煤矿回采工作面瓦斯涌出非线性特性分析及预测仿真理论研究
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摘要
回采工作面瓦斯涌出来源复杂、影响因素多并且作业区域内瓦斯分布不均匀,容易造成回风巷和局部瓦斯积聚(尤其是上隅角),限制工作面的生产。因此选取回采工作面瓦斯涌出作为研究对象,结合回采工作面瓦斯浓度实测数据,针对煤矿井下空间复杂结构及动态变化条件下瓦斯涌出特征与规律的关键问题,以系统科学、安全科学和矿井通风与安全学等理论的原理辨识了煤矿瓦斯涌出各影响因素,应用非线性科学、现代应用数学、计算机科学等理论对回采工作面瓦斯涌出进行了非线性分析与预测仿真理论的研究,建立了基于支持向量机的瓦斯涌出混沌时间序列预测模型以及基于瓦斯涌出时空混沌行为的耦合映像格子模型,其主要研究内容和结果如下：
(1)对Ⅱ1024回采工作面瓦斯浓度序列进行时间结构变异系数特征分析,δ值的复杂变化特征表明在瓦斯涌出在时间或空间不断发生变异,呈现出复杂的非线性特征。这也说明了传统的瓦斯涌出研究方法存在局限性,必须从非线性理论的角度来考察瓦斯涌出系统特性与规律；
(2)结合现场瓦斯实测数据对7126回采工作面相对瓦斯涌出和绝对瓦斯涌出进行综合分析,结果表明该工作面瓦斯涌出变化起伏较大且呈现出明显的复杂性,相对瓦斯涌出量和绝对瓦斯涌出量表现出较明显的不稳定性,体现了煤矿回采工作面瓦斯涌出的各要素之间及其与外部系统的相互作用存在着的复杂的非线性关系。对回采工作面瓦斯涌出进行系统分析,表明该系统存在与混沌系统相耦合的特征,这证明了混沌理论对该系统进行研究的可行性；
(3)对Ⅱ1024回采工作面的绝对瓦斯涌出时序数据,通过GP算法与互信息函数法,分别确定了嵌入维数m为10与延迟时间τ为15,在此条件下,通过功率谱、自相关函数、Poincare截面和返回映像等混沌特征分析方法,对Ⅱ1024回采工作面进行非线性特征判别,根据各分析图形特征,可明显判定煤矿回采工作面瓦斯涌出具有混沌特性,进一步证明了运用混沌理论对回采工作面瓦斯涌出进行研究的合理性和可行性；
(4)通过对Ⅱ1024回采工作面绝对瓦斯涌出量时间序列R/S分析,证明了对其进行预测的可行性,对其进行最大Lyapunov指数计算与分析,发现随步长k的增加,其Lyapunov指数值趋于稳定,其值大约为0.041-0.042,是一个有限的正值,这说明采掘工作面瓦斯涌出系统的吸引子为奇怪吸引子,系统运动呈混沌状态,可预报尺度的确定避免了在进行采掘工作面瓦斯涌出预测研究时时间尺度过大的情形。通过运用混沌理论中相空间重构方法建立的人工神经网络和支持向量机的瓦斯涌出预测模型对比分析结果表明,基于SVM的瓦斯涌出混沌时间序列预测模型具有较好的预测精度,同时,基于SVM的瓦斯涌出混沌时间序列预测模型具有建立更简便、训练速度更快等优点。这样,由于充分考虑了瓦斯涌出时间序列的混沌性,使得预测更科学。这结果也为回采工作面瓦斯涌出的可预测性及预测模型的选择提供了一种新的依据。
(5)瓦斯涌出系统是时空混沌系统,它不仅在时间维度上是混沌的,而且在空间维度上也是混沌的,借助耦合映像格子模型对该时空混沌动力系统进行了仿真研究,并建立了瓦斯涌出耦合映像格子模型,定性模拟了实际系统的时空发展行为。瓦斯涌出耦合映像格子模型演化特性表明,可以通过合适的技术措施和管理措施来抑制瓦斯涌出混沌的产生,提高回采工作面的安全度。
(6)将瓦斯涌出非线性预测模型和耦合映像格子模型应用到Ⅱ1023回采工作面的瓦斯治理,根据这两个模型采取了针对性的措施,结果显示瓦斯压力与瓦斯涌出均呈下降趋势,瓦斯浓度也未超限,实施效果明显,为Ⅱ1023回采工作面的生产提供了较大的安全空间,同时也验证了模型的准确性。
回采工作面瓦斯涌出非线性特性分析及预测仿真理论研究,将为回采工作面瓦斯涌出开创一个新的研究领域,其研究成果的获得和应用对有效预防和控制瓦斯事故以及改善煤矿安全生产状况具有重要的现实意义和较广阔的应用、推广前景,对其他类型的事故控制也有较大的指导作用。
The source of gas emission in the working face is complex and gas distribution in operation region is uneven. Gas easily accumulates in return airway and some certain parts (especially on top corner), so the work in the heading face is restricted. Therefore, gas emission in the heading face was selected as the research object. Focused on the complex underground structure of coal mine and the characteristics and law of gas emission under dynamic changing condition, combined with measured data of gas concentrations, the influencing factors of coal mine gas emission were identified with the theories such as systematic science, safety science, ventilation and safety of mine etc. The non-linear analysis and the theory for prediction and simulation about gas emission was processed by applying the non-linear science, modern applied mathematics, computer science etc. Then, the chaotic time series prediction model of gas emission which is based on the SVM and the CMLs model which is based on the spatiotemporal chaos behavior of gas emission were set up. The main research content and results are as follows:
(1) Gas concentration series of the No.Ⅱ1024 working face is analyzed on its time structure variation coefficient characteristic. The complex change characteristic of 8 indicates that gas emission is constantly aberrated in time and space and has complicated nonlinear characteristic. It is also explained the conventional techniques is difficult to research gas emission and the characteristic and law of gas emission must be researched by the nonlinear theory;
(2) Combining with on-site gas measured data, relative gas emission and absolute gas emission in the No.7126 working face were analyzed comprehensively. The results show that gas emission in this working face changes greatly and presents an obvious complexity, the relative gas emission rate and absolute gas emission rate shows more pronounced instability. It is verified the existence of complex non-linear relationship among the elements of gas emission and their interaction with external systems in coal mine working face. Systemic analysis was processed to gas emission of the working face. It was proved that chaos theory research about gas emission is feasible according to the chaos coupling characteristic of gas emission system;
(3) Phase-space reconstruction is the premise of most chaotic research and calculation, and the key point of phase-space reconstruction technology is to select the embedding dimension m and delay timeτ. For the time-series data of absolute gas emission in the No.Ⅱ1024 working face, adopting the GP algorithm and mutual information function, the embedding dimension m and delay timeτcan be specified respectively, which are 10 and 15. Under this premise, non-linear characteristics of the No.Ⅱ1024 working face is identified through several chaotic characteristic analytical methods, such as power spectrum, auto-correlation function, Poincarre cross-section and return map etc. According to characteristics of the analysis graphics, it can be confirmed that gas emission in coal mine working face has chaotic characteristics. It is further proved that it is reasonable and feasible to research gas emission of the working face by chaos theory;
(4) The feasibility of the prediction of absolute gas emission quantity was proved by the R/S analysis about it in the No.Ⅱ1024 working face. Through the calculation and analysis of the biggest Lyapunov index, it indicates that with the increase of step-size, the Lyapunov index value tends to be a constant which is about 0.041-0.042, and is a limited positive value. It illustrates that the attractor of gas emission system in the working face is strange attractor, the system is in chaotic sport status and the system movement presents chaos state. The determination of potential predictable scale avoids the situation of overlarge time scale when carry on the prediction research of gas emission in the working face. The contrast and analysis were processed about the prediction models of the ANN and the SVM based on the phase reconstruction method in the chaos theory, The result shows that the SVM prediction model possesses a better prediction precision, easier to build and faster training speed, and due to the consideration of time-space chaos of gas emission, it is more reliable. Also, it provides a new guideline on the predictable and the prediction model of gas emission of the working faces.
(5) Gas emission system is spatio-temporal chaos system. It's not only chaotic in the time dimensionality but chaotic in the space dimensionality. Simulation research about gas emission system was processed by the CMLs model. The CMLs model about gas emission was built and the spatio-temporal development behavior of actual system was qualitatively simulated. The evolution characteristic of the CMLs model about gas emission shows that it can restrain the chaos of gas emission via appropriate technical measures and management measures to enhance the safety of the working face.
(6) The nonlinear prediction model and the CMLs model about gas emission were applied to gas treatment in the No.Ⅱ1023 working face. Pertinently measures were adopted according to two models. The result shows gas pressure and gas emission all take on downtrend and gas density is not beyond the limit value. It offers biggish safe space for the production of the No.Ⅱ1023 working face. The model's validation is also verified.
Nonlinear characteristic analysis and the theory of prediction and simulation about gas emission of the working face will create a new field of study to gas emission in the working face. The research result and its application have practical significance and broader application prospect for effective prevention and control of gas accidents and to improve coal mine safety, and also have greater guiding role to other types of accidents control.
(1)对Ⅱ1024回采工作面瓦斯浓度序列进行时间结构变异系数特征分析,δ值的复杂变化特征表明在瓦斯涌出在时间或空间不断发生变异,呈现出复杂的非线性特征。这也说明了传统的瓦斯涌出研究方法存在局限性,必须从非线性理论的角度来考察瓦斯涌出系统特性与规律；
(2)结合现场瓦斯实测数据对7126回采工作面相对瓦斯涌出和绝对瓦斯涌出进行综合分析,结果表明该工作面瓦斯涌出变化起伏较大且呈现出明显的复杂性,相对瓦斯涌出量和绝对瓦斯涌出量表现出较明显的不稳定性,体现了煤矿回采工作面瓦斯涌出的各要素之间及其与外部系统的相互作用存在着的复杂的非线性关系。对回采工作面瓦斯涌出进行系统分析,表明该系统存在与混沌系统相耦合的特征,这证明了混沌理论对该系统进行研究的可行性；
(3)对Ⅱ1024回采工作面的绝对瓦斯涌出时序数据,通过GP算法与互信息函数法,分别确定了嵌入维数m为10与延迟时间τ为15,在此条件下,通过功率谱、自相关函数、Poincare截面和返回映像等混沌特征分析方法,对Ⅱ1024回采工作面进行非线性特征判别,根据各分析图形特征,可明显判定煤矿回采工作面瓦斯涌出具有混沌特性,进一步证明了运用混沌理论对回采工作面瓦斯涌出进行研究的合理性和可行性；
(4)通过对Ⅱ1024回采工作面绝对瓦斯涌出量时间序列R/S分析,证明了对其进行预测的可行性,对其进行最大Lyapunov指数计算与分析,发现随步长k的增加,其Lyapunov指数值趋于稳定,其值大约为0.041-0.042,是一个有限的正值,这说明采掘工作面瓦斯涌出系统的吸引子为奇怪吸引子,系统运动呈混沌状态,可预报尺度的确定避免了在进行采掘工作面瓦斯涌出预测研究时时间尺度过大的情形。通过运用混沌理论中相空间重构方法建立的人工神经网络和支持向量机的瓦斯涌出预测模型对比分析结果表明,基于SVM的瓦斯涌出混沌时间序列预测模型具有较好的预测精度,同时,基于SVM的瓦斯涌出混沌时间序列预测模型具有建立更简便、训练速度更快等优点。这样,由于充分考虑了瓦斯涌出时间序列的混沌性,使得预测更科学。这结果也为回采工作面瓦斯涌出的可预测性及预测模型的选择提供了一种新的依据。
(5)瓦斯涌出系统是时空混沌系统,它不仅在时间维度上是混沌的,而且在空间维度上也是混沌的,借助耦合映像格子模型对该时空混沌动力系统进行了仿真研究,并建立了瓦斯涌出耦合映像格子模型,定性模拟了实际系统的时空发展行为。瓦斯涌出耦合映像格子模型演化特性表明,可以通过合适的技术措施和管理措施来抑制瓦斯涌出混沌的产生,提高回采工作面的安全度。
(6)将瓦斯涌出非线性预测模型和耦合映像格子模型应用到Ⅱ1023回采工作面的瓦斯治理,根据这两个模型采取了针对性的措施,结果显示瓦斯压力与瓦斯涌出均呈下降趋势,瓦斯浓度也未超限,实施效果明显,为Ⅱ1023回采工作面的生产提供了较大的安全空间,同时也验证了模型的准确性。
回采工作面瓦斯涌出非线性特性分析及预测仿真理论研究,将为回采工作面瓦斯涌出开创一个新的研究领域,其研究成果的获得和应用对有效预防和控制瓦斯事故以及改善煤矿安全生产状况具有重要的现实意义和较广阔的应用、推广前景,对其他类型的事故控制也有较大的指导作用。
The source of gas emission in the working face is complex and gas distribution in operation region is uneven. Gas easily accumulates in return airway and some certain parts (especially on top corner), so the work in the heading face is restricted. Therefore, gas emission in the heading face was selected as the research object. Focused on the complex underground structure of coal mine and the characteristics and law of gas emission under dynamic changing condition, combined with measured data of gas concentrations, the influencing factors of coal mine gas emission were identified with the theories such as systematic science, safety science, ventilation and safety of mine etc. The non-linear analysis and the theory for prediction and simulation about gas emission was processed by applying the non-linear science, modern applied mathematics, computer science etc. Then, the chaotic time series prediction model of gas emission which is based on the SVM and the CMLs model which is based on the spatiotemporal chaos behavior of gas emission were set up. The main research content and results are as follows:
(1) Gas concentration series of the No.Ⅱ1024 working face is analyzed on its time structure variation coefficient characteristic. The complex change characteristic of 8 indicates that gas emission is constantly aberrated in time and space and has complicated nonlinear characteristic. It is also explained the conventional techniques is difficult to research gas emission and the characteristic and law of gas emission must be researched by the nonlinear theory;
(2) Combining with on-site gas measured data, relative gas emission and absolute gas emission in the No.7126 working face were analyzed comprehensively. The results show that gas emission in this working face changes greatly and presents an obvious complexity, the relative gas emission rate and absolute gas emission rate shows more pronounced instability. It is verified the existence of complex non-linear relationship among the elements of gas emission and their interaction with external systems in coal mine working face. Systemic analysis was processed to gas emission of the working face. It was proved that chaos theory research about gas emission is feasible according to the chaos coupling characteristic of gas emission system;
(3) Phase-space reconstruction is the premise of most chaotic research and calculation, and the key point of phase-space reconstruction technology is to select the embedding dimension m and delay timeτ. For the time-series data of absolute gas emission in the No.Ⅱ1024 working face, adopting the GP algorithm and mutual information function, the embedding dimension m and delay timeτcan be specified respectively, which are 10 and 15. Under this premise, non-linear characteristics of the No.Ⅱ1024 working face is identified through several chaotic characteristic analytical methods, such as power spectrum, auto-correlation function, Poincarre cross-section and return map etc. According to characteristics of the analysis graphics, it can be confirmed that gas emission in coal mine working face has chaotic characteristics. It is further proved that it is reasonable and feasible to research gas emission of the working face by chaos theory;
(4) The feasibility of the prediction of absolute gas emission quantity was proved by the R/S analysis about it in the No.Ⅱ1024 working face. Through the calculation and analysis of the biggest Lyapunov index, it indicates that with the increase of step-size, the Lyapunov index value tends to be a constant which is about 0.041-0.042, and is a limited positive value. It illustrates that the attractor of gas emission system in the working face is strange attractor, the system is in chaotic sport status and the system movement presents chaos state. The determination of potential predictable scale avoids the situation of overlarge time scale when carry on the prediction research of gas emission in the working face. The contrast and analysis were processed about the prediction models of the ANN and the SVM based on the phase reconstruction method in the chaos theory, The result shows that the SVM prediction model possesses a better prediction precision, easier to build and faster training speed, and due to the consideration of time-space chaos of gas emission, it is more reliable. Also, it provides a new guideline on the predictable and the prediction model of gas emission of the working faces.
(5) Gas emission system is spatio-temporal chaos system. It's not only chaotic in the time dimensionality but chaotic in the space dimensionality. Simulation research about gas emission system was processed by the CMLs model. The CMLs model about gas emission was built and the spatio-temporal development behavior of actual system was qualitatively simulated. The evolution characteristic of the CMLs model about gas emission shows that it can restrain the chaos of gas emission via appropriate technical measures and management measures to enhance the safety of the working face.
(6) The nonlinear prediction model and the CMLs model about gas emission were applied to gas treatment in the No.Ⅱ1023 working face. Pertinently measures were adopted according to two models. The result shows gas pressure and gas emission all take on downtrend and gas density is not beyond the limit value. It offers biggish safe space for the production of the No.Ⅱ1023 working face. The model's validation is also verified.
Nonlinear characteristic analysis and the theory of prediction and simulation about gas emission of the working face will create a new field of study to gas emission in the working face. The research result and its application have practical significance and broader application prospect for effective prevention and control of gas accidents and to improve coal mine safety, and also have greater guiding role to other types of accidents control.
引文
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