中国财政支出拉动农村居民消费研究
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摘要
当前全球正经历着一场深刻的金融危机,中国的宏观经济也终于走到了必须依靠拉动内需才能继续保持高速增长的当口,此时谁也不能再忽视占人口2／3的7亿农民的消费需求对经济增长的拉动力量。当我们谈到农村消费长期落后的现状时,同时也是在说,农村消费有充足的空间去挖掘。在中央政府试图通过“新农村建设”等一系列农村“新政”克服2008年金融危机对中国实体经济的不利影响时,深入研究农村消费市场显得尤为迫切和必要。
当然,认识到这一点还远远不够,我们更需要从真实数字的比较中获得更为细致的材料,运用科学的手段和方法探知、分析农民消费的特点和当前措施的不足之处,从而找准今后政策的着力点,使农村居民消费成为拉动中国经济的引擎。于是在经济危机的背景下,以财政支出为视角,将农村居民消费作为研究对象,对财政支出拉动农村居民消费问题进行深入地研究成为本文的写作初衷。
论文首先根据研究内容和目的的需要对财政支出促进居民消费的理论进行了总结性的论述。为以下论文研究提供了坚实的理论基础和依据。
为了全面系统的反应我国农村居民消费现状,总结出农村居民消费特点,寻找拉动农村居民消费的突破点,在论文的第四部分基于汇总数据利用统计和计量方法,从农村居民的消费水平和结构两方面出发,利用多角度、多层次和多类别的对比手法对农村居民消费水平和结构进行细致描述和综合评价。
论文的第五部分首先界定了涉及农村消费的财政支出的范围即财政农业支出、财政补贴和农村社会保障。其中重点对财政农业支出与农村居民消费进行了实证分析,分析从财政支出总量和支出结构两个方面着手,运用协整和误差修正模型,对我国财政农业支出与农村居民消费的关系进行实证检验。结果显示,从财政支农总量来看,长期内政府财政支农支出对农村居民消费具有引致效应,但短期内政府财政支农支出对农村居民消费的影响不显著；从财政支农结构来看,支援农业生产和农业事业费支出长期内对农村居民消费的增长具有正向促进作用,但短期影响不显著,而财政农村基础设施支出在短期内对农村居民消费产生挤出效应,长期影响不显著,农村救济费支出对农村居民消费具有正向促进作用,但其作用的效果并不理想,与此相反,农业科技三项费支出对农村居民消费的影响不显著。针对财政补贴,本章重点介绍涉及农村居民消费的生活性补贴即“下乡”产品价格补贴的意义、措施和政策效果,对涉农生产性补贴的四类直接补贴即种粮农民直接补贴、农资综合补贴、良种补贴和农机具购置补贴的实施效果进行了简单的介绍,分析了补贴对农村居民消费的作用。针对农村社会保障,首先介绍了目前我国农村社保体系的构成,对农村养老、农村合作医疗、农村社会救助和农民工社保的发展现状进行了简明介绍,并对社会保障对农村居民消费的作用进行了分析。
论文的第六部分根据前述章节实证分析,总结归纳出财政支出在拉动农村居民消费方面的问题：1、财政对农投入力度相对不足导致农业综合生产能力弱,农民增收缓慢。2、涉农补贴方式不合理,农民直接收益少。3、农村社会保障不完善,抑制农村居民消费。4、农村消费环境不健全,抑制农村居民消费升级。并从城乡二元结构,财政农业支出结构、补贴方式、农村社保和农村消费环境方面进行了因素分析。
第七部分根据前述章节的分析结论,进行了财政机制设计并提出了系列财政对策选择。首先收入增长机制为增加农村居民消费提供资金,其次风险分担机制为增加农村居民消费提供保证,再次热点引导机制为增加农村居民消费确立了消费目标,最后公共服务机制为增加农村居民消费创造了条件。四种机制分别从购买力、风险预期、消费目标、消费环境为增加农村居民消费创造了条件,提供了保障。四种机制与农村居民消费之间形成了一个平衡的封闭环,如果其中一种机制失灵,那么这个封闭环的平衡就会被打破,农村居民消费就会因此受到影响,这也是目前我国农村居民消费启而不动的根源所在。
The world is undergoing a profound financial crisis,China's macroeconomic also finally arrived must rely on stimulating domestic demand to keep growing point, anyone cannot ignore with 7 million farmers to the economic growth of rural consumption pulling force. When we talk about rural consumption situation of long-term behind, this is to say the rural consumption has plenty of space to dig.When the central government attempts to implement a series of new rural such as "new countryside" to overcome the adverse effect of financial crisis in 2008 to the Chinese economy, in-depth study of the rural consumption market appears particularly urgent and necessary.
Of course, it is far from enough to realize the importance, we need to acquire more meticulous material from the comparison of real number,Use of scientific means and methods to analycise and detectio the characteristics of the famer's consumption and present measures deficiency, in order to find future policy, make the rural residents consumption become China's economic engine pulled. So under the background of the economic crisis, in the perspective of the fiscal expenditure, rural residents' consumption as the research object, issue that the fiscal expenditure pulls rural residents' consumption has become the writing purpose.
Firstly, according to the research content and purpose, paper concludes consumption theory and financial control theory. With the two theories to the introduction,provides a solid theoretical foundation and basis.
In order to fully and system react current situation of rural residents' consumption, summarized rural residents' consumption characteristics, pull find the breakthrough,the fourth part of the paper, from the two aspects of structure and consumption level, based on the summary data,adopting statistics and measurement method, using the multiple perspectives, detailed describe and comprehensive evaluate from multi-level and category of contrast of rural residents' consumption level and structure.
In the fifth part of the paper,firstly defines the fiscal expenditure involving rural consumption which including financial expenditure for agricultural、agricultural subsidies and rural social security.
In this chapter, emphasis on carrying out empirical analysis relationship between fiscal agricultural expenditure and rural residents' consumption, Analysis of fiscal expenditure from expenditure level and structure,using the cointegration and error correction model to have empirical test.As a results, from total amount of financial support, in the long-term, financial support of government expenditure of rural residents' consumption has caused effect,But in the short-term, government financial support for rural residents consumption expenditure is not significant. from structure of financial support, Support for agricultural production and agricultural operating expenses has positive role in promoting rural residents' consumption growth, But no significant influence in short-term, But in the short period,financial rural infrastructure spending produces extrusion effect in rural residents' consumption,Long-term impact is not significant. Rural relief for rural consumer spending has positive role in promoting, But the effect is not ideal. On the contrary, three charges of agricultural science and technology for rural residents expenditure is not significant. For financial subsidies, this chapter introduces subsidies involving rural consumer life "product", price subsidies meanings, measures and policies, analyses the influence mechanism of economic subsidies, simply introduce the four kinds of direct agriculture productive subsidies, namely grain farmers direct subsidies、agriculture means and production integrated allowance、good selection seeds subsidies and purchase subsidies.As a result, For rural residents, though our government implemented large amount financial subsidies investment, By limits such as the subsidy way, subsidies standard, subsidy object, not fully exert stimulating consumption of rural residents. According to the rural social security, Firstly introduces the current our country rural social security system, theoretically analycise economic functions of the social security, finally introduces development situation of rural endowment, rural cooperative medical,rural social assistance and farmer workers social security.
In the sixth part of the paper, according to the empirical analysis of above section, summarized insufficient of the fiscal expenditure in pulling rural residents consumption. Content from five aspects:1.Finance for agriculture investment relative insufficient cause agricultural synthetical production capacity is weak, growth of the farmers' income is slow.
2.unreasonable structure of financial supporting restrain rural consumer demand.3.way of agriculture subsidy is not reasonable, direct earnings of farmers is less, restrain rural consumer demand.4.The rural social security is not perfect, restrain rural consumer demand.5.Rural consumption environment is not perfect, restrain rural consumer demand.6.policy issues of rural fiscal expenditure effect rural consumer demand.
According to the conclusion of the foregoing section, put forward a series of fiscal policy choice. Firstly income growth mechanism provide money for rural residents consumption of funding, secondly Risk-sharing mechanism provide ensurement for rural residents' consumption.thirdly the hot leading mechanism establishes consumption goals for rural residents' consumption,finally public service mechanism creates conditions for rural residents' consumption. Four mechanisms respectively from the purchasing power of consumer expectations,risk,target, environment of rural residents' consumption created the conditions, provided protection. formed a balance closed loop Between four mechanisms and rural consumer,If one of the mechanism failed,So the closed loop of balance will be broken, rural residents' consumption will be affected, All is also the source of motionless of our country rural residents' consumption.
当然,认识到这一点还远远不够,我们更需要从真实数字的比较中获得更为细致的材料,运用科学的手段和方法探知、分析农民消费的特点和当前措施的不足之处,从而找准今后政策的着力点,使农村居民消费成为拉动中国经济的引擎。于是在经济危机的背景下,以财政支出为视角,将农村居民消费作为研究对象,对财政支出拉动农村居民消费问题进行深入地研究成为本文的写作初衷。
论文首先根据研究内容和目的的需要对财政支出促进居民消费的理论进行了总结性的论述。为以下论文研究提供了坚实的理论基础和依据。
为了全面系统的反应我国农村居民消费现状,总结出农村居民消费特点,寻找拉动农村居民消费的突破点,在论文的第四部分基于汇总数据利用统计和计量方法,从农村居民的消费水平和结构两方面出发,利用多角度、多层次和多类别的对比手法对农村居民消费水平和结构进行细致描述和综合评价。
论文的第五部分首先界定了涉及农村消费的财政支出的范围即财政农业支出、财政补贴和农村社会保障。其中重点对财政农业支出与农村居民消费进行了实证分析,分析从财政支出总量和支出结构两个方面着手,运用协整和误差修正模型,对我国财政农业支出与农村居民消费的关系进行实证检验。结果显示,从财政支农总量来看,长期内政府财政支农支出对农村居民消费具有引致效应,但短期内政府财政支农支出对农村居民消费的影响不显著；从财政支农结构来看,支援农业生产和农业事业费支出长期内对农村居民消费的增长具有正向促进作用,但短期影响不显著,而财政农村基础设施支出在短期内对农村居民消费产生挤出效应,长期影响不显著,农村救济费支出对农村居民消费具有正向促进作用,但其作用的效果并不理想,与此相反,农业科技三项费支出对农村居民消费的影响不显著。针对财政补贴,本章重点介绍涉及农村居民消费的生活性补贴即“下乡”产品价格补贴的意义、措施和政策效果,对涉农生产性补贴的四类直接补贴即种粮农民直接补贴、农资综合补贴、良种补贴和农机具购置补贴的实施效果进行了简单的介绍,分析了补贴对农村居民消费的作用。针对农村社会保障,首先介绍了目前我国农村社保体系的构成,对农村养老、农村合作医疗、农村社会救助和农民工社保的发展现状进行了简明介绍,并对社会保障对农村居民消费的作用进行了分析。
论文的第六部分根据前述章节实证分析,总结归纳出财政支出在拉动农村居民消费方面的问题：1、财政对农投入力度相对不足导致农业综合生产能力弱,农民增收缓慢。2、涉农补贴方式不合理,农民直接收益少。3、农村社会保障不完善,抑制农村居民消费。4、农村消费环境不健全,抑制农村居民消费升级。并从城乡二元结构,财政农业支出结构、补贴方式、农村社保和农村消费环境方面进行了因素分析。
第七部分根据前述章节的分析结论,进行了财政机制设计并提出了系列财政对策选择。首先收入增长机制为增加农村居民消费提供资金,其次风险分担机制为增加农村居民消费提供保证,再次热点引导机制为增加农村居民消费确立了消费目标,最后公共服务机制为增加农村居民消费创造了条件。四种机制分别从购买力、风险预期、消费目标、消费环境为增加农村居民消费创造了条件,提供了保障。四种机制与农村居民消费之间形成了一个平衡的封闭环,如果其中一种机制失灵,那么这个封闭环的平衡就会被打破,农村居民消费就会因此受到影响,这也是目前我国农村居民消费启而不动的根源所在。
The world is undergoing a profound financial crisis,China's macroeconomic also finally arrived must rely on stimulating domestic demand to keep growing point, anyone cannot ignore with 7 million farmers to the economic growth of rural consumption pulling force. When we talk about rural consumption situation of long-term behind, this is to say the rural consumption has plenty of space to dig.When the central government attempts to implement a series of new rural such as "new countryside" to overcome the adverse effect of financial crisis in 2008 to the Chinese economy, in-depth study of the rural consumption market appears particularly urgent and necessary.
Of course, it is far from enough to realize the importance, we need to acquire more meticulous material from the comparison of real number,Use of scientific means and methods to analycise and detectio the characteristics of the famer's consumption and present measures deficiency, in order to find future policy, make the rural residents consumption become China's economic engine pulled. So under the background of the economic crisis, in the perspective of the fiscal expenditure, rural residents' consumption as the research object, issue that the fiscal expenditure pulls rural residents' consumption has become the writing purpose.
Firstly, according to the research content and purpose, paper concludes consumption theory and financial control theory. With the two theories to the introduction,provides a solid theoretical foundation and basis.
In order to fully and system react current situation of rural residents' consumption, summarized rural residents' consumption characteristics, pull find the breakthrough,the fourth part of the paper, from the two aspects of structure and consumption level, based on the summary data,adopting statistics and measurement method, using the multiple perspectives, detailed describe and comprehensive evaluate from multi-level and category of contrast of rural residents' consumption level and structure.
In the fifth part of the paper,firstly defines the fiscal expenditure involving rural consumption which including financial expenditure for agricultural、agricultural subsidies and rural social security.
In this chapter, emphasis on carrying out empirical analysis relationship between fiscal agricultural expenditure and rural residents' consumption, Analysis of fiscal expenditure from expenditure level and structure,using the cointegration and error correction model to have empirical test.As a results, from total amount of financial support, in the long-term, financial support of government expenditure of rural residents' consumption has caused effect,But in the short-term, government financial support for rural residents consumption expenditure is not significant. from structure of financial support, Support for agricultural production and agricultural operating expenses has positive role in promoting rural residents' consumption growth, But no significant influence in short-term, But in the short period,financial rural infrastructure spending produces extrusion effect in rural residents' consumption,Long-term impact is not significant. Rural relief for rural consumer spending has positive role in promoting, But the effect is not ideal. On the contrary, three charges of agricultural science and technology for rural residents expenditure is not significant. For financial subsidies, this chapter introduces subsidies involving rural consumer life "product", price subsidies meanings, measures and policies, analyses the influence mechanism of economic subsidies, simply introduce the four kinds of direct agriculture productive subsidies, namely grain farmers direct subsidies、agriculture means and production integrated allowance、good selection seeds subsidies and purchase subsidies.As a result, For rural residents, though our government implemented large amount financial subsidies investment, By limits such as the subsidy way, subsidies standard, subsidy object, not fully exert stimulating consumption of rural residents. According to the rural social security, Firstly introduces the current our country rural social security system, theoretically analycise economic functions of the social security, finally introduces development situation of rural endowment, rural cooperative medical,rural social assistance and farmer workers social security.
In the sixth part of the paper, according to the empirical analysis of above section, summarized insufficient of the fiscal expenditure in pulling rural residents consumption. Content from five aspects:1.Finance for agriculture investment relative insufficient cause agricultural synthetical production capacity is weak, growth of the farmers' income is slow.
2.unreasonable structure of financial supporting restrain rural consumer demand.3.way of agriculture subsidy is not reasonable, direct earnings of farmers is less, restrain rural consumer demand.4.The rural social security is not perfect, restrain rural consumer demand.5.Rural consumption environment is not perfect, restrain rural consumer demand.6.policy issues of rural fiscal expenditure effect rural consumer demand.
According to the conclusion of the foregoing section, put forward a series of fiscal policy choice. Firstly income growth mechanism provide money for rural residents consumption of funding, secondly Risk-sharing mechanism provide ensurement for rural residents' consumption.thirdly the hot leading mechanism establishes consumption goals for rural residents' consumption,finally public service mechanism creates conditions for rural residents' consumption. Four mechanisms respectively from the purchasing power of consumer expectations,risk,target, environment of rural residents' consumption created the conditions, provided protection. formed a balance closed loop Between four mechanisms and rural consumer,If one of the mechanism failed,So the closed loop of balance will be broken, rural residents' consumption will be affected, All is also the source of motionless of our country rural residents' consumption.
引文
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