高原湖泊流域可持续发展理论及评价模型研究
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摘要
水问题日益严峻,已逐步发展成为水资源、水环境、水生态、水灾害四大问题并存的多重危机和挑战,并且各类问题的规模已从局部或部分河段扩展为流域性、区域性甚至全球性影响。高原淡水湖泊生态价值显著,对区域经济、社会发展起着重要支撑作用,但从上世纪90年代以来,湖泊污染和生态退化日益突出,使流域社会经济发展面临着严峻的挑战,影响着流域的可持续发展。因此治理与保护湖泊、促进高原湖泊流域可持续发展已成为社会各界极为关注的重大问题。
基于以往对流域可持续发展理论及其评价研究不足的现状,结合高原湖泊流域社会经济发展与生态保护的二维困境实际,进行高原湖泊流域可持续发展理论及其评价研究具有重要的理论意义和现实价值。
高原湖泊流域作为一个以水资源为核心、具有层级结构的人地复合系统,其可持续发展是以水为主体,以流域为研究空间,以流域中人和自然构成的复合系统为研究对象,研究人与自然的关系及协调发展,同时还应充分考虑人与人之间的公平准则,从更高层次上考虑人类的生存和发展。而其内涵主要表现在：以水资源可持续利用为前提,突出协调发展,强调公平原则。
本文运用经济学、管理学、生态学等相关理论,在分析高原湖泊流域可持续发展影响因素基础上,提出了高原湖泊流域可持续发展的平衡机理。流域可持续发展,是经济子系统(效率)、社会子系统(公平)和生态子系统(可持续性)三者之间、各子系统内部要素之间以及代际之间的平衡过程,是一个由低层次平衡到高层次平衡的非均衡发展过程。这决定了流域可持续发展过程只能是波浪式或螺旋式上升。为促使流域可持续发展,有必要采取措施,提高生态供给,降低生态需求,从根本上调控导致流域生态经济问题可能出现的障碍。
可持续发展评价是可持续发展从理论阶段进入到可操作性阶段的前提。明确评价指标和标准,有利于对流域发展现状进行评价、对其发展趋势进行预测,并有针对性地采取措施,利于流域可持续发展的推进和实施。按照高原湖泊流域可持续发展的本质内涵,构建高原湖泊流域基于水资源持续利用的可持续发展评价模型,采用综合指标体系法,从可持续度、协调发展度和公平度三个方面衡量高原湖泊流域可持续发展水平,“可持续度”反映流域生态子系统对经济子系统、社会子系统的支撑程度,评价区域在发展进程中的长期合理性；“协调发展度”反映流域经济、社会、生态子系统的发展水平以及三者之间的协调程度,既可度量流域复合系统或子系统的发展水平,也反映流域复合系统或子系统之间关系配合的和谐程度；“公平度”则是判断流域在使用资源及社会经济发展过程中的公正、公平及满足需求的程度,表征流域的“共同富裕”程度及其对贫富差异和城乡差异的克服程度。可持续度、协调发展度、公平度三方面共同作用,决定着一个高原湖泊流域的可持续发展程度。
通过对抚仙湖流域1995-2007年的可持续发展水平进行实证研究,研究结果表明：抚仙湖流域生态安全总体上处于健康状态,经济、社会和生态三者之间呈现优良协调发展,公平程度不断上升。但自2001年后,流域总体协调发展呈下降趋势,特别是生态保护工作的滞后,影响着流域系统总体的协调发展水平；从2006年开始,水资源承载能力处于超负荷状况；公平程度尚处于较低层次,特别是近几年来公正程度和平等程度的持续下降,直接影响着流域的可持续发展。水资源的缺乏、水质的恶化将成为制约抚仙湖流域可持续发展的重要因素。
抚仙湖流域研究期间的可持续发展水平呈“弱持续发展”状况,研究结论与现实和类似研究结果相同。而导致抚仙湖流域“弱持续发展”状况的内在原因,是由于“市场失灵”、“政府失灵”、“结构失灵”三者交织在一起共同作用,最终导致了“机制失灵”。为提高抚仙湖流域的可持续发展能力,应抑制或消除“机制失灵”的根源,通过相应的环境经济手段来影响经济主体的成本-收益,引导其选择对生态环境有利的行为和决策。而高原湖泊流域可持续发展整体发展模式的提出,对于指导流域可持续发展具有现实价值。最后,并结合抚仙湖实际,有针对性的提出对策。
The water problem grows more and more serious and it has become a multiple crisis and challenge of the coexistence of the four:the water resources, water environment, water ecology and water related disasters. And the scale of the problems already expanded from a local or parts of river reaches to its whole, impacting on a region and even on the whole globe. There is high ecological value of plateau freshwater lakes, so these lakes play an important supporting role in regional economic and social development; but the lake pollution and the ecological degradation have become increasingly prominent since 1990s. Consequently, the lake basins are facing a serious challenge in the sustainable development; therefore, protecting the plateau lakes and promoting sustainable development capacity of the plateau freshwater lakes basins has become an important issue, concerned by various circles of the society.
On the account of the status quo of insufficient studies of the theories and their evaluations on the sustainable development of the lakeplateau basins, and in combination of the reality of the two-dimensional difficult situation of the social and economic development of the plateau lakes as well as their ecological protection, there are of high theoretical significance and practical value on theoretical research and their evaluation on the sustainable development of the plateau lake basins.
The plateau lake basins with water as the core resources are of a composite system of the human and the land with hierarchy. And in their sustainable development, the water is the main body, the study scope is the whole basin and the research object is the composite system of the human and the nature in the whole basin; while the relationship and the proportionate development of the human and the nature would be studied, and the fair criterion between people should be fully considered. So the development of the human is to be considered on an even higher level. And the essence of sustainable development in plateau lake basins is mainly presented as the following:the sustainable development of the water resources as the premise, with prominence on coordinated development, and stressing on a fair principle.
In this dissertation, Economics, Management, Ecology and other related theories are applied, a balancing mechanism of the sustainable development of the plateau lake basins is put forward based on an analysis of the factors of the sustainable development of the plateau lake basins. The sustainable development of the plateau lake basins is an equilibrium process among the three:the economic subsystem (Efficiency), the social subsystem (Fairness) and the ecological subsystem (sustainability), and an equilibrium process among their respective subsystem internals, and among intergenerations. It is a non-equilibrium development from a low-level equilibrium to a higher one, which determines the sustainable development process of the lake basins can only be a wavy or spiraling rise. For the sustainable development of the lake basins, it is necessary to take measures to improve the ecological supply, reduce the ecological demand, and to regulate and smooth the obstacles which may arise from the ecological and economic problems.
The evaluation for a sustainable development is the premise in the process from its theoretical phase into the operational one. Constructing the evaluation indicators and criteria is helpful to evaluate the current development situation of lake basins, to predict the trend of their development and to take targeted measures, which will be in favor of the sustainable development of plateau lake basins. According to the essence of the sustainable development of plateau lake basins, an evaluation model of basin complex system based on the use of the water resources is proposed from the perspective of lake basins. By the using of integrated indicator system, the level of sustainable development of the plateau lake basins is measured from three aspects of sustainable degree, coordinated development degree and fair degree.
The "sustainable degree" reflects the support level of the ecological subsystem to the economical subsystem and social subsystem, which will evaluate the long-term rationality of the development process. The" Coordinated development degree" reflects the development levels of the economic, social and ecological subsystems and the level of coordination among the three, which can measure the development levels of the complex system or the subsystems, and also reflects the harmony of the lake basin complex system. The "Fair degree" is to judge the impartial, fairness and the extent to meet the demand in the use of resources and in the process of social economic development of the lake area, which reflects the "common prosperity" level and the degree to overcome the differences between the rich and the poor, between the urban and the rural in the lake basins. The common role of the three:sustainable degree, coordinated development degree and fair degree, determines the sustainable development level of the complex system of the lake basin.
By the empirical research on Fuxian Lake basin from 1995 to 2007, the conclusion showed that the ecological system was in a healthy condition, an excellent coordination was shown in the economic, social and ecological aspects, and the fair level continuously rose in Fuxian Lake basin. But the overall coordination was in a downward trend after 2001, especially as a result of the lagging of the ecological protection, the overall coordinated of the lake basin was affected. The water carrying capacity remained in an overload condition, starting from 2006.The Fair degree is still in a comparably lower level. Especially in recent years, the degrees of fairness and equality have declined, which has a direct impact on the lake basin's sustainable development. Water shortage and water deterioration will become the key factors to restrict the development of Fuxian Lake basin.
The conclusion that fuxian lake basin is in a "weak sustainability" situation is identical with the same researches and with the reality of Fuxian Lake basin. The underlying cause of the situation of a "weak sustainable development" was the outcome of an interaction of the three:"market failure"," government failure" and "structural failure", which ultimately lead to the "mechanism failure".
In order to enhance the sustainable development capacity of Fuxian Lake basin, the causes of the "mechanism failure" should be controlled or eliminated. The appropriate environmental economic measures should be used to influence the cost-benefit of economic entities so as to guide them to choose the behaviors and decision-makings favorable to the ecological environment. The overall development models of the sustainable development of the plateau lake basin are advanced which will guide the sustainable development of the lake basins. Finally, in combination of the actual situation, some measures are put forward.
基于以往对流域可持续发展理论及其评价研究不足的现状,结合高原湖泊流域社会经济发展与生态保护的二维困境实际,进行高原湖泊流域可持续发展理论及其评价研究具有重要的理论意义和现实价值。
高原湖泊流域作为一个以水资源为核心、具有层级结构的人地复合系统,其可持续发展是以水为主体,以流域为研究空间,以流域中人和自然构成的复合系统为研究对象,研究人与自然的关系及协调发展,同时还应充分考虑人与人之间的公平准则,从更高层次上考虑人类的生存和发展。而其内涵主要表现在：以水资源可持续利用为前提,突出协调发展,强调公平原则。
本文运用经济学、管理学、生态学等相关理论,在分析高原湖泊流域可持续发展影响因素基础上,提出了高原湖泊流域可持续发展的平衡机理。流域可持续发展,是经济子系统(效率)、社会子系统(公平)和生态子系统(可持续性)三者之间、各子系统内部要素之间以及代际之间的平衡过程,是一个由低层次平衡到高层次平衡的非均衡发展过程。这决定了流域可持续发展过程只能是波浪式或螺旋式上升。为促使流域可持续发展,有必要采取措施,提高生态供给,降低生态需求,从根本上调控导致流域生态经济问题可能出现的障碍。
可持续发展评价是可持续发展从理论阶段进入到可操作性阶段的前提。明确评价指标和标准,有利于对流域发展现状进行评价、对其发展趋势进行预测,并有针对性地采取措施,利于流域可持续发展的推进和实施。按照高原湖泊流域可持续发展的本质内涵,构建高原湖泊流域基于水资源持续利用的可持续发展评价模型,采用综合指标体系法,从可持续度、协调发展度和公平度三个方面衡量高原湖泊流域可持续发展水平,“可持续度”反映流域生态子系统对经济子系统、社会子系统的支撑程度,评价区域在发展进程中的长期合理性；“协调发展度”反映流域经济、社会、生态子系统的发展水平以及三者之间的协调程度,既可度量流域复合系统或子系统的发展水平,也反映流域复合系统或子系统之间关系配合的和谐程度；“公平度”则是判断流域在使用资源及社会经济发展过程中的公正、公平及满足需求的程度,表征流域的“共同富裕”程度及其对贫富差异和城乡差异的克服程度。可持续度、协调发展度、公平度三方面共同作用,决定着一个高原湖泊流域的可持续发展程度。
通过对抚仙湖流域1995-2007年的可持续发展水平进行实证研究,研究结果表明：抚仙湖流域生态安全总体上处于健康状态,经济、社会和生态三者之间呈现优良协调发展,公平程度不断上升。但自2001年后,流域总体协调发展呈下降趋势,特别是生态保护工作的滞后,影响着流域系统总体的协调发展水平；从2006年开始,水资源承载能力处于超负荷状况；公平程度尚处于较低层次,特别是近几年来公正程度和平等程度的持续下降,直接影响着流域的可持续发展。水资源的缺乏、水质的恶化将成为制约抚仙湖流域可持续发展的重要因素。
抚仙湖流域研究期间的可持续发展水平呈“弱持续发展”状况,研究结论与现实和类似研究结果相同。而导致抚仙湖流域“弱持续发展”状况的内在原因,是由于“市场失灵”、“政府失灵”、“结构失灵”三者交织在一起共同作用,最终导致了“机制失灵”。为提高抚仙湖流域的可持续发展能力,应抑制或消除“机制失灵”的根源,通过相应的环境经济手段来影响经济主体的成本-收益,引导其选择对生态环境有利的行为和决策。而高原湖泊流域可持续发展整体发展模式的提出,对于指导流域可持续发展具有现实价值。最后,并结合抚仙湖实际,有针对性的提出对策。
The water problem grows more and more serious and it has become a multiple crisis and challenge of the coexistence of the four:the water resources, water environment, water ecology and water related disasters. And the scale of the problems already expanded from a local or parts of river reaches to its whole, impacting on a region and even on the whole globe. There is high ecological value of plateau freshwater lakes, so these lakes play an important supporting role in regional economic and social development; but the lake pollution and the ecological degradation have become increasingly prominent since 1990s. Consequently, the lake basins are facing a serious challenge in the sustainable development; therefore, protecting the plateau lakes and promoting sustainable development capacity of the plateau freshwater lakes basins has become an important issue, concerned by various circles of the society.
On the account of the status quo of insufficient studies of the theories and their evaluations on the sustainable development of the lakeplateau basins, and in combination of the reality of the two-dimensional difficult situation of the social and economic development of the plateau lakes as well as their ecological protection, there are of high theoretical significance and practical value on theoretical research and their evaluation on the sustainable development of the plateau lake basins.
The plateau lake basins with water as the core resources are of a composite system of the human and the land with hierarchy. And in their sustainable development, the water is the main body, the study scope is the whole basin and the research object is the composite system of the human and the nature in the whole basin; while the relationship and the proportionate development of the human and the nature would be studied, and the fair criterion between people should be fully considered. So the development of the human is to be considered on an even higher level. And the essence of sustainable development in plateau lake basins is mainly presented as the following:the sustainable development of the water resources as the premise, with prominence on coordinated development, and stressing on a fair principle.
In this dissertation, Economics, Management, Ecology and other related theories are applied, a balancing mechanism of the sustainable development of the plateau lake basins is put forward based on an analysis of the factors of the sustainable development of the plateau lake basins. The sustainable development of the plateau lake basins is an equilibrium process among the three:the economic subsystem (Efficiency), the social subsystem (Fairness) and the ecological subsystem (sustainability), and an equilibrium process among their respective subsystem internals, and among intergenerations. It is a non-equilibrium development from a low-level equilibrium to a higher one, which determines the sustainable development process of the lake basins can only be a wavy or spiraling rise. For the sustainable development of the lake basins, it is necessary to take measures to improve the ecological supply, reduce the ecological demand, and to regulate and smooth the obstacles which may arise from the ecological and economic problems.
The evaluation for a sustainable development is the premise in the process from its theoretical phase into the operational one. Constructing the evaluation indicators and criteria is helpful to evaluate the current development situation of lake basins, to predict the trend of their development and to take targeted measures, which will be in favor of the sustainable development of plateau lake basins. According to the essence of the sustainable development of plateau lake basins, an evaluation model of basin complex system based on the use of the water resources is proposed from the perspective of lake basins. By the using of integrated indicator system, the level of sustainable development of the plateau lake basins is measured from three aspects of sustainable degree, coordinated development degree and fair degree.
The "sustainable degree" reflects the support level of the ecological subsystem to the economical subsystem and social subsystem, which will evaluate the long-term rationality of the development process. The" Coordinated development degree" reflects the development levels of the economic, social and ecological subsystems and the level of coordination among the three, which can measure the development levels of the complex system or the subsystems, and also reflects the harmony of the lake basin complex system. The "Fair degree" is to judge the impartial, fairness and the extent to meet the demand in the use of resources and in the process of social economic development of the lake area, which reflects the "common prosperity" level and the degree to overcome the differences between the rich and the poor, between the urban and the rural in the lake basins. The common role of the three:sustainable degree, coordinated development degree and fair degree, determines the sustainable development level of the complex system of the lake basin.
By the empirical research on Fuxian Lake basin from 1995 to 2007, the conclusion showed that the ecological system was in a healthy condition, an excellent coordination was shown in the economic, social and ecological aspects, and the fair level continuously rose in Fuxian Lake basin. But the overall coordination was in a downward trend after 2001, especially as a result of the lagging of the ecological protection, the overall coordinated of the lake basin was affected. The water carrying capacity remained in an overload condition, starting from 2006.The Fair degree is still in a comparably lower level. Especially in recent years, the degrees of fairness and equality have declined, which has a direct impact on the lake basin's sustainable development. Water shortage and water deterioration will become the key factors to restrict the development of Fuxian Lake basin.
The conclusion that fuxian lake basin is in a "weak sustainability" situation is identical with the same researches and with the reality of Fuxian Lake basin. The underlying cause of the situation of a "weak sustainable development" was the outcome of an interaction of the three:"market failure"," government failure" and "structural failure", which ultimately lead to the "mechanism failure".
In order to enhance the sustainable development capacity of Fuxian Lake basin, the causes of the "mechanism failure" should be controlled or eliminated. The appropriate environmental economic measures should be used to influence the cost-benefit of economic entities so as to guide them to choose the behaviors and decision-makings favorable to the ecological environment. The overall development models of the sustainable development of the plateau lake basin are advanced which will guide the sustainable development of the lake basins. Finally, in combination of the actual situation, some measures are put forward.
引文
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