锡林河流域1981-2016年干湿变化及其与温度的关系
|
摘要
为了探清锡林河流域历年干湿变化情况,利用锡林河流域1981—2016年共36年的降水与气温的逐月数据,在全年尺度和季节尺度上分析了36年来的降水与气温的时间变化,并计算了各月不同时间尺度(SPI1,SPI3,SPI6,SPI12)下的标准化降水指数,分析了气温与SPI的相关性、不同时间尺度SPI的敏感性和干湿事件的年际变化,根据逐月SPI序列,在牧草生育期内分离出不同月份的逐年序列来分析了生育期内SPI的变化情况。结果表明:(1)多年来年降水量的整体变化趋势极不明显,降水量年内分配不均匀,夏季占总降水量的一半还多;气温的年际变化比较显著且呈上升的趋势。(2)随着时间尺度的增加,SPI序列上升趋势减弱、波动频率减小、旱涝的起止时间延后。在各等级干湿事件发生频次来看,重涝、中涝、重旱与中旱事件表现出了明显的年际变化,而轻涝与轻旱事件每年均有发生,年际变化不明显。(3)生育期内5月、6月、10月SPI序列呈现出上升的趋势,而7月、8月、9月则呈现出下降趋势,说明春末夏初更为湿润,夏季整体偏旱,进入秋季则呈现出由涝变旱的趋势变化。(4)干湿事件与5月份和12月份的气温呈现出的是正相关关系,其他各月呈现出的均为负相关关系,且1月、6月、7月、8月、11月呈现出极显著的负相关关系。
In order to find out the drought and moist changes over the years in the Xilin River Basin,using the monthly data of precipitation and temperature in the Xilin River Basin for a total of 36 years from 1981 to2016,we analyzed the temporal variation of precipitation and temperature in 36 years on annual and seasonal scales.The standardized precipitation indexes at different temporal scales(SPI1,SPI3,SPI6,SPI12)for each month were calculated.The correlation between temperature and SPI,the sensitivity of SPI at different time scales,and the inter-annual variation of drought and moist events were analyzed.According to the monthly SPI sequence,the year-by-year sequence of different months was separated during the growth period of pasture to analyze the changes of SPI during the growth period.The results showed that:(1)the overall change trend of annual precipitation over the years was extremely inconspicuous with uneven distribution of precipitation during the year,precipitation in summer accounted for more than half of the total precipitation;the inter-annual temperature change was more significant and presented the upward trend;(2)with the increase of tempoal scale,the rising trend of SPI series weakened,the frequency of fluctuation decreased,and the start and end times of drought and flood were delayed;in terms of frequency of occurrence of drought and moist events at each level,severe and moderate drought and moist events showed significant inter annual changes,while mild drought and moist events occurred every year with no significant inter annual changes;(3)during the growth period,the SPI sequence showed the upward trend in May,June and October,while it showed the downward trend in July,August and September.It showed that it was more humid at the end of spring and early summer,it was generally dry in the summer,and it showed the trend of shift from wetness to drought in the fall;(4)the drought and moist events were positively correlated with temperature in May and December,and negatively correlated with temperature in the other months,the significant negative correlation between the drought andmoist events and temperature was found in January,June,July,August and November.
In order to find out the drought and moist changes over the years in the Xilin River Basin,using the monthly data of precipitation and temperature in the Xilin River Basin for a total of 36 years from 1981 to2016,we analyzed the temporal variation of precipitation and temperature in 36 years on annual and seasonal scales.The standardized precipitation indexes at different temporal scales(SPI1,SPI3,SPI6,SPI12)for each month were calculated.The correlation between temperature and SPI,the sensitivity of SPI at different time scales,and the inter-annual variation of drought and moist events were analyzed.According to the monthly SPI sequence,the year-by-year sequence of different months was separated during the growth period of pasture to analyze the changes of SPI during the growth period.The results showed that:(1)the overall change trend of annual precipitation over the years was extremely inconspicuous with uneven distribution of precipitation during the year,precipitation in summer accounted for more than half of the total precipitation;the inter-annual temperature change was more significant and presented the upward trend;(2)with the increase of tempoal scale,the rising trend of SPI series weakened,the frequency of fluctuation decreased,and the start and end times of drought and flood were delayed;in terms of frequency of occurrence of drought and moist events at each level,severe and moderate drought and moist events showed significant inter annual changes,while mild drought and moist events occurred every year with no significant inter annual changes;(3)during the growth period,the SPI sequence showed the upward trend in May,June and October,while it showed the downward trend in July,August and September.It showed that it was more humid at the end of spring and early summer,it was generally dry in the summer,and it showed the trend of shift from wetness to drought in the fall;(4)the drought and moist events were positively correlated with temperature in May and December,and negatively correlated with temperature in the other months,the significant negative correlation between the drought andmoist events and temperature was found in January,June,July,August and November.
引文
[1]卢洪健,朱冰,胡智丹,等.东北地区植被动态对气象干旱的响应特征研究[J].人民珠江,2018,39(3):26-30.
[2]马柱国,符淙斌.1951—2004年中国北方干旱化的基本事实[J].科学通报,2006,51(20):2429-2439.
[3]高涛,肖苏君,乌兰.近47年(1961—2007年)内蒙古地区降水和气温的时空变化特征[J].内蒙古气象,2009(1):3-7.
[4]李兴华,陈素华.内蒙古草地干旱损失评估方法研究[J].草业科学,2012,29(7):1033-1038.
[5]孙远斌.2014年全国旱灾及抗旱行动情况[J].中国防汛抗旱,2015,25(1):21-24.
[6] Seiler R A,M Hayes,L Bressan.Using the standardized precipitation index for flood risk monitoring[J].International Journal of Climatology,2002,22(11):1365-1376.
[7]王文,陈林.标准化降水蒸散指数在中国干旱监测的适用性分析[J].高原气象,2014,33(2):423-431.
[8]翟禄新,冯起.基于SPI的西北地区气候干湿变化[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(5):847-857.
[9]熊光洁.近50年中国西南地区不同时间尺度干旱气候变化特征及成因研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2013.
[10]闫峰,王艳娇,吴波,等.近50年河北省干旱时空分布特征[J].地理研究,2010,29(3):423-430.
[11]段超宇.基于SWAT模型的锡林河流域融雪径流模拟研究[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古农业大学,2014.
[12]陈素华,闫伟兄,乌兰巴特尔,等.干旱对内蒙古草原牧草生物量损失的评估方法研究[J].草业科学,2009,26(5):32-37.
[13]袁文平,周广胜.标准化降水指标与Z指数在我国应用的对比分析[J].植物生态学报,2004,28(4):523-529.
[14]张强,邹旭凯,肖凤劲,等.GB/T20481-2006气象干旱等级[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2006:1-17.
[15] Patel N R,Chopra P,Dadhwal V K.Analyzing spatial patterns of meteorological drought using standardized precipitation index[J].Meteorological Applications,2010,14(4):329-336.
[16]张苗苗.基于SPI的近51a晋北地区旱涝变化及干旱事件时空特征研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2018,32(3):138-144.
[17]车少静,李春强,申双和.基于SPI的近41年(1965—2005)河北省旱涝时空特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(1):137-143.
[18]刘漩.气候条件对典型草原牧草生长发育及产量的影响[J].吉林农业,2017(14):99-99.
[2]马柱国,符淙斌.1951—2004年中国北方干旱化的基本事实[J].科学通报,2006,51(20):2429-2439.
[3]高涛,肖苏君,乌兰.近47年(1961—2007年)内蒙古地区降水和气温的时空变化特征[J].内蒙古气象,2009(1):3-7.
[4]李兴华,陈素华.内蒙古草地干旱损失评估方法研究[J].草业科学,2012,29(7):1033-1038.
[5]孙远斌.2014年全国旱灾及抗旱行动情况[J].中国防汛抗旱,2015,25(1):21-24.
[6] Seiler R A,M Hayes,L Bressan.Using the standardized precipitation index for flood risk monitoring[J].International Journal of Climatology,2002,22(11):1365-1376.
[7]王文,陈林.标准化降水蒸散指数在中国干旱监测的适用性分析[J].高原气象,2014,33(2):423-431.
[8]翟禄新,冯起.基于SPI的西北地区气候干湿变化[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(5):847-857.
[9]熊光洁.近50年中国西南地区不同时间尺度干旱气候变化特征及成因研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2013.
[10]闫峰,王艳娇,吴波,等.近50年河北省干旱时空分布特征[J].地理研究,2010,29(3):423-430.
[11]段超宇.基于SWAT模型的锡林河流域融雪径流模拟研究[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古农业大学,2014.
[12]陈素华,闫伟兄,乌兰巴特尔,等.干旱对内蒙古草原牧草生物量损失的评估方法研究[J].草业科学,2009,26(5):32-37.
[13]袁文平,周广胜.标准化降水指标与Z指数在我国应用的对比分析[J].植物生态学报,2004,28(4):523-529.
[14]张强,邹旭凯,肖凤劲,等.GB/T20481-2006气象干旱等级[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2006:1-17.
[15] Patel N R,Chopra P,Dadhwal V K.Analyzing spatial patterns of meteorological drought using standardized precipitation index[J].Meteorological Applications,2010,14(4):329-336.
[16]张苗苗.基于SPI的近51a晋北地区旱涝变化及干旱事件时空特征研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2018,32(3):138-144.
[17]车少静,李春强,申双和.基于SPI的近41年(1965—2005)河北省旱涝时空特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(1):137-143.
[18]刘漩.气候条件对典型草原牧草生长发育及产量的影响[J].吉林农业,2017(14):99-99.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |