；对于拮抗型农业区要提高农产品的长期、稳定供给为主要任务,增强土地生产潜力,因地制宜发展特色农业；对于低水平协调区域的空间管理应增强提供水源涵养、维护生物多样性等生态服务能力,因地制宜地发展资源环境可承载的适宜产业,引导超载人口逐步有序转移,以建设成人与自然和谐相处的区域。
Man-land areal system is a nature-economy-society complex system, which is a multi-level, multivariable, time-space coordination coupling system formed by man and land in the basin. Taking the Wei river Basin (mainstream) as a case, based on field investigation and the combination of the theories in geography and system science, this thesis discussed the evolution process, situation pattern, analogue simulation, space management of man-land areal system in river basin by using a wide variety of technical means, such as the method of historical analysis, dynamic coupling model, factor analysis, space analysis method, system dynamics model, in order to providing scientific decision basis for the optimal regulation and sustainable development of river basin. Main results of this dissertation are as follows:
(1)The author pointed out the weak side of this research field at present, and prospected the main research directions in the future. These studies showed that it is general for international scholars to pay close attention to the research of planning and management of basin development. The main contents involve the origin, type, management objective, problems of planning and management of river basin development, and which also caused Chinese scholars to the concern on watershed management. International scholars and domestic scholars also studied on the process simulation and scene analysis on the interaction of man-land areal system in river basin, including historical analysis and dynamic monitoring, situational analysis, sustainable development of man-land areal system in river basin. Meanwhile, the research on mechanism between human and land of man-land areal system in river basin was developed, including basic theory of man-land areal system in river basin, difference on different types of man-land interaction in river basin. The quantitative analytical methods, such as principal component analysis, gray relational analysis, coordination model, comprehensive evaluation index model, system dynamics model, were generally adopted to appraise man-land relationship areal system in river basin,. Geographic information system and decision support system have also been applied in the research on man-land areal system in river basin. Although a series of theories related to the research on the man-land areal system in river basin have emerged recently, there are a lot of weak points which should attract our attention. For example, theoretical studies and approach applications are still insufficient, and the research system is still not formed. Current research is generally lack of the comprehensive study of the structure evolution, the studies on the coupling mechanism and model of the factors between nature and human, summarized principle researches, quantitative analysis, dynamic analysis and the process of simulation and prediction in different scenarios of man-land relationship in river basin. The future research on man-land areal system in river basin should strengthen the multi-disciplinary integration, the mechanism of interaction of man and earth in river basin, the enrichment of research approaches and the application of new technical method and the dynamic simulation.
(2) The analysis of man-land areal system historical evolution process in Wei river basin (mainstream) indicated that:man-land relationship in the period of primitive society was at the original and low-grade coordinate stage, human passively adapted to the environment. In the period of agricultural society, humanistic factors became more and more important in the evolution of man-land relationship, ecological environment was being at the stage of slow degradation, the succession of man-land relationship sped up.
Time coupling research of man-land areal system shows that:the socio-economic level in mainstream basin of Wei river has increased volatility from 1996 to 2006 accompanied with the fluctuations of resource-environmental state. The resource-environmental sub-system shows repeated fluctuations status in the turn of the deteriorating and improvement. At present, man-land relationship areal system in Wei river basin is at over-exploitation phase. Also, the crisis of resource-environmental is in the incubation period. If we don't pay attention to environmental protection and go on to over exploit resources, the stage will be passed quickly. At that time, the growth in economic level and rising level of consumption of resources will overwhelm resource-environmental system and lead to environmental quality continuously decrease. Then the relations between the two systems will deteriorate, also the socio-economic system development will be constrained by resource-environmental system. The system will enter a phase of negative growth.
The spatial pattern of man-land areal system based on the data in 2005 showed that:It can be divided into four types in Wei river basin, that is harmony, amelioration, confliction and low-level harmony. In 2005, the confliction is the dominant type, followed by amelioration in this area. The amelioration region is mainly distributed along the Longhai railway and GZ45 highway section of Tian(shui) Xi(an), where the economy is in large scale, the cities have complete structure and the quality and efficiency of development need to be improved. The confliction district with the strongest feedback effects of man-land relationship is distributed in the north and east of Wei river basin (mainstream). Some of these counties and districts have certain economic base and technical innovation ability, but the foundation of development is still weak; some other counties and districts focus on agricultural production, but long-term unreasonable development of water and soil resources has led to many ecological environment problems. The low-level harmony region located in Qinling and Huanglong mountains, where the social and economic development is in low level, feedback effects of man-land relationship is weak, and ecological function value is high in Wei river basin.
(3)It is established dynamic model of man-land areal system in Wei river Basin (mainstream), by means of SD method and Vensim PLE software, and by taking utilization of water resources as the main clues. Through adjustment of water utilization and pollution index, the four scenarios of the simulation models during 2005-2025 have been established, which are the high-speed economic development mode, the water-lack feedback mode, the water-lack and environment-pollution feedback mode, and the water diversion coupling mode. The results show that:The water diversion coupling model introduces water resources outside into Wei river basin, by which the situation of water shortage can be improved clearly, also the economic development can keep increasing at a sustainable high speed, so it is an effective way to balance the man land relationship in Wei River basin, i.e, by 2025, the total water consumption should reserve 110×108 m3, GDP should increase by 10% at an annual average growth rate, and population urbanization level should control in the range of 52%. The measures such as environmental protection measures, water quota of the second and third industry and increased water resources utilization should be implemented.
(4)The space management in the four kinds of spatial distributions in Wei river basin (mainstream) indicated that:For the amelioration region, the factors flow, industrial distribution, ecological environment protection and infrastructure construction should be coordinated to form the industry-urbanization dense zone and regional ecological network system. For developable confliction region, the influence of economic development on ecological environment should be minimized, and the attention should be paid to the admittance of population transfer from agricultural confliction region and low-level harmony region. For agricultural confliction region, the main task is to improve long-term and stable supplement of agriculture products, to strengthen land production potential and to develop characteristic agriculture according to local conditions. The spatial management in low-level harmony region is to enhance the ability of ecological service, such as water conservation and biological diversity, to develop suitable industries and to guide the ordered transfer of overload population, in order to construct the region for the harmony between man and nature.
引文
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