基于核密度估算的大都市耕地数量空间分布特征分析——以天津市为例
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摘要
[目的]耕地资源是人类生存和发展的基础性资源,通过研究大都市耕地空间分布特征,为耕地保护和优化耕地空间布局提供科学依据。[方法]文章利用土地利用现状矢量数据在ArcGIS 10. 1中提取出耕地要素图层,采用重心模型确定城市重心位置,运用象限分析法把天津市分成8个方位,分析天津市的耕地空间数量分布特征,利用核密度估算法计算天津市耕地数量的核密度值,继而采用自然断点法进行核密度分区来确定天津市耕地密度等级,分析的耕地空间聚集分布特征,总结出影响耕地空间分布的主导因素,针对性地提出耕地保护建议。[结果](1)耕地核密度变化范围为0～86. 87 point/km~2,核密度值由小变大,耕地整体呈由分散向聚集状态演变,天津市主要是以中低密度区(36. 525 696万hm~2)为主,整个区域内的耕地呈分散状态分布;(2)中心城区无耕地可用,耕地核密度等级结构单一;近郊区的耕地核密度等级结构复杂多样且变化趋势相似,耕地聚集程度适中;远郊区的耕地面积较多,耕地核密度等级结构不同,耕地聚集程度相差较大。(3)天津市耕地分布主要受到地形地势、土壤、经济发展、城镇扩展、土地相关规划及政策等多方面因素影响。[结论]天津市耕地在各区各方位的空间分布呈现不同特征,借助核密度估算法能更加细致深入地研究大都市耕地在不同空间的聚集程度,对促进耕地空间优化布局与合理利用具有重要的研究意义。
Cultivated land resources are the basic resources for human survival and development. By studying the spatial distribution characteristics of cultivated land in metropolitan areas,this paper provides scientific basis for protecting and optimizing the spatial distribution of cultivated land. It used the vector data of land use status to extract the cultivated land element layer by ArcGIS 10. 1,applied gravity center model to determine the position of city gravity center,and it used quadrant analysis method to divide Tianjin into eight orientations,and analyzed the spatial distribution characteristics of cultivated land,then it utilized nuclear density estimation method to calculate the number of cultivated land,exploited Jenks for dividing the nuclear density to determine the density grade of cultivated land,analyzed the spatial distribution characteristics of cultivated land,summarized the dominant factors affecting the spatial distribution of cultivated land,put forward specific proposals for cultivated land protection. The results showed that: (1) The change range of nuclear density of cultivated land was 0 ～ 86. 87 point/km~2,the nuclear density value increased from small to large,the whole cultivated land changed from scattered to aggregated,the main area of Tianjin was low-density zone (365 256. 96 hm~2),and the cultivated land in the whole area was scattered. (2) There was no arable land available in central urban area,and the nuclear density grading structure of arable land was single; the nuclear density grading structure of arable land in the suburbs was complex and diverse,and the change trend was similar,and the degree of arable land aggregation was moderate; the arable land area in the outer suburbs was more,the nuclear density grading structure of arable land was different,and the degree of arable land aggregation was quite different. (3) The distribution of cultivated land in Tianjin was mainly affected by many factors,such as topography,soil,economic development,urban expansion,land-related planning and policies. The spatial distribution of cultivated land in Tianjin showed different characteristics in different areas,with the help of nuclear density estimation method,the cultivated land aggregation degree of metropolis in different spaces could be studied more carefully and deeply,it was of great significance to promote the optimal spatial distribution and rational utilization of cultivated land.
Cultivated land resources are the basic resources for human survival and development. By studying the spatial distribution characteristics of cultivated land in metropolitan areas,this paper provides scientific basis for protecting and optimizing the spatial distribution of cultivated land. It used the vector data of land use status to extract the cultivated land element layer by ArcGIS 10. 1,applied gravity center model to determine the position of city gravity center,and it used quadrant analysis method to divide Tianjin into eight orientations,and analyzed the spatial distribution characteristics of cultivated land,then it utilized nuclear density estimation method to calculate the number of cultivated land,exploited Jenks for dividing the nuclear density to determine the density grade of cultivated land,analyzed the spatial distribution characteristics of cultivated land,summarized the dominant factors affecting the spatial distribution of cultivated land,put forward specific proposals for cultivated land protection. The results showed that: (1) The change range of nuclear density of cultivated land was 0 ～ 86. 87 point/km~2,the nuclear density value increased from small to large,the whole cultivated land changed from scattered to aggregated,the main area of Tianjin was low-density zone (365 256. 96 hm~2),and the cultivated land in the whole area was scattered. (2) There was no arable land available in central urban area,and the nuclear density grading structure of arable land was single; the nuclear density grading structure of arable land in the suburbs was complex and diverse,and the change trend was similar,and the degree of arable land aggregation was moderate; the arable land area in the outer suburbs was more,the nuclear density grading structure of arable land was different,and the degree of arable land aggregation was quite different. (3) The distribution of cultivated land in Tianjin was mainly affected by many factors,such as topography,soil,economic development,urban expansion,land-related planning and policies. The spatial distribution of cultivated land in Tianjin showed different characteristics in different areas,with the help of nuclear density estimation method,the cultivated land aggregation degree of metropolis in different spaces could be studied more carefully and deeply,it was of great significance to promote the optimal spatial distribution and rational utilization of cultivated land.
引文
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[2]李婧怡,林坚,刘松雪.2014年土地科学研究重点进展评述及2015年展望---土地利用与规划分报告.中国土地科学,2015,29(3):3-12.
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[7]陈学渊,唐华俊,吴永常.耕地格局时空动态变化过程和差异分析---以浙江安吉为例.中国农业科学,2015,48(21):4302-4313.
[8]赵宏波,马延吉.东北粮食主产区耕地生态安全的时空格局及障碍因子---以吉林省为例.应用生态学报,2014,25(2):515-524.
[9]郭杰,欧名豪,刘琼.江苏省耕地资源动态变化及驱动力研究.长江流域资源与环境,2009,18(2):139-145.
[10]车明亮,聂宜民,刘登民.区域耕地数量变化预测方法的对比研究.中国土地科学,2010,24(5):13-18.
[11]刘轩,牛海鹏,董国权,等.基于Kohonen网络和DEA交叉评价耕地利用效率聚类分析.浙江农业学报,2015,27(9):1652-1658.
[12]李晓赛,赵丽,杨胜利,等.保定市耕地集约利用时空变异分析.水土保持研究,2014,21(1):229-233,239.
[13]付国珍,摆万奇.耕地质量评价研究进展及发展趋势.资源科学,2015,37(2):226-236.
[14]陈展图,杨庆媛.中国耕地休耕制度基本框架构建.中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(12):126-136.
[15]宋伟,陈百明,刘琳.中国耕地土壤重金属污染概况.水土保持研究,2013,20(2):293-298.
[16]吴大放,刘艳艳,王朝晖.基于Logistic-CA的珠海市耕地变化机理分析.经济地理,2014,34(1):140-147.
[17]任平,吴涛,周介铭.基于GIS和空间自相关模型的耕地空间分布格局及变化特征分析---以成都市龙泉驿区为例.中国生态农业学报,2016,24(3):325-334.
[18]阳文锐.北京城市景观格局时空变化及驱动力.生态学报,2015,35(13):4357-4366.
[19]高凯,周志翔,杨玉萍.基于Ripley K函数的武汉市景观格局特征及其变化.应用生态学报,2010,21(10):2621-2626.
[20]杨银峰,石培基,吴燕芳.灰色系统理论模型在耕地需求量预测中的应用.统计与决策,2011(9):159-161.
[21]孙耀鹏,涂维亮.基于DEA模型的荆州市耕地资源利用效率分析.中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(8):93-97,104.
[22]曹银贵,周伟,王静,等.基于主成分分析与层次分析的三峡库区耕地集约利用对比.农业工程学报,2010,26(4):291-296.
[23]车明亮,聂宜民,刘登民,等.区域耕地数量变化预测方法的对比研究.中国土地科学,2010,24(5):13-18.
[24]谢俊奇,蔡玉梅,郑振源,等.基于改进的农业生态区法的中国耕地粮食生产潜力评价.中国土地科学,2004(4):31-37.
[25]张锐,郑华伟,刘友兆.基于PSR模型的耕地生态安全物元分析评价.生态学报,2013,33(16):5090-5100.
[26]天津市统计局.天津统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,2014.
[27]郭丽英,李刚.环渤海地区城镇化进程中耕地面积及其重心转移格局分析.中国农业资源与区划,2013,34(4):32-36.
[28]张晓娟,周启刚,国洪磊.基于GIS和DEA的城镇建设用地扩展经济效益评价---以重庆市南岸区为例.资源开发与市场,2017,33(1):14-19.
[29]曹哲铭,尹立子.浅析核密度估计方法,https://www.xzbu.com/1/view-6480105.htm.2014-07-30/2018-9-17.
[30]员永生,常庆瑞,杨为民.一种快速非参数核密度模型及其应用.兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2009,45(2):132-137.
[31]李鹏山,吕雅慧,张超.基于核密度估计的京津冀地区耕地破碎化分析.农业机械学报,2016,47(5):281-287.
[32]蔡雪娇,吴志峰,程炯.基于核密度估算的路网格局与景观破碎化分析.生态学杂志,2012,31(1):158-164.
[33]武增海,李涛.高新技术开发区综合绩效空间分布研究---基于自然断点法的分析.统计与信息论坛,2013,28(3):82-88.
[2]李婧怡,林坚,刘松雪.2014年土地科学研究重点进展评述及2015年展望---土地利用与规划分报告.中国土地科学,2015,29(3):3-12.
[3]吴大放,刘艳艳,刘毅华.耕地生态安全评价研究展望.中国生态农业学报,2015,23(3):257-267.
[4]张国平,刘纪远,张增祥.近10年来中国耕地资源的时空变化分析.地理学报,2003,58(3):323-332.
[5]Skinner M W,Kuhn R G,Joseph A E.Agricultural land protection in China:A case study of local governance in Zhejiang Province.land Use Policy,2001,18(4):329-340.
[6]Kline J D,Alig R J.Does land use planning slow the conversion of forest and farmlands.Growth and Change,1999,30(1):3-22.
[7]陈学渊,唐华俊,吴永常.耕地格局时空动态变化过程和差异分析---以浙江安吉为例.中国农业科学,2015,48(21):4302-4313.
[8]赵宏波,马延吉.东北粮食主产区耕地生态安全的时空格局及障碍因子---以吉林省为例.应用生态学报,2014,25(2):515-524.
[9]郭杰,欧名豪,刘琼.江苏省耕地资源动态变化及驱动力研究.长江流域资源与环境,2009,18(2):139-145.
[10]车明亮,聂宜民,刘登民.区域耕地数量变化预测方法的对比研究.中国土地科学,2010,24(5):13-18.
[11]刘轩,牛海鹏,董国权,等.基于Kohonen网络和DEA交叉评价耕地利用效率聚类分析.浙江农业学报,2015,27(9):1652-1658.
[12]李晓赛,赵丽,杨胜利,等.保定市耕地集约利用时空变异分析.水土保持研究,2014,21(1):229-233,239.
[13]付国珍,摆万奇.耕地质量评价研究进展及发展趋势.资源科学,2015,37(2):226-236.
[14]陈展图,杨庆媛.中国耕地休耕制度基本框架构建.中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(12):126-136.
[15]宋伟,陈百明,刘琳.中国耕地土壤重金属污染概况.水土保持研究,2013,20(2):293-298.
[16]吴大放,刘艳艳,王朝晖.基于Logistic-CA的珠海市耕地变化机理分析.经济地理,2014,34(1):140-147.
[17]任平,吴涛,周介铭.基于GIS和空间自相关模型的耕地空间分布格局及变化特征分析---以成都市龙泉驿区为例.中国生态农业学报,2016,24(3):325-334.
[18]阳文锐.北京城市景观格局时空变化及驱动力.生态学报,2015,35(13):4357-4366.
[19]高凯,周志翔,杨玉萍.基于Ripley K函数的武汉市景观格局特征及其变化.应用生态学报,2010,21(10):2621-2626.
[20]杨银峰,石培基,吴燕芳.灰色系统理论模型在耕地需求量预测中的应用.统计与决策,2011(9):159-161.
[21]孙耀鹏,涂维亮.基于DEA模型的荆州市耕地资源利用效率分析.中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(8):93-97,104.
[22]曹银贵,周伟,王静,等.基于主成分分析与层次分析的三峡库区耕地集约利用对比.农业工程学报,2010,26(4):291-296.
[23]车明亮,聂宜民,刘登民,等.区域耕地数量变化预测方法的对比研究.中国土地科学,2010,24(5):13-18.
[24]谢俊奇,蔡玉梅,郑振源,等.基于改进的农业生态区法的中国耕地粮食生产潜力评价.中国土地科学,2004(4):31-37.
[25]张锐,郑华伟,刘友兆.基于PSR模型的耕地生态安全物元分析评价.生态学报,2013,33(16):5090-5100.
[26]天津市统计局.天津统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,2014.
[27]郭丽英,李刚.环渤海地区城镇化进程中耕地面积及其重心转移格局分析.中国农业资源与区划,2013,34(4):32-36.
[28]张晓娟,周启刚,国洪磊.基于GIS和DEA的城镇建设用地扩展经济效益评价---以重庆市南岸区为例.资源开发与市场,2017,33(1):14-19.
[29]曹哲铭,尹立子.浅析核密度估计方法,https://www.xzbu.com/1/view-6480105.htm.2014-07-30/2018-9-17.
[30]员永生,常庆瑞,杨为民.一种快速非参数核密度模型及其应用.兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2009,45(2):132-137.
[31]李鹏山,吕雅慧,张超.基于核密度估计的京津冀地区耕地破碎化分析.农业机械学报,2016,47(5):281-287.
[32]蔡雪娇,吴志峰,程炯.基于核密度估算的路网格局与景观破碎化分析.生态学杂志,2012,31(1):158-164.
[33]武增海,李涛.高新技术开发区综合绩效空间分布研究---基于自然断点法的分析.统计与信息论坛,2013,28(3):82-88.
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