不确定环境下项目调度方法的研究与实现
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摘要
有效的项目管理是提高企业竞争力的重要途径,其核心内容是项目调度和控制。以往的关于项目调度的研究主要集中在理想的调度环境中,一般以确定性的数学模型为基础,与实际的项目调度环境存在很大差别。项目的执行环境中往往存在着很多动态不确定因素,如任务工期变动、交付期变更等。如何在项目调度中考虑这些不确定因素,已经成为解决实际问题的关键。动态不确定环境下的项目调度问题,其求解难度远远超过确定性调度问题,使得以往的研究方法难以直接应用,对问题的求解提出了更高的要求。
项目调度的目标是指导实际生产过程。产品开发项目以单件小批量为生产方式,在项目调度中侧重于过程管理,不可能脱离项目的业务过程和其中的管理要素,需要依托合理有效的项目管理来实现。因此有必要对产品开发项目的业务过程和项目管理进行分析和建模,从而有效地应用调度方法,提升产品开发项目的执行力。
本文将影响项目执行的不确定因素归结为时间不确定性,针对时间不确定条件下的项目调度方法进行研究,主要研究内容和成果概括如下:
1)首先研究了确定性资源受限的项目调度问题。提出了启发式的迭代局部搜索方法,设计了避免无用搜索的措施,采用对齐技术提高局部搜索能力,并且设计2个摄动方法加强跳出局部最优的能力。仿真实验证明该方法可以有效提高解的质量。确定性RCPSP的调度结果作为基线调度方案,是后续的不确定调度方法的基础。
2)对随机工期情况下的资源受限项目调度问题进行研究,调度的目标是获得任务的最优执行序列。采用基于任务的优先策略设计了启发式方法,在采用随机工期向量的仿真中获得了较好效果。通过将最早开始策略和基于资源的优先策略结合,并设计两种资源弧的确定方法,分别提出资源弧的随机采样方法和非标准的GA方法,从而进一步提高了求解质量。
3)以方案鲁棒性为目标研究了前馈调度方法,通过前馈调度方案吸收一部分已知的干扰因素。以未考虑工期不确定性的基线调度方案为基础,设计了一体化寻优的前馈调度过程。将基线方案优化过程与时间缓冲区的设置过程合二为一,提出了缓冲串行调度生成方案,并且通过替代目标函数简化稳定性指标的估算,从而降低了中间过程的计算复杂性。仿真实验结果证明了方法的有效性。
4)研究了项目执行过程中的反应式调度方法,反应式调度过程致力于在项目执行过程中对未能预知的干扰进行应对。结合反应式策略和调度生成方案,分别提出了基于粒子群优化的元启发式算法和启发式搜索方法,设计4个局部搜索方法提高求解质量,从而解决反应式调度修复问题。仿真测试表明该反应式过程可以满足调度修复的简单快捷要求。
5)针对产品开发项目中的业务过程及其中的管理要素,将业务过程中的技术和管理集成,采用项目模板对任务管理进行规范化。指出风险管理在项目计划、调度和控制阶段的不同作用,在调度中考虑设计任务的返工可能性,采用了扩展的优先级计算方式。对产品开发项目管理和项目调度的业务过程、项目调度用例模型、数据模型等进行分析和建模,并对项目管理和调度的部分功能进行了实现。
Effective project management is an important approach to improve the competitiveness of enterprise, and the core point is the project scheduling and control. Previous works mostly focused on scheduling problems based on deterministic mathematical models with an assumption that the scheduling environment is ideal, thus there is large gap between theory and practice of project scheduling. There are many kinds of uncertainties in the practical project execution, such as variant task duration, due date changes. Considering the influence of uncertainties when generating the schedule is the key problem to bridge the gap between theory and practice. In the dynamic and uncertain environments, scheduling becomes more complicate than the deterministic and static one, which brings many difficulties to directly use the methods for the static problem.
The aim of project scheduling is to guide the actual production process. The production mode of product development project is the single-piece-small-batches. The project scheduling of product development project concerns with process management, and should by no means be separated from the business process and its managerial factors. The realization of scheduling should base on rational and effective project management. Thus it is necessary to analyze and model the business process and project management to effectively apply the scheduling approaches and to improve the executive ability of product development project.
The uncertainties which disturb the project execution are boiled down to the time uncertainty, the project scheduling under time uncertainty is studied. The main research work lies in five aspects as follows.
1) The determined resource constrained project scheduling is studied. A heuristic iterated local search procedure is presented. The measure is designed to avoid useless search action. The double-shift is used to improve the ability of local search, while two perturbation procedures are designed to overcome local optimality. The results show that the presented ILS procedure can effectively improve the scheduling quality. As the baseline schedule, the result of RCPSP is the basic of research on scheduling under uncertainty.
2) The resource constrained project scheduling with stochastic duration is investigated with the objective of generating the optimal scheduling sequence. A heuristic method which is designed using activity based priority policy is presented. The results tested by sampling duration vectors show that the method can improve the scheduling quality. The earliest start policy and resource based priority policy are combined. By means of combination the earliest start policy and the resource based priority policy, and two resource arc allocation methods, a resource arcs random sampling method and a non-standard GA approach are presented. The scheduling quality can be further improved by these two methods.
3) The proactive schedule method is proposed under the objective of minimizing the solution robustness. Proactive scheduling focuses at absorbing future partial known disruptions. An integrated optimization process is designed based on the baseline schedule without putting the duration uncertainty into consideration. The optimization of baseline schedule and the time buffer allocation and optimization are combined into one process; the buffered serial scheduling generation scheme is presented. In order to decrease the complexity of intermediate process, a surrogate objective function is used to simplify the evaluation of robustness. The effectiveness of the presented method is tested by simulation.
4) The reactive scheduling method is studied. The reactive schedule procedure denotes to how to react when unknown disruption occurs during the project execution. For the reactive scheduling problem, two methods, a particle swarm optimization based meta-heuristic method and a heuristic search approach, are presented combined with reactive policy and scheduling generation scheme. Four local search procedures are designed to improve the search quality. The simulation experiments show that the presented approaches can satisfy the simple and prompt requirements of reactive procedure.
5) Aiming at the business process and its management factors in product development project, the technical and managerial factors are integrated. Task management is standardized by the project template. The different roles of risk management for the project plan, scheduling and control phases are pointed out. The extended calculation method for task priority is proposed in consideration of rework risk of design task. For the project management and scheduling, the business process, scheduling use case and data model, et al., are analyzed and modeled by object-oriented method. Finally, parts of project management and scheduling functions are developed and implemented.
项目调度的目标是指导实际生产过程。产品开发项目以单件小批量为生产方式,在项目调度中侧重于过程管理,不可能脱离项目的业务过程和其中的管理要素,需要依托合理有效的项目管理来实现。因此有必要对产品开发项目的业务过程和项目管理进行分析和建模,从而有效地应用调度方法,提升产品开发项目的执行力。
本文将影响项目执行的不确定因素归结为时间不确定性,针对时间不确定条件下的项目调度方法进行研究,主要研究内容和成果概括如下:
1)首先研究了确定性资源受限的项目调度问题。提出了启发式的迭代局部搜索方法,设计了避免无用搜索的措施,采用对齐技术提高局部搜索能力,并且设计2个摄动方法加强跳出局部最优的能力。仿真实验证明该方法可以有效提高解的质量。确定性RCPSP的调度结果作为基线调度方案,是后续的不确定调度方法的基础。
2)对随机工期情况下的资源受限项目调度问题进行研究,调度的目标是获得任务的最优执行序列。采用基于任务的优先策略设计了启发式方法,在采用随机工期向量的仿真中获得了较好效果。通过将最早开始策略和基于资源的优先策略结合,并设计两种资源弧的确定方法,分别提出资源弧的随机采样方法和非标准的GA方法,从而进一步提高了求解质量。
3)以方案鲁棒性为目标研究了前馈调度方法,通过前馈调度方案吸收一部分已知的干扰因素。以未考虑工期不确定性的基线调度方案为基础,设计了一体化寻优的前馈调度过程。将基线方案优化过程与时间缓冲区的设置过程合二为一,提出了缓冲串行调度生成方案,并且通过替代目标函数简化稳定性指标的估算,从而降低了中间过程的计算复杂性。仿真实验结果证明了方法的有效性。
4)研究了项目执行过程中的反应式调度方法,反应式调度过程致力于在项目执行过程中对未能预知的干扰进行应对。结合反应式策略和调度生成方案,分别提出了基于粒子群优化的元启发式算法和启发式搜索方法,设计4个局部搜索方法提高求解质量,从而解决反应式调度修复问题。仿真测试表明该反应式过程可以满足调度修复的简单快捷要求。
5)针对产品开发项目中的业务过程及其中的管理要素,将业务过程中的技术和管理集成,采用项目模板对任务管理进行规范化。指出风险管理在项目计划、调度和控制阶段的不同作用,在调度中考虑设计任务的返工可能性,采用了扩展的优先级计算方式。对产品开发项目管理和项目调度的业务过程、项目调度用例模型、数据模型等进行分析和建模,并对项目管理和调度的部分功能进行了实现。
Effective project management is an important approach to improve the competitiveness of enterprise, and the core point is the project scheduling and control. Previous works mostly focused on scheduling problems based on deterministic mathematical models with an assumption that the scheduling environment is ideal, thus there is large gap between theory and practice of project scheduling. There are many kinds of uncertainties in the practical project execution, such as variant task duration, due date changes. Considering the influence of uncertainties when generating the schedule is the key problem to bridge the gap between theory and practice. In the dynamic and uncertain environments, scheduling becomes more complicate than the deterministic and static one, which brings many difficulties to directly use the methods for the static problem.
The aim of project scheduling is to guide the actual production process. The production mode of product development project is the single-piece-small-batches. The project scheduling of product development project concerns with process management, and should by no means be separated from the business process and its managerial factors. The realization of scheduling should base on rational and effective project management. Thus it is necessary to analyze and model the business process and project management to effectively apply the scheduling approaches and to improve the executive ability of product development project.
The uncertainties which disturb the project execution are boiled down to the time uncertainty, the project scheduling under time uncertainty is studied. The main research work lies in five aspects as follows.
1) The determined resource constrained project scheduling is studied. A heuristic iterated local search procedure is presented. The measure is designed to avoid useless search action. The double-shift is used to improve the ability of local search, while two perturbation procedures are designed to overcome local optimality. The results show that the presented ILS procedure can effectively improve the scheduling quality. As the baseline schedule, the result of RCPSP is the basic of research on scheduling under uncertainty.
2) The resource constrained project scheduling with stochastic duration is investigated with the objective of generating the optimal scheduling sequence. A heuristic method which is designed using activity based priority policy is presented. The results tested by sampling duration vectors show that the method can improve the scheduling quality. The earliest start policy and resource based priority policy are combined. By means of combination the earliest start policy and the resource based priority policy, and two resource arc allocation methods, a resource arcs random sampling method and a non-standard GA approach are presented. The scheduling quality can be further improved by these two methods.
3) The proactive schedule method is proposed under the objective of minimizing the solution robustness. Proactive scheduling focuses at absorbing future partial known disruptions. An integrated optimization process is designed based on the baseline schedule without putting the duration uncertainty into consideration. The optimization of baseline schedule and the time buffer allocation and optimization are combined into one process; the buffered serial scheduling generation scheme is presented. In order to decrease the complexity of intermediate process, a surrogate objective function is used to simplify the evaluation of robustness. The effectiveness of the presented method is tested by simulation.
4) The reactive scheduling method is studied. The reactive schedule procedure denotes to how to react when unknown disruption occurs during the project execution. For the reactive scheduling problem, two methods, a particle swarm optimization based meta-heuristic method and a heuristic search approach, are presented combined with reactive policy and scheduling generation scheme. Four local search procedures are designed to improve the search quality. The simulation experiments show that the presented approaches can satisfy the simple and prompt requirements of reactive procedure.
5) Aiming at the business process and its management factors in product development project, the technical and managerial factors are integrated. Task management is standardized by the project template. The different roles of risk management for the project plan, scheduling and control phases are pointed out. The extended calculation method for task priority is proposed in consideration of rework risk of design task. For the project management and scheduling, the business process, scheduling use case and data model, et al., are analyzed and modeled by object-oriented method. Finally, parts of project management and scheduling functions are developed and implemented.
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