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中国交通事故和交通伤成因、特点与趋势研究
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摘要
研究背景和目的:随着我国经济的发展,对道路建设投入的加大,我国道路建设速度不断加快,至2008年我国公路里程就达1996年的3.15倍,同时我国人民经济收入水平连年提高,私家车不断增多,机动车保有量也快速增加,2008年机动车保有量达1996年的4.71倍,进入21世纪的中国道路交通事故和交通伤形势可能出现了一些新的特点。我国道路交通管理部门年报数据显示我国的道路交通安全形势出现好转态势、事故及致死人数不断下降,但同时一些研究机构和个人预测中国道路交通事故和事故致死人数持续增加,有研究中报道:我国每年因交通伤害实际死亡人数平均在27.39万人以上,此数据大大高于年报数据。对我国的道路交通事故及伤亡进行深入细致的调查和分析,将有助于更准确揭示交通事故和交通伤的成因、特点、规律,为有效开展交通事故及交通伤预防、促进交通伤救治打下基础。
     方法:1、研制科学规范的交通事故与交通伤调查表,编制道路交通事故调查软件,采集道路交通事故及其伤亡数据,建立道路交通事故与交通伤数据库;2、从国家公安部交通管理局获取我国道路交通事故及伤亡整体数据资料,研究全国交通事故与交通伤的流行病学特点、成因与防治关键等;3、抽样采集重庆市有代表性的公安交通管理支队近7年道路交通事故和交通伤案件资料,录入交通事故和交通伤数据库,对重庆市道路交通事故和交通伤详细情况进行深入细致的分析研究,以探讨重庆市不同地区、不同人员的道路交通事故及伤亡的成因、特点及其差异等。
     主要结果:
     1.研制出“地区年度道路交通事故调查表”和“道路交通事故个案调查表”,共包括384个采集项目,调查项目包括:地区人口、道路建设及经济情况、事故总体情况、各级道路事故及伤亡情况;具体事故的一般情况、道路环境、事故原因与责任、肇事车辆、人员损伤等信息。在调查表基础上编制了“道路交通事故调查数据库软件V1.0”,并获国家版权局著作权保护,版权登记号:2008SR05320。从多个层次采集交通事故与交通伤数据,共获得自1996年以后13年的全国道路交通事故和交通伤害年度整体数据;同时采集了重庆市4个交警支队辖区2000-2006年间33987起一般以上道路交通事故和52369例交通伤亡人员信息。建立了“道路交通事故与交通伤数据库”。
     2.对全国道路交通事故和交通伤数据资料进行了深入研究,揭示了全国道路交通事故及交通伤的规律与特点。主要结果有:
     交通事故和交通伤趋势:我国道路交通事故和交通伤亡人数先逐年增加,至2002年分别达高峰(77.31万起、10.94万人),随后逐年下降;交通安全水平持续改善,2008年万车死亡率降至4.33;10万人口死亡率在2002年达高峰(8.79),随后逐年好转,至2008年降至5.66。
     事故原因:机动车驾驶人原因所致事故逐渐升高,1996年为83.20%,2008年达94.90%,事故具体原因以机动车驾驶人不按规定让行、超速行驶、措施不当、疏忽大意、未保持安全距离等违章与过错因素为主;行人和乘客因素导致的事故比例从1996年的5.00%逐年下降,2008年仅占1.37%;道路及环境因素所致事故比例较低。
     人员伤害特点:受伤人员中动车驾驶人最多(占38.70%),其次是乘客(占30.56%);死亡人员中机动车驾驶人最多(占32.05%)、行人次之(25.76%)。行人在事故中的伤死率和事故烈度明显高于驾驶人和乘客。死亡人员在26-40岁年龄段最多,但65岁以上人员在事故中伤死率最高。
     地区分布特点:我国中东部经济发达地区道路交通事故和交通伤发生高于西部欠发达地区,但欠发达地区事故严重程度强于前者,其百事故死亡率和事故烈度明显高于发达地区,并且欠发达地区事故的严重程度呈缓慢增加态势。
     不同道路事故特征:60%以上的事故和人员伤亡发生在占全国总公路里程数27%左右的二级和三级公路上;但一级公路百公里事故率和百公里死亡率最高,其次是高速公路,百事故死亡率以二级公路最高;高速公路事故伤死率最高、烈度最强。
     3.对重庆市抽样地区的交通事故和交通伤害情况进行了深入对比研究,主要结果有:
     交通事故及交通伤概况:抽样地区万车死亡率和平均10万人口死亡率高于全国平均水平,交通安全形势较同期整体水平严重;交通事故和交通伤没有出现明显下降趋势,相反事故数和郊县交通伤致死人数出现波动上升的态势。
     事故原因:所有事故以机动车驾驶人违章行为和过错原因为主,其所致事故占84%左右;行人原因所致事故占11%左右,其他原因仅占5%左右;城区行人原因所致事故比例显著高于近郊区、郊县和全国整体水平。
     地区事故分布特点:城区和近郊区事故数明显多于郊县地区,郊县和近郊区的事故致死人数及其比例明显高于城区,郊县的百事故死亡率和事故烈度明显高于另外2个地区,并呈上升趋势;城区事故主要发生在城市道路,郊县事故及伤亡主要发生在普通公路;道路中央隔离带对事故严重程度没有明显影响,但可以减少事故的发生;小型客车所致事故比例最高,但城区和近郊区中小型货车事故致死人员比例最高,郊县摩托车事故致死人员比例最高;摩托车事故及伤亡比例呈上升趋势。
     伤亡人员特点:受伤人员中乘客占56.28%,行人占24.74%,驾驶员占18.98%,死亡人员中行人最多(49.46%),其次是驾驶员(27.84%),再次是乘客(22.70%);城区行人死亡比例(67.93%)明显高于郊区和郊县;行人事故烈度强于驾驶员和乘客,郊县行人事故烈度明显强于另2个地区。
     不同年龄人员伤亡情况:21-50岁年龄段人员受伤最多,其中以31-35岁人员受伤比例最高;死亡人员集中在26-55岁和65岁以上人员,其中65岁以上人员比例最高(接近20%),其次是36-40岁年龄段人员;65岁以上人员事故伤死率和烈度最高,分别为16.12%和5.74。
     交通伤伤情特点:行人重度损伤占到重度伤总数的52.46%,明显高于其在轻中度损伤中的比例(38.00%);交通伤损伤部位以头部最多,特别是在AIS 5、6的严重损伤中头部损伤者占到80%以上;行人头部伤比例高于驾驶员和乘客,驾驶员和乘客面部轻中度损伤比例高于行人,乘客胸部和脊柱重度损伤比例高于驾驶员和行人。
     结论:
     1.我国道路交通事故安全形势正处于从交通安全水平改善、人身安全水平恶化的第II阶段,向交通安全与人身安全水平同步改善的第III阶段过渡的转型期。但在农村、边远和经济相对落后的部分地区,交通安全形势仍很严峻,其交通事故和交通伤的数量和严重程度都显著高于发达地区和城市;特别是一些农村地区还没有进入转型期,甚至交通安全形势呈现出不断恶化的态势,应给与足够的关注和重视。
     2.总的来说,我国道路交通事故主要是由于机动车驾驶人的违章和失误所导致,其次是行人的原因;在重庆,其行人原因比例明显高于全国水平,且城区行人原因所致交通事故呈上升的态势。
     3.全国60%以上的道路交通事故和事故致人员死亡发生在二级公路和三级公路上,高速公路和一级公路事故严重程度最高。
     4.从全国范围看,交通伤死亡者中驾驶人最多,行人次之。但重庆市数据则显示死亡行人最多;农村地区摩托车驾驶人致死比例较高,并呈上升态势;65岁以上老年人在事故中受伤害最严重。在交通事故受伤人员中,行人重度交通伤比例最高;头部交通伤发生率最高,且是交通伤致死的最主要原因;行人和车内人员的受伤部位有明显的差异。
     5.针对本研究结果中道路交通事故与交通伤发生的特点,分别有针对性加强农村和经济欠发达地区、二级与三级公路、高速公路的建设和管理,加强行人和摩托车驾驶人的管理和教育,完善交通伤医疗急救体系,加强老年人及颅脑伤员的急救治疗等是预防交通事故伤害及其死亡率的有效措施。
     6.我国应加强道路交通事故及交通伤救治相关信息资料的规范记录与保存,建立科学、完整的道路交通事故与交通伤数据库,深化交通伤的成因及其预防救治的流行病学研究,更有效地促进我国交通伤害的预防与救治进步与发展。
Background and objective: Fast economic development and increased investment in infrastructure construction accelerate road construction in China, with road mileage in 2008 up to 3.15 times of that in 1996. At the same time, the vehicle population in China shows a significant increase with higher GDP, for instance, the vehicle population in 2008 was up to 4.71 times of that in 1996. In the 21st Century, road traffic crash (RTC) and road traffic injury (RTI) in China manifest some new characteristics. The annual traffic report shows that both the number of RTC and the total death toll have been descended, indicating an improvement of traffic situation in China. In the meantime, some researchers predict that the number of RTC and the death toll will increase continuously. There reported that the average amount of death caused by RTC excelled 273.9 thousands each year, which was markedly higher than that reported by the annual data. Investigaton and analysis of RTC and the casualty caused by RTC will be helpful for understanding the causes, features and regulations of RTC and RTI in China, which will further lay a good foundation for prevention of RTC and RTI.
     Methods: 1 We made a set of scientific and standard RTC and RTI survey form and developed a software for collection of data on RTC and RTI.Then, we established a“Road Traffic Crashes and Road Traffic Injuries Database”(“RTC&RTIDB”). 2 The annual reports were obtained from the official department of road traffic administration. The whole data were analyzed to find the epidemiologic features, causes and prevention of RTC and RTI. 3 Sampling data of RTC and RTI were taken from some typical districts in Chongqing from 2000-2006 and recorded into“RTC&IDB”database. The data were analyzed to explore the causes, features and differences of RTC and RTI in different regions and different personnel in Chonqgqing.
     Results:
     1 We successfully developed Regional Annual Road Traffic Crash Survey Form and Road Traffic Crash Case Survey Form, with 384 items. The general items included the regional population, road construction, regional economy, and whole TRC&RTI; the general information, road traffic condition, causes, vehicle&driver, casualty of RTC cases. In the meantime, Road Rraffic Crash Survey Database Software V1.0 was developed and the copyright of this software was protected by National Copyright Bureau, with registry number of 2008SR05320. The total data of RTC and casualty in 13 years since 1996 in China as well as 3398 RTCs and 52369 casualties of 4 districts in Chongqing from 2000-2006 were collected in detail. The“RTC&IDB”was established.
     2 The national data of RTC and RTI of China were analyzed to reveal the features and patterns of RTC and RTI in China. The main results are as follows:
     1) The tendency of RTC and RTI: Before 2003, the number of RTC and casualties increased yearly, reached the peak (773.1 thousands cases and 109.4 thousands death) in 2002 and then descended year by year. The traffic safety level got continual improvement, with the mortality rate per 10000 vehicles for 4.33 in 2008. The mortality rate per 100,000 persons reached the peak (8.79) in 2002 and then decreased to 5.66 in 2008.
     2) The causes of RTC: The driver was the major factor leading to RTCs, which increased gradually and accounted for 83.20% in 1996 and 94.90% in 2008. The five leading causes of RTCs for drivers were illegal giving a way, overspeed, faulty operation, carelessness and keeping unsafe distance. The RTCs caused by pedestrian and passengers were decreased gradually from 5.00% in 1996 to 1.37% in 2008. The RTCs due to road and environmtental factors accounted for rather low proportion.
     3) Injury features: The injured drivers accounted for 38.70% and the passengers for 30.56%. The death of drivers and pedestrians ranked the first two places, ie, 32.05% and 25.76% respectively. The mortality and intensity of the pedestrians were significantly higher than that of the drivers and passengers. Most of the death were among the injured at age of 26-40 years. The persons over 65 years had the highest mortality than others.
     4) Regional distribution of RTC&RTI: The developed districts in eastern China had higher number of RTCs&RTI than that of underdeveloped districts in western China. But the severity of RTC of the latter was higher than that of the former. The mortality rate per 100 RTCs and intensity in the underdeveloped districts were higher or stronger, with a tendency of increase in aspect of the severity of RTC.
     5) Highway distribution of RTC: Over 60% of RTCs and casualties occurred on the second and third class highways, which accounted for 27% of total highway mileage. But the first class highway had leading incidence rate per 100 km and mortality rate per 100 km, next with the express way. The second class road had the leading mortality rate per 100RTCs and the express way had the leading mortality rate of RTC and strongest intensity.
     3. The data of RTC and RTI of sampling regions in Chongqing were comparatively analyzed and the main results are as follows:
     1) The overviews of RTC&RTI: The sampling regions had higher mortality rate per 10000 vehicles and mortality rate per 100000 persons than overall national data. The severity of RTC was higher than average national level. There showed no obvious decrease in RTC&RTI in sampling regions and nationwide. The number of RTCs and deaths were increased in countryside areas.
     2) The causes of RTC: The illegal behavior and fault of drivers were the major causes for RTCs. The RTCs caused by diver account for 84%, followed by pedestrians (11%) and other factors (5%). The percentage of RTCs in downtown was significantly higher than that in suburban area and countryside areas.
     3) Regional distribution of RTC: The RTCs in downtown and suburban area were significantly more than that in countryside areas. The number of deaths in suburban area and countryside areas was significantly higher than that in downtown. The mortality rate per 100RTCs and intensity in downtown were higher or stronger than that in other two areas, in a tendency of increase. The RTCs mainly took place in downtown road, and the RTCs and casualties mainly occurred on highway in countryside areas. Installation of central isolation belt was useful for reducing the number of RTCs, without influence on the severity of RTC. The number of RTCs caused by cars ranked the highest. The vehicle types causing highest rate of deaths in downtown and suburban areas were middle or small trucks, but that in countryside areas was motorcycles. The number of RTCs and casualties caused by motorcycles were under an increasing tendency.
     4)Age distribution of casualties: Most of the injured were at age of 21-50 years. The highest percentage of injuries were at 31-35 years. Most of the deaths were at age of 26-55 years and over 65 years. The highest mortality rate was 20% in persons at over 65 years, next those at 36-40 years. The persons at over 65 years old had highest mortality (16.12%) and strongest intensity (5.74) than others.
     5)Injury features: The severe injuries of pedestrians accounted for 52.46%, which was higher than those with slight and moderate injuries (38.00%). Most types of RTI were brain injuries, especially the injuries with AIS5,6 (accounting for over 80%). The percentage of pedestrians with brain injuries was higher than that of drivers and passengers. The percentage of drivers and passengers with facial injuries was higher than that of pedestrians. The percentage of passengers with thoracic and spine injuries was higher than that of drivers and pedestrians.
     Conclusions:
     1. RTC safety in China is developing from the II stage, when the level of traffic safety (LTS) is improving but level of personal safety (LPS) is unfavorable, to the III stage, when LTS and LPS are all improving. But in some regions especially some countryside areas, the RTC safety is still under a poor situation, where we should pay special attention,
     2. In China, the driver of vehicle is the major cause leading to RTCs, next by pedestrians. The rate of RTCs caused by pedestrians in Chongqing is higher than that of national overall level, with a tendency of increase in the downtown.
     3. In China, more than 60% of RTC&RTI occurred on the second and third calss highways. But RTCs occurred on expressway and first class highway usually cause the most serious results.
     4. Drivers of vehicle have highest death rate in China but pedestrians in Chongqing. The motorcyclists have higher death rate in countryside areas. The persons at over 65 years have the highest severity of RTI. The pedestrians had higher rate of severe RTI. Most RTI are brain injuries that are the main causes of death. There is significant difference in aspect of injury locations between passenger and the pedestrians
     5. To decrease RTCs, it is necessary to improve infrastructure construction and traffic management of the third and second class roads in countryside areas,and strengthen education and management on pedestrians and motorcyclists. We should establish an efficient medical first aid system, emphasizing emergency care of the elderly and brain injury persons, which is effective measures for prevention injuries caused by RTCs and reduction of mortality.
     6. In addition, when we treating RTCs and RTI,we should pay attention to scientific and complete preservation of the records of RTC&RTI, as will be helpful for further carrying out epidemiological study and effectively promoting development of prevention of RTC and treatment of RTI in China..
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