全球海—气耦合系统中冬季重现和持续性障碍的特征及物理成因
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摘要
海洋和大气的持续性不仅表示系统有多长的记忆性,还暗示着系统的潜在可预报性。所以正确认识海-气耦合系统的持续性对理解全球气候状态及预测未来气候变化都有重要的理论意义和现实价值。虽然人们对持续性的特征进行了大量的研究,取得了一些有意义的结果,但仍有许多问题尚不清楚,有些重要内容还未涉及。特别是对于海温冬季重现现象,目前尚未有人从海气耦合角度对其进行研究。因此,本文围绕海气耦合系统中冬季重现和持续性障碍展开一系列的研究。首先,利用定量化的方法,从海气两个方面,对北半球冬季重现的时空分布特征进行全面分析,对大气环流冬季重现与海温冬季重现之间的关系进行了重点研究,对北太平洋海-气系统冬季重现产生的可能机制进行了深入讨论。通过研究冬季重现的年际变化,选取重现年和非重现年,对海-气系统基本特征随季节的变化进行了系统的分析和比较,进一步从海气耦合的角度对北太平洋冬季重现产生的可能机理进行了深入讨论。其次,通过定量的标准,从全球的角度,对海气系统持续性障碍的时空分布进行研究和分析,并对北太平洋夏季障碍和南海-印尼秋季障碍的可能成因进行系统探讨。最后,利用IPCC20C3M耦合模式资料,评估了耦合模式对海-气系统中冬季重现和持续障碍的模拟能力。主要结论如下:
(1)北半球海温冬季重现的时空分布特征及混合层深度的季节变化。结果表明:北太平洋和北大西洋海温冬季重现的空间范围都是海盆尺度的,但两者具有完全不同的时空结构。在北太平洋,中部重现时间比其周围晚;而在北大西洋以30°N为分界,北边重现晚(为冬季),南边重现早(为秋季)。在此基础上,进一步讨论了北半球海温冬季重现与混合层深度季节变化之间的关系。我们发现,在北大西洋,海洋混合层深度季节变化的地理分布与海温重现的时空结构基本一致。也就是说,混合层深度季节变化大(小),海温重现时间晚(早)。但是对北太平洋,在一些区域混合层深度季节变化的大小并不能解释海温重现时间的早晚。这表明混合层深度的季节变化并不是决定海温冬季重现时间早晚的唯一因子。
(2)北半球大气环流冬季重现及其与海温冬季重现之间的关系。一直以来,人们对冬季重现的研究都是针对海温。这里我们突破前人研究的局限,对北半球大气环流冬季重现的基本特征进行了研究。结果表明:冬季重现不仅仅存在于海洋中,大气环流场也存在显著的冬季重现,主要位于亚洲东部、北太平洋中部和北大西洋纽芬兰附近,而且这几个重现区域在高空也是存在的。在此基础上,重点对大气环流冬季重现与海温冬季重现之间的关系进行了分析,进而对北太平洋海-气系统冬季重现产生的可能机制进行了深入讨论。结果表明,在北太平洋,重现区域海-气之间存在显著的相关。而且大气环流异常与海温异常之间超前相关大于它们之间的滞后相关,这就为大气对海洋的强迫作用可能占主导地位提供了观测上的证据。因此,大气环流存在冬季-冬季的重现,它可能会强迫产生海温冬季-冬季的重现。而且进一步的分析指出,在大气强迫海洋的过程中风应力的作用可能是主要的。以上结果说明海洋内部的‘重现机制'(Alexander et al.,1995)可能并不是产生海温冬季重现的唯一因子,这就为冬季重现研究提供了一个新思路。而在北大西洋,大气环流重现区域的海平面气压与北大西洋海温之间不存在显著的相关。
(3)其它因素对北半球海-气系统冬季重现的可能影响。主要研究了ENSO、年际-年代际变化、PDO以及北极海冰与北半球海气系统冬季重现的关系。结果表明:无论是北半球海温还是大气环流,其冬季重现的产生都与ENSO是线性独立的。这与ENSO自身的持续性特征有关,因为Nino-3区海温只表现出明显的春季障碍特征,但无论从哪个月开始都不存在海温重现现象。所以,ENSO可能并不是北半球海-气系统冬季重现产生的必要因素,海-气系统冬季重现可能是北半球固有的持续性特征。其次,通过对资料进行滤波分析我们发现,除了年际变化(小于10年)以外,北半球海温冬季重现还与这一地区的年代际变化密切相关。而年代际变化对大气环流冬季重现的影响并不是十分显著。最后,对PDO指数及北极海冰的分析表明,虽然PDO及北极海冰存在冬季重现,但它们对整个北半球海-气系统冬季重现的产生并没有显著的影响。
(4)北太平洋冬季重现的年际变化—重现年与非重现年海-气系统的基本特征。从冬季重现的气候学特征出发对每年海温的变化情况进行判定,从而使研究冬季重现的年际变化成为可能。我们的研究结果表明冬季重现并非每年都存在。通过选取重现年和非重现年,对北太平洋海-气系统基本特征(垂直和水平结构)随季节的变化进行了系统的分析和比较,在此基础上进一步对北太平洋冬季重现可能的产生机理进行了深入讨论。结果表明:无论是重现年还是非重现年,大气强迫和海洋内部过程都会对海表温度产生影响。(1)重现年:大气强迫和海洋内部‘重现机制'对海表温度的作用是同向的,因为第二年秋冬季大气强迫和海洋内部过程都会产生与前冬相同的海表温度异常。(2)非重现年:大气强迫和海洋内部‘重现机制'对海表温度的作用是反向的。主要是由于第二年冬季大气异常与前冬反号,大气强迫海洋又是占主的,致使海表温度也发生符号的改变。而对于次表层海温,虽然夏季非重现年与重现年次表层海温具有相同的分布特征,但是非重现年夏季次表层海温的作用不足以抵消接下来冬季大气的强迫作用,所以不能使第二年冬季的海表温度重现。综上所述,无论是重现年还是非重现年,北太平洋海气相互作用主要表现为大气对海洋的强迫,特别是在冬季。阿留申低压减弱(增强),西风减弱(增强),最终导致了北太平洋中部海温增暖(变冷)。因此,海表温度在冬季重现与否主要取决对于大气环流的变化,而海洋内部的‘重现机制'对海表温度的作用可能并不是主要的。
(5)全球海-气系统持续性障碍的时空分布。通过对持续性障碍的定量化定义,利用全球海温格点资料,全面分析了全球海温持续性障碍的时空分布特征。结果表明:除了人们熟知的ENSO春季障碍之外,全球其它区域还存在不同季节的持续性障碍。如:北太平洋中部存在夏季障碍;南海、印度尼西亚区域存在秋季障碍。这是我们下面两章重点研究的内容。
(6)北太平洋海温夏季障碍及其可能的产生原因。在前面的基础上进一步对北太平洋中部海温夏季持续性障碍进行了深入的分析,并从多个方面讨论了其可能的成因。我们发现,北太平洋中部海温的持续性不仅表现出夏季障碍,还存在另一显著特征—冬季重现。通过线性回归分析发现,ENSO并不是夏季障碍产生的必要因素,夏季障碍可能是北太平洋海温固有的持续性特征。对各月平均海温及其标准差的分析发现,海温变化的季节锁相并不能解释北太平洋中部海温夏季障碍的产生。可见,北太平洋海温夏季障碍和ENSO春季障碍产生的主要原因是不同的。进一步的分析表明,北太平洋中部夏季障碍的产生与该地区海温年代际变化密切相关,而且这一关系可能与PDO有关,因为它们对该区域7-12月海温的持续性有显著影响。但是,海温年代际变化和PDO对北太平洋中部1-6月海温持续性的影响并不显著。事实上该区域1-6月海温持续性主要表现出冬季重现特征。结合第三章和第五章的结论,我们认为北太平洋中部海温的持续性不仅受到海盆尺度PDO的影响,同时还受到局地海洋内部过程(重现机制)和大气环流(冬季重现)强迫的作用,从而产生了夏季障碍。
(7)南海-印尼区域秋季障碍与海温年际-年代际变化的关系。从海温年际-年代际变化的角度对南海-印尼海温持续性障碍产生的可能原因进行了研究,并将其与ENSO春季障碍的结果进行了比较。结果表明,南海和印尼区域海温年代际变化的方差占总方差的25%,而Nino-3区的只占10%。这种差异决定了年代际变化在南海-印尼秋季障碍和ENSO春季障碍中所起的作用可能是不同的。对于南海和印尼区域,海温年际变化不能单独产生秋季障碍,如果不考虑海温年代际变化持续性障碍也就不存在。而且,年代际变化对这两个区域海温持续性的影响可能与印度洋和西太平洋海温有关,而PDO对其影响并不显著。然而,海温持续性特征和年代际变化之间的这种关系在Nino-3区并不存在。因为去除海温年代际变化以后,ENSO春季障碍仍然存在。这说明南海-印尼区域秋季障碍与ENSO春季障碍存在明显的区域差异。
(8)IPCC 20C3M耦合模式对海-气系统持续性季节变化的模拟。比较了各模式对北半球海气系统冬季重现的时空特征、北太平洋中部海温持续性特征以及全球海温持续性障碍时空特征的模拟能力。结果表明,大多数模式基本上可以模拟出北半球海温大范围的冬季重现现象。但是与重现范围的模拟相比,耦合模式对重现时间地理差异的模拟都比较差。与海温相比,各模式对大气环流冬季重现时空分布特征的模拟较差,大部分模式未能模拟出大气环流场中主要的重现区域。其次,与观测相比,各耦合模式对北太平洋中部海温持续性特征的模拟结果各不相同。23个模式中8个模式模拟的持续性整体趋势与观测比较接近;9个模式完全没有模拟出这一区域海温持续的主要特征。此外,23个模式中只有5个模式模拟出了赤道中东太平洋的春季障碍,有3个模式模拟出了印尼区域的秋季障碍,而对于北太平洋夏季障碍和南海秋季障碍却没有一个模式模拟出来。
The persistence indicates how long the memory of the system sustain,and hints at the potential predictability of the system.Therefore,a better understanding of the SSTA persistence in the air-sea coupled system should be important for studying the global climate and predicting future climate change.Although more researches have been performed to the seasonal change of the SSTA persistence,the relative studies are still inadequate,even some important questions have not been considered.This study will therefore perform a series of researches on the winter-to-winter recurrence(WWR) and the persistence barrier.First,we comprehensively analyze the temporal-spatial characteristics of the WWR of air-sea system in the Northern Hemisphere,investigate the relationships between the SSTA WWR and the WWR of the atmospheric circulation anomalies,discuss the possible causes of the WWR of air-sea system in the North Pacific,examine the interannual variability of the SSTA WWR though classifying the recurrence year and non-recurrence year.Second,the temporal-spatial characteristics of the persistence barrier of SSTA in the world's oceans are examined.And the further investigations on the summer persistence barrier in the central North Pacific and fall persistence barrier in the South China Sea and Indonesia region are performed.Finally,we evaluate the simulation ability of the WWR and the persistence barrier in the air-sea system using the IPCC 20C3M coupled model output data.The major results are as follows:
(1) The temporal-spatial characteristics of the winter-to-winter recurrence(WWR) of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) in the Northern Hemisphere are comprehensively studied through the lag correlation analysis.Results show that the SSTA WWR in both the North Pacific and Atlantic occurs in most of the basin,but the temporal-spatial distributions of the SSTA WWR in the two oceans are distinctly different.Further analyses indicate that,in the North Atlantic Ocean the temporal-spatial distributions of SSTA WWR are consistent with the spatial distributions of the seasonal cycle of mixed layer depth(MLD),while in the North Pacific Ocean the spatial differences of recurrence timing cannot be completely explained by those of the difference in the MLD between winter and summer in some regions,although the 'reemergence mechanism' still works there.
(2) The atmospheric circulation anomalies also exhibit WWR in the Northern Hemisphere, and it is mainly located in eastern Asia,the central North Pacific and the region near Newfoundland in the North Atlantic.The linear regression analysis indicates that,the sea level pressure anomalies(SLPA) in the central North Pacific,which is one of the key areas of WWR of the atmospheric circulation anomalies,is essential for the occurrence of the SSTA WWR in the central North Pacific.Moreover,the strongest positive correlations occur when the SLPA lead SSTA in the central North Pacific by 1 month,which suggests that the force of the atmosphere on the ocean may play a dominant role in this area.Therefore,the 'reemergence mechanism' is not the only process influencing the SSTA WWR,the WWR of the atmospheric circulation anomalies may be one of the causes of the SSTA WWR in the central North Pacific. However,this relationship of the air-sea system is not notable between the SLPA in the region near Newfoundland in the North Atlantic and the SSTA in the North Atlantic.
(3) The relationships between WWR in the air-sea system and ENSO, interannual-interdecadal variability,Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and sea ice in the arctic are investigated.The results indicate that,similar to the SSTA WWR,the occurrence of the WWR of the atmosphere circulation anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere is also linearly independent of ENSO,implying that ENSO might not be essential for the occurrence of the WWR of the air-sea system in the Northern Hemisphere.The analyses of different time scales of SSTA indicate that,besides interannual variability(less than ten years),the occurrence of the SSTA WWR in the Northern Hemisphere is also closely related to interdecadal variability of SSTA.In addition,it seems that PDO and the sea ice in the arctic does not influence the temporal-spatial distribution of the WWR of the ocean and atmosphere.
(4) The interannual variability of the SSTA WWR is examined.Results show that SSTA WWR in the North Pacific does not occur in every year.Regardless of the recurrence year and non-recurrence year,the atmospheric forcing and the oceanic process both influence the SSTA. (1) Recurrence year:the influences of the atmospheric forcing and the oceanic reemergence mechanism are the same,because the SSTA in winter of the second year formed by the atmospheric forcing and the oceanic process have the same sign as previous winter.(2) Non-recurrence year:the influences of the atmospheric forcing and the oceanic process are opposite.Since the sign of the atmospheric circulation in the second winter is opposite to that in the previous winter,which induces a sign reversal of the SSTA in the North Pacific.In a word, the force of the atmosphere on the ocean may play a dominant role in the North Pacific, especially in winter.As the Aleutian low weakens(enhances),the westerlies also weaken (enhance),which induce a warm(cold) SSTA in the central North Pacific.
(5) The temporal-spatial characteristics of the persistence barrier of SSTA in the world's oceans are examined.The presence of "the spring persistence barrier(SPB) in El Ni(?)o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)" is well known,which refers to the persistence of ENSO anomalies show a rapid decline in April-June regardless of starting month.In addition to the central and eastern equatorial Pacific,other regions also exist persistence barriers,such as summer barrier in the central North Pacific,fall barrier in the South China Sea and Indonesia region.These are further analyzed in the next two chapters.
(6) The further investigation on the summer persistence barrier in the central North Pacific (CNP) and its cause is performed.Results show that the occurrence of the summer persistence barrier of SSTA in the CNP is linearly independent of ENSO which appears spring persistence barrier.Moreover,the CNP summer persistence barrier,which occurs in the maximum phase of the annual cycle of the CNP sea surface temperature variance,does not resemble the ENSO spring barrier since the ENSO variance is minimum in spring.This suggests the major cause of the CNP summer persistence barrier is essentially different from that of the ENSO spring persistence barrier.In addition,the analyses on different time scales show that the summer persistence barrier in the CNP is closely associated with the interdecadal variability of SSTA in this area,and PDO is an essential factor influencing the occurrence of the CNP summer persistence barrier.Since they both have significant effect on the persistence characteristic of SSTA in the CNP starting from July to December,but not for January-June starting month.In fact,the persistence of the CNP SSTA starting from January to June mainly exhibits winter recurrence.Combined with the results in the chapter 3 and 5,we think that the SSTA persistence in the CNP is influenced not only by the PDO,but also by the local air-sea process. In this way,the summer persistence barrier of SSTA in the CNP occurs.
(7) The possible causes for the persistence barrier of SSTA in the South China Sea(SCS) and its adjacent regions are investigated from the perspective of interannual-interdecadal time scales,and the results are compared with those of ENSO spring barrier.The occurrence of the persistence barrier in the SCS and Indonesia region is closely associated with interdecadal variability of SSTA,as well as interannual variability.The persistence barriers in these two regions do not exist alone if interdecadal variability is not considered.Moreover,the influence of interdecadal variability of SSTA on the persistence barrier of SSTA in the SCS and Indonesia region may be associated with SSTA in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific,but is not closely associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.However,compared with the ENSO SPB,the close relationship between the persistence barriers in the SCS and Indonesia region and the interdecadal variability is unique,since the ENSO SPB is not significantly affected by such variability.
(8) The temporal-spatial characteristics of the SSTA WWR in the Northern Hemisphere, the characteristic of the SSTA persistence in the CNP region and the temporal-spatial characteristics of the persistence barrier of SSTA in the world's oceans are evaluated using the model output of 23 coupled models of CMIP in IPCC 4~(th) assessment.Results show that,most of models can simulate the basinwide winter recurrence of SSTA in the Northern Hemisphere,but they can't simulate the geographical distribution of recurrence timing well.Compared with the SST,little skill is shown in the WWR of the atmospheric Circulation in most models.Second, the characteristics of SSTA persistence in the CNP in the coupled models differ from each other, and only 8 models can simulate the characteristic in the observation.In addition,only 5 models are able to simulate ENSO spring barrier,and 3 for the fall barrier in the Indonesia region. However,there is no model can simulate the summer barrier in the CNP and fall barrier in the SCS.
(1)北半球海温冬季重现的时空分布特征及混合层深度的季节变化。结果表明:北太平洋和北大西洋海温冬季重现的空间范围都是海盆尺度的,但两者具有完全不同的时空结构。在北太平洋,中部重现时间比其周围晚;而在北大西洋以30°N为分界,北边重现晚(为冬季),南边重现早(为秋季)。在此基础上,进一步讨论了北半球海温冬季重现与混合层深度季节变化之间的关系。我们发现,在北大西洋,海洋混合层深度季节变化的地理分布与海温重现的时空结构基本一致。也就是说,混合层深度季节变化大(小),海温重现时间晚(早)。但是对北太平洋,在一些区域混合层深度季节变化的大小并不能解释海温重现时间的早晚。这表明混合层深度的季节变化并不是决定海温冬季重现时间早晚的唯一因子。
(2)北半球大气环流冬季重现及其与海温冬季重现之间的关系。一直以来,人们对冬季重现的研究都是针对海温。这里我们突破前人研究的局限,对北半球大气环流冬季重现的基本特征进行了研究。结果表明:冬季重现不仅仅存在于海洋中,大气环流场也存在显著的冬季重现,主要位于亚洲东部、北太平洋中部和北大西洋纽芬兰附近,而且这几个重现区域在高空也是存在的。在此基础上,重点对大气环流冬季重现与海温冬季重现之间的关系进行了分析,进而对北太平洋海-气系统冬季重现产生的可能机制进行了深入讨论。结果表明,在北太平洋,重现区域海-气之间存在显著的相关。而且大气环流异常与海温异常之间超前相关大于它们之间的滞后相关,这就为大气对海洋的强迫作用可能占主导地位提供了观测上的证据。因此,大气环流存在冬季-冬季的重现,它可能会强迫产生海温冬季-冬季的重现。而且进一步的分析指出,在大气强迫海洋的过程中风应力的作用可能是主要的。以上结果说明海洋内部的‘重现机制'(Alexander et al.,1995)可能并不是产生海温冬季重现的唯一因子,这就为冬季重现研究提供了一个新思路。而在北大西洋,大气环流重现区域的海平面气压与北大西洋海温之间不存在显著的相关。
(3)其它因素对北半球海-气系统冬季重现的可能影响。主要研究了ENSO、年际-年代际变化、PDO以及北极海冰与北半球海气系统冬季重现的关系。结果表明:无论是北半球海温还是大气环流,其冬季重现的产生都与ENSO是线性独立的。这与ENSO自身的持续性特征有关,因为Nino-3区海温只表现出明显的春季障碍特征,但无论从哪个月开始都不存在海温重现现象。所以,ENSO可能并不是北半球海-气系统冬季重现产生的必要因素,海-气系统冬季重现可能是北半球固有的持续性特征。其次,通过对资料进行滤波分析我们发现,除了年际变化(小于10年)以外,北半球海温冬季重现还与这一地区的年代际变化密切相关。而年代际变化对大气环流冬季重现的影响并不是十分显著。最后,对PDO指数及北极海冰的分析表明,虽然PDO及北极海冰存在冬季重现,但它们对整个北半球海-气系统冬季重现的产生并没有显著的影响。
(4)北太平洋冬季重现的年际变化—重现年与非重现年海-气系统的基本特征。从冬季重现的气候学特征出发对每年海温的变化情况进行判定,从而使研究冬季重现的年际变化成为可能。我们的研究结果表明冬季重现并非每年都存在。通过选取重现年和非重现年,对北太平洋海-气系统基本特征(垂直和水平结构)随季节的变化进行了系统的分析和比较,在此基础上进一步对北太平洋冬季重现可能的产生机理进行了深入讨论。结果表明:无论是重现年还是非重现年,大气强迫和海洋内部过程都会对海表温度产生影响。(1)重现年:大气强迫和海洋内部‘重现机制'对海表温度的作用是同向的,因为第二年秋冬季大气强迫和海洋内部过程都会产生与前冬相同的海表温度异常。(2)非重现年:大气强迫和海洋内部‘重现机制'对海表温度的作用是反向的。主要是由于第二年冬季大气异常与前冬反号,大气强迫海洋又是占主的,致使海表温度也发生符号的改变。而对于次表层海温,虽然夏季非重现年与重现年次表层海温具有相同的分布特征,但是非重现年夏季次表层海温的作用不足以抵消接下来冬季大气的强迫作用,所以不能使第二年冬季的海表温度重现。综上所述,无论是重现年还是非重现年,北太平洋海气相互作用主要表现为大气对海洋的强迫,特别是在冬季。阿留申低压减弱(增强),西风减弱(增强),最终导致了北太平洋中部海温增暖(变冷)。因此,海表温度在冬季重现与否主要取决对于大气环流的变化,而海洋内部的‘重现机制'对海表温度的作用可能并不是主要的。
(5)全球海-气系统持续性障碍的时空分布。通过对持续性障碍的定量化定义,利用全球海温格点资料,全面分析了全球海温持续性障碍的时空分布特征。结果表明:除了人们熟知的ENSO春季障碍之外,全球其它区域还存在不同季节的持续性障碍。如:北太平洋中部存在夏季障碍;南海、印度尼西亚区域存在秋季障碍。这是我们下面两章重点研究的内容。
(6)北太平洋海温夏季障碍及其可能的产生原因。在前面的基础上进一步对北太平洋中部海温夏季持续性障碍进行了深入的分析,并从多个方面讨论了其可能的成因。我们发现,北太平洋中部海温的持续性不仅表现出夏季障碍,还存在另一显著特征—冬季重现。通过线性回归分析发现,ENSO并不是夏季障碍产生的必要因素,夏季障碍可能是北太平洋海温固有的持续性特征。对各月平均海温及其标准差的分析发现,海温变化的季节锁相并不能解释北太平洋中部海温夏季障碍的产生。可见,北太平洋海温夏季障碍和ENSO春季障碍产生的主要原因是不同的。进一步的分析表明,北太平洋中部夏季障碍的产生与该地区海温年代际变化密切相关,而且这一关系可能与PDO有关,因为它们对该区域7-12月海温的持续性有显著影响。但是,海温年代际变化和PDO对北太平洋中部1-6月海温持续性的影响并不显著。事实上该区域1-6月海温持续性主要表现出冬季重现特征。结合第三章和第五章的结论,我们认为北太平洋中部海温的持续性不仅受到海盆尺度PDO的影响,同时还受到局地海洋内部过程(重现机制)和大气环流(冬季重现)强迫的作用,从而产生了夏季障碍。
(7)南海-印尼区域秋季障碍与海温年际-年代际变化的关系。从海温年际-年代际变化的角度对南海-印尼海温持续性障碍产生的可能原因进行了研究,并将其与ENSO春季障碍的结果进行了比较。结果表明,南海和印尼区域海温年代际变化的方差占总方差的25%,而Nino-3区的只占10%。这种差异决定了年代际变化在南海-印尼秋季障碍和ENSO春季障碍中所起的作用可能是不同的。对于南海和印尼区域,海温年际变化不能单独产生秋季障碍,如果不考虑海温年代际变化持续性障碍也就不存在。而且,年代际变化对这两个区域海温持续性的影响可能与印度洋和西太平洋海温有关,而PDO对其影响并不显著。然而,海温持续性特征和年代际变化之间的这种关系在Nino-3区并不存在。因为去除海温年代际变化以后,ENSO春季障碍仍然存在。这说明南海-印尼区域秋季障碍与ENSO春季障碍存在明显的区域差异。
(8)IPCC 20C3M耦合模式对海-气系统持续性季节变化的模拟。比较了各模式对北半球海气系统冬季重现的时空特征、北太平洋中部海温持续性特征以及全球海温持续性障碍时空特征的模拟能力。结果表明,大多数模式基本上可以模拟出北半球海温大范围的冬季重现现象。但是与重现范围的模拟相比,耦合模式对重现时间地理差异的模拟都比较差。与海温相比,各模式对大气环流冬季重现时空分布特征的模拟较差,大部分模式未能模拟出大气环流场中主要的重现区域。其次,与观测相比,各耦合模式对北太平洋中部海温持续性特征的模拟结果各不相同。23个模式中8个模式模拟的持续性整体趋势与观测比较接近;9个模式完全没有模拟出这一区域海温持续的主要特征。此外,23个模式中只有5个模式模拟出了赤道中东太平洋的春季障碍,有3个模式模拟出了印尼区域的秋季障碍,而对于北太平洋夏季障碍和南海秋季障碍却没有一个模式模拟出来。
The persistence indicates how long the memory of the system sustain,and hints at the potential predictability of the system.Therefore,a better understanding of the SSTA persistence in the air-sea coupled system should be important for studying the global climate and predicting future climate change.Although more researches have been performed to the seasonal change of the SSTA persistence,the relative studies are still inadequate,even some important questions have not been considered.This study will therefore perform a series of researches on the winter-to-winter recurrence(WWR) and the persistence barrier.First,we comprehensively analyze the temporal-spatial characteristics of the WWR of air-sea system in the Northern Hemisphere,investigate the relationships between the SSTA WWR and the WWR of the atmospheric circulation anomalies,discuss the possible causes of the WWR of air-sea system in the North Pacific,examine the interannual variability of the SSTA WWR though classifying the recurrence year and non-recurrence year.Second,the temporal-spatial characteristics of the persistence barrier of SSTA in the world's oceans are examined.And the further investigations on the summer persistence barrier in the central North Pacific and fall persistence barrier in the South China Sea and Indonesia region are performed.Finally,we evaluate the simulation ability of the WWR and the persistence barrier in the air-sea system using the IPCC 20C3M coupled model output data.The major results are as follows:
(1) The temporal-spatial characteristics of the winter-to-winter recurrence(WWR) of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) in the Northern Hemisphere are comprehensively studied through the lag correlation analysis.Results show that the SSTA WWR in both the North Pacific and Atlantic occurs in most of the basin,but the temporal-spatial distributions of the SSTA WWR in the two oceans are distinctly different.Further analyses indicate that,in the North Atlantic Ocean the temporal-spatial distributions of SSTA WWR are consistent with the spatial distributions of the seasonal cycle of mixed layer depth(MLD),while in the North Pacific Ocean the spatial differences of recurrence timing cannot be completely explained by those of the difference in the MLD between winter and summer in some regions,although the 'reemergence mechanism' still works there.
(2) The atmospheric circulation anomalies also exhibit WWR in the Northern Hemisphere, and it is mainly located in eastern Asia,the central North Pacific and the region near Newfoundland in the North Atlantic.The linear regression analysis indicates that,the sea level pressure anomalies(SLPA) in the central North Pacific,which is one of the key areas of WWR of the atmospheric circulation anomalies,is essential for the occurrence of the SSTA WWR in the central North Pacific.Moreover,the strongest positive correlations occur when the SLPA lead SSTA in the central North Pacific by 1 month,which suggests that the force of the atmosphere on the ocean may play a dominant role in this area.Therefore,the 'reemergence mechanism' is not the only process influencing the SSTA WWR,the WWR of the atmospheric circulation anomalies may be one of the causes of the SSTA WWR in the central North Pacific. However,this relationship of the air-sea system is not notable between the SLPA in the region near Newfoundland in the North Atlantic and the SSTA in the North Atlantic.
(3) The relationships between WWR in the air-sea system and ENSO, interannual-interdecadal variability,Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and sea ice in the arctic are investigated.The results indicate that,similar to the SSTA WWR,the occurrence of the WWR of the atmosphere circulation anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere is also linearly independent of ENSO,implying that ENSO might not be essential for the occurrence of the WWR of the air-sea system in the Northern Hemisphere.The analyses of different time scales of SSTA indicate that,besides interannual variability(less than ten years),the occurrence of the SSTA WWR in the Northern Hemisphere is also closely related to interdecadal variability of SSTA.In addition,it seems that PDO and the sea ice in the arctic does not influence the temporal-spatial distribution of the WWR of the ocean and atmosphere.
(4) The interannual variability of the SSTA WWR is examined.Results show that SSTA WWR in the North Pacific does not occur in every year.Regardless of the recurrence year and non-recurrence year,the atmospheric forcing and the oceanic process both influence the SSTA. (1) Recurrence year:the influences of the atmospheric forcing and the oceanic reemergence mechanism are the same,because the SSTA in winter of the second year formed by the atmospheric forcing and the oceanic process have the same sign as previous winter.(2) Non-recurrence year:the influences of the atmospheric forcing and the oceanic process are opposite.Since the sign of the atmospheric circulation in the second winter is opposite to that in the previous winter,which induces a sign reversal of the SSTA in the North Pacific.In a word, the force of the atmosphere on the ocean may play a dominant role in the North Pacific, especially in winter.As the Aleutian low weakens(enhances),the westerlies also weaken (enhance),which induce a warm(cold) SSTA in the central North Pacific.
(5) The temporal-spatial characteristics of the persistence barrier of SSTA in the world's oceans are examined.The presence of "the spring persistence barrier(SPB) in El Ni(?)o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)" is well known,which refers to the persistence of ENSO anomalies show a rapid decline in April-June regardless of starting month.In addition to the central and eastern equatorial Pacific,other regions also exist persistence barriers,such as summer barrier in the central North Pacific,fall barrier in the South China Sea and Indonesia region.These are further analyzed in the next two chapters.
(6) The further investigation on the summer persistence barrier in the central North Pacific (CNP) and its cause is performed.Results show that the occurrence of the summer persistence barrier of SSTA in the CNP is linearly independent of ENSO which appears spring persistence barrier.Moreover,the CNP summer persistence barrier,which occurs in the maximum phase of the annual cycle of the CNP sea surface temperature variance,does not resemble the ENSO spring barrier since the ENSO variance is minimum in spring.This suggests the major cause of the CNP summer persistence barrier is essentially different from that of the ENSO spring persistence barrier.In addition,the analyses on different time scales show that the summer persistence barrier in the CNP is closely associated with the interdecadal variability of SSTA in this area,and PDO is an essential factor influencing the occurrence of the CNP summer persistence barrier.Since they both have significant effect on the persistence characteristic of SSTA in the CNP starting from July to December,but not for January-June starting month.In fact,the persistence of the CNP SSTA starting from January to June mainly exhibits winter recurrence.Combined with the results in the chapter 3 and 5,we think that the SSTA persistence in the CNP is influenced not only by the PDO,but also by the local air-sea process. In this way,the summer persistence barrier of SSTA in the CNP occurs.
(7) The possible causes for the persistence barrier of SSTA in the South China Sea(SCS) and its adjacent regions are investigated from the perspective of interannual-interdecadal time scales,and the results are compared with those of ENSO spring barrier.The occurrence of the persistence barrier in the SCS and Indonesia region is closely associated with interdecadal variability of SSTA,as well as interannual variability.The persistence barriers in these two regions do not exist alone if interdecadal variability is not considered.Moreover,the influence of interdecadal variability of SSTA on the persistence barrier of SSTA in the SCS and Indonesia region may be associated with SSTA in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific,but is not closely associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.However,compared with the ENSO SPB,the close relationship between the persistence barriers in the SCS and Indonesia region and the interdecadal variability is unique,since the ENSO SPB is not significantly affected by such variability.
(8) The temporal-spatial characteristics of the SSTA WWR in the Northern Hemisphere, the characteristic of the SSTA persistence in the CNP region and the temporal-spatial characteristics of the persistence barrier of SSTA in the world's oceans are evaluated using the model output of 23 coupled models of CMIP in IPCC 4~(th) assessment.Results show that,most of models can simulate the basinwide winter recurrence of SSTA in the Northern Hemisphere,but they can't simulate the geographical distribution of recurrence timing well.Compared with the SST,little skill is shown in the WWR of the atmospheric Circulation in most models.Second, the characteristics of SSTA persistence in the CNP in the coupled models differ from each other, and only 8 models can simulate the characteristic in the observation.In addition,only 5 models are able to simulate ENSO spring barrier,and 3 for the fall barrier in the Indonesia region. However,there is no model can simulate the summer barrier in the CNP and fall barrier in the SCS.
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