衡水市1961～2015年极端降水和干旱的时空变化特征
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摘要
基于河北省衡水市11个气象站点1961～2015年逐日降水数据,采用StarDex极端降水指数和SPEI干旱指数对全市开展极端降水和干旱时空变化规律研究。结果表明:(1)最大连续无雨日(PXCDD)与平均干旱期长度(PDSAV)随时间呈上升趋势,而最大连续有雨日(PXCWD)和年降水量则下降。(2)从空间分布来看,极端降水指数反映西部和北部的干旱化趋势较明显。(3)SPEI指数变化表明,1990年代后干旱次数增加,夏、冬季和年序列均有向干旱发展的趋向;西部和北部发生干旱的频率较高。(4)极端降水指数和SPEI指数存在较好的相关性;SPI和SPEI在12个月尺度上有较好的一致性,但在对干旱程度的判定上有偏差;不同等级的干旱年份中,极端降水指数和SPI指数也有较好的表现。总的来看,衡水市干旱渐趋严重,且呈夏、冬两季多发,西部和北部受灾严重的特征,应在水资源规划与管理中做好水资源配置。
Based on the daily precipitation data of 11 meteorological stations in Hengshui City, Hebei Province from 1961 to 2015, StarDex extreme precipitation index and SPEI drought index were used to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation and drought in the city. The results showed that:(1) the Max no. consecutive dry days(PXCDD) and the mean of dry spell lengths(PDSAV) show an upward trend, while Max no. consecutive wet days(PXCWD) and annual precipitation decreased.(2) From the perspective of spatial distribution, there was a trend toward drought in the western and northern regions.(3) SPEI indicated a significant increase in the occurrence number of drought after the 1990 s. Annual, summer and winter series tend to develop toward drought. Droughts occured more frequently in the west and north.(4) The extreme precipitation index correlated well with SPEI. SPI and SPEI had good consistency at the 12-month scale, but there were differences on the degree of drought. The extreme precipitation index and SPI performed well in typical drought years of different degrees. In general, the drought in Hengshui City was becoming more and more severe, which was characterized by frequent occurrence in summer and winter, and severe disaster in the west and north.
Based on the daily precipitation data of 11 meteorological stations in Hengshui City, Hebei Province from 1961 to 2015, StarDex extreme precipitation index and SPEI drought index were used to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation and drought in the city. The results showed that:(1) the Max no. consecutive dry days(PXCDD) and the mean of dry spell lengths(PDSAV) show an upward trend, while Max no. consecutive wet days(PXCWD) and annual precipitation decreased.(2) From the perspective of spatial distribution, there was a trend toward drought in the western and northern regions.(3) SPEI indicated a significant increase in the occurrence number of drought after the 1990 s. Annual, summer and winter series tend to develop toward drought. Droughts occured more frequently in the west and north.(4) The extreme precipitation index correlated well with SPEI. SPI and SPEI had good consistency at the 12-month scale, but there were differences on the degree of drought. The extreme precipitation index and SPI performed well in typical drought years of different degrees. In general, the drought in Hengshui City was becoming more and more severe, which was characterized by frequent occurrence in summer and winter, and severe disaster in the west and north.
引文
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[14] VICENTE-SERRANO S M,BEGUERíA S,LóPEZ-MORENO J I.A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J].Journal of Climate,2010,23(7):1696-1718.
[15] THORNTHWAITE C W.An approach toward a rational classification of climate[J].Geographical Review,1948,38(1):55-94.
[2] 陈昌春,张余庆,王腊春,等.基于RClimDex模型的江西省极端降水时空变化研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2013(11):41-45.CHEN C C,ZHANG Q Y,WANG L C,et al.Research on the change of extreme precipitation in Jiangxi Province based on RClimDex Model[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2013(11):41-45.
[3] 王冀,江志红,严明良,等.1960-2005年长江中下游极端降水指数变化特征分析[J].气象科学,2008(4):384-388.WANG J,JIANG Z H,YAN M L,et al.Trends of extreme precipitation indices in the mid-lower Yangtze River Valley of China during 1960-2005[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2008(4):384-388.
[4] 胡彩虹,王纪军,何福力.基于STARDEX核心指数的黄河流域极端气候时空分布形态研究[J].水资源研究,2013,2(6):337-351.HU C H,WANG J J,HE F L.Research on time and space distribution of the Yellow River Basin of extreme weather based on STARDEX core index[J].Journal of Water Resources Research,2013,2(6):337-351.
[5] 王炳钦,江源,董满宇,等.1961-2010年北方半干旱区极端降水时空变化[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(5):913-920.WANG B Q,JIANG Y,DONG M Y,et al.Spatiotemporal variations of extreme precipitation in the semiarid Region in North China during the Period of 1961-2010[J].Arid Zone Research,2016,33(5):913-920.
[6] HAYLOCK M R,PETERSON T C,ALVES L M,et al.Trends in total and extreme South American rainfall in 1960-2000 and links with sea surface temperature[J].Journal of Climate,2006,19(8):1490-1512.
[7] 周丹,张勃,任培贵,等.基于标准化降水蒸散指数的陕西省近50a干旱特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(4):677-688.ZHOU D,ZHANG B,REN P G,et al.Analysis of drought characteristics of Shaanxi Province in recent 50 years based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J].Journal of Natural Resource,2014,29(4):677-688.
[8] 赵林,于家烁,薄岩,等.基于SPEI的湖北省近52年干旱时空格局变化[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(7):1230-1237.ZHAO L,YU J S,BO Yan,et al.Temporal and spatial distribution of drought in Hubei Province during 1961-2012 based on SPEI[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2015,24(7):1230-1237.
[9] 周扬,李宁,吉中会,等.基于SPI指数的1981-2010年内蒙古地区干旱时空分布特征[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(10):1694-1706.ZHOU Y,LI N,JI Z H,et al.Temporal and spatial patterns of droughts based on standard precipitation index (SPI) in inner Mongolia during 1981-2010[J].Journal of Natural Resource,2013,28(10):1694-1706.
[10] 赵平伟,郭萍,李立印,等.SPEI及SPI指数在滇西南地区干旱演变中的对比分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(1):142-149.ZHAO P W,GUO P,LI L Y,et al.Comparison of SPEI and SPI index on account of the droughts of the Southwest Yunnan Area[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2017,26(1):142-149.
[11] MEZA F J.Recent trends and ENSO influence on droughts in Northern Chile:An application of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J].Weather & Climate Extremes,2013,1(1):51-58.
[12] HERNANDEZ E A,UDDAMERI V.Standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI)-based drought assessment in semi-arid south Texas[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2014,71(6):2491-2501.
[13] 张金龙,刘学锋,于长文.河北省干旱分布特征和变化规律分析[J].干旱区研究,2012,29(1):41-46.ZHANG J L,LIU X F,YU C W.Analysis on distribution and variation of drought in Hebei Province[J].Arid Zone Research,2012,29(1):41-46.
[14] VICENTE-SERRANO S M,BEGUERíA S,LóPEZ-MORENO J I.A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J].Journal of Climate,2010,23(7):1696-1718.
[15] THORNTHWAITE C W.An approach toward a rational classification of climate[J].Geographical Review,1948,38(1):55-94.
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