工业专业化、多样化集聚与碳排放
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摘要
本文拓展STIRPAT理论模型,对工业专业化、多样化集聚与碳排放之间的关系进行理论分析,并以2004～2017年全国281个地级及以上城市为样本进行因果关系推断。研究发现:(1)工业集聚对碳排放的影响存在即期效应、预期效应和溢出效应。专业化集聚程度降低和多样化集聚程度提高有利于本地及其邻近地区碳排放量的控制与减排;(2)多样化集聚与碳排放之间存在正向的自我强化机制,而专业化集聚与碳排放之间存在负向的自我强化机制。基于上述结论,本文提出应加快完善全国性的碳排放交易体系,走多样化发展道路以及加强地区间碳排放联合防治等政策建议。
The relationship between specialized,diversified industrial agglomeration and carbon emission is analyzed theoretically through expanding the basic STIRPAT model and then the causal inferences are conducted with panel data of 281 cities in china during 2004 to 2017.The study finds that:(1)the impact of industrial agglomeration on carbon emissions has simultaneous,anticipatory and spillover effects.Decreasing the degree of specialization agglomeration and increasing the degree of diversification agglomeration are conducive to the control and reduction of carbon emissions in local and adjacent areas;(2)there is a positive self-reinforcing mechanism between diversification agglomeration and carbon emissions,and a negative self-reinforcing mechanism between specialization agglomeration and carbon emissions.Based on the conclusions mentioned above,it is suggested that the national carbon emissions trading system should be improved accelerately and diversification of agglomeration should be promoted pre-ferentially.Beside these,it is also necessary to strengthen joint prevention and control on carbon emissions among regions.
The relationship between specialized,diversified industrial agglomeration and carbon emission is analyzed theoretically through expanding the basic STIRPAT model and then the causal inferences are conducted with panel data of 281 cities in china during 2004 to 2017.The study finds that:(1)the impact of industrial agglomeration on carbon emissions has simultaneous,anticipatory and spillover effects.Decreasing the degree of specialization agglomeration and increasing the degree of diversification agglomeration are conducive to the control and reduction of carbon emissions in local and adjacent areas;(2)there is a positive self-reinforcing mechanism between diversification agglomeration and carbon emissions,and a negative self-reinforcing mechanism between specialization agglomeration and carbon emissions.Based on the conclusions mentioned above,it is suggested that the national carbon emissions trading system should be improved accelerately and diversification of agglomeration should be promoted pre-ferentially.Beside these,it is also necessary to strengthen joint prevention and control on carbon emissions among regions.
引文
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[21]孙祥栋,张亮亮,赵峥.城市集聚经济的来源:专业化还是多样化[J].财经科学,2016,(2):113～122.
①天然气的CO2排放系数为2.1622千克/立方米,液化石油气的CO2排放系数为3.1013千克/千克,煤电燃料链温室气体折合等效CO2排放系数为1.3023千克/千瓦时。
[2]Verhoef E T,Nijkamp P.Externalities in Urban Sustainability:Environmental Versus Localization-Type Agglomeration Externalities in a General Spatial Equilibrium Model of a Single-Sector Mono-centric Industrial City[J].Ecological Economics,2002,40(2):157～179.
[3]Duc T A.Experimental Investigation and Modeling Approach of The Impact of Urban Wastewater on a Tropical River:A Case Study of the Nhue River,Hanoi,Vietnam[J].Journal of Hydrology,2007,33(4):347～358.
[4]Krugman P.Space:the Final Frontier[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,1998,12(2):161～74.
[5]Ehrenfeld J.Putting a Spotlight on Metaphors and Analogies in Industrial Ecology[J].Journal of Industrial Ecology,2003,7(1):1～4.
[6]陈建军,胡晨光.产业集聚的集聚效应[J].管理世界,2008,(6):68～83.
[7]陆铭,冯皓.集聚与减排:城市规模差距影响工业污染强度的经验研究[J].世界经济,2014,37(7):86～114.
[8]闫逢柱,苏李,乔娟.产业集聚发展与环境污染关系的考察[J].科学学研究,2011,29(1):79～83,120.
[9]雷海,王皓,朱明侠.产业集聚、能源消耗与环境污染[J].工业技术经济,2017,36(9):58～64.
[10]李筱乐.市场化、工业集聚和环境污染的实证分析[J].统计研究,2014,31(8):39～45.
[11]Dietz T,Rosa E A.Rethinking the Environmental Impacts of Population,Affluence and Technology[J].Human Ecology Review,1994,(1):277～300.
[12]Cerulli G.Econometric Evaluation of Socio-Economic Programs:Theory and Applications[M].German:Springer,2018:193～197.
[13]Wooldridge J M.On Two Stage Least Squares Estimation of the Average Treatment Effect in a Random Coefficient Model[J].Economics Letters,1997,56:129～133.
[14]Ezcurra R,Pascual P,Rapun M.Regional Specialization in the European Union[J].Regional Studies,2006,40(6):601～616.
[15]韩峰,谢锐.生产性服务业集聚降低碳排放了吗?[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017,34(3):40～58.
[16]Angris J D,Pischke J S.Mostly Harmless Econometrics:An Empiricist's Companion[M].Princeton,NJ:Princeton University Press,2008:175～180.
[17]Glaeser E,Kallal H,Scheinkman J,Shleifer A.Growth in Cities[J].The Journal of Political Economy,1992,100(6):1126～1152.
[18]Jacobs J.The Economy of Cities[M].New-York:Vintage,1969:5～61.
[19]Wang P.Competitive Equibrium Formation of Marketplaces with Heterogeneous Consumers[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,1990,20(2):295～304.
[20]李金滟,宋德勇.专业化、多样化与城市集聚经济[J].管理世界,2008,(2):25～34.
[21]孙祥栋,张亮亮,赵峥.城市集聚经济的来源:专业化还是多样化[J].财经科学,2016,(2):113～122.
①天然气的CO2排放系数为2.1622千克/立方米,液化石油气的CO2排放系数为3.1013千克/千克,煤电燃料链温室气体折合等效CO2排放系数为1.3023千克/千瓦时。
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