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地震先兆电离层舒曼谐振异常监测方法研究
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摘要
地震爆发前,伴随巨大能量释放的孕育过程,肯定会有一些物理现象可以被观测到,因而地震是可以预报的,但地震孕育涉及的因素很多,过程也非常复杂。地震短临预报是全球学者苦苦探索了几个世纪的科学难题。近几年,一些学者宣称,地震先兆的电磁监测很可能是短临地震预测的突破口;地震预报要突破,机理研究是关键,而机理研究迫切需要有效的新预测方法支持。由日本学者发现的震前舒曼谐振异常开启了频域地震先兆监测的新思路。然而日本的地面观测舒曼谐振方法受人为工业噪声干扰影响严重,对“异常源”定位困难。本文依据舒曼谐振波在地-电离层谐振腔中分布必然扰动低电离层的假设,研究了基于电离层非线性的舒曼谐振地震前兆监测的新方法。利用高频电磁波与舒曼谐振在电离层底部的非线性调制作用,从接收到的高频波中解调出异常舒曼谐振波,进行地震前兆监测,找到了新的可能的地震短临预报方法,全文主要工作概述如下:
     (1)提出并研究了基于电离层非线性的舒曼谐振地震先兆电磁监测的新方法
     首先,阐述了国际上地震电磁监测的发展概况,介绍了近些年国际上发现的地球自然谐振与地震活动关联的研究,明晰了地震先兆监测已进入频域监测的新时期;由此提出的基于电离层非线性的舒曼谐振地震电磁监测的新方法,该监测方法很大程度上降低了极低频人为噪声干扰,减弱了以往的时域监测无法区分地震异常和其它干扰的问题,可揭示地震引发的多层耦合机理并探索异常源定位的可能性,是一种全新的大尺度地震电磁监测方法。该方法监测地-电离层空腔的上边界舒曼谐振,可与地面测量的腔体下边界舒曼谐振对比,进行天地一体化的地震前兆监测。
     (2)研究了多次作用模式的电离层交叉调制理论
     在Gurevich的电离层交叉调制理论基础上,对多次作用模式的电离层交叉调制理论进行了研究。针对已有交叉调制理论中,没有考虑多次作用条件下电磁波传播引起的相位变化对调制度计算影响的欠缺,本文分析了各向同性和各向异性等离子体条件下,多次作用时电磁波相位变化对最终调制度的影响。结果表明各向异性等离子体中多次作用调制理论和各向同性电离层中计算的结果一致。该研究结论为下一步低电离层高频电磁波与舒曼谐振的非线性作用研究奠定了基础。
     (3)研究了多次作用模式的HF-SR作用理论并提出了基于电离层非线性的舒曼谐振地震前兆观测新方法
     Yampolski提出了大气电场作用下HF-SR(高频波-舒曼谐振, high frequency-Schumann Resonance)作用理论,在其基础上进一步讨论了多次作用模式的HF-SR作用理论。具体研究了舒曼谐振在地-电离层谐振腔里的分布,结合多次作用电离层交叉调制理论的研究结论,讨论了电离层底部高频电磁波与舒曼谐振的非线性作用。结合乌克兰国家科学院的一次验证实验,对环绕地球传播的高频波与舒曼谐振的非线性作用进行了工程计算,结果表明选择电离层的一次反射信号同样可获得与环绕地球传播的高频波接近的调制深度,系统的工程实现难度降低。选择我国BPM短波授时信号,在我国东部沿海地区建设观测站。
     (4)提出了便于未来推广布站的基于电离层非线性的舒曼谐振异常监测设计并研制了观测系统
     在理论研究的基础上,提出了基于电离层非线性的舒曼谐振地震前兆监测系统的简化设计方案以便未来推广布站。进行了高频电磁波传播的工程计算并计算了高频段大气无线电噪声、人为噪声及系统内噪声等,结合调制深度的计算结果,提出了系统的设计要求。根据设计要求进行了短波交叉偶极子天线和零中频短波接收机的设计和研制工作,完成了观测系统布站。
     (5)分析了低电离层舒曼谐振较长期观测的数据并研究了SR提取方法
     观测系统研制完成后,进行了较长时期的监测实验,成功在HF上获取了的舒曼谐振信号。提出了差分滤波法、分段归一化法及曲线拟合法等提取舒曼谐振信号的分析方法。观测结果与国际上舒曼谐振观测进行了对比;分析了观测期间BPM传播路径附近发生的2次地震对应的舒曼谐振情况,结合日本Haywkawa、Ohta等人对震前舒曼谐振异常的规律研究,得到了疑似与河南周口附近的4.7级地震活动有关的舒曼谐振异常信号。
There must be some physical phenomena observed during the preparation process of tremendous energy before the earthquake outbreaks. Therefore, earthquake can be predicted. But the earthquake preparation process generally takes a long time. It is really a complicated process with a lot of factors involved. Short-term and impending earthquake prediction is a difficult problem with attracts the worldwide scholars exploring for centries. In recent years, some scholars claim that monitoring electromagnetic earthquake precursor is likely to be breakthrough in the field of impending earthquake prediction. Especially, the Schumann resonance abnormal before large earthquakes discovered by Japanese scholars provides a new idea of seismic monitoring. However, Japanese ground-based Schumann Resonance observatories are seriously impacted by the man-made noise which makes it difficult to locat the“abnormal source”. It is assumed that Schumann Resonance in the earth-ionosphere cavity must disturb the lower ionosphere. Under this assumption a new Schumann Resonance earthquake precursor monitoring method based on ionospheric nonlinearity is researched in this thesis. High frequency electromagnetic waves along with abnormal Schumann Resonance under their nonlinear modulation at the bottom of ionosphere is demodulated on ground to do earthquake precursor monitoring. A new possible impending earthquake prediction method is found. The main work of this thesis is summarized as follows:
     (1) A new Schumann Resonance earthquake precursor monitoring method based on ionospheric nonlinearity by Schumann Resonance is proposed and researched.
     First, the general development of the worldwide earthquake electromagnetic monitoring is studied. The recent research on the relation between natural resonance and seisms is introduced. It appears that a new epoch of earthquake monitoring in frequency-domain starts. And the new Schumann Resonance earthquake precursor monitoring method based on ionospheric nonlinearity is proposed. This method overcomes the difficulty that earthquake abnormal and other interferences can not distinguished in time-domain. The ELF artificial interferences can be reduced. It is a new large-scale seismic monitoring method which can reveal the multi-layers coupling mechanism caused by seism and make it possible to locate abnormal source.
     (2) Multi-interaction ionospheric cross modulation theory is researched Multi-interaction ionospheric cross modulation theory is researched on the basis of that of Gurevich. In that theory, modulation depth variation due to the electromagnetic wawe phase changes in the multi-interaction condition is not considered. In this thesis, it is analyzed in both the isotropic and anisotropic plasma conditions. The result shows that the modulation depth in the isotropic condition is consistent with that in anisotropic plasma. The conclusion lays the foundation for the nonlinearity interaction of high frequency waves with Schumann Resonance in the lower ionosphere.
     (3) Multi-interaction HF-SR nonlinearity theory is researched and a new Schumann Resonance anomaly monitoring method on the ionosphere nonlinearity is proposed.
     Yampolski gave the HF-SR (high frequency-Schumann Resonance) theory taking account the atmosphere electric field. On the basis of this, HF-SR multi-interaction theory is discussed. The distribution of Schumann Resonance electric field in the earth-ionosphere cavity is researched. Combining the research of ionospheric cross modulation, the nonlinearity interaction of HF-SR in the lower ionosphere is researched. The interaction of round-the-world signal and Schuamnn Resonance is calculated combining the experiment carried out by Ukraine national academy of science. The result shows that similar modulation depth can be obtained by receiving round-the-world signal and the direct reflection signal from ionosphere. Thus, the short wave time service signal called BPM is chosen to construct a observatory in the eastern coastal area of China.
     (4) The simple design of Schumann Resonance observation on ionosphere nonlinearity is put forward and the system is developed.
     The simple design plan of Schumann Resonance observation on ionosphere nonlinearity is put forward on the basis of theoretical analysis. High frequency electromagnetic wave propagation engineering calculation and high frequency atmospheric radio noise, man-made noise and receiver noise inside is researched. The design requirement of receiving antenna of the system is made. According to the design requirements, shortwave crossed dipole antenna and the zero-frequency shortwave receiver are designed. The observation system development is completed.
     (5) Data of lower ionosphere Schumann Resonance for a long-term are analyzed, and the corresponding methods and results are studied.
     A long period of monitoring experiment was operated after the observation system completion. Schumann Resonance was successfully obtained from high frequency signal. The differential filtering method, subsection normalization method and curve-fitting method are put forward to abstract Schumann Rresonance. The observation results are compared with international ones. Two earthquake cases, which happened near BPM propagation paths in observation period, are analyzed. Possible Schumann Resonance anomaly related to the Ms 4.7 earthquake in Zhoukou, Henan province is obtained, according to the Schumann Resonance anomaly phenomena observed by Japanese scholars, Hayakawa and Ohta.
引文
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