中国财政分权与经济增长关系的研究
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摘要
本文主要研究中国改革开放以来的财政分权与经济增长的关系。为了不割断历史研究问题,文章先回顾了从建国到改革开放的财政体制改革及财政分权历程,目的是找出这些改革的内在逻辑。然后文章详细地研究了改革开放以来的“财政包干制”和“分税制”,从理论上分析这些改革给经济带来的正反两方面的影响。接下来,文章在总结以前研究成果的基础上,构建了一个全新的适合中国的财政分权指标DC,其主要特点是在详细论证预算外资金的飞速发展是财政分权的结果的基础上将预算内收支与预算外收支糅合起来。据此,文章首先实证研究了财政分权与经济增长的因果关系,发现改革开放以来财政分权一直都是内生于经济增长的。但是1994年分税制改革后,两者间的因果关系变得不太明确了,这说明分税制使得财政分权不再仅仅是追随经济增长,而是有开始积极影响经济增长的趋势。随后,文章建立计量模型,研究了财政分权对经济增长的影响。结果发现,改革开放以来,财政分权对经济增长有负的作用。重要的是,我们发现分税制改革对财政分权与经济增长之间的关系有显著的影响。分税制改革前,财政分权对经济增长的影响是负的,而分税制改革后财政分权对经济增长有正的作用。这是因为分税制改革使得原来的财政分权变得规范化、科学化与公正化,使得财政分权的积极作用得到发挥。文章初步探讨了最优财政分权度的问题,这必然要涉及到的问题是:应该依据什么样的标准去选择最优财政分权度?对此,文章提供了四种研究角度。此外,文章还发现财政分权与经济增长之间存在显著的非线性关系。据此,得到改革开放以来至今的最优财政分权程度是66.7%。综合上述结果,我们得到一个重要结论:中国的财政分权改革不是一个进一步分权或集权的简单问题,而应该是朝着完备的财政分权制度迈进。与此同时还要在其他相关领域也进行改革,以使财政分权的积极作用得到发挥。
This paper is devoted to research the relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth in China since its implementation of reform and opening policy. In order to keep the consistency with the development of finance reforms, starting from 1949, we first reviewed the process of fiscal decentralization from 1949 to 1978, the purpose of which is to find the inherent logic of these reforms. Then the article studied the" Fiscal Responsibility System (FRS)" and "Tax Sharing System (TSS)" in detail, and analysed the influence of both sides that these reforms bring to economy theoretically.Based on the research results before summarizing, we structured a brand-new and suitable for Chinese fiscal decentralization indicator DC, which was characterize by mixing budgetary revenue or expenditure and extra-budgetary revenue or expenditure on the basis of proving result of fiscal decentralization that development was at full speed of the extra-budgetary fund. We first study the causal relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth with Granger Causality Test, and find fiscal decentralization has been endogenous in economic growth since 1978. But there is not a significant Granger causality between them since 1994, which means that the reform of Tax Sharing System makes fiscal decentralization no longer only follow the economic growth, but begin to have a positive impact on economic growth. Then we build a model, and find fiscal decentralization have a negative effect on economic growth since 1978. Surprisingly, the important discovery is that the reform of Tax Sharing System largely changes the relationship, fiscal decentralization has a significant negative effect on economic growth before 1994 while a significant positive effect after 1994, which is mainly because that the reform of Tax Sharing System standardized the fiscal decentralization to some extent. We also discuss elementarily the optimal level of fiscal decentralization and the criterions by which the optimal level of fiscal decentralization is judged. In addition,
we find there is a non-linear relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth, by which we concluded that 66.7% is the optimal level of fiscal decentralization since 1978. Based all the conclusions above, we follow that it's not a simple problem of only further decentralization or centralization for China's fiscal reform, but to standardize or further standardize the fiscal decentralization so that it has a positive effect on economic growth.
This paper is devoted to research the relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth in China since its implementation of reform and opening policy. In order to keep the consistency with the development of finance reforms, starting from 1949, we first reviewed the process of fiscal decentralization from 1949 to 1978, the purpose of which is to find the inherent logic of these reforms. Then the article studied the" Fiscal Responsibility System (FRS)" and "Tax Sharing System (TSS)" in detail, and analysed the influence of both sides that these reforms bring to economy theoretically.Based on the research results before summarizing, we structured a brand-new and suitable for Chinese fiscal decentralization indicator DC, which was characterize by mixing budgetary revenue or expenditure and extra-budgetary revenue or expenditure on the basis of proving result of fiscal decentralization that development was at full speed of the extra-budgetary fund. We first study the causal relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth with Granger Causality Test, and find fiscal decentralization has been endogenous in economic growth since 1978. But there is not a significant Granger causality between them since 1994, which means that the reform of Tax Sharing System makes fiscal decentralization no longer only follow the economic growth, but begin to have a positive impact on economic growth. Then we build a model, and find fiscal decentralization have a negative effect on economic growth since 1978. Surprisingly, the important discovery is that the reform of Tax Sharing System largely changes the relationship, fiscal decentralization has a significant negative effect on economic growth before 1994 while a significant positive effect after 1994, which is mainly because that the reform of Tax Sharing System standardized the fiscal decentralization to some extent. We also discuss elementarily the optimal level of fiscal decentralization and the criterions by which the optimal level of fiscal decentralization is judged. In addition,
we find there is a non-linear relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth, by which we concluded that 66.7% is the optimal level of fiscal decentralization since 1978. Based all the conclusions above, we follow that it's not a simple problem of only further decentralization or centralization for China's fiscal reform, but to standardize or further standardize the fiscal decentralization so that it has a positive effect on economic growth.
引文
1、林毅夫、蔡昉、李周,《中国的奇迹:发展战略与经济改革》[M],上海三联书店、上海人民出版社1999年版。
2、胡书东,《经济发展中的中央与地方关系——中国财政制度变迁研究》[M],上海三联书店、上海人民出版社,2001年8月第1版。
3、王绍光,《分权的底限》[M],中国计划出版社,1997年10月第1版。
4、邹继础,《中国财政制度改革之探索》[M],社会科学文献出版社,2003年5月第1版。
5、贾康、阎坤,《中国财政:转轨与变革》[M],上海远东出版社,2000年8月第1版。
6、何帆,《为市场经济立宪——当代中国的财政问题》[M],今日中国出版社,1998年10月第1版。
7、寇铁军,《中央与地方财政关系研究》[M],东北财经大学出版社,1996年12月第1版。
8、许正中、苑广睿、孙国英,《财政分权:理论基础与实践》[M],社会科学文献出版社,2002年9月第1版。
9、乔宝云,《增长与均等的取舍——中国财政分权政策研究》[M],人民出版社,2002年9月第1版。
10、王雪标,王志强,《财政政策、金融政策与协整分析》[M], 东北财经大学出版社,2001年。
11、高培勇、温来成,《市场化进程中的中国财政运行机制》[M],中国人民大学出版社,2001年10月第1版。
12、魏礼群、李金早,《市场经济中的中央与地方经济关系》[M],中国经济出版社,1994年9月第1版。
13、安体富、梁鹏、岳树民,《公共财政学》[M],首都经济贸易大学出版社,2003年9月第1版。
14、储敏伟、杨君昌,《财政学》[M],高等教育出版社,2000年8月第1版。
15、邓英淘、姚钢、徐笑波、薛玉炜,《中国预算外资金分析》[M],中国人民大学出版社,1990年6月第1版。
16、林毅夫、刘志强,《中国的财政分权与经济增长》[J],北京大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2000年第4期。
17、张晏、龚六堂,《分税制改革、财政分权与中国经济增长》,复旦大学现代经济学系列讲座第24期,2004年3月。http://www.cces.cn/cces/shownews.asp?newsid=385。
18、杨雷,《财政分权与非正式财政收入的发展》,第三届中国经济学年会入选论文,公共经济学方向,2003年。http://www.cenet.org.cn/cn/Read News.asp?NewsID=13822。
19、陶然,《财政分权和经济转轨》,经济观察报[N],2003年2月11日。
20、王卫星,《中国分税制财政体制及其运行情况》[J],中国经贸导刊,2000年第12期。
21、郭灿鹏,《中国财政体制(1949—1979)变迁的效率》[J],改革,2001.02
22、Kerk L. Phillips and Gary Woller, "Does Fiscal decentralization lead to economic growth?", Working Paper, Number97-7, September, 1-13.
23、Hamid Davoodi and Heng-fu Zou, "Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Study", JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS, 43, 244-257, 1998.
24、Danyang xie, Heng-fu Zou and Hamid Davoodi, "Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Growth in the United States ", JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS, 45, 228-239, 1999.
25、Nobuo Akai and Masayo Sakata, "Fiscal decentralization contributes to economic growth: evidence from state-level cross-section data for the United States", JOURNAL OFURBANECONOMICS, 52, 93-108, 2002.
26、Jorge Martinez-Vazquez and Robert M. McNab, "Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Growth", World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31 (9), pages 1597-1616, 9. http://isp-aysps.gsu.edu/papers/ispwp0101.pdf..
27、Yingyi Qian and Barry R. Weingast, " Regional Decentralization and Fiscal Incentives Chinese style", Stanford University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 99013. http://www-econ. Stanford. edu/ econ/workp/.
28、 Tao Zhang and Heng-fu Zou , "Fiscal decentralization, public spending, and economic growth in China.", JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS, 67 (1999) 228-239.
29、 Robert D.Ebel and Serdar Yilmaz , " CONCEPT OF FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION AND WORDWIDE OVERVIEW " , International Symposium, Quebec Commission on Fiscal Imbalance, September 13 and 14, 2001. http://www.desequilibrefiscal.gouv.qc.ca/en/pdf/ebel.pdf.
2、胡书东,《经济发展中的中央与地方关系——中国财政制度变迁研究》[M],上海三联书店、上海人民出版社,2001年8月第1版。
3、王绍光,《分权的底限》[M],中国计划出版社,1997年10月第1版。
4、邹继础,《中国财政制度改革之探索》[M],社会科学文献出版社,2003年5月第1版。
5、贾康、阎坤,《中国财政:转轨与变革》[M],上海远东出版社,2000年8月第1版。
6、何帆,《为市场经济立宪——当代中国的财政问题》[M],今日中国出版社,1998年10月第1版。
7、寇铁军,《中央与地方财政关系研究》[M],东北财经大学出版社,1996年12月第1版。
8、许正中、苑广睿、孙国英,《财政分权:理论基础与实践》[M],社会科学文献出版社,2002年9月第1版。
9、乔宝云,《增长与均等的取舍——中国财政分权政策研究》[M],人民出版社,2002年9月第1版。
10、王雪标,王志强,《财政政策、金融政策与协整分析》[M], 东北财经大学出版社,2001年。
11、高培勇、温来成,《市场化进程中的中国财政运行机制》[M],中国人民大学出版社,2001年10月第1版。
12、魏礼群、李金早,《市场经济中的中央与地方经济关系》[M],中国经济出版社,1994年9月第1版。
13、安体富、梁鹏、岳树民,《公共财政学》[M],首都经济贸易大学出版社,2003年9月第1版。
14、储敏伟、杨君昌,《财政学》[M],高等教育出版社,2000年8月第1版。
15、邓英淘、姚钢、徐笑波、薛玉炜,《中国预算外资金分析》[M],中国人民大学出版社,1990年6月第1版。
16、林毅夫、刘志强,《中国的财政分权与经济增长》[J],北京大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2000年第4期。
17、张晏、龚六堂,《分税制改革、财政分权与中国经济增长》,复旦大学现代经济学系列讲座第24期,2004年3月。http://www.cces.cn/cces/shownews.asp?newsid=385。
18、杨雷,《财政分权与非正式财政收入的发展》,第三届中国经济学年会入选论文,公共经济学方向,2003年。http://www.cenet.org.cn/cn/Read News.asp?NewsID=13822。
19、陶然,《财政分权和经济转轨》,经济观察报[N],2003年2月11日。
20、王卫星,《中国分税制财政体制及其运行情况》[J],中国经贸导刊,2000年第12期。
21、郭灿鹏,《中国财政体制(1949—1979)变迁的效率》[J],改革,2001.02
22、Kerk L. Phillips and Gary Woller, "Does Fiscal decentralization lead to economic growth?", Working Paper, Number97-7, September, 1-13.
23、Hamid Davoodi and Heng-fu Zou, "Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Study", JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS, 43, 244-257, 1998.
24、Danyang xie, Heng-fu Zou and Hamid Davoodi, "Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Growth in the United States ", JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS, 45, 228-239, 1999.
25、Nobuo Akai and Masayo Sakata, "Fiscal decentralization contributes to economic growth: evidence from state-level cross-section data for the United States", JOURNAL OFURBANECONOMICS, 52, 93-108, 2002.
26、Jorge Martinez-Vazquez and Robert M. McNab, "Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Growth", World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31 (9), pages 1597-1616, 9. http://isp-aysps.gsu.edu/papers/ispwp0101.pdf..
27、Yingyi Qian and Barry R. Weingast, " Regional Decentralization and Fiscal Incentives Chinese style", Stanford University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 99013. http://www-econ. Stanford. edu/ econ/workp/.
28、 Tao Zhang and Heng-fu Zou , "Fiscal decentralization, public spending, and economic growth in China.", JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS, 67 (1999) 228-239.
29、 Robert D.Ebel and Serdar Yilmaz , " CONCEPT OF FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION AND WORDWIDE OVERVIEW " , International Symposium, Quebec Commission on Fiscal Imbalance, September 13 and 14, 2001. http://www.desequilibrefiscal.gouv.qc.ca/en/pdf/ebel.pdf.
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