贸易发展、金融发展与货币国际化
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摘要
本文以贸易发展和金融发展为切入点,建构货币国际化的理论基础及框架。贸易发展是货币国际化的基础条件,贸易发展产生对国际货币的内在需求,一种货币通过在贸易领域发挥交换媒介和记账单位职能,逐步形成市场选择其作为国际货币的运行机制,从而奠定货币国际化基本的原初的市场基础。金融发展是货币国际化的必要条件,金融发展产生对国际货币的新需求,一种货币通过在金融领域发挥交换媒介、记账单位和价值贮藏职能,逐步拓展以其表征的金融市场的深度和广度,从而在贸易发展向金融发展转换进程中搭建起更高层次的推动货币国际化的制度安排。现代以来主要经济体的货币国际化实践,验证了贸易发展和金融发展对货币国际化的影响机理。基于中国的贸易和金融发展实际,当前时期推进人民币国际化,必须依托中国贸易发展为突破口,辅之以金融发展为有力支撑,构筑市场选择与制度推进相结合的人民币国际发展战略。
This paper focus on the issue of currency internationalization from the perspective of trade and finance development, then try to construct corrective theory structure. The paper analyzes the currency internationalization mechanism base on a brief historical retrospect of the main modern currencies. The results of investigation include (a) trade development is the fundmental cause of currency internationalization, (b) finance development is the necessary condition of currency internationalization, (c) the internationalization of Sterling, Dollar, Mark, Euro and Yen validated forward (a) and (b). According to the theory and demonstration, this paper analyzes RMB internationalization on the base of china economy development, a better strategy of currency internationalization was put forward from the development of china trade and finance.
The main finding of this paper is that study currency internationalization from the perspective of trade and finance development, it offers a new angle of view to corrective analysis. This paper includes the further study about relation of trade development and finance development base on international political economy. On the grounding of this theory, this paper analyzes currency internationalization, international economy system and world economic power cycles. About analytical method, this paper puts in the tools of search model that is a new thing for internal researchers.
This paper includes five sections.
Section I , Introduction. About the main issues, concept, theory and reality groundings of the paper. It also has a literature review of currency internationalization, then generalize the main viewpoints, structures and innovations.
Section II, Trade development is the fundmental cause of currency internationalization. As tools of international trade, currencies carry out the function to facilitate international transaction. And this process is also the mechanism of promoting currency internationalized. The promoting mechanism of trade development consists of two aspects. First is monetary search model about currency as exchange media of international trade. Second is the theory about invoicing currency for international trade. From these theories, we can find that trade development is the fundmental cause of currency internationalization. If one currency can be accepted as media of exchange and unit of account for much more trade flow, the primary market foundation for currency internationalization should be built, then market would select the currency to be international tool more and more. This effect of promoting currency internationalized would be obvious before the modern economy emergence, trade development is the only one cause of currency internationalization at that times. Nowadays, the effects from trade development can also be the basic factors for currency internationalization.
Section III, Finance development is the necessary condition of currency internationalization. On the one hand, this section analyzes the nexus between finance development and currency internationalization from the perspective of economics, on the other hand, this section discusses the influence of finance development for currency internationalization from international political economy. Moreover, this section reviews the national economy strategy of currency internationalization by linking finance development and to trade development. We can draw the conclusion that finance development is the significant power to accelerate the process of currency internationalization especially in modern economy. In fact, with the progress of world economy, finance development has become the new higher acceleration to currency internationalization on the base of trade development.
Section IV, Historical experience models of currency internationalization. This section looks back the traces of the main international currencies on the ground of trade and finance development. Although both trade development and finance development have play an important role in currency internationalization, but the mechanisms are different. Namely, Sterling internationalization depend much more on trade development; Dollar internationalization rely on both trade development and finance development; Mark & Euro internationalization base on the coordination of trade development and finance development (further on trade and finance integration); Yen internationalization neglect the role of trade development and depend more on finance arrangement singly. Importantly, the process of great economy power's currency internationalization is the same as the upgrading transformation from trade development to finance development.
Section V, RMB internationalization from the view of china trade and finance development. Firstly, we make a survey of RMB internationalization. Secondly, we analyze the huge demand of finance development and RMB internationalization on the condition of china trade development. Finally, we point out the strategy of RMB internationalization from the angle of china trade and finance development. To promote RMB internationalization, china must consider the present condition that finance development has been dropped behind trade development. If china wants to construct the driving mechanism of RMB internationalization, it should make full use of the advantages from trade development firstly. Meanwhile, finance development should be follow up immediately. With the transformation coming true from trade development to finance development step by step, China RMB will rise up in the international monetary system and then become the most important international currency in the world.
This paper focus on the issue of currency internationalization from the perspective of trade and finance development, then try to construct corrective theory structure. The paper analyzes the currency internationalization mechanism base on a brief historical retrospect of the main modern currencies. The results of investigation include (a) trade development is the fundmental cause of currency internationalization, (b) finance development is the necessary condition of currency internationalization, (c) the internationalization of Sterling, Dollar, Mark, Euro and Yen validated forward (a) and (b). According to the theory and demonstration, this paper analyzes RMB internationalization on the base of china economy development, a better strategy of currency internationalization was put forward from the development of china trade and finance.
The main finding of this paper is that study currency internationalization from the perspective of trade and finance development, it offers a new angle of view to corrective analysis. This paper includes the further study about relation of trade development and finance development base on international political economy. On the grounding of this theory, this paper analyzes currency internationalization, international economy system and world economic power cycles. About analytical method, this paper puts in the tools of search model that is a new thing for internal researchers.
This paper includes five sections.
Section I , Introduction. About the main issues, concept, theory and reality groundings of the paper. It also has a literature review of currency internationalization, then generalize the main viewpoints, structures and innovations.
Section II, Trade development is the fundmental cause of currency internationalization. As tools of international trade, currencies carry out the function to facilitate international transaction. And this process is also the mechanism of promoting currency internationalized. The promoting mechanism of trade development consists of two aspects. First is monetary search model about currency as exchange media of international trade. Second is the theory about invoicing currency for international trade. From these theories, we can find that trade development is the fundmental cause of currency internationalization. If one currency can be accepted as media of exchange and unit of account for much more trade flow, the primary market foundation for currency internationalization should be built, then market would select the currency to be international tool more and more. This effect of promoting currency internationalized would be obvious before the modern economy emergence, trade development is the only one cause of currency internationalization at that times. Nowadays, the effects from trade development can also be the basic factors for currency internationalization.
Section III, Finance development is the necessary condition of currency internationalization. On the one hand, this section analyzes the nexus between finance development and currency internationalization from the perspective of economics, on the other hand, this section discusses the influence of finance development for currency internationalization from international political economy. Moreover, this section reviews the national economy strategy of currency internationalization by linking finance development and to trade development. We can draw the conclusion that finance development is the significant power to accelerate the process of currency internationalization especially in modern economy. In fact, with the progress of world economy, finance development has become the new higher acceleration to currency internationalization on the base of trade development.
Section IV, Historical experience models of currency internationalization. This section looks back the traces of the main international currencies on the ground of trade and finance development. Although both trade development and finance development have play an important role in currency internationalization, but the mechanisms are different. Namely, Sterling internationalization depend much more on trade development; Dollar internationalization rely on both trade development and finance development; Mark & Euro internationalization base on the coordination of trade development and finance development (further on trade and finance integration); Yen internationalization neglect the role of trade development and depend more on finance arrangement singly. Importantly, the process of great economy power's currency internationalization is the same as the upgrading transformation from trade development to finance development.
Section V, RMB internationalization from the view of china trade and finance development. Firstly, we make a survey of RMB internationalization. Secondly, we analyze the huge demand of finance development and RMB internationalization on the condition of china trade development. Finally, we point out the strategy of RMB internationalization from the angle of china trade and finance development. To promote RMB internationalization, china must consider the present condition that finance development has been dropped behind trade development. If china wants to construct the driving mechanism of RMB internationalization, it should make full use of the advantages from trade development firstly. Meanwhile, finance development should be follow up immediately. With the transformation coming true from trade development to finance development step by step, China RMB will rise up in the international monetary system and then become the most important international currency in the world.
引文
[1]关于网络外部性和相关概念的定义见Liebowitz,and S.Margolis(1998)。
[1]转引自姜波克,张青龙(2005b)。
[1]转引自姜波克,张青龙(2005b)。
[1]转引自姜波克,张青龙(2005b)。
[1]见Victor E.Li(2001)。
[1]关于网络外部性和相关概念的定义见Liebowitz,and S.Margolis(1998)。
[2]本文在第一章已有论述。
[3]Hiroyuki Oi,Akira Otani,Toyoichirou Shirota(2003)认为,计价货币的重要性相当广泛。出口商对于出口产品计价货币的选择——使用生产者货币(PCP)还是当地货币(LCP)——对货币政策的传导、最优货币政策规则和最优汇率制度都具有重要影响。
[1]转引自姜波克,张青龙(2005)。
[1]下述有关16世纪到20世纪70年代这一时期的国际资本流动情况,参考了网站http;//www.op360.com/News/2006-3-25/2006-3-258864.html的内容。
[1]见http;//finance.sina.com.cn/forex/forexroll/20050322/O9171448997.shtml
[2]来自《2003年上海统计年鉴》。
[1]转引自沈能(2006)。
[1]转引自查尔斯·P.金德尔伯格(2003)。
[1]关于霸权稳定理论的综述性研究见任东来(1995),樊勇明(2000)等。
[1]转引自王正毅,张岩贵(2003)。
[1]从卡洛林王朝体系到英格兰铸币体系,国际货币贵金属的实质内容没有改变,但作为货币体系的标准在变化,查理大帝就是用征服的手段将卡洛林王朝体系下的银铸币推广到英格兰的各个邻国(约翰·F·乔恩,1994)。
[1]相关一些文献论述转引自查尔斯·P.金德尔伯格(2003)。
[1]相关一些文献论述转引自查尔斯·P.金德尔伯格(2003)。
[1]转引自杰奥瓦尼·阿锐基,贝弗里·希尔弗(2003)。
[1]同时,当前时期美国在全球贸易格局中的地位变化,也将逐步成为美元国际化走下坡路的一个因素。2003年,德国出口达到7483亿美元,占世界出口总量的比重达到10%,德国出口贸易超过美国,成为全球第一大出口国,改变了美国进出口都居全球首位的世界贸易格局。从2004年世界主要贸易国家的出口情况来看,德国的货物贸易出口仍然保持世界第一的位置,德国出口额已经超过美国出口额近1000亿美元。但是,在进口方面,美国一直占据世界第一的位置,而且美国的进口数量非常庞大,远远超过了其他主要贸易国家。2004年,美国进口量占全球进口总量的比重仍在16%以上。参见WTO world wade report 2005。
[1]关于马克国际化的成果,有学者认为二战后马克国际化成果不大,二战后,德国经济强大,也是世界工厂,但马克国际化发展不大,一个原因是跟德国的政策有关,德国长时间出口大于进口(黄海洲,2006)。
[2]贸易集中度1_(ij)(I_(ij)=X_(ij)/M_j)是两个比重之比,其中X_(ij)是指i国出口到j地区的出口额占其出口总额的比重,M_j是指j地区进口在全球进口中比重,。
[1]参见王薇(2007);《欧元5岁;成长中的烦恼》,中国经济网2007年01月01日;《欧洲人迎来欧元5周岁》,《环球时报》2007年1月4日第15版。
[1]见《日元国际地位持续下降》,《经济日报》2006年8月29日。
[1]《日本贸易振兴会白皮书;世界贸易投资篇(2004)》,2004年9月7日版。
[1]《日本贸易振兴会白皮书;世界贸易投资篇(2004)》,2004年9月7日版。
[1]参见《中华工商时报》2006年10月12日。
[1]WTO world trade report 2002,2003,2004,2005.
[1]商务部研究院课题组;《中国对外贸易的适度发展》。
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[1]转引自姜波克,张青龙(2005b)。
[1]转引自姜波克,张青龙(2005b)。
[1]转引自姜波克,张青龙(2005b)。
[1]见Victor E.Li(2001)。
[1]关于网络外部性和相关概念的定义见Liebowitz,and S.Margolis(1998)。
[2]本文在第一章已有论述。
[3]Hiroyuki Oi,Akira Otani,Toyoichirou Shirota(2003)认为,计价货币的重要性相当广泛。出口商对于出口产品计价货币的选择——使用生产者货币(PCP)还是当地货币(LCP)——对货币政策的传导、最优货币政策规则和最优汇率制度都具有重要影响。
[1]转引自姜波克,张青龙(2005)。
[1]下述有关16世纪到20世纪70年代这一时期的国际资本流动情况,参考了网站http;//www.op360.com/News/2006-3-25/2006-3-258864.html的内容。
[1]见http;//finance.sina.com.cn/forex/forexroll/20050322/O9171448997.shtml
[2]来自《2003年上海统计年鉴》。
[1]转引自沈能(2006)。
[1]转引自查尔斯·P.金德尔伯格(2003)。
[1]关于霸权稳定理论的综述性研究见任东来(1995),樊勇明(2000)等。
[1]转引自王正毅,张岩贵(2003)。
[1]从卡洛林王朝体系到英格兰铸币体系,国际货币贵金属的实质内容没有改变,但作为货币体系的标准在变化,查理大帝就是用征服的手段将卡洛林王朝体系下的银铸币推广到英格兰的各个邻国(约翰·F·乔恩,1994)。
[1]相关一些文献论述转引自查尔斯·P.金德尔伯格(2003)。
[1]相关一些文献论述转引自查尔斯·P.金德尔伯格(2003)。
[1]转引自杰奥瓦尼·阿锐基,贝弗里·希尔弗(2003)。
[1]同时,当前时期美国在全球贸易格局中的地位变化,也将逐步成为美元国际化走下坡路的一个因素。2003年,德国出口达到7483亿美元,占世界出口总量的比重达到10%,德国出口贸易超过美国,成为全球第一大出口国,改变了美国进出口都居全球首位的世界贸易格局。从2004年世界主要贸易国家的出口情况来看,德国的货物贸易出口仍然保持世界第一的位置,德国出口额已经超过美国出口额近1000亿美元。但是,在进口方面,美国一直占据世界第一的位置,而且美国的进口数量非常庞大,远远超过了其他主要贸易国家。2004年,美国进口量占全球进口总量的比重仍在16%以上。参见WTO world wade report 2005。
[1]关于马克国际化的成果,有学者认为二战后马克国际化成果不大,二战后,德国经济强大,也是世界工厂,但马克国际化发展不大,一个原因是跟德国的政策有关,德国长时间出口大于进口(黄海洲,2006)。
[2]贸易集中度1_(ij)(I_(ij)=X_(ij)/M_j)是两个比重之比,其中X_(ij)是指i国出口到j地区的出口额占其出口总额的比重,M_j是指j地区进口在全球进口中比重,。
[1]参见王薇(2007);《欧元5岁;成长中的烦恼》,中国经济网2007年01月01日;《欧洲人迎来欧元5周岁》,《环球时报》2007年1月4日第15版。
[1]见《日元国际地位持续下降》,《经济日报》2006年8月29日。
[1]《日本贸易振兴会白皮书;世界贸易投资篇(2004)》,2004年9月7日版。
[1]《日本贸易振兴会白皮书;世界贸易投资篇(2004)》,2004年9月7日版。
[1]参见《中华工商时报》2006年10月12日。
[1]WTO world trade report 2002,2003,2004,2005.
[1]商务部研究院课题组;《中国对外贸易的适度发展》。
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[15].陈学斌(2002);《人民币在俄罗斯边境地区流通的利弊》,《外汇与管理》第9期。
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