北京市以园林绿化废弃物为原料的生物质燃料市场推广研究
摘要
随着城市绿化步伐的加快,北京市枯枝、落叶、草屑、花瓣及其它绿化修剪物等园林绿化废弃物出现大量堆积的情况,预计2012年理论数量将达到534.85万吨。采用传统方式进行填埋、焚烧处理,既给政府带来资金负担,又浪费土地资源,还会对环境产生长久危害。由于园林绿化废弃物成分基本为有机质,为纯净有机资源,存在巨大的再利用潜能,将其资源化、无害化处理才是上策。目前园林绿化废弃物资源化利用方式之一是制成生物质燃料,不仅可以解决部分园林绿化废弃物堆积问题,还能一定程度上缓解石化能源危机,但由于现有的生物质燃料产品难以真正进入市场,这本应该形成的废弃物处理良性循环在消费环节遇到阻碍。
本研究运用SPSS、STATA等统计软件,通过一元回归模型、时间序列预测模型、二元logistic模型,主要针对该市场形成的必要性、市场效益、市场需求、影响市场形成的主要因素进行分析,并从产品用户、生物质燃料企业、政府三个角度给出了具体应对措施。主要结论有：
(1)一个年生产能力为1.32万吨的生物质燃料厂每年消耗园林绿化废弃物7.2万吨,能够在很大程度上抑制园林绿化废弃物的增长与堆积。
(2)以园林绿化废弃物为原料的生物质燃料市场能够同时带来经济、生态、社会效益。具体体现在年生产能力为1.32万吨的生物质燃料厂年利润约200万,解决25人就业；使用生物质燃料的小型用户可节约采暖费用25.4元/m2；政府节省垃圾处理费用将近4亿；用1万吨生物质燃料来替代煤炭,共减排废气废渣1.873万吨。
(3)影响市场推广的阻碍因素主要体现在用户的个人素质、环保意识和产品价格,生物质燃料生产成本高,生产企业难以达到最大生产能力,需要政府解决的三大问题：引进以园林绿化废弃物为原料的生物质燃料生产需要的关键设备或者寻求先进技术合作,辅助生产厂家正式建立商业体系,制定相关扶持政策。
(4)以园林绿化废弃物为原料的生物质燃料市场推广的具体措施包括提高用户环保意识,改变用能习惯：加强生物质燃料厂家对营销组合策略的运用；加强政府干预。
With the accelerated pace of urban greening, twigs, leaves, grass clippings, flower petals and other green trimmings and other landscaping waste accumulated a lot in Beijing, it is expected that the theory amount will reach5,348,500tons by2012. Using the traditional approach to landfill or set on fire, both a financial burden to the government and the waste of land resources, but also produce long-term harm to the environment. Since the basic landscaping waste is composed of organic matter, which is pure organic resources, there is a huge potential to reuse, and sound processing is the best policy. One of the landscaping waste utilization is biomass fuels which can not only solve part of the landscaping waste accumulation, but also alleviate the petrochemical energy crisis to some extent, however, due to the existing biomass fuel products is difficult to really enter the market, the formation of waste disposal virtuous cycle of is hampered in consumption link.
This study uses SPSS, and the STATA statistical software, through simple regression model, time series forecasting model, the binary logistic model to analyze the necessity of market formation, market efficiency, market demand and the main factors affecting the market formation, and give the specific response measures from three angles:product users, biomass fuel companies and the Government. The main conclusions are:
(1) An annual production capacity of13,200tons of biomass fuel plant's annual can consume72,000tons landscape waste, which can significantly inhibit the growth and accumulation of landscaping waste.
(2) Biomass fuel made of landscaping waste as market can offer a combination of economic, ecological and social benefits. The biomass fuel plant whose annual production capacity is13,200tons gets annual profit is about2million, solves the employment of25; small-scale users of biomass fuel can save heating costs￥25.4/m2; the government save waste disposal costs nearly400million; emission reduction residue18,730tons if using10,000tons of biomass fuels to replace coal.
(3) Market promotion obstacles is mainly reflected in the user's personal qualities, environmental awareness and product prices, high biomass fuel production costs and manufacturers'failure to reach its maximum capacity, besides, the government need to solve three major issues:introduce critical equipment of biomass fuel production which takes landscaping waste as raw materials or advanced technical cooperation, help manufacturers to establish a commercial system formally, and develop relevant supporting policies.
(4) Biomass fuel market which takes landscape waste as raw materials promotion measures conclude: improve the environmental awareness of users and change their energy use habits; strengthen the manufacturers of biomass fuel on the use of marketing mix strategies; government intervention.
本研究运用SPSS、STATA等统计软件,通过一元回归模型、时间序列预测模型、二元logistic模型,主要针对该市场形成的必要性、市场效益、市场需求、影响市场形成的主要因素进行分析,并从产品用户、生物质燃料企业、政府三个角度给出了具体应对措施。主要结论有：
(1)一个年生产能力为1.32万吨的生物质燃料厂每年消耗园林绿化废弃物7.2万吨,能够在很大程度上抑制园林绿化废弃物的增长与堆积。
(2)以园林绿化废弃物为原料的生物质燃料市场能够同时带来经济、生态、社会效益。具体体现在年生产能力为1.32万吨的生物质燃料厂年利润约200万,解决25人就业；使用生物质燃料的小型用户可节约采暖费用25.4元/m2；政府节省垃圾处理费用将近4亿；用1万吨生物质燃料来替代煤炭,共减排废气废渣1.873万吨。
(3)影响市场推广的阻碍因素主要体现在用户的个人素质、环保意识和产品价格,生物质燃料生产成本高,生产企业难以达到最大生产能力,需要政府解决的三大问题：引进以园林绿化废弃物为原料的生物质燃料生产需要的关键设备或者寻求先进技术合作,辅助生产厂家正式建立商业体系,制定相关扶持政策。
(4)以园林绿化废弃物为原料的生物质燃料市场推广的具体措施包括提高用户环保意识,改变用能习惯：加强生物质燃料厂家对营销组合策略的运用；加强政府干预。
With the accelerated pace of urban greening, twigs, leaves, grass clippings, flower petals and other green trimmings and other landscaping waste accumulated a lot in Beijing, it is expected that the theory amount will reach5,348,500tons by2012. Using the traditional approach to landfill or set on fire, both a financial burden to the government and the waste of land resources, but also produce long-term harm to the environment. Since the basic landscaping waste is composed of organic matter, which is pure organic resources, there is a huge potential to reuse, and sound processing is the best policy. One of the landscaping waste utilization is biomass fuels which can not only solve part of the landscaping waste accumulation, but also alleviate the petrochemical energy crisis to some extent, however, due to the existing biomass fuel products is difficult to really enter the market, the formation of waste disposal virtuous cycle of is hampered in consumption link.
This study uses SPSS, and the STATA statistical software, through simple regression model, time series forecasting model, the binary logistic model to analyze the necessity of market formation, market efficiency, market demand and the main factors affecting the market formation, and give the specific response measures from three angles:product users, biomass fuel companies and the Government. The main conclusions are:
(1) An annual production capacity of13,200tons of biomass fuel plant's annual can consume72,000tons landscape waste, which can significantly inhibit the growth and accumulation of landscaping waste.
(2) Biomass fuel made of landscaping waste as market can offer a combination of economic, ecological and social benefits. The biomass fuel plant whose annual production capacity is13,200tons gets annual profit is about2million, solves the employment of25; small-scale users of biomass fuel can save heating costs￥25.4/m2; the government save waste disposal costs nearly400million; emission reduction residue18,730tons if using10,000tons of biomass fuels to replace coal.
(3) Market promotion obstacles is mainly reflected in the user's personal qualities, environmental awareness and product prices, high biomass fuel production costs and manufacturers'failure to reach its maximum capacity, besides, the government need to solve three major issues:introduce critical equipment of biomass fuel production which takes landscaping waste as raw materials or advanced technical cooperation, help manufacturers to establish a commercial system formally, and develop relevant supporting policies.
(4) Biomass fuel market which takes landscape waste as raw materials promotion measures conclude: improve the environmental awareness of users and change their energy use habits; strengthen the manufacturers of biomass fuel on the use of marketing mix strategies; government intervention.
引文
[1]北京农村年鉴.中国农业出版社,2002-2006.
[2]北京市统计局,国家统计局北京调查总队.北京统计年鉴.中国统计出版社,2005-2011.
[3]戴宏民,戴佩华.废弃物处理的无害化、资源化和环境化[J].林业经济,2003(2)：03-05.
[4]杜强,贾丽艳SPSS统计分析从入门到精通[M].北京：人民邮电出版社,2009,3.
[5]高鸿业.西方经济学(第四版)[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2009.
[6]郭瑞超,唐军荣,青辉等.木质生物质能源的开发利用现状与展望[J].林业调查规划,2007,2(1)：90-94.
[7]简明.市场调查方法与技术[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2009.
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[10]李世杰.市场营销与策划[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006,9.
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[13]刘婷等.产业生命周期理论研究进展[J].湖南农业科学,2009(8)：56-59.
[14]刘祖军,张大红,米锋等.生物质成型燃料产业发展前景分析[J].林业经济,2010(3)：87-89.
[15]吕子文,方海兰,黄彩娣.美国园林废弃物的处置对我国的启示[J].中国园林,2007(8)：90-94.
[16]曼昆.宏观经济学[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005.
[17]聂倩.财政资金支持循环经济发展的思考[J].中国乡镇企业会计,2007：94-95.
[18]苏贤明.北京园林绿化废弃物资源化利用与选址布局研究[D].北京：北京林业大学经济管理学院,2010.
[19]田春龙,郭斌等.能源植物研究现状和展望[J].生物加工过程,2005,3(1)：14-19.
[20]王文轩.德国废弃物回收处理厂的经营模式与概念[J].生态经济,2006(7)：09-11.
[21]希尔·琼斯著,孙忠译.战略管理[M].北京：中国市场出版社,2007,7.
[22]谢明辉,刘宝仁,赵小萍等.北京市城市废弃物处理现状及废弃物收集量预测[J].吉林建筑工程学院学报,2005,22(4)：39-41.
[23]邢熙,郑风田.中国林业生物质能源：现状、障碍及前景.林业经济,2009(3)：6-12.
[24]杨高峰,樊峰鸣.我国生物质成型燃料产业实证分析[J].河南科学,2007(6)：1036-1039.
[25]于鑫.孙向阳.徐佳等.北京市园林绿化废弃物现状调查及再利用对策探讨[J].山东林业科技,2009(4)：05-07.
[26]张百良,樊峰鸣,李保谦等.生物质成型燃料技术及产业化前景分析[J].河南农业大学学报,2009,39(1)：111-115.
[27]张峰,刘伟.北京市能源消费预测与政策初步建议[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2008,18(3)：100.
[28]张瑞芹,王炎昌,丁小会.农村生物质再生资源利用的构思[J].可再生能源,2004(5)：47-50.
[29]张晓宣等.北京能源系统存在的问题[J].节能环保,2008,5.
[30]张嵎喆.应借鉴美国扶持生物质能产业发展的经验[J].经济纵横,2008(11)：86-88.
[31]张远宾.发展颗粒燃料,便捷和高效利用生物质资源[J].中国工程咨询,2010(3)：20-22.
[32]赵立欣,孟海波,姚宗路等.中国生物质固体成型燃料技术和产业[J].中国工程科学,2011(2)：78-82.
[33]郑宗成,汪德宏,姚承纲.品牌知行(微观品牌管理与研究)[M].广州：中山大学出版社,2004.5.
[34]周斌,雷建国,魏然.生物质秸秆成型燃料的制备、应用与市场[J].中国环保产业,2011(6)：40-44.
[35]Belum V. S. Reddy & S. Ramesh & A. Ashok Kumar. Bio-Fuel Crops Research for Energy Security and Rural Development in Developing Countries[J]. Bioenerg. Res.2008(1):248-258.
[36]Evanson T.Nicholas I.The Potential of Wood Waste going to Landfill as a Biomass Fuel[R]. Rotoru a:Forest Research,2004.
[37]Kim A.O'Connell.Seeking greener pasture,In an era when some recycling programs are suffering, one sector of waste management continues to grow,literally:yard waste[M]. Waste age,2004:33-38.
[2]北京市统计局,国家统计局北京调查总队.北京统计年鉴.中国统计出版社,2005-2011.
[3]戴宏民,戴佩华.废弃物处理的无害化、资源化和环境化[J].林业经济,2003(2)：03-05.
[4]杜强,贾丽艳SPSS统计分析从入门到精通[M].北京：人民邮电出版社,2009,3.
[5]高鸿业.西方经济学(第四版)[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2009.
[6]郭瑞超,唐军荣,青辉等.木质生物质能源的开发利用现状与展望[J].林业调查规划,2007,2(1)：90-94.
[7]简明.市场调查方法与技术[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2009.
[8]劳伦斯·汉密尔顿.应用STATA做统计分析[M].重庆：重庆大学出版社,2008,8.
[9]李宁.河南省生物质(秸秆、林业废弃物)发电现状、存在问题及对策研究[D].郑州：河南农业大学,2009.
[10]李世杰.市场营销与策划[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006,9.
[11]李育材.积极发展我国林木生物质能源[J].宏观经济管理,2006(7)：4-7.
[12]梁晶,吕子文,方海兰.园林绿色废弃物堆肥处理的国外现状与我国的出路[J].中国园林,2009(4)：01-05.
[13]刘婷等.产业生命周期理论研究进展[J].湖南农业科学,2009(8)：56-59.
[14]刘祖军,张大红,米锋等.生物质成型燃料产业发展前景分析[J].林业经济,2010(3)：87-89.
[15]吕子文,方海兰,黄彩娣.美国园林废弃物的处置对我国的启示[J].中国园林,2007(8)：90-94.
[16]曼昆.宏观经济学[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005.
[17]聂倩.财政资金支持循环经济发展的思考[J].中国乡镇企业会计,2007：94-95.
[18]苏贤明.北京园林绿化废弃物资源化利用与选址布局研究[D].北京：北京林业大学经济管理学院,2010.
[19]田春龙,郭斌等.能源植物研究现状和展望[J].生物加工过程,2005,3(1)：14-19.
[20]王文轩.德国废弃物回收处理厂的经营模式与概念[J].生态经济,2006(7)：09-11.
[21]希尔·琼斯著,孙忠译.战略管理[M].北京：中国市场出版社,2007,7.
[22]谢明辉,刘宝仁,赵小萍等.北京市城市废弃物处理现状及废弃物收集量预测[J].吉林建筑工程学院学报,2005,22(4)：39-41.
[23]邢熙,郑风田.中国林业生物质能源：现状、障碍及前景.林业经济,2009(3)：6-12.
[24]杨高峰,樊峰鸣.我国生物质成型燃料产业实证分析[J].河南科学,2007(6)：1036-1039.
[25]于鑫.孙向阳.徐佳等.北京市园林绿化废弃物现状调查及再利用对策探讨[J].山东林业科技,2009(4)：05-07.
[26]张百良,樊峰鸣,李保谦等.生物质成型燃料技术及产业化前景分析[J].河南农业大学学报,2009,39(1)：111-115.
[27]张峰,刘伟.北京市能源消费预测与政策初步建议[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2008,18(3)：100.
[28]张瑞芹,王炎昌,丁小会.农村生物质再生资源利用的构思[J].可再生能源,2004(5)：47-50.
[29]张晓宣等.北京能源系统存在的问题[J].节能环保,2008,5.
[30]张嵎喆.应借鉴美国扶持生物质能产业发展的经验[J].经济纵横,2008(11)：86-88.
[31]张远宾.发展颗粒燃料,便捷和高效利用生物质资源[J].中国工程咨询,2010(3)：20-22.
[32]赵立欣,孟海波,姚宗路等.中国生物质固体成型燃料技术和产业[J].中国工程科学,2011(2)：78-82.
[33]郑宗成,汪德宏,姚承纲.品牌知行(微观品牌管理与研究)[M].广州：中山大学出版社,2004.5.
[34]周斌,雷建国,魏然.生物质秸秆成型燃料的制备、应用与市场[J].中国环保产业,2011(6)：40-44.
[35]Belum V. S. Reddy & S. Ramesh & A. Ashok Kumar. Bio-Fuel Crops Research for Energy Security and Rural Development in Developing Countries[J]. Bioenerg. Res.2008(1):248-258.
[36]Evanson T.Nicholas I.The Potential of Wood Waste going to Landfill as a Biomass Fuel[R]. Rotoru a:Forest Research,2004.
[37]Kim A.O'Connell.Seeking greener pasture,In an era when some recycling programs are suffering, one sector of waste management continues to grow,literally:yard waste[M]. Waste age,2004:33-38.
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