黄土高原吕二沟流域环境演变的生态水文响应
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摘要
环境变化的生态水文响应,以气候变化和由于人类活动引起的土地利用变化对生态水文过程影响集中表现出来。本研究通过对黄土高原吕二沟数据分析,预测未来40年内的气候和土地利用变化,在此基础上应用改进后的生态水文模型TOPOG对将来时刻的水文过程进行模拟,并分析其发生的成因,旨在为水土保持治理和土地利用改造建设提供技术支持。得出主要结论有：
(1)吕二沟流域多年平均降水量为533.65mm,年际间变化波动大,在整个研究阶段不发生突变,一直处于明显的减少的趋势,6-9月份降水占全年降水的85.62%。降水量在空间上表现出越靠近流域上游、海拔越高其降水量愈大,空间异质性越大；研究流域60年来最高、平均和最低气温突变出现在1997-1999年之间,以平均0.024℃/a、0.0279℃/a和0.0289℃/a的速度升高；吕二沟流域实际蒸散发没有明显的发生突变,一直处于减少的趋势,主要受到降水影响,潜在蒸散发逐年升高,是由降水和气温变化共同决定；在分析气候变化趋势基础上,对未来40年气候变化进行预测。
(2)在研究期间,黄土高原吕二沟流域土地利用方式发生了很大的改变,主要表现在草地和坡耕地面积减少,梯田和林地面积增大；在1986-1995年为土地利用整体规划期,类型和数量上的变化较大；1995-2001年为自我调整期,变化数量较小2001-2008年为稳定期,各种土地利用变化微弱；应用CA-Markov模型,借助IDRISI软件,在去除土地利用变化加速度的基础上,以土地利用变化速度为依据,对研究流域不同土地利用类型在数量上和空间上将来的变化进行模拟预测。
(3)吕二沟流域土壤水文特征与土壤物理特性关系紧密。不同土地利用类型土壤,其颗粒组成不同,孔隙度存在差异,土壤含水量垂直方向上变化幅度不大；不同土地利用类型对土壤饱和渗透率影响较大,饱和渗透率表现出刺槐林>草地>耕地和果园的规律,同时发现土壤饱和渗透率与含水量无关,与土壤容重和非毛管孔隙相关性较大；研究区内土壤抗蚀指数在较小的变化区间内,草地土壤抗蚀指数最大,坡耕地抗蚀指数最小,土地利用类型土壤抗蚀指数k均表现出侵蚀沟上游<中游<下游的变化；不同的土地利用方式土壤抗冲系数C值大小排序为：刺槐林>草地>梯田>果园>坡耕地,土壤的抗冲特性与土壤中根系密度关系较大,土壤抗冲性随着坡度增加而减小
(4)研究流域径流量和输沙量在年际间的变化表现出形同的趋势,泥沙对于径流的响应较为强烈；吕二沟流域径流和输沙量在基准期,非显著变化期和显著变化期变化程度不同,径流泥沙在非显著变化期和显著变化期中,土地利用贡献率降低,气候变化贡献率逐渐增高,治理措施在本流域减小径流损失和减弱泥沙流失具有重要作用。
(5)研究区湿度指数随着净降水量和透水率的增加而增加,在不同季节中,附加辐射权重的湿度表现出夏季>春、秋分>冬季的趋势；在地表覆盖越好,流域侵蚀危险等级越低,地表裸露率越大,流域侵蚀危险等级越高；在同种地表盖度情况下,坡度较缓的地带侵蚀灾害指数较大。吕二沟流域土壤侵蚀主要发生在坡面上,而沟道侵蚀较弱；域流域较大范围的崩塌是由于10-50mm/d降雨形成的,崩塌危险指数空间分布表现坡上值小于坡下值,总体上游小于下游,在沟道之中最大,在同等降水情况下,上游和坡上发生崩塌概率最大,沟道之中发生崩塌概率最小；改进后的模型使得径流过程的纳什效率系数从0.68提升为0.81,输沙过程纳什系数从0.72提升到0.85,模拟值更加符合实际观测值。
(6)在气候和土地利用预测的基础上,应用改进后的TOPOG模型,对环境演变下的对未来40年生态水文过程进行模拟分析,发现：未来40年内,吕二沟流域降水资源、径流输沙均逐渐减少,且表现出季节变化,蒸散发损耗水量在未来40年内占水资源比例逐渐增强,径流所占比例逐渐减弱；由于人类活动引起的土地利用变化对径流泥沙贡献率逐渐降低,而由于气候波动对径流泥沙影响越来越显著；气候变化对径流贡献率比对泥沙贡献率大,而土地利用变化对泥沙贡献率则大于对径流贡献率；一年之中,随着雨季来临,气候变化和土地利用变化与水文过程相关性增强,随着雨季结束而减弱,在不同的生态水文过程中,水文过程与气候相关系数均大于其与土地利用变化系数,在雨季表现更为明显。
The ecohydrology processes response to environmental change, is performance that the change of ecohydrology processes with the climate and land use changes. The Lvergou watershed has been taken as study area, through analyzing the climate, land use and soil datas, forecasting climate and land use change the next 40 years. The improved eco-hydrological model TOPOG was adopted to simulate the ecohydrology processes, and analyze the causes of its. The research provided the technical support for the department of soil and water conservation and land use. The main conclusions were as follows:
(1) The rainfall has large fluctuations between years, with average rainfall of 533.65mm. The sudden change did not occur throughout the study period, but has been in obvious decline. The rainfall in June-September accounted for 85.62% in years. For many years, the average annual precipitation on upper> middle> lower reaches of the property, besides increasing with altitude and the more the precipitation, the more spatial heterogeneity. In the past 50 years, the high, average and minimum temperatures increased at the speed of 0.024℃/a,0.0279℃/a and 0.0289℃/a, and the sudden change occurred at 1997-1999. The actual evapotranspiration has no significant of sudden change, and been in decline mainly affected by precipitation. The potential evapotranspiration increased, and decision of precipitation and temperature change. Climate in next 40 years has been predicted, based on analyzing of climate change.
(2) The land use/cover has great changes at Lvergou watershed in the Loess Plateau during the study period. The mainly changes is the area of grassland and sloping land were reduce, terraces and woodland area were increase. In 1986-1995 for the overall planning of land use, the type and area of land use violently changes; in 1995-2001 for the self-adjustment period, the number of small-range changes; in 2001-2008 was stable, a variety of land use change slightly. Appling CA-Markov model, using IDRISI software, removing the acceleration of land use change, based on the rate of land use change, the quantity and spatial of land use has been simulated in forecast at study watershed.
(3) The relationship between hydrologic and physical of soil in Lvergou watershed is closely. There are different particle composition and capillary, in different types of land use soil. But soil moisture changed slightly the vertical direction. The soil permeability coefficients of locust forest is biggest, the cultivated land and orchard is smallest. The soil permeability coefficient is well related to bulk density and non-capillary pore. The anti-erodibility (k) changes in a small bound. The largest, the least k appeared in grassland and slope farmland. The k precipitated on upstream grass> terrace> orchard> slope farmland. The C and plant roots are significantly relevant, and keep decreasing with the increase of slope.
(4) The precipitation and sediment changed in a same way between the annual, during 1982-2010 in Lvergou watershed. Sediment is response for runoff strongly. Runoff and sediment have changes in based period, non-significant change period and significant change period. During the non-significant change period and significant change period, the contribution rate of land use reduced, and the contribution rate of climate increased, control Measures is important to decline runoff and sediment.
(5) Wetness index(WI) varies as a consequence of these different data inputs. WI increased by uniform drainage flux value(q) increase; A comparison was made between a set of uniform transmissivity (T) and uniform rainfall (R) values, and found that TOPOG predicted the expected trend that soil moisture within the watershed increased with increasing uniform T and uniform R values. In different seasons, the value of radiation-weighted WI is summer>equinox> winter. Erosion hazard index of watershed (HW) is lower with the best land cover, and greater with high rate of surface exposed. In the same ground cover, soil erosion occurs mainly on the slope, and channel erosion is weak in the study area. The rainfall at the range of 10-50mm/d caused a wind range of area to landslide in Lvergou watershed. The landslide hazard index (Rcr) in upslope and upstream were lower. The probability of occurrence of landslide at groove was the smallest in the same case of rainfall. The improved model enhanced the Nash efficiency coefficient from 0.68 to 0.81 in runoff processes, and from 0.72 to 0.85 in sediment transport processes, the simulated values were more in line with the observed values.
(6) The improved TOPOG model was adopted to simulate and analysis the ecohydrology processes based on the climate and land use forecasted in next 40 years. The precipitation, runoff and sediment will gradually reduced, showed seasonal variation. The evapotranspiration gradually increased the proportion, the proportion of runoff gradually decreased of total water resources in the future. The contribution rate of land use change on runoff and sediment will gradually decrease, and the contribution rate of climate change will be more and more significant. The contribution rate of climate change on runoff will be larger than contribution of sediment, while the contribution rate of land use change on sediment will be larger than contribution of runoff. The correlation between climate change, land use changes and ecohydrology processes is going to enhance in the rainy seasons. The coefficient of hydrological processes and climate is greater than land use change, more, obviously in the rainy seasons.
(1)吕二沟流域多年平均降水量为533.65mm,年际间变化波动大,在整个研究阶段不发生突变,一直处于明显的减少的趋势,6-9月份降水占全年降水的85.62%。降水量在空间上表现出越靠近流域上游、海拔越高其降水量愈大,空间异质性越大；研究流域60年来最高、平均和最低气温突变出现在1997-1999年之间,以平均0.024℃/a、0.0279℃/a和0.0289℃/a的速度升高；吕二沟流域实际蒸散发没有明显的发生突变,一直处于减少的趋势,主要受到降水影响,潜在蒸散发逐年升高,是由降水和气温变化共同决定；在分析气候变化趋势基础上,对未来40年气候变化进行预测。
(2)在研究期间,黄土高原吕二沟流域土地利用方式发生了很大的改变,主要表现在草地和坡耕地面积减少,梯田和林地面积增大；在1986-1995年为土地利用整体规划期,类型和数量上的变化较大；1995-2001年为自我调整期,变化数量较小2001-2008年为稳定期,各种土地利用变化微弱；应用CA-Markov模型,借助IDRISI软件,在去除土地利用变化加速度的基础上,以土地利用变化速度为依据,对研究流域不同土地利用类型在数量上和空间上将来的变化进行模拟预测。
(3)吕二沟流域土壤水文特征与土壤物理特性关系紧密。不同土地利用类型土壤,其颗粒组成不同,孔隙度存在差异,土壤含水量垂直方向上变化幅度不大；不同土地利用类型对土壤饱和渗透率影响较大,饱和渗透率表现出刺槐林>草地>耕地和果园的规律,同时发现土壤饱和渗透率与含水量无关,与土壤容重和非毛管孔隙相关性较大；研究区内土壤抗蚀指数在较小的变化区间内,草地土壤抗蚀指数最大,坡耕地抗蚀指数最小,土地利用类型土壤抗蚀指数k均表现出侵蚀沟上游<中游<下游的变化；不同的土地利用方式土壤抗冲系数C值大小排序为：刺槐林>草地>梯田>果园>坡耕地,土壤的抗冲特性与土壤中根系密度关系较大,土壤抗冲性随着坡度增加而减小
(4)研究流域径流量和输沙量在年际间的变化表现出形同的趋势,泥沙对于径流的响应较为强烈；吕二沟流域径流和输沙量在基准期,非显著变化期和显著变化期变化程度不同,径流泥沙在非显著变化期和显著变化期中,土地利用贡献率降低,气候变化贡献率逐渐增高,治理措施在本流域减小径流损失和减弱泥沙流失具有重要作用。
(5)研究区湿度指数随着净降水量和透水率的增加而增加,在不同季节中,附加辐射权重的湿度表现出夏季>春、秋分>冬季的趋势；在地表覆盖越好,流域侵蚀危险等级越低,地表裸露率越大,流域侵蚀危险等级越高；在同种地表盖度情况下,坡度较缓的地带侵蚀灾害指数较大。吕二沟流域土壤侵蚀主要发生在坡面上,而沟道侵蚀较弱；域流域较大范围的崩塌是由于10-50mm/d降雨形成的,崩塌危险指数空间分布表现坡上值小于坡下值,总体上游小于下游,在沟道之中最大,在同等降水情况下,上游和坡上发生崩塌概率最大,沟道之中发生崩塌概率最小；改进后的模型使得径流过程的纳什效率系数从0.68提升为0.81,输沙过程纳什系数从0.72提升到0.85,模拟值更加符合实际观测值。
(6)在气候和土地利用预测的基础上,应用改进后的TOPOG模型,对环境演变下的对未来40年生态水文过程进行模拟分析,发现：未来40年内,吕二沟流域降水资源、径流输沙均逐渐减少,且表现出季节变化,蒸散发损耗水量在未来40年内占水资源比例逐渐增强,径流所占比例逐渐减弱；由于人类活动引起的土地利用变化对径流泥沙贡献率逐渐降低,而由于气候波动对径流泥沙影响越来越显著；气候变化对径流贡献率比对泥沙贡献率大,而土地利用变化对泥沙贡献率则大于对径流贡献率；一年之中,随着雨季来临,气候变化和土地利用变化与水文过程相关性增强,随着雨季结束而减弱,在不同的生态水文过程中,水文过程与气候相关系数均大于其与土地利用变化系数,在雨季表现更为明显。
The ecohydrology processes response to environmental change, is performance that the change of ecohydrology processes with the climate and land use changes. The Lvergou watershed has been taken as study area, through analyzing the climate, land use and soil datas, forecasting climate and land use change the next 40 years. The improved eco-hydrological model TOPOG was adopted to simulate the ecohydrology processes, and analyze the causes of its. The research provided the technical support for the department of soil and water conservation and land use. The main conclusions were as follows:
(1) The rainfall has large fluctuations between years, with average rainfall of 533.65mm. The sudden change did not occur throughout the study period, but has been in obvious decline. The rainfall in June-September accounted for 85.62% in years. For many years, the average annual precipitation on upper> middle> lower reaches of the property, besides increasing with altitude and the more the precipitation, the more spatial heterogeneity. In the past 50 years, the high, average and minimum temperatures increased at the speed of 0.024℃/a,0.0279℃/a and 0.0289℃/a, and the sudden change occurred at 1997-1999. The actual evapotranspiration has no significant of sudden change, and been in decline mainly affected by precipitation. The potential evapotranspiration increased, and decision of precipitation and temperature change. Climate in next 40 years has been predicted, based on analyzing of climate change.
(2) The land use/cover has great changes at Lvergou watershed in the Loess Plateau during the study period. The mainly changes is the area of grassland and sloping land were reduce, terraces and woodland area were increase. In 1986-1995 for the overall planning of land use, the type and area of land use violently changes; in 1995-2001 for the self-adjustment period, the number of small-range changes; in 2001-2008 was stable, a variety of land use change slightly. Appling CA-Markov model, using IDRISI software, removing the acceleration of land use change, based on the rate of land use change, the quantity and spatial of land use has been simulated in forecast at study watershed.
(3) The relationship between hydrologic and physical of soil in Lvergou watershed is closely. There are different particle composition and capillary, in different types of land use soil. But soil moisture changed slightly the vertical direction. The soil permeability coefficients of locust forest is biggest, the cultivated land and orchard is smallest. The soil permeability coefficient is well related to bulk density and non-capillary pore. The anti-erodibility (k) changes in a small bound. The largest, the least k appeared in grassland and slope farmland. The k precipitated on upstream
(4) The precipitation and sediment changed in a same way between the annual, during 1982-2010 in Lvergou watershed. Sediment is response for runoff strongly. Runoff and sediment have changes in based period, non-significant change period and significant change period. During the non-significant change period and significant change period, the contribution rate of land use reduced, and the contribution rate of climate increased, control Measures is important to decline runoff and sediment.
(5) Wetness index(WI) varies as a consequence of these different data inputs. WI increased by uniform drainage flux value(q) increase; A comparison was made between a set of uniform transmissivity (T) and uniform rainfall (R) values, and found that TOPOG predicted the expected trend that soil moisture within the watershed increased with increasing uniform T and uniform R values. In different seasons, the value of radiation-weighted WI is summer>equinox> winter. Erosion hazard index of watershed (HW) is lower with the best land cover, and greater with high rate of surface exposed. In the same ground cover, soil erosion occurs mainly on the slope, and channel erosion is weak in the study area. The rainfall at the range of 10-50mm/d caused a wind range of area to landslide in Lvergou watershed. The landslide hazard index (Rcr) in upslope and upstream were lower. The probability of occurrence of landslide at groove was the smallest in the same case of rainfall. The improved model enhanced the Nash efficiency coefficient from 0.68 to 0.81 in runoff processes, and from 0.72 to 0.85 in sediment transport processes, the simulated values were more in line with the observed values.
(6) The improved TOPOG model was adopted to simulate and analysis the ecohydrology processes based on the climate and land use forecasted in next 40 years. The precipitation, runoff and sediment will gradually reduced, showed seasonal variation. The evapotranspiration gradually increased the proportion, the proportion of runoff gradually decreased of total water resources in the future. The contribution rate of land use change on runoff and sediment will gradually decrease, and the contribution rate of climate change will be more and more significant. The contribution rate of climate change on runoff will be larger than contribution of sediment, while the contribution rate of land use change on sediment will be larger than contribution of runoff. The correlation between climate change, land use changes and ecohydrology processes is going to enhance in the rainy seasons. The coefficient of hydrological processes and climate is greater than land use change, more, obviously in the rainy seasons.
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