中国房地产上市公司综合实力评价研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,伴随着国民经济持续高速发展,作为国民经济重要产业的房地产行业过去三十年里也取得了巨大的发展,尤其是上世纪90年代以来,我国房地产行业发展突飞猛进,房地产行业对国民经济的贡献率越来越大,同时房地产行业又与普通百姓的生活水平的提高息息相关,因此受到社会各界的广泛关注,亦成为重点研究的行业之一。因此,通过科学、公正、客观的评价指标体系和评价方法评估房地产开发企业的综合实力,无论是对房地产开发企业,还是对整个房地产行业的良性竞争与健康发展都具有重要的意义。
中国房地产上市公司只占全国所有开发企业总数的极小比例,却具有极强的行业代表性,能够充分反映整个房地产行业的发展状况及发展趋势。通过评估房地产上市公司的综合实力,客观的反映中国房地产上市公司的整体发展水平和最新动态,有助于房地产上市公司了解自身的相对实力,认清自身在行业中的地位及与领先企业之间的差距；并根据国内外经济发展势态的变化,及时调整经自身营战略,不断取得竞争优势,从而保证自己的生存和发展。同时,通过评估房地产上市公司综合实力,为政府、投资者、消费者等相关参与者提供极具参考价值的企业信息以利于进行相关的决策。如何正确运用现有的信息资料,对房地产上市公司进行科学、公正、客观的评价,客观的反映中国房地产上市公司的整体发展水平和最新动态,这一问题在理论上和现实上日益凸显其必要性与重要性。由于不同的评价指标体系与评价方法都有各自的优缺点,因此,本文旨在构建一套适用于房地产上市公司的综合实力评价体系。
本文首先通过对国内外企业评价理论进行研究,了解国内外关于企业评价理论的的发展历程,并仔细了解了国内外主要的评价体系。本文通过分析各个评价理论与评价方法的优势与不足,构建适合中国房地产上市公司的评价指标体系。指标体系应力求全面、客观、系统、准确地反映房地产上市公司的经营绩效等诸多方面状况,因此,本文采用主客观相结合的方法,认真分析评价体系内涵的和房地产行业的特点,采用合适的数理统计方法进行筛选。首先,从房地产上市公司综合绩效的内涵考虑,结合房地产业与房地产开发企业的特点,选取了基本上能够覆盖上市公司所有信息的91个指标,并按指标的内在涵义分为10类,应用R型聚类分析法对各类指标进行初步筛选,并使用复相关系数和变异系数做进一步修订,最后确定了由26个指标构成的指标体系。
目前房地产上市公司评价方法较多,本文首先对传统的评价方法如BP神经网络理论、灰色关联度理论、数据包络分析及层次分析法等方法进行梳理。在现实中,不同的指标之间通常具有一定的相关性,而且不同的评价指标对评价的结果的影响也是不同的,因此如何消除信息重复对评价结果影响是在实际操作中需要解决的一个问题。因子分析法为解决变量间的信息重复提供了有效地解决方法。本文构建了基于因子分析的评价模型,利用因子分析法研究变量之间的相关关系,通过对变量的相关阵或协方差阵的内部依赖关系的研究,寻找控制所有变量的几个公共因子；并利用因子分析法的特征值累积贡献率进行客观赋予各个公共因子的权重,避免了人为主观的赋予权重。最后可利用回归法得到各个公因子的得分函数,并可求得各个公司的综合得分。
本文的实证研究选取了2009年沪深两市116家主营业务为房地产开发业务或房地产开发业务占主营业务35%以上的上市公司作为实证研究样本,本文实证研究数据均来自于房地产上市公司2009年年报。以2009年度的财务报表作为实例数据的依据,通过应用本文所构建的因子分析模型,对116家房地产上市公司的综合实力进行评估,并给出综合实力前40的上市公司。本文最后对本研究做了小结,并提出了未来研究的需更加深入之处,总结了本研究所存在的不足之处。
Since the reform and opening up,along with the sustained rapid national economics developing,as an important industry in national economy, the real estate industry over the past three decades has made tremendous development, especially since the 90s of last century, rapid development of China's real estate industry, real estate contribution rate of the national economy growing,while the real estate industry has with the improvement of living standards of ordinary people are more and more closely, so attention by all sectors of society, real estate industry also has become one of the key research industry. Therefore,through scientific, fair and objective evaluation index system and evaluation methods to evaluate the Comprehensive strength of the real estate development enterprises,both real estate development enterprise and the entire real estate industry in healthy competition and healthy development are of great significance.
The nation's real estate development listed companies only a very small percentage of total number of enterprises,but has strong industry representation,to fully reflect the development of the entire real estate industry and trends.Assessing the Comprehensive strength of Real estate listed companies could reflect the Comprehensive Chinese real estate development companies' Comprehensive strength and the latest trends,help real estate companies to understand their relative strengths,and understand their own position in the industry between enterprises; and according to domestic and international economic trend,changes their own business strategies and to gain a competitive advantage,thus ensuring their survival and development. At the same time,by assessing the Comprehensive strength of the listed real estate companies,government, investors,consumers could get more great value information of the related corporate in order to make decisions.The proper use of existing information materials of real estate listed companies, through scientific,fair and objective reflect the real estate listed companies in China's Comprehensive development level and the latest developments,this issue is increasingly its necessity and importance in theoretical and practical. Because different methods of evaluation index system and have their own advantages and disadvantages,therefore, this paper aims to build a set for real estate listed companies in the real estate Comprehensive Assessment System.
Firstly, through study the theories of domestic and foreign enterprises evaluation to understand the theory development process of evaluation,and careful understanding of the main evaluation system at home and abroad.We analyzing the various methods of evaluation theory's advantages and disadvantages,building the suitable index system for Chinese real estate listed companies.Index system should strive to be comprehensive,objective, systematically and accurately reflect the operating performance of listed real estate companies and many other aspects of the situation,so this paper the method of combining subjective and objective,using appropriate screening methods of mathematical statistics.First, the performance of listed real estate companies comprehensive content considerations,combined with real estate and real estate development enterprises to the characteristics of the listed companies can basically cover all the information of the 91 indicators, according to the intrinsic meaning of indicators are divided into 10 categories,and then applied cluster analysis of various indicators of the screening,and use the multiple correlation coefficient and coefficient of variation for further amendments,the final set of 26 indicators constitute the index system.
There are lots of evaluation methods to evaluate listed real estate companies,this first to introduced the traditional evaluation methods such as BP neural network theory, Grey theory, data envelopment analysis and analytic hierarchy process and other methods.In reality, different indexes are relative, and different evaluation results of the different evaluation indexes,so how to eliminate duplication of information on the impact evaluation results need to be addressed in a practical problem.Factor analysis method provided effective solutions for duplication of information between the variables.This paper constructs the evaluation model based on factor analysis,using factor analysis of the correlation between variables through the correlation matrix of variables or covariance matrix of the internal dependencies;control all the variables to find some common factors;and using factor analysis to give the weight of each of the common factors.Then regression method can be used by all the common factors of the score function,and can be integrated score obtained for each company.
The empirical study took Shanghai and Shenzhen 116 listed companies which the main business of real estate development business or real estate development business accounts for more than 35%of main business in 2009 as the empirical research samples,empirical research data are from the real estate listed companies Annual Report 2009.Through the application of this factor analysis model constructed on the 116 listed companies in the Comprehensive strength of the real estate assessed and given Comprehensive strength of the top 40 listed companies.Finally, finally summarizes the future research needs more in-depth of the Department, and summarizes the existing research shortcomings.
中国房地产上市公司只占全国所有开发企业总数的极小比例,却具有极强的行业代表性,能够充分反映整个房地产行业的发展状况及发展趋势。通过评估房地产上市公司的综合实力,客观的反映中国房地产上市公司的整体发展水平和最新动态,有助于房地产上市公司了解自身的相对实力,认清自身在行业中的地位及与领先企业之间的差距；并根据国内外经济发展势态的变化,及时调整经自身营战略,不断取得竞争优势,从而保证自己的生存和发展。同时,通过评估房地产上市公司综合实力,为政府、投资者、消费者等相关参与者提供极具参考价值的企业信息以利于进行相关的决策。如何正确运用现有的信息资料,对房地产上市公司进行科学、公正、客观的评价,客观的反映中国房地产上市公司的整体发展水平和最新动态,这一问题在理论上和现实上日益凸显其必要性与重要性。由于不同的评价指标体系与评价方法都有各自的优缺点,因此,本文旨在构建一套适用于房地产上市公司的综合实力评价体系。
本文首先通过对国内外企业评价理论进行研究,了解国内外关于企业评价理论的的发展历程,并仔细了解了国内外主要的评价体系。本文通过分析各个评价理论与评价方法的优势与不足,构建适合中国房地产上市公司的评价指标体系。指标体系应力求全面、客观、系统、准确地反映房地产上市公司的经营绩效等诸多方面状况,因此,本文采用主客观相结合的方法,认真分析评价体系内涵的和房地产行业的特点,采用合适的数理统计方法进行筛选。首先,从房地产上市公司综合绩效的内涵考虑,结合房地产业与房地产开发企业的特点,选取了基本上能够覆盖上市公司所有信息的91个指标,并按指标的内在涵义分为10类,应用R型聚类分析法对各类指标进行初步筛选,并使用复相关系数和变异系数做进一步修订,最后确定了由26个指标构成的指标体系。
目前房地产上市公司评价方法较多,本文首先对传统的评价方法如BP神经网络理论、灰色关联度理论、数据包络分析及层次分析法等方法进行梳理。在现实中,不同的指标之间通常具有一定的相关性,而且不同的评价指标对评价的结果的影响也是不同的,因此如何消除信息重复对评价结果影响是在实际操作中需要解决的一个问题。因子分析法为解决变量间的信息重复提供了有效地解决方法。本文构建了基于因子分析的评价模型,利用因子分析法研究变量之间的相关关系,通过对变量的相关阵或协方差阵的内部依赖关系的研究,寻找控制所有变量的几个公共因子；并利用因子分析法的特征值累积贡献率进行客观赋予各个公共因子的权重,避免了人为主观的赋予权重。最后可利用回归法得到各个公因子的得分函数,并可求得各个公司的综合得分。
本文的实证研究选取了2009年沪深两市116家主营业务为房地产开发业务或房地产开发业务占主营业务35%以上的上市公司作为实证研究样本,本文实证研究数据均来自于房地产上市公司2009年年报。以2009年度的财务报表作为实例数据的依据,通过应用本文所构建的因子分析模型,对116家房地产上市公司的综合实力进行评估,并给出综合实力前40的上市公司。本文最后对本研究做了小结,并提出了未来研究的需更加深入之处,总结了本研究所存在的不足之处。
Since the reform and opening up,along with the sustained rapid national economics developing,as an important industry in national economy, the real estate industry over the past three decades has made tremendous development, especially since the 90s of last century, rapid development of China's real estate industry, real estate contribution rate of the national economy growing,while the real estate industry has with the improvement of living standards of ordinary people are more and more closely, so attention by all sectors of society, real estate industry also has become one of the key research industry. Therefore,through scientific, fair and objective evaluation index system and evaluation methods to evaluate the Comprehensive strength of the real estate development enterprises,both real estate development enterprise and the entire real estate industry in healthy competition and healthy development are of great significance.
The nation's real estate development listed companies only a very small percentage of total number of enterprises,but has strong industry representation,to fully reflect the development of the entire real estate industry and trends.Assessing the Comprehensive strength of Real estate listed companies could reflect the Comprehensive Chinese real estate development companies' Comprehensive strength and the latest trends,help real estate companies to understand their relative strengths,and understand their own position in the industry between enterprises; and according to domestic and international economic trend,changes their own business strategies and to gain a competitive advantage,thus ensuring their survival and development. At the same time,by assessing the Comprehensive strength of the listed real estate companies,government, investors,consumers could get more great value information of the related corporate in order to make decisions.The proper use of existing information materials of real estate listed companies, through scientific,fair and objective reflect the real estate listed companies in China's Comprehensive development level and the latest developments,this issue is increasingly its necessity and importance in theoretical and practical. Because different methods of evaluation index system and have their own advantages and disadvantages,therefore, this paper aims to build a set for real estate listed companies in the real estate Comprehensive Assessment System.
Firstly, through study the theories of domestic and foreign enterprises evaluation to understand the theory development process of evaluation,and careful understanding of the main evaluation system at home and abroad.We analyzing the various methods of evaluation theory's advantages and disadvantages,building the suitable index system for Chinese real estate listed companies.Index system should strive to be comprehensive,objective, systematically and accurately reflect the operating performance of listed real estate companies and many other aspects of the situation,so this paper the method of combining subjective and objective,using appropriate screening methods of mathematical statistics.First, the performance of listed real estate companies comprehensive content considerations,combined with real estate and real estate development enterprises to the characteristics of the listed companies can basically cover all the information of the 91 indicators, according to the intrinsic meaning of indicators are divided into 10 categories,and then applied cluster analysis of various indicators of the screening,and use the multiple correlation coefficient and coefficient of variation for further amendments,the final set of 26 indicators constitute the index system.
There are lots of evaluation methods to evaluate listed real estate companies,this first to introduced the traditional evaluation methods such as BP neural network theory, Grey theory, data envelopment analysis and analytic hierarchy process and other methods.In reality, different indexes are relative, and different evaluation results of the different evaluation indexes,so how to eliminate duplication of information on the impact evaluation results need to be addressed in a practical problem.Factor analysis method provided effective solutions for duplication of information between the variables.This paper constructs the evaluation model based on factor analysis,using factor analysis of the correlation between variables through the correlation matrix of variables or covariance matrix of the internal dependencies;control all the variables to find some common factors;and using factor analysis to give the weight of each of the common factors.Then regression method can be used by all the common factors of the score function,and can be integrated score obtained for each company.
The empirical study took Shanghai and Shenzhen 116 listed companies which the main business of real estate development business or real estate development business accounts for more than 35%of main business in 2009 as the empirical research samples,empirical research data are from the real estate listed companies Annual Report 2009.Through the application of this factor analysis model constructed on the 116 listed companies in the Comprehensive strength of the real estate assessed and given Comprehensive strength of the top 40 listed companies.Finally, finally summarizes the future research needs more in-depth of the Department, and summarizes the existing research shortcomings.
引文
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2 孟建明,企业经营业绩评估问题研究,北京：中国财政经济出版社,2002
3 戴维·杨,EVA与价值管理,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2002
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