财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向成因研究
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摘要
财务分析师,通常供职于券商、基金、证券咨询机构,他们搜集上市公司的各种数据、信息,运用专业知识进行分析和研究,然后向投资者发布盈余预测和投资建议。在财务分析师所提供的众多信息中,盈余预测信息是向客户提供服务的主要内容之一,是财务分析师向市场传递信息的重要途径。财务分析师盈余预测中普遍存在的乐观倾向会直接影响投资者的价值判断,进而对资本市场资源配置效率产生负面影响。降低财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向的前提是明确乐观倾向的成因。鉴于此,本文从财务分析师的外部制度环境和个人行为两个维度出发,探讨利益冲突和认知偏差对财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向的影响与作用机理,以期通过本文的研究建立财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向成因解释框架,为降低乐观倾向提供理论基础和经验证据。
从我国理论界和实务界的实际情形分析,探寻我国财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向的成因既具有理论意义,又具有实际价值。在理论上,综观盈余预测乐观倾向成因的相关研究,国外的学者忽略了乐观倾向是多种因素共同作用的结果,没有对利益冲突和认知偏差对财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向的综合影响进行深入探讨。而国内研究则缺少从财务分析师盈余预测倾向性的角度对其背后的成因进行系统剖析,从而没有形成完善的理论体系。本文通过理清财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向的作用机理,构建理论框架将利益冲突和认知偏差对财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向的影响联系起来,并通过实证检验的方式进行了验证,在一定程度上深化了乐观倾向成因的研究,对于推动财务分析师盈余预测研究向前发展,完善我国财务分析师盈余预测理论体系具有重要意义。
在实践中,系统研究乐观倾向成因问题对于财务分析师、投资者、以及相关政策制定者都具有一定的参考价值和实用意义。首先,对盈余预测的提供者——财务分析师而言,目前,我国财务分析师盈余预测准确度与国际水平还有一定差距,对于乐观倾向成因的探究有助于财务分析师据此指导分析行为,降低盈余预测乐观倾向,以提高预测准确度。其次,对盈余预测的使用者——投资者而言,有利于投资者更为科学地审视财务分析师所提供的盈余预测,并在使用时进行适当调整,有助于其更好地做出投资决策。最后,对旨在提高资本市场效率的政策制定者而言,有助于有关部门更好地发挥监管职能,加强财务分析师队伍建设,保护投资者,从而提高资本市场资源配置效率。
本文以中国资本市场为研究背景,以财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向成因为研究对象,研究目标是从理论上构建乐观倾向成因解释框架,并以我国上市公司为样本通过实证研究的方法取得相应的经验证据。具体来说,本文希望逐步实现三个研究目标：目标一,构建财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向成因解释框架。目标二,为财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向成因解释框架提供经验证据。目标三,在明晰成因的基础上,为如何降低财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向提出建议。
为达成本文的研究目标,笔者按照四个递进的层次梳理研究思路,第一层次是研究基础,对相关文献进行了回顾和梳理,寻找相关理论渊源。第二层次是理论分析,界定相关概念,分析乐观倾向的作用机理,具体构建财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向成因的解释框架。第三层次是实证检验,为财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向成因的解释框架提供相应的经验证据。第四层次是结论与建议。
基于以上研究思路,本文的研究内容共分为八个部分,各部分的基本内容如下：
第一部分为绪论。在这一部分中,主要阐述本文研究的一些基本问题,包括本文的选题背景和研究价值,研究主题和目标,研究思路和结构安排,以及技术路线和研究过程中使用的研究方法。
第二部分为文献回顾。本部分首先回顾了国内外财务分析师盈余预测相关研究,总结和归纳目前的研究现状,明确本文的研究背景；之后着重对国内外财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向的经验证据、经济后果、以及成因研究进行了评述,在明晰研究现状的基础上,归纳国内外研究中存在的问题与局限性。
第三部分为本文的理论基础。任何一个问题都不是孤立存在的,因此,科学地研究财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向成因,需要追溯财务分析师盈余预测理论渊源。本部分阐述了相关的理论基础,主要包括有效资本市场理论、信息不对称理论和行为财务理论。
第四部分为财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向成因的理论研究。本部分采用规范研究的方法,立足我国财务分析师制度,运用相关理论构建财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向成因解释框架。财务分析师所面临的制度环境中存在利益冲突,这是导致财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向的根源,利益冲突表现在经济激励、管理层关系、机构投资者关系、财务分析师个人投资四方面；财务分析师自身存在的认知偏差是这种乐观倾向的催化剂,加剧了乐观倾向。并且分析了利益冲突和认知偏差所产生的原因,为降低乐观倾向指明了方向。
第五部分、第六部分、第七部分用实证检验的方法分别检验了利益冲突的两种表现形式(经济激励和管理层关系),以及认知偏差对我国财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向的影响。在理论研究的基础上,用实证研究的方法提供了相应的经验证据。经济激励和管理层关系的检验,其数据来源是文档,即上市公司现有的相关数据。对于认知偏差的检验则根据研究需要采用实验研究方法,设计出更符合本文研究目的的情境。
第八部分为研究结论与展望。首先,对以上理论研究和实证检验的研究结论和创新之处作以总结。其次,根据研究结论分别从完善证券公司信息隔离制度建设、加强上市公司信息披露公平、以及提高财务分析师自我纠偏能力三个方面为降低经济激励、管理层关系以及认知偏差对乐观倾向的影响提出对策建议。最后,总结本文研究中存在的局限,并展望后续研究方向。
关于财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向的成因问题,国外已取得了较为丰富的研究。本文在前人的相关研究基础上,通过理论分析与实验检验在以下三方面有所创新与贡献：第一,现有研究仅探讨单个因素或维度对财务分析师盈余预测影响,本文选择利益冲突和认知偏差两个维度,采用由外部到内部,并且逐步放宽假设的思路,融合了利益冲突和认知偏差对财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向的影响。第二,现有研究均以美国、英国等资本市场相对发达的国家为研究背景,本文是首次以中国财务分析师行业为背景研究盈余预测乐观倾向成因问题的文章。不仅丰富了我国财务分析师盈余预测的研究内容,也扩宽了不同制度背景下财务分析师盈余预测的研究领域。第三,现有文献大多认为,财务分析师对历史信息或新信息“反应不足”与“反应过度”是认知偏差的体现,本文对该观点提出质疑,并且通过理论分析和实验研究提出新观点,认为财务分析师盈余预测中的认知偏差包括启发式偏差,框定偏差和证实偏差,认知偏差对利益冲突之下形成的乐观倾向起到加剧作用。
Financial Analysts are usually served in the brokerages, funds, and securities advisory institutions. They collect a variety of data and information of listed companies, apply professional knowledge in analysis and research, and provide earnings forecasts and investment advice for investors. Earnings forecasts information is one of the main service content that analysts provide for clients, and is one of the important ways by which they deliver information to the market. The characteristics of earnings forecasts, such as accuracy, have a direct impact on investors'valuation, and also affect the efficiency of the allocation of resources in capital markets. So this dissertation focuses on analysts'earnings forecasts, takes optimism in earnings forecasts as the object, and tries to find the causes of optimism in order to provide new perspectives and ideas for improving the validity of the information in securities market.
It is of the theoretical significance and practical value to research on the causes of optimism in analysts'earnings forecasts in China. In theory, the foreign scholars, who are engaged in finding causes of optimism in analysts'earnings forecasts, always ignored the fact that the optimism is the result of a variety of factors. As a result, they didn't immerge further into the combined effects of conflicts of interest and cognitive bias. While Chinese scholars even didn't research on the causes of optimism in the perspective of analysts' earnings forecasts bias, therefore a complete research system is failed to be formed. In this dissertation, the mechanism of analysts'optimism is clarified, the theoretical framework is constructed to combine the impacts on optimism in analysts'earnings forecasts of conflict of interest and cognitive bias, and the framework is verified through empirical tests. The dissertation improves the research on causes of optimism in analysts'earnings forecasts to a certain extent, and is of great significance for researches on analysts'earnings forecasts.
In practice, researches on the causes of optimism in financial analysts'earnings forecasts is of reference value and practical significance for providers, users and policy-makers of financial analysts'earnings forecasts. Firstly, there is a certain distance between accuracy of analysts'earnings forecasts in China and the international level. The researches on causes of optimism could help analysts to guide their behavior and improve forecast accuracy accordingly. Secondly, the researches could help investors to judge forecast provided by analysts more scientificly, and make better investment decisions. Finally, the researches could help policy-makers to perform its monitoring functions better, strengthen the analyst industries, protect investors, and enhance capital market efficiency of resource allocation.
Taking China's capital market as research background, this dissertation takes the causes of optimism in financial analysts'earnings forecasts as the research objective, and engages to construct a theoretical framework to explain the causes of optimism and verify the framework by empirical research. Specifically, the author wants to gradually achieve three research goals in this dissertation:Goal 1, construct explain framework for causes of optimism in financial analysts'earnings forecasts. Goal 2, provide empirical evidence for explain framework. Goal 3,make policy recommendations for reducing the optimism.
Specially speaking, the research design of this dissertation spreads in turn according to the four progressive levels. The first level is the research basement. In this level, relevant literature is reviewed, sources of relevant theories are found, and the research background is made clearly. The second level is the theoretical analysis.In this level, the basic theory of research on causes of optimism in financial analysts'earnings forecasts is discussed, the mechanism of optimism is analyzed, the explain framework of causes of optimism is constructed. The third level is the empirical testing. The empirical evidence of framework of causes of optimism is provided. The fourth level is the conclusions and recommendations.
Based on the above-mentioned research logic, this dissertation consists of eight parts.
The first part is the introduction. In this part, some basic issues in the dissertation are mainly discussed, including the research background, the theoretical value and practical application value of this dissertation, the basic ideas and method, and main research contents.
The second part is the literature summary. The previous literatures about analysts' earnings forecasts are summaried in this part. The literature summary is focused on the literatures about the causes of optimism in analyst's earnings forecasts.The problems and limitations in previous literatures are summarized, and the useful inspiration in previous research is discussed. So we can obtain some clues for the research.
The third part is about the basic theory. No one question can exist in isolation, therefore, in order to research on causes of optimism in financial analysts'earnings forecasts scientificly, we should not only trace theories sources of analysts'earnings forecasts, but also recognize the practical background. In this part, the relevant theoretical basis is discussed firstly, including the efficient market theory, asymmetric information theory, and behavioral finance theory.
The fourth part is about the theoretical analysis of causes of optimism in analysts' earnings forecasts.In this part, the explain framework of cause of optimism in financial analysts'earnings forecasts in China is constructed in normative research paradigm. Financial analysts faced the conflict of interest in the institutional environment, which is the root of optimism. The main forms of conflict of interest are economic incentives and management relationships. Cognitive bias of financial analysts is worked like catalyst, which exacerbates the optimism. And the causes of conflict of interest and cognitive bias are analyzed, in order to indicate the direction of who to reduce the optimism.
The fifth part, the sixth part, and the seventh part are about empirical tests.The author tests the impact that economic incentives, management relationships and cognitive bias have on optimism in financial analysts'earnings forecasts with the empirical method. These three parts are the core of this dissertation, the corresponding empirical evidence is provided based on theoretical analysis. The data in the test for economic incentives and the management relationships is from document. While experimental research method is used in the test of cognitive bias.
The eighth part is about conclusions and expectations.First of all, sum up the above theoretical researches and empirical tests. Secondly, make policy recommendations for reduce the impact of economic incentives, management relationships and cognitive bias according to the conclusions, including improving the construction of the industry, the disclose fair of listed companies and analyst self-awareness. Finally, sum up the contributions and shortcomings of this dissertation and looks forward to the follow-up research.
The previous research on causes of optimism in financial analysts'earnings forecasts is very extensive. Innovations and contributions in this dissertation are as follows. Firstly, the previous researchers only discussed what influence a single factor or dimension had on optimism in financial analysts'earnings forecasts. The influence that conflict of interest and cognitive bias have on optimism in financial analysts'earnings forecasts is merged in this dissertation with the thinking of analyzing from the external to internal, and gradually relaxing the assumption. Secondly, the previous research was taken the United States, Britain and other developed countries as the background, while this dissertation is the first one researches the issue of optimism in financial analysts' earnings forecasts taken financial analysts in China as the background. The research not only enriches the research content of financial analysts'earnings forecasts in China, but also broadens the research on financial analysts'earnings forecasts under different contexts. Thirdly, most of the existing literatures argue that analysts'overreaction/underreaction to historical and new earnings information manifest the cognitive bias, while this point of view is called into question in this dissertation. We propose a new view that the cognitive bias in financial analysts' earnings forecasts includes heuristic bias, framing bias, and confirmation bias. The cognitive bias makes the optimism exacerbated.
从我国理论界和实务界的实际情形分析,探寻我国财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向的成因既具有理论意义,又具有实际价值。在理论上,综观盈余预测乐观倾向成因的相关研究,国外的学者忽略了乐观倾向是多种因素共同作用的结果,没有对利益冲突和认知偏差对财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向的综合影响进行深入探讨。而国内研究则缺少从财务分析师盈余预测倾向性的角度对其背后的成因进行系统剖析,从而没有形成完善的理论体系。本文通过理清财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向的作用机理,构建理论框架将利益冲突和认知偏差对财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向的影响联系起来,并通过实证检验的方式进行了验证,在一定程度上深化了乐观倾向成因的研究,对于推动财务分析师盈余预测研究向前发展,完善我国财务分析师盈余预测理论体系具有重要意义。
在实践中,系统研究乐观倾向成因问题对于财务分析师、投资者、以及相关政策制定者都具有一定的参考价值和实用意义。首先,对盈余预测的提供者——财务分析师而言,目前,我国财务分析师盈余预测准确度与国际水平还有一定差距,对于乐观倾向成因的探究有助于财务分析师据此指导分析行为,降低盈余预测乐观倾向,以提高预测准确度。其次,对盈余预测的使用者——投资者而言,有利于投资者更为科学地审视财务分析师所提供的盈余预测,并在使用时进行适当调整,有助于其更好地做出投资决策。最后,对旨在提高资本市场效率的政策制定者而言,有助于有关部门更好地发挥监管职能,加强财务分析师队伍建设,保护投资者,从而提高资本市场资源配置效率。
本文以中国资本市场为研究背景,以财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向成因为研究对象,研究目标是从理论上构建乐观倾向成因解释框架,并以我国上市公司为样本通过实证研究的方法取得相应的经验证据。具体来说,本文希望逐步实现三个研究目标：目标一,构建财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向成因解释框架。目标二,为财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向成因解释框架提供经验证据。目标三,在明晰成因的基础上,为如何降低财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向提出建议。
为达成本文的研究目标,笔者按照四个递进的层次梳理研究思路,第一层次是研究基础,对相关文献进行了回顾和梳理,寻找相关理论渊源。第二层次是理论分析,界定相关概念,分析乐观倾向的作用机理,具体构建财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向成因的解释框架。第三层次是实证检验,为财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向成因的解释框架提供相应的经验证据。第四层次是结论与建议。
基于以上研究思路,本文的研究内容共分为八个部分,各部分的基本内容如下：
第一部分为绪论。在这一部分中,主要阐述本文研究的一些基本问题,包括本文的选题背景和研究价值,研究主题和目标,研究思路和结构安排,以及技术路线和研究过程中使用的研究方法。
第二部分为文献回顾。本部分首先回顾了国内外财务分析师盈余预测相关研究,总结和归纳目前的研究现状,明确本文的研究背景；之后着重对国内外财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向的经验证据、经济后果、以及成因研究进行了评述,在明晰研究现状的基础上,归纳国内外研究中存在的问题与局限性。
第三部分为本文的理论基础。任何一个问题都不是孤立存在的,因此,科学地研究财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向成因,需要追溯财务分析师盈余预测理论渊源。本部分阐述了相关的理论基础,主要包括有效资本市场理论、信息不对称理论和行为财务理论。
第四部分为财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向成因的理论研究。本部分采用规范研究的方法,立足我国财务分析师制度,运用相关理论构建财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向成因解释框架。财务分析师所面临的制度环境中存在利益冲突,这是导致财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向的根源,利益冲突表现在经济激励、管理层关系、机构投资者关系、财务分析师个人投资四方面；财务分析师自身存在的认知偏差是这种乐观倾向的催化剂,加剧了乐观倾向。并且分析了利益冲突和认知偏差所产生的原因,为降低乐观倾向指明了方向。
第五部分、第六部分、第七部分用实证检验的方法分别检验了利益冲突的两种表现形式(经济激励和管理层关系),以及认知偏差对我国财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向的影响。在理论研究的基础上,用实证研究的方法提供了相应的经验证据。经济激励和管理层关系的检验,其数据来源是文档,即上市公司现有的相关数据。对于认知偏差的检验则根据研究需要采用实验研究方法,设计出更符合本文研究目的的情境。
第八部分为研究结论与展望。首先,对以上理论研究和实证检验的研究结论和创新之处作以总结。其次,根据研究结论分别从完善证券公司信息隔离制度建设、加强上市公司信息披露公平、以及提高财务分析师自我纠偏能力三个方面为降低经济激励、管理层关系以及认知偏差对乐观倾向的影响提出对策建议。最后,总结本文研究中存在的局限,并展望后续研究方向。
关于财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向的成因问题,国外已取得了较为丰富的研究。本文在前人的相关研究基础上,通过理论分析与实验检验在以下三方面有所创新与贡献：第一,现有研究仅探讨单个因素或维度对财务分析师盈余预测影响,本文选择利益冲突和认知偏差两个维度,采用由外部到内部,并且逐步放宽假设的思路,融合了利益冲突和认知偏差对财务分析师盈余预测乐观倾向的影响。第二,现有研究均以美国、英国等资本市场相对发达的国家为研究背景,本文是首次以中国财务分析师行业为背景研究盈余预测乐观倾向成因问题的文章。不仅丰富了我国财务分析师盈余预测的研究内容,也扩宽了不同制度背景下财务分析师盈余预测的研究领域。第三,现有文献大多认为,财务分析师对历史信息或新信息“反应不足”与“反应过度”是认知偏差的体现,本文对该观点提出质疑,并且通过理论分析和实验研究提出新观点,认为财务分析师盈余预测中的认知偏差包括启发式偏差,框定偏差和证实偏差,认知偏差对利益冲突之下形成的乐观倾向起到加剧作用。
Financial Analysts are usually served in the brokerages, funds, and securities advisory institutions. They collect a variety of data and information of listed companies, apply professional knowledge in analysis and research, and provide earnings forecasts and investment advice for investors. Earnings forecasts information is one of the main service content that analysts provide for clients, and is one of the important ways by which they deliver information to the market. The characteristics of earnings forecasts, such as accuracy, have a direct impact on investors'valuation, and also affect the efficiency of the allocation of resources in capital markets. So this dissertation focuses on analysts'earnings forecasts, takes optimism in earnings forecasts as the object, and tries to find the causes of optimism in order to provide new perspectives and ideas for improving the validity of the information in securities market.
It is of the theoretical significance and practical value to research on the causes of optimism in analysts'earnings forecasts in China. In theory, the foreign scholars, who are engaged in finding causes of optimism in analysts'earnings forecasts, always ignored the fact that the optimism is the result of a variety of factors. As a result, they didn't immerge further into the combined effects of conflicts of interest and cognitive bias. While Chinese scholars even didn't research on the causes of optimism in the perspective of analysts' earnings forecasts bias, therefore a complete research system is failed to be formed. In this dissertation, the mechanism of analysts'optimism is clarified, the theoretical framework is constructed to combine the impacts on optimism in analysts'earnings forecasts of conflict of interest and cognitive bias, and the framework is verified through empirical tests. The dissertation improves the research on causes of optimism in analysts'earnings forecasts to a certain extent, and is of great significance for researches on analysts'earnings forecasts.
In practice, researches on the causes of optimism in financial analysts'earnings forecasts is of reference value and practical significance for providers, users and policy-makers of financial analysts'earnings forecasts. Firstly, there is a certain distance between accuracy of analysts'earnings forecasts in China and the international level. The researches on causes of optimism could help analysts to guide their behavior and improve forecast accuracy accordingly. Secondly, the researches could help investors to judge forecast provided by analysts more scientificly, and make better investment decisions. Finally, the researches could help policy-makers to perform its monitoring functions better, strengthen the analyst industries, protect investors, and enhance capital market efficiency of resource allocation.
Taking China's capital market as research background, this dissertation takes the causes of optimism in financial analysts'earnings forecasts as the research objective, and engages to construct a theoretical framework to explain the causes of optimism and verify the framework by empirical research. Specifically, the author wants to gradually achieve three research goals in this dissertation:Goal 1, construct explain framework for causes of optimism in financial analysts'earnings forecasts. Goal 2, provide empirical evidence for explain framework. Goal 3,make policy recommendations for reducing the optimism.
Specially speaking, the research design of this dissertation spreads in turn according to the four progressive levels. The first level is the research basement. In this level, relevant literature is reviewed, sources of relevant theories are found, and the research background is made clearly. The second level is the theoretical analysis.In this level, the basic theory of research on causes of optimism in financial analysts'earnings forecasts is discussed, the mechanism of optimism is analyzed, the explain framework of causes of optimism is constructed. The third level is the empirical testing. The empirical evidence of framework of causes of optimism is provided. The fourth level is the conclusions and recommendations.
Based on the above-mentioned research logic, this dissertation consists of eight parts.
The first part is the introduction. In this part, some basic issues in the dissertation are mainly discussed, including the research background, the theoretical value and practical application value of this dissertation, the basic ideas and method, and main research contents.
The second part is the literature summary. The previous literatures about analysts' earnings forecasts are summaried in this part. The literature summary is focused on the literatures about the causes of optimism in analyst's earnings forecasts.The problems and limitations in previous literatures are summarized, and the useful inspiration in previous research is discussed. So we can obtain some clues for the research.
The third part is about the basic theory. No one question can exist in isolation, therefore, in order to research on causes of optimism in financial analysts'earnings forecasts scientificly, we should not only trace theories sources of analysts'earnings forecasts, but also recognize the practical background. In this part, the relevant theoretical basis is discussed firstly, including the efficient market theory, asymmetric information theory, and behavioral finance theory.
The fourth part is about the theoretical analysis of causes of optimism in analysts' earnings forecasts.In this part, the explain framework of cause of optimism in financial analysts'earnings forecasts in China is constructed in normative research paradigm. Financial analysts faced the conflict of interest in the institutional environment, which is the root of optimism. The main forms of conflict of interest are economic incentives and management relationships. Cognitive bias of financial analysts is worked like catalyst, which exacerbates the optimism. And the causes of conflict of interest and cognitive bias are analyzed, in order to indicate the direction of who to reduce the optimism.
The fifth part, the sixth part, and the seventh part are about empirical tests.The author tests the impact that economic incentives, management relationships and cognitive bias have on optimism in financial analysts'earnings forecasts with the empirical method. These three parts are the core of this dissertation, the corresponding empirical evidence is provided based on theoretical analysis. The data in the test for economic incentives and the management relationships is from document. While experimental research method is used in the test of cognitive bias.
The eighth part is about conclusions and expectations.First of all, sum up the above theoretical researches and empirical tests. Secondly, make policy recommendations for reduce the impact of economic incentives, management relationships and cognitive bias according to the conclusions, including improving the construction of the industry, the disclose fair of listed companies and analyst self-awareness. Finally, sum up the contributions and shortcomings of this dissertation and looks forward to the follow-up research.
The previous research on causes of optimism in financial analysts'earnings forecasts is very extensive. Innovations and contributions in this dissertation are as follows. Firstly, the previous researchers only discussed what influence a single factor or dimension had on optimism in financial analysts'earnings forecasts. The influence that conflict of interest and cognitive bias have on optimism in financial analysts'earnings forecasts is merged in this dissertation with the thinking of analyzing from the external to internal, and gradually relaxing the assumption. Secondly, the previous research was taken the United States, Britain and other developed countries as the background, while this dissertation is the first one researches the issue of optimism in financial analysts' earnings forecasts taken financial analysts in China as the background. The research not only enriches the research content of financial analysts'earnings forecasts in China, but also broadens the research on financial analysts'earnings forecasts under different contexts. Thirdly, most of the existing literatures argue that analysts'overreaction/underreaction to historical and new earnings information manifest the cognitive bias, while this point of view is called into question in this dissertation. We propose a new view that the cognitive bias in financial analysts' earnings forecasts includes heuristic bias, framing bias, and confirmation bias. The cognitive bias makes the optimism exacerbated.
引文
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①本部分主要参考资料为：程传海、王梅.金融市场的有效理论评述[J].开放导报,2005,(12)：78。
②本部分主要参考资料为：何玉、张天西.证券分析师与有效资本市场[J].上海金融,2004,(12)：32。
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①根据《新财富》对2004年-2006年分析师流动情况的调查,2004年,有90%以上的机构一年中分析师人员变动为2-3人；2006年,则有50%的机构有5位或以上分析师离职,离职分析师最多的机构甚至达到11人,占该机构分析师总数的20%。同时,2006年七成以上机构新招分析师人数为离职分析师人数一倍以上,最高达到六倍。
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