区域高速公路网交通需求预测与实例评价研究
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摘要
我国高速公路经过二十年的建设和发展取得了巨大的进步,以高速公路为主体的现代化公路交通运输体系以其高效的运输服务有力地促进了我国国民经济的健康快速发展。伴随着《国家高速公路网规划》的通过与实施,各地也相应积极规划建设地方高速公路,我国高速公路建设将迈入新一轮的跨越式发展阶段。在高速公路建设呈现网络化、规模化的同时,其社会经济效益日益凸显,科学地评价区域高速公路网社会经济效益、探讨区域高速公路网与经济社会发展的互动关系对于合理制订高速公路的发展战略及规划,兼顾地区公平,促进交通运输与经济社会的协调、可持续发展具有一定的理论价值和现实指导意义。
本文围绕济南至东营高速公路展开研究,以提供决策参考。拟建济南至东营高速公路起自济南市区北部,向东经济阳县,滨州市惠民县、滨城区,东营市利津县,接至东营港疏港高速。全长163.3公里,是山东省高速公路“5418”网的重要组成部分,直接连接了济南、滨州、东营三个地市以及黄河三角洲内重要的工矿企业和旅游景点,是一条具有政治、经济和文化意义的重要公路。
论文采用四阶段法对济南至东营高速公路交通量进行预测,.交通量预测是进行经济评价的基础。阐述了交通量预测的思路和方法,确定了OD交通调查的方法,对交通小区进行了划分,对调查到的基年OD进行了核校检验,在此基础上,完成了交通生成、交通分布、交通分配,对济南至东营高速公路交通量进行了预测。
在交通预测的基础上,对济南至东营高速公路分别进行了经济评价和社会评价。结合济南至东营高速公路项目的实际情况,选用过民经济评价的方法,对项目的经济效益进行了分析、论证,论证该项目的分析结果是可行的,且具有较强的抗风险能力。进行了社会影响的评价、项目与社会的互适性评价、项目的社会风险及对策评价三个方面进行评价,论证表明该工程可以促进区域经济发展,增加当地人民的就业机会,提高人民的生活水平,可以立项建设。实践也证明了这评价的正确性。
The construction and development of expressway has made great achievement in china during past20years. The system of modern road and transportation representative by expressway has promoted the development of economy effectively in this period, as well as efficient service system. As the planning of national expressway implementing, the planning and construction of regional expressway are proceeding in many provinces. The development of has been marching in another high level stage. With the expressway forming network and large scale, the social benefit of which has appearing increasingly. It is of important theory value and directive significance by studying on social benefit of regional expressway network, which is favorable for making planning of regional expressway network and advancing the harmony sustainable development of transportation and social economy.
This article hereby is to study Jinan-Dongying expressway so as to provide some decision-making references. Jinan-Dongying expressway starts from the north of Ji nan which extends eastward to Jiyang, Huimin county of Binzhou, Bincheng district of Binzhou, Lijin County of Dongying, connecting to the port of Dongying expressway.This expressway full-length is163.3kilometers,which is the important component of Shandong province highway"5418" of the network, directly connects to Jinan, Binzhou, Dongying and the important industrial and mining enterprises and tourist attractions of the Yellow River Delta, as well as a political、economic and cultural significance highway.
Studies the traffic forecast of Jinan-Dongying expressway with four-stage method,which is the basis for economic evaluation.lt illustrates the idea and method of traffic forecast,ascertaining the Origin Destination (OD) survey method.Secondly,it divides the traffic zone,checking and testing the OD survey of the base year.Finally,it completes the traffic generation,traffic distribution and traffic assignment in order to predict the traffic volume of Jinan-Dongying expressway.
Economic evaluation and social evaluation are done on the Jinan-Dongying expressway. According to the actual situation, choosing the national economic evaluation methods, to analyze and argue the economic benefits of the project. The results of the analysis is feasible, and having strong ability to resist risks. At the same time evaluating three aspects of the social impact analysis, project and social compatibility analysis, and the social risk and countermeasures analysis, demonstrates that the project can promote the development of regional economy, increase local people's employment opportunities,and improve the people's living level.
本文围绕济南至东营高速公路展开研究,以提供决策参考。拟建济南至东营高速公路起自济南市区北部,向东经济阳县,滨州市惠民县、滨城区,东营市利津县,接至东营港疏港高速。全长163.3公里,是山东省高速公路“5418”网的重要组成部分,直接连接了济南、滨州、东营三个地市以及黄河三角洲内重要的工矿企业和旅游景点,是一条具有政治、经济和文化意义的重要公路。
论文采用四阶段法对济南至东营高速公路交通量进行预测,.交通量预测是进行经济评价的基础。阐述了交通量预测的思路和方法,确定了OD交通调查的方法,对交通小区进行了划分,对调查到的基年OD进行了核校检验,在此基础上,完成了交通生成、交通分布、交通分配,对济南至东营高速公路交通量进行了预测。
在交通预测的基础上,对济南至东营高速公路分别进行了经济评价和社会评价。结合济南至东营高速公路项目的实际情况,选用过民经济评价的方法,对项目的经济效益进行了分析、论证,论证该项目的分析结果是可行的,且具有较强的抗风险能力。进行了社会影响的评价、项目与社会的互适性评价、项目的社会风险及对策评价三个方面进行评价,论证表明该工程可以促进区域经济发展,增加当地人民的就业机会,提高人民的生活水平,可以立项建设。实践也证明了这评价的正确性。
The construction and development of expressway has made great achievement in china during past20years. The system of modern road and transportation representative by expressway has promoted the development of economy effectively in this period, as well as efficient service system. As the planning of national expressway implementing, the planning and construction of regional expressway are proceeding in many provinces. The development of has been marching in another high level stage. With the expressway forming network and large scale, the social benefit of which has appearing increasingly. It is of important theory value and directive significance by studying on social benefit of regional expressway network, which is favorable for making planning of regional expressway network and advancing the harmony sustainable development of transportation and social economy.
This article hereby is to study Jinan-Dongying expressway so as to provide some decision-making references. Jinan-Dongying expressway starts from the north of Ji nan which extends eastward to Jiyang, Huimin county of Binzhou, Bincheng district of Binzhou, Lijin County of Dongying, connecting to the port of Dongying expressway.This expressway full-length is163.3kilometers,which is the important component of Shandong province highway"5418" of the network, directly connects to Jinan, Binzhou, Dongying and the important industrial and mining enterprises and tourist attractions of the Yellow River Delta, as well as a political、economic and cultural significance highway.
Studies the traffic forecast of Jinan-Dongying expressway with four-stage method,which is the basis for economic evaluation.lt illustrates the idea and method of traffic forecast,ascertaining the Origin Destination (OD) survey method.Secondly,it divides the traffic zone,checking and testing the OD survey of the base year.Finally,it completes the traffic generation,traffic distribution and traffic assignment in order to predict the traffic volume of Jinan-Dongying expressway.
Economic evaluation and social evaluation are done on the Jinan-Dongying expressway. According to the actual situation, choosing the national economic evaluation methods, to analyze and argue the economic benefits of the project. The results of the analysis is feasible, and having strong ability to resist risks. At the same time evaluating three aspects of the social impact analysis, project and social compatibility analysis, and the social risk and countermeasures analysis, demonstrates that the project can promote the development of regional economy, increase local people's employment opportunities,and improve the people's living level.
引文
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[4]万发祥.高速公路交通量预测组合方法及应用研究[D].长沙：长沙理[大学,2006
[5]李明理.高速公路交通量生成机理与预测方法研究[D].大连：大连理工大学,2010
[6]周俊超.高速公路规划方法研究及应用[D].西安：西北工业大学,2002
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[13]万发祥.高速公路交通量预测组合方法及应用研究[D].长沙：长沙理工大学,2005
[14]戴施华,周欣荣Kalman滤波理论在短时交通预测上的应用[J].哈尔滨商业大学学报,2005,(12)：728-730
[15]曾蔚,王爱勤.灰色理论在高速公路交通量预测中的应用[J].山西交通科技,2003,(8)：72-74
[16]关宏志.非集计模型：交通行为分析的工具[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2004.10
[17]陆化普.交通规划理论与方法(第2版)[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006.12
[18]陆化普,黄海军.交通规划理论研究前沿[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2007.4
[19]陆化普,殷亚峰.规划理论的非集计分析方法及其应用[j].公路交通科技,1996.3：22-28
[20]周春明.费歇尔综合评价在公路网规划中的应用[J].公路交通科技,2003
[21]周伟,高行山.基于模糊理论和神经网络技术的公路网络综合评价方法研究.
[22]李延忠等.DEA方法在公路网综合评价中的应用[J].公路交通科技,2001,4
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[24]朱辉.灰色关联投影法在公路网综合评价中的作用[J].公路交通科技,2005
[25]蒲芳.长江三角洲经济区域公路网综合评价及其分析研究[D].上海：东华大学2003
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[27]骆有隆等.高速公路社会效益评价的神经网络方法[J].武汉理工大学学报,2004,6
[28]周伟,王建军,李继锐.基于人工神经网络的影响高速公路社会效益量化的变量选择方法[J].西安公路交通大学学报,2000,3
[29]李庆瑞.基于多层模糊分析模型的高速公路社会效益评价方法研究[J].中外公路,2005,3
[30]徐淑雨,贾元华.基于灰色系统理论的公路项目社会效益评价[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2006,2
[31]Park, Byungkyu. Hybrid neuron-fuzzy application in short-term freeway traffic volume forecasting[J]. Transportation Research Record. National Research Council.2002,02-2921:190-196
[32]Park, Byungkyu. Clustering based RBF neural network model for short-term freeway traffic volume forecasting[J]. Proceedings of the International Conference on Applications of Advanced Technologies in Transportation Engineering. ASCE, Reston, VA, USA,1998:280-287
[33]Jianmin Xu, Hongbin Yin, Qijie Zhou. Adaptive fuzzy forecast method of freeway traffic volume[J]. Proceedings of the Conference on Traffic and Transportation Studies, ICTTS,1998:591-597
[34]Shuyan Chen; Wei Wang; Gang Ren. A hybrid approach of traffic volume forecasting based on wavelet transform, neural network and Markov model[J]. Systems, Man and Cybernetics. Volumel,10-12 Oct.2005. pages:393-398
[35]Stutz, C; Runkler, T. A. Classification and prediction of road traffic using application-specific fuzzy clustering. Fuzzy Systems. Volume10, Issue3, June 2002. pages:297-308
[36]Konishi, S; Fukuoka, H; Yasanaga, M. Forecasting models for road-vehicle communication traffic in ITS. ITSC2000. MI, USA,2000, pages:202-209
[37]Gines de Rus,Vicente Inglada. Cost-benefit analysis of the high-speed train in spain[J]. The Annals of Regional Science,1997.Vol.31 (2); 175-188
[38]A.Sivathanu Pillcer.k.Srinivasa Rao. Performance monitoring in R&D Project [J]. R&D Management,1996,1
[39]Stewart T.J.A. Critical Survey on the status of Multiple Criteria Decision Marking Theory and Practice[J]. Omega,1992; 164-191
[40]Satty T.L. Modeling Unstructured Decision Problems;The Theory Of Analytical Hierarchies [J]. First Int.conf.on.math. Modeling, Univ Of Missouri, Rolla,1997;90-153
[41]Satty T.L. The Analytic Hierarchy Procss[J]. NewYork,McGraw-Hill,1980;438-451
[42]Satty T.L. Marketing Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process[J]. Management Science, Vol,26(7), 1980; 177-190
[43]Wang M J J,et al.Fuzzy Set Evaluation of Inspection Performance[J]. Intemational Journal of Man-Machine Studies,1991,35(4):587-596
[44]Xu R N, Zhai X Y. Extensions of the Analytic Hierarchy Process in Fuzzy Environment[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1992,52(3):251-258
[45]Eldukair Z A, Ayyub B. Multi-attribute Fuzzy Decisions in Construction strategies[J]. Fuzzy sets and Systems,1992,42 (2):155-165
[46]Rogers S K.Application of Artificial Neural Networks[J]. Proc.Washington:SPIE-the Int.Society for Optical Eng,1991:76-92
[47]Gregory A J.Jackson M C. Evaluation methodologies:a system of use[J]. Journal of Operational Research Society,1992,43(1):19-28
[48]王建军,严宝杰.交通调查与分析(第2版)[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2004.8
[49]孟祥海.高速公路规划设计与管理[M].哈尔滨：哈尔滨工业大学出版社,2006.8：23-44
[50]吴红艳.交通运输与渝东南民族地区经济发展的关系研究[D].重庆：重庆交通大学,2008
[51]高桂凤.区域交通网络布局形态与需求特性研究[D].西安：长安大学,2007
[52]于良.公路交通对区域经济的影响力研究[D].太原：山西大学,2006
[53]耿松涛.我国公路基础设施供给模式转变过程中的制度安排研究[D].天津：南开大学,2005
[54]干春晖.产业经济学[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2006.7：50
[2]杜智民.西部地区公路交通量预测方法研究[D].西安：长安大学,2005
[3]吴忠杰.高速公路建设项目过程分析评价研究[D].北京：北京 工业大学,2004
[4]万发祥.高速公路交通量预测组合方法及应用研究[D].长沙：长沙理[大学,2006
[5]李明理.高速公路交通量生成机理与预测方法研究[D].大连：大连理工大学,2010
[6]周俊超.高速公路规划方法研究及应用[D].西安：西北工业大学,2002
[7]交通部公路管理司中国公路学会公路工程技术标准(JTJ001-97)[S].北京：人民交通出版社,1996
[8]沈志云.交通运输工程学[M].北京：人民交通出版社,1999
[9]李江.交通工程学[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2002：120-200
[10]张国伍.交通运输系统分析[M].成都：西南交通大学出版社,1991
[11]罗莉.基于风险分析的高速公路交通量预测模型[J].中外公路,2007.6
[12]王军,许宏科,蔡晓峰.基于BP神经网络的高速公路动态交通流预测[J].公路交通技术,2007.2
[13]万发祥.高速公路交通量预测组合方法及应用研究[D].长沙：长沙理工大学,2005
[14]戴施华,周欣荣Kalman滤波理论在短时交通预测上的应用[J].哈尔滨商业大学学报,2005,(12)：728-730
[15]曾蔚,王爱勤.灰色理论在高速公路交通量预测中的应用[J].山西交通科技,2003,(8)：72-74
[16]关宏志.非集计模型：交通行为分析的工具[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2004.10
[17]陆化普.交通规划理论与方法(第2版)[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006.12
[18]陆化普,黄海军.交通规划理论研究前沿[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2007.4
[19]陆化普,殷亚峰.规划理论的非集计分析方法及其应用[j].公路交通科技,1996.3：22-28
[20]周春明.费歇尔综合评价在公路网规划中的应用[J].公路交通科技,2003
[21]周伟,高行山.基于模糊理论和神经网络技术的公路网络综合评价方法研究.
[22]李延忠等.DEA方法在公路网综合评价中的应用[J].公路交通科技,2001,4
[23]翟冬梅等.公路网综合评价模型研究[J].河北工业大学学报,2001
[24]朱辉.灰色关联投影法在公路网综合评价中的作用[J].公路交通科技,2005
[25]蒲芳.长江三角洲经济区域公路网综合评价及其分析研究[D].上海：东华大学2003
[26]赵凤山,秋露,胡连杰.高速公路间接社会效益指标体系研究[j].东北公路,1996
[27]骆有隆等.高速公路社会效益评价的神经网络方法[J].武汉理工大学学报,2004,6
[28]周伟,王建军,李继锐.基于人工神经网络的影响高速公路社会效益量化的变量选择方法[J].西安公路交通大学学报,2000,3
[29]李庆瑞.基于多层模糊分析模型的高速公路社会效益评价方法研究[J].中外公路,2005,3
[30]徐淑雨,贾元华.基于灰色系统理论的公路项目社会效益评价[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2006,2
[31]Park, Byungkyu. Hybrid neuron-fuzzy application in short-term freeway traffic volume forecasting[J]. Transportation Research Record. National Research Council.2002,02-2921:190-196
[32]Park, Byungkyu. Clustering based RBF neural network model for short-term freeway traffic volume forecasting[J]. Proceedings of the International Conference on Applications of Advanced Technologies in Transportation Engineering. ASCE, Reston, VA, USA,1998:280-287
[33]Jianmin Xu, Hongbin Yin, Qijie Zhou. Adaptive fuzzy forecast method of freeway traffic volume[J]. Proceedings of the Conference on Traffic and Transportation Studies, ICTTS,1998:591-597
[34]Shuyan Chen; Wei Wang; Gang Ren. A hybrid approach of traffic volume forecasting based on wavelet transform, neural network and Markov model[J]. Systems, Man and Cybernetics. Volumel,10-12 Oct.2005. pages:393-398
[35]Stutz, C; Runkler, T. A. Classification and prediction of road traffic using application-specific fuzzy clustering. Fuzzy Systems. Volume10, Issue3, June 2002. pages:297-308
[36]Konishi, S; Fukuoka, H; Yasanaga, M. Forecasting models for road-vehicle communication traffic in ITS. ITSC2000. MI, USA,2000, pages:202-209
[37]Gines de Rus,Vicente Inglada. Cost-benefit analysis of the high-speed train in spain[J]. The Annals of Regional Science,1997.Vol.31 (2); 175-188
[38]A.Sivathanu Pillcer.k.Srinivasa Rao. Performance monitoring in R&D Project [J]. R&D Management,1996,1
[39]Stewart T.J.A. Critical Survey on the status of Multiple Criteria Decision Marking Theory and Practice[J]. Omega,1992; 164-191
[40]Satty T.L. Modeling Unstructured Decision Problems;The Theory Of Analytical Hierarchies [J]. First Int.conf.on.math. Modeling, Univ Of Missouri, Rolla,1997;90-153
[41]Satty T.L. The Analytic Hierarchy Procss[J]. NewYork,McGraw-Hill,1980;438-451
[42]Satty T.L. Marketing Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process[J]. Management Science, Vol,26(7), 1980; 177-190
[43]Wang M J J,et al.Fuzzy Set Evaluation of Inspection Performance[J]. Intemational Journal of Man-Machine Studies,1991,35(4):587-596
[44]Xu R N, Zhai X Y. Extensions of the Analytic Hierarchy Process in Fuzzy Environment[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1992,52(3):251-258
[45]Eldukair Z A, Ayyub B. Multi-attribute Fuzzy Decisions in Construction strategies[J]. Fuzzy sets and Systems,1992,42 (2):155-165
[46]Rogers S K.Application of Artificial Neural Networks[J]. Proc.Washington:SPIE-the Int.Society for Optical Eng,1991:76-92
[47]Gregory A J.Jackson M C. Evaluation methodologies:a system of use[J]. Journal of Operational Research Society,1992,43(1):19-28
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